A Realistic View at 2021: Part I

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Don't forget the space.

 

... between now and the last significant addition to the MLB roster (though I like Verdugo, we all know that was a subtraction)?

 

Was it Eovaldi, summer of '18... though he and Steve Pearce were intended as supplementary pieces at the time of their acquisitions? How about: JD Martinez, nearly three years ago?

[notin]

... between now and the last significant addition to the MLB roster (though I like Verdugo, we all know that was a subtraction)?

 

Was it Eovaldi, summer of '18... though he and Steve Pearce were intended as supplementary pieces at the time of their acquisitions? How about: JD Martinez, nearly three years ago?

 

DD spent his post-2019 budget extending oft-injured pitchers and Bogaerts. Last off-season was null and void.

 

This year has also been a bit of a dud. I don't consider any of Richards, Hernandez or Renfroe to be game changers.

 

The only psositive is I don't think anyone thought any of Napoli, Drew, Victorino, Dempster and Uehara were going to put a last place team over the top, either...

[notin]

And Payamps gets the DFA. We hardly knew ye...

[mvp 78]

And Payamps gets the DFA. We hardly knew ye...

 

Perez to get on 40 man or wait until Sale can go on IL?

[moonslav59]

Brice and Springs keep holdin' on.

 

Brice has no options, so I have to think, when pitchers come off the IL, he'll be toast.

[mvp 78]

Brice and Springs keep holdin' on.

 

Brice has no options, so I have to think, when pitchers come off the IL, he'll be toast.

 

They like Brice's spin rate. I don't like the spin rate of the ball coming off the bats he faces.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

DD spent his post-2019 budget extending oft-injured pitchers and Bogaerts. Last off-season was null and void.

 

This year has also been a bit of a dud. I don't consider any of Richards, Hernandez or Renfroe to be game changers.

 

The only psositive is I don't think anyone thought any of Napoli, Drew, Victorino, Dempster and Uehara were going to put a last place team over the top, either...

 

Admittedly, you have pointed out the one offseason in the history of the franchise that the Red Sox signed a bunch of decent players with one or tool quality assets each that collaborated to produce a world title. That glass was more than half full if we acknowledge that all of those guys named were past All-Stars or received MVP votes before '13... except Koji, whose peripherals show he was still very good (sub 1 WHIP).

 

This Sox 2021 team has only added complementary pieces: Renfroe, Andriese and Hernandez -- three more part-timers to a last-place club who recently told fans to forget about seeing much of our rehabbing staff ace this summer... since there will be no logical reason to expedite his comeback.

[moonslav59]

Admittedly, you have pointed out the one offseason in the history of the franchise that the Red Sox signed a bunch of decent players with one or tool quality assets each that collaborated to produce a world title. That glass was more than half full if we acknowledge that all of those guys named were past All-Stars or received MVP votes before '13... except Koji, whose peripherals show he was still very good (sub 1 WHIP).

 

This Sox 2021 team has only added complementary pieces: Renfroe, Andriese and Hernandez -- three more part-timers to a last-place club who recently told fans to forget about seeing much of our rehabbing staff ace this summer... since there will be no logical reason to expedite his comeback.

 

Very good points.

 

I will add that although Richards never made the All Star team or finished high in any CY Young votes, he has a history of being better than just a "complimentary piece."

[moonslav59]

They like Brice's spin rate. I don't like the spin rate of the ball coming off the bats he faces.

 

No matter how you spin it, he's a replacement level pitcher, if ever there was one.

[Bellhorn04]

Another day in Snoreville.

[moonslav59]

Another day in Snoreville.

 

For us, yes.

 

Wong and Colome are off the boards.

[kenmeister]

For us, yes.

 

Wong and Colome are off the boards.

 

Oh no!!!

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

For us, yes.

 

Wong and Colome are off the boards.

 

The Red Sox were reportedly interested in seeing these contract terms to find out how much they saved by not signing them. The analytics dept. is busy adding up the money spent this offseason by the rest of the MLB, and will celebrate the final dollar amount on twitter... then they'll take it down.

[moonslav59]

The Red Sox were reportedly interested in seeing these contract terms to find out how much they saved by not signing them. The analytics dept. is busy adding up the money spent this offseason by the rest of the MLB, and will celebrate the final dollar amount on twitter... then they'll take it down.

 

LOL!

 

That being said, we will still be a top 3 or 4 spending team in 2021.

 

We may still have some spending to do.

[notin]

LOL!

 

That being said, we will still be a top 3 or 4 spending team in 2021.

 

We may still have some spending to do.

 

That would be great if true.

 

Bloom's goal should be to finish the outfield and do what it takes to push Brice and Valdez out of the opening day bullpen. This does mean DFAing Brice, but I am ok with that. As is everyone except maybe Austin Brice and his wife...

[Nick]

DD spent his post-2019 budget extending oft-injured pitchers and Bogaerts. Last off-season was null and void.

 

This year has also been a bit of a dud. I don't consider any of Richards, Hernandez or Renfroe to be game changers.

 

The only psositive is I don't think anyone thought any of Napoli, Drew, Victorino, Dempster and Uehara were going to put a last place team over the top, either...

 

Uehara was big surprise....

[moonslav59]

That would be great if true.

 

Bloom's goal should be to finish the outfield and do what it takes to push Brice and Valdez out of the opening day bullpen. This does mean DFAing Brice, but I am ok with that. As is everyone except maybe Austin Brice and his wife...

 

I think we are already the third highest spending budget team, as of now.

 

We may be done spending, this winter, and are saving any budget space for the summer, but I'm thinking there may be some real bargains coming up, and why not pick up a few. We could also end up trading them for decent prospects at the deadline.

 

I think signing Schoop and moving EHern primarily to CF would be enough to solve the OF situation for opening day. We could also add a cheapy like Marisnick or some other near min wage defensive OF'er.

 

I doubt we are even kicking the tires on Rosenthal or any other costly RP'er. (I'm starting to wonder about the Ottavino deal, when I see what Colome and other good RP'ers signed for.)

[moonslav59]

Uehara was big surprise....

 

He shouldn't have been, except that he was never really tried in the closer role.

 

He was one of baseball's best set-up men for 2-3 years before 2013.

 

Year WHIP K/BB

2010 0.955 11.0

2011 0.723 9.4

2012 0.639 14.3

2013 0.565 11.2

2014 0.917 10.0

2015 0.917 5.2

 

His biggest drop in WHIP came between 2011 and 2012. His best K/BB rate was in 2012. One could argue that was his best career year.

 

That 0.639 WHIP in 2012 was better than any season from Mo Rivera.

[notin]

I think we are already the third highest spending budget team, as of now.

 

We may be done spending, this winter, and are saving any budget space for the summer, but I'm thinking there may be some real bargains coming up, and why not pick up a few. We could also end up trading them for decent prospects at the deadline.

 

I think signing Schoop and moving EHern primarily to CF would be enough to solve the OF situation for opening day. We could also add a cheapy like Marisnick or some other near min wage defensive OF'er.

 

I doubt we are even kicking the tires on Rosenthal or any other costly RP'er. (I'm starting to wonder about the Ottavino deal, when I see what Colome and other good RP'ers signed for.)

 

The Ottavino deal was not so much about Ottavino.

 

And if they make Ottavino the closer, I am fine with that. Last year, his horrific ERA is basically from 2 of his 22 appearances. He allowed 1 ER or less in the other 20, including 17 appearances of 0 ER.

 

But if they want to avoid costly relievers like Rosenthal or Melancon, they could still add much cheaper arms like Yusmeiro Petit, Sergio Romo, Brandon Workman, or Keone Kela.

 

The Hernandez to CF thing would be a surprise, but certaily it appears that it would be one with merit.

 

Most of the 2B and OF options remaining have an OPS+ in the 93-98 range since 2018, including Schoop. Ozuna is the clear leader in that time frame with his 120. The only 3 players I have found above 100 outside of Ozuna are Yasiel Puig (108), Brian Goodwin (102) , Danny Santana (101) and Nick Markakis (106). Now, Puig did not play in 2020 and Goodwin and Santana both have limited time in starting roles. And Markakis is 37 already, and his his number is carried more so by his 2018 than the recent years, as his OPS has gone down in each of the past 2 seasons.

 

So who is the best option? The Sox could sign either a 2B or an OF. Or go with Michael Chavis, whose OPS+ is 88 and therefore the worse than most that I looked at. (Unless you count Jake Marisnick and his OPS+ of 86.) But Chavis is also only 25...

[notin]

If the Sox signed Sergio Romo (4.34 ERA in 2020, but like Ottavino, the bulk of the runs came in 2 appearances) and, say Brian Goodwin for RF, that could possibly keep them under the tax limit with a little room to spare and increase the watch-ability of this team.

 

My big problem is it puts this team in basically the same position after 2021...

[mvp 78]

If the Sox signed Sergio Romo (4.34 ERA in 2020, but like Ottavino, the bulk of the runs came in 2 appearances) and, say Brian Goodwin for RF, that could possibly keep them under the tax limit with a little room to spare and increase the watch-ability of this team.

 

My big problem is it puts this team in basically the same position after 2021...

 

So the question would be, at one point will the Sox go over the lux tax again?

[notin]

So the question would be, at one point will the Sox go over the lux tax again?

 

Go over it now. Sign Odorizzi and Ozuna and call it an off-season, barring any minor tweaks.

 

Otherwise next year, we will be in the same position...

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Go over it now. Sign Odorizzi and Ozuna and call it an off-season, barring any minor tweaks.

 

Otherwise next year, we will be in the same position...

 

This has been my point all offseason. Rebuilds have to start adding actual MLB TALENT sometime (if I could get my post commands back, I'd boldface your last line and the word "talent")... especially in a winter where a lot has been available.

[notin]

This has been my point all offseason. Rebuilds have to start adding actual MLB TALENT sometime (if I could get my post commands back, I'd boldface your last line and the word "talent")... especially in a winter where a lot has been available.

 

It makes me miss Ben Cherington. You didn't see him warm bodies after a last place finish. And he managed to improve the farm system at the same time.

 

Not everyone BC signed worked out, but at least he did not only look in the basement...

[moonslav59]

The Ottavino deal was not so much about Ottavino.

 

And if they make Ottavino the closer, I am fine with that. Last year, his horrific ERA is basically from 2 of his 22 appearances. He allowed 1 ER or less in the other 20, including 17 appearances of 0 ER.

 

But if they want to avoid costly relievers like Rosenthal or Melancon, they could still add much cheaper arms like Yusmeiro Petit, Sergio Romo, Brandon Workman, or Keone Kela.

 

The Hernandez to CF thing would be a surprise, but certaily it appears that it would be one with merit.

 

Most of the 2B and OF options remaining have an OPS+ in the 93-98 range since 2018, including Schoop. Ozuna is the clear leader in that time frame with his 120. The only 3 players I have found above 100 outside of Ozuna are Yasiel Puig (108), Brian Goodwin (102) , Danny Santana (101) and Nick Markakis (106). Now, Puig did not play in 2020 and Goodwin and Santana both have limited time in starting roles. And Markakis is 37 already, and his his number is carried more so by his 2018 than the recent years, as his OPS has gone down in each of the past 2 seasons.

 

So who is the best option? The Sox could sign either a 2B or an OF. Or go with Michael Chavis, whose OPS+ is 88 and therefore the worse than most that I looked at. (Unless you count Jake Marisnick and his OPS+ of 86.) But Chavis is also only 25...

 

I think Ozuna would cost too much and doesn't solve the CF defense issue.

 

I still think Schoop and one of the cheaper RP'er options you mentioned might be the most realistic and possible scenario we can expect. A Pillar and RP'er signing is equally possible.

[moonslav59]

If the Sox signed Sergio Romo (4.34 ERA in 2020, but like Ottavino, the bulk of the runs came in 2 appearances) and, say Brian Goodwin for RF, that could possibly keep them under the tax limit with a little room to spare and increase the watch-ability of this team.

 

My big problem is it puts this team in basically the same position after 2021...

 

Agreed. We have basically punted all decisions until next winter. EHern will be back, if not traded, and Richards has an option for 1 more year. We have done nothing for the longer term.

[notin]

I think Ozuna would cost too much and doesn't solve the CF defense issue.

 

I still think Schoop and one of the cheaper RP'er options you mentioned might be the most realistic and possible scenario we can expect. A Pillar and RP'er signing is equally possible.

 

Oh I think Ozuna is unlikely, but he shouldn't be. Sure the defense will suffer, but so will opposing pitching.

 

Schoop is an unexciting addition that makes sense, but only if the Sox do plan on moving Kike to CF. Now Puig is an exciting addition that makes sense and may cost about the same. But then, not all excitement is good excitement, as Yasiel has proven repeatedly.

 

I've thrown Josh Reddick';s name out there, largele because 1) he does not suck and 2) no one seems to want him. I can't find a single rumor about him. Odd because he is a league average (maybe a tad below) hitter who plays above average defense in RF. and hits left-handed. Maybe the last two years of his reverse platoon splits have turned off anyone looking to platoon him.

 

But then another guy who is younger, better in the OF, and hits LH, can play CF and is a slightly ABOVE league average hitter is Brian Goodwin. Goodwin hits LHP and RHP about the same, but still could make for a decent platoon with Renfroe in RF. As could Nick Markakis, who is clearly no longer a full time OF, but unfortunately is also more likely to retire than join Boston.

[moonslav59]

Oh I think Ozuna is unlikely, but he shouldn't be. Sure the defense will suffer, but so will opposing pitching.

 

Schoop is an unexciting addition that makes sense, but only if the Sox do plan on moving Kike to CF. Now Puig is an exciting addition that makes sense and may cost about the same. But then, not all excitement is good excitement, as Yasiel has proven repeatedly.

 

I've thrown Josh Reddick';s name out there, largele because 1) he does not suck and 2) no one seems to want him. I can't find a single rumor about him. Odd because he is a league average (maybe a tad below) hitter who plays above average defense in RF. and hits left-handed. Maybe the last two years of his reverse platoon splits have turned off anyone looking to platoon him.

 

But then another guy who is younger, better in the OF, and hits LH, can play CF and is a slightly ABOVE league average hitter is Brian Goodwin. Goodwin hits LHP and RHP about the same, but still could make for a decent platoon with Renfroe in RF. As could Nick Markakis, who is clearly no longer a full time OF, but unfortunately is also more likely to retire than join Boston.

 

I do think adding a lefty bat would be helpful, but to me, I like the idea of getting someone to play CF, even if it is EHern by adding a 2Bman.

 

I think Verdugo is best in RF.

I like a Beni-Renfroe platoon in LF both for defense and offensive reasons.

EHern may not be very good on defense at 2B.

 

Markakis could be an option. He's been over .800 vs RHP most of his career (.806 career and .816 in 2019).

 

Reddick allows for a partial platoon in LF and RF as we choose the best two from Beni-Renfroe-Reddick each game.

 

I like Ozuna, and maybe he's worth going over the tax line for and as a longer term player. (You think he will insist on 2 or 3+ years?)

 

As much as I think pitching is still our biggest weakness, I keep thinking about Schoop or Pillar as the most likely additions we might see.

[notin]

I think Schoop is unlikely, because I think EHern in CF is unlikely. But I also think it is a good idea.

 

If I had to think of players the Sox most likely add, the list includes Moreland, Workman, Romo, Pillar, Miller, and Almora, and the next tier is players like Brian Goodwin, Tyler Naquin, Jake Lamb and maybe Ben Gamel.

 

Obviously I do not expect all of them. 3 at most. But 4 would be ideal if two of them were Workman and Romo.

[jad]

Did Moon just really use the phrase "third-highest spending budget team" as a form of praise?