A Realistic View at 2019: Part I

[vegasbob]

Maybe after the season, the Sox can think about Benintendi’s future in Boston. At the deadline, I doubt they do anything drastic to the lineup.

 

If the Sox actually had an outfield prospect within a mile of an MLB debut, things might be different...

 

Notin, agree with you on this one. The mystery is more why there are no big time OF prospects at the AAA level . On one hand the Betts/Bradley/Benintendi emergences over the last 4 years have blocked any need for organizational growth here but that doesn't stop talented young players from advancing themselves , right up to the point where DD would be inclined to trade them .

[notin]

Scherzer is owed $90.73MM (not counting AAV, which is $28.689MM). Verlander was owed about $60.75MM (guaranteed) at the time of the trade, plus Detroit sent $8MM to Astros, so the financial hit was about $52.75MM

(Source: Cot's Baseball Contarcts)

 

Based on this, Scherzer won't be worth two top 100 prospects, unless some serious cash is involved.

 

I see your point regarding WAR difference, but Verlander had two rough years and at the time of the trade he was back at the top of his game.

 

 

Do the Yankees have two top 100 prospects? They had none in the BA pre-season rankings...

[Carpin]

Do the Yankees have two top 100 prospects? They had none in the BA pre-season rankings...

 

Not in BA

 

but depending of the site you can find 2 or 3, let's wait for the midseason lists

[bkzwhitestrican]

Florial, Deivi Garcia, Gil, and Loaisaga are all around Top 100ish. Probably none of them would be in the top 50 though.

 

Pereira, Seigler, and Cabello have a shot at being top 100 by year end depending on how they perform the next few months.

Edited June 21, 2019 by bkzwhitestrican

[harmony]

Do the Yankees have two top 100 prospects? They had none in the BA pre-season rankings...

The occasionally updated MLB Prospect Watch list has Estevan Florial at No. 48 and Jonathan Loaisiga at No. 98:

 

http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2019?list=nyy

[harmony]

Until they’re no longer in it, which most people suspect will happen. A lot can happen over the next 5 weeks.

 

The idea of the Rangers trading Minor is not an original thought on my part...

If the Red Sox are no longer in the race, their strategy changes as well.

 

The Red Sox have the advantage of playing in the same division as the Baltimore Orioles and Toronto Blue Jays while the Texas Rangers play in the more balanced AL West.

 

FiveThirtyEight projects the AL East to finished a cumulative 16 games below .500 (despite the Yankees, Rays and Red Sox) while projecting the AL West to finish a cumulative 26 games above .500:

 

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2019-mlb-predictions/

 

The updated ZiPS projections find a similar disparity between the two divisions:

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-zips-almost-midseason-update-american-league/

 

The AL West may have the tougher interleague asssignment this year with the NL Central while the AL East gets the NL West.

Edited June 21, 2019 by harmony

[notin]

If the Red Sox are no longer in the race, their strategy changes as well.

 

 

... which is immaterial when I was taking about Minor as a Yankee trade acquisition. The Sox likely can’t afford him prospect-wise...

[moonslav59]

We'll be "in it."

 

My guess is we look for 1-2 decent pitchers who have some salary dump dimension to them, but who do not cost enough that their pro-rated deals put us over the max line.

 

I look back to the Addison Reed and Nathan Eovaldi type deals as ones we may try to look for.

[jacksonianmarch]

You cannot “salary dump” and stay under the final number. I guarantee you DD isn’t going to intentionally cross the final barrier unless he absolutely has to. You’re not gonna cross that line without adding a significant piece.

 

Also, the lineup for London looks like

 

Erod vs Tanaka

Porcello vs Happ

 

Price and Sale will be used before the series and would be on short or no rest. Johnson’s spit would be due but because of the two days off before, ERod could throw on full rest.

 

For us, Tanaka is our best pitcher currently. Paxton will be used on our travel day, so he’s out and probably won’t even travel with the team. It’s either Happ or CC, both are good plays vs the Sox who struggle vs lefties

[Bellhorn04]

You cannot “salary dump” and stay under the final number. I guarantee you DD isn’t going to intentionally cross the final barrier unless he absolutely has to. You’re not gonna cross that line without adding a significant piece.

 

They crossed the top threshold last year when they added Eovaldi, Kinsler and Pearce.

[notin]

You cannot “salary dump” and stay under the final number. I guarantee you DD isn’t going to intentionally cross the final barrier unless he absolutely has to. You’re not gonna cross that line without adding a significant piece.

 

 

Well, you also guaranteed the Sox would add a closer and Steve Pearce would get 4 years $36mill.

 

 

The Sox will cross the final barrier if it is the best overall move. They crossed all the other barriers. Why stop now?

[jacksonianmarch]

They crossed the top threshold last year when they added Eovaldi, Kinsler and Pearce.

 

And from the sounds of it, crossing the barrier was an accident. They went over by such a small amount that it wasn’t worth the price. I’m sure they could have gotten an extra mil out of the Angels in the Kinsler deal without adding much of co sequence and you’d still have won the title

[notin]

And from the sounds of it, crossing the barrier was an accident. They went over by such a small amount that it wasn’t worth the price. I’m sure they could have gotten an extra mil out of the Angels in the Kinsler deal without adding much of co sequence and you’d still have won the title

 

 

So you’re saying they DON’T pay attention to it?

[Maxbialystock]

Notin, agree with you on this one. The mystery is more why there are no big time OF prospects at the AAA level . On one hand the Betts/Bradley/Benintendi emergences over the last 4 years have blocked any need for organizational growth here but that doesn't stop talented young players from advancing themselves , right up to the point where DD would be inclined to trade them .

 

I think most people agree DD's primary interest in prospects is as trade bait. That said, all three starting Sox outfielders were in fact Sox prospects of at least went thru the Sox minor league system.

[Bellhorn04]

And from the sounds of it, crossing the barrier was an accident. They went over by such a small amount that it wasn’t worth the price.

 

What???

 

They won the World Series and it cost them an extra mill or two? Are you freaking serious?

[Maxbialystock]

And from the sounds of it, crossing the barrier was an accident. They went over by such a small amount that it wasn’t worth the price. I’m sure they could have gotten an extra mil out of the Angels in the Kinsler deal without adding much of co sequence and you’d still have won the title

 

You do realize, I hope, that all three--Kinsler, Pearce, and Eovaldi-- helped the Sox win 108 and then 11 of 14 in the postseason. So my guess is that John Henry was pretty happy with the return on investment, including crossing the barrier.

 

I am not at all a fan of spending the big bucks and believe that, more often than not, they are ill spent. The Yankees and Sox have both been prey to that excess recently, but of course both franchises are still making a good profit.

[Maxbialystock]

With apologies for straying from the current topic of trades and trade value, I would like to offer my June 22 "realistic view at 2019."

 

I think the 2018 Sox are back, but, as many--not I--said a month ago, they have already dug themselves a hole that will be hard to get out of.

 

That is, this team is definitely good enough to get into the postseason, but not good enough to overtake the Yankees who are playing amazingly well and are now more healthy than not.

 

If the Yankees simply maintain a winning percentage of .640 (their current percentage), they will win 104 games. The Sox would need to play at a .729 clip to get to 104 wins.

 

Of course, baseball being baseball, almost anything can happen. But this Yankees team is a lot like last year's team--great bullpen and good hitting and good enough rotation. So I just don't see them stumbling so the Sox can catch them, but that is what they must do for the Sox to win the AL East.

 

Strangely enough, I'm fine with that reality. I like that the AL East--including Tampa and, sadly, Baltimore--is a tough division. I also like the tough series, even though the Sox thus far have not fared well in them. My strong impression is that that 7 game lead by the Yankees is mostly because they have played well in the tough series, including the last five games/wins vs. the Rays and Astros.

Edited June 22, 2019 by Maxbialystock

[jacksonianmarch]

What???

 

They won the World Series and it cost them an extra mill or two? Are you freaking serious?

 

It cost them 10 spots in the draft.

[jacksonianmarch]

The 2018 Sox aren’t back. The 2018 Sox had transcendent performances by two player who this year are simply good. These two performed at such a high level that the other spots benefited from Betts and JDM essentially being pitched around. This year, you can pitch to both of them. Granted, they’re still good, they’re just not in the “crush pitchers pitches” category this year. Now Vaz and Devers have taken a step forward. JBJ and Beni have taken steps back.

 

Interestingly, the Sox have scored the same amount per game than last year. The thing your team was last year was consistent and I haven’t seen that to this point in the 2019 squad. They’ll drop 12 on the O’s then get shutdown vs TB or NY. The Sox are 5 games under vs .500+ teams at 17-22 (.435). They were 41-33 vs .500+ teams last year (.554). That’s the difference. The Sox were good vs good teams and excellent vs bad ones. The Sox are still excellent vs bad teams (not the same win percentage, but still great) but paper tigers vs the cream

[Nick]

It cost them 10 spots in the draft.

 

 

Seriously, after WINNING the World Series, and you're drafting 30th at best, what's another 10 spots below?

 

It's not as though we're dropping from top 10 to top 20.

[jacksonianmarch]

Seriously, after WINNING the World Series, and you're drafting 30th at best, what's another 10 spots below?

 

It's not as though we're dropping from top 10 to top 20.

 

What I’m saying is the Sox could have easily gotten an extra $1 mil in salary relief without hurting their squad for Kinsler. They went over by $400K or so

[Bellhorn04]

What I’m saying is the Sox could have easily gotten an extra $1 mil in salary relief without hurting their squad for Kinsler. They went over by $400K or so

 

Wrong.

 

They went over by about 2.5 million.

 

Their final tax bill was about 11.95 million.

 

First 20 million over @ 20% = 4 million

Next 20 million over @ 32% = 6.4 million

Last 2.5 million over @ 62.5% = 1.55 million

[dgalehouse]

It is interesting how many fans worry about saving some money for the owners . These are the same billionaire owners who fleece the fans in a way that used car salesmen have not yet even imagined.

[jacksonianmarch]

I don’t care about saving money. I do care about bringing in amateur talent

[Bellhorn04]

It is interesting how many fans worry about saving some money for the owners . These are the same billionaire owners who fleece the fans in a way that used car salesmen have not yet even imagined.

 

I don't think very many fans worry about saving money for the owners. They worry about the front office not spending wisely because they know that hurts the quality of the team on the field.

[oldtimer]

I don't think very many fans worry about saving money for the owners. They worry about the front office not spending wisely because they know that hurts the quality of the team on the field.

 

I agree with your point. We already are the highest spending team in baseball. One would hope that management can avoid the unwise decisions that penalize the team. Panda's contract was an example. I felt Pedroia's and Rameriz's contracts were both unwise as well. We know these contracts all have risks and just hope we apply due diligence when taking players on. So far we have gotten great results because we made enough good moves to counter the bad and we also spent enough to counteract our miscues.

[moonslav59]

What I’m saying is the Sox could have easily gotten an extra $1 mil in salary relief without hurting their squad for Kinsler. They went over by $400K or so

 

I don't think they intended to go over. The whole system is complicared, and I think they made a mistake.

 

They got Toronto to pay for part of Pearce's deal, I believe in an effort to stay under the max line.

[moonslav59]

It is interesting how many fans worry about saving some money for the owners . These are the same billionaire owners who fleece the fans in a way that used car salesmen have not yet even imagined.

 

I don't look at it that way.

 

I look at it from the perspective that the owner is trying to avoid paying taxes. Judging whether he should or not is a totally different debate.

 

Once it is pretty much established that our owner is NOT totally opening his wallet to pay players, then I look at the budget with a magnifying glass knowing our budget has limits.

[devildavid]

The 2018 Sox aren’t back. The 2018 Sox had transcendent performances by two player who this year are simply good. These two performed at such a high level that the other spots benefited from Betts and JDM essentially being pitched around. This year, you can pitch to both of them. Granted, they’re still good, they’re just not in the “crush pitchers pitches” category this year. Now Vaz and Devers have taken a step forward. JBJ and Beni have taken steps back.

 

Interestingly, the Sox have scored the same amount per game than last year. The thing your team was last year was consistent and I haven’t seen that to this point in the 2019 squad. They’ll drop 12 on the O’s then get shutdown vs TB or NY. The Sox are 5 games under vs .500+ teams at 17-22 (.435). They were 41-33 vs .500+ teams last year (.554). That’s the difference. The Sox were good vs good teams and excellent vs bad ones. The Sox are still excellent vs bad teams (not the same win percentage, but still great) but paper tigers vs the cream

 

Stop making me agree with a Yankees fan. Last season was a perfect storm of absolutely great performances from Mookie and JD. They have dropped off much more than I expected, as has Chris Sale to this point in the season. But if they make the playoffs, I still like their chances.

[Bellhorn04]

I don't think they intended to go over. The whole system is complicared, and I think they made a mistake.

 

They got Toronto to pay for part of Pearce's deal, I believe in an effort to stay under the max line.

 

I know it's complicated, but I doubt they made that big of a mistake, going over by 2.5 million.