A Realistic View at 2019: Part I

[notin]

It cost them 10 spots in the draft.

 

So you’re saying you’d rather draft 10 spots better than win the World Series?!?!

 

You must HATE the Yankees this year. Their draft position looks like it could be horrible!!

[vegasbob]

Since we are talking a Realistic View of 2019, get real. Say the Red Sox win the #1 or #2 WC and get to play one game to set up the ALDS series.

 

Even assuming Eovaldi is back and in good shape, along with regular rest for the other 4 starters (Price, Sale, Porcello and Rodriguez) , who do you start in a one game playoff, with the season on the line ? Even assume Sale has full physical capabilities and is not tired, since Cora rested him most of September. Who goes for you ?? Then who is first out of the pen when you have a one run lead opening the "clean" 7th inning ?

[S5Dewey]

Since we are talking a Realistic View of 2019, get real. Say the Red Sox win the #1 or #2 WC and get to play one game to set up the ALDS series.

 

Even assuming Eovaldi is back and in good shape, along with regular rest for the other 4 starters (Price, Sale, Porcello and Rodriguez) , who do you start in a one game playoff, with the season on the line ? Even assume Sale has full physical capabilities and is not tired, since Cora rested him most of September. Who goes for you ?? Then who is first out of the pen when you have a one run lead opening the "clean" 7th inning ?

 

This is but one of the reasons I'd like for the Sox to win the ALE and keep them out of a playoff game. Sometimes a team doesn't get a chance to set up their rotation - they have to try to keep winning to remain in the WC race and to do that they have to keep their rotation intact during the last few games of the season. We could end up with Velazquez starting the WC game! Eeeek! (or more realistically it could be Johnson).

 

Last year we had the luxury of coasting to the finish line and setting our rotation just the way we wanted it. We may not be as lucky in 2019.

[moonslav59]

Since we are talking a Realistic View of 2019, get real. Say the Red Sox win the #1 or #2 WC and get to play one game to set up the ALDS series.

 

Even assuming Eovaldi is back and in good shape, along with regular rest for the other 4 starters (Price, Sale, Porcello and Rodriguez) , who do you start in a one game playoff, with the season on the line ? Even assume Sale has full physical capabilities and is not tired, since Cora rested him most of September. Who goes for you ?? Then who is first out of the pen when you have a one run lead opening the "clean" 7th inning ?

 

Any one of the 4.

 

It might depend on how the end of the season lines up.

[moonslav59]

Steven Wright Nearing Activation

By Connor Byrne | June 22, 2019 at 9:26pm CDT

 

It’s “expected” the Red Sox will activate right-handed knuckleballer Steven Wright on Tuesday, Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com writes. Wright’s at the end of an 80-game suspension for performance-enhancing drug use. The Red Sox will need to clear a 40-man roster spot for Wright upon his return.

 

The 34-year-old Wright, a one-time All-Star, has mostly worked as a starter dating back to his 2013 debut. He has logged a 4.00 ERA/4.45 FIP with 6.91 K/9 and 3.18 BB/9 in 263 innings out of Boston’s rotation. Although the Red Sox may now need a starter after Chris Sale, David Price, Rick Porcello and Eduardo Rodriguez, it won’t be Wright. They’ll likely use him as a reliever, per Cotillo, as Wright’s also coming back from 2018 left knee surgery.

 

The Red Sox’s bullpen ranks an impressive fourth in the majors in ERA, fifth in FIP and ninth in K/BB ratio, but Wright still may be able to help the unit. Neither left-handed hitters nor righties have enjoyed a ton of success at Wright’s expense. Lefties have hit .237/.316/.359 off Wright, while righties have posted a .252/.321/.407 line against him.

[jacksonianmarch]

So you’re saying you’d rather draft 10 spots better than win the World Series?!?!

 

You must HATE the Yankees this year. Their draft position looks like it could be horrible!!

 

Not what I said at all. If there’s no other way, a title clearly trumps draft position. If we are only going over by $1-$2 mil, I’d add some ancillary talent to get under the threshold in the deals at the deadline.

 

Consider this, if the Yanks had a shot at Scherzer and getting him put us over the final hurdle, so be it. But if we get a 5th starter, platoon 1b and an infielder who isn’t very good, I’d ensure the sending team included money in the package to keep me under the final hurdle. It all depends on the acquisition. I read an article after the deadline and before the WS about the Sox passing the final hurdle and it sounded like an accident rather than a calculated move. Not sure if the article was valid or not

[Bellhorn04]

Since we are talking a Realistic View of 2019, get real. Say the Red Sox win the #1 or #2 WC and get to play one game to set up the ALDS series.

 

Even assuming Eovaldi is back and in good shape, along with regular rest for the other 4 starters (Price, Sale, Porcello and Rodriguez) , who do you start in a one game playoff, with the season on the line ? Even assume Sale has full physical capabilities and is not tired, since Cora rested him most of September. Who goes for you ?? Then who is first out of the pen when you have a one run lead opening the "clean" 7th inning ?

 

Gotta agree. The Yankees have buried us for the division and we're looking at the Wild Card route.

[bosoxmal]

Sumday AM and still feeling ill. I sat here as the 8th inning got under way thinking to myself, wouldn't it be nice if Sale came in from the Pen and and we could put this game in the W column right now.

 

Nope. We don't see thiss 4-5 inning pitcger until his next 4 or 5 inning start. When does the wishful thinking re/Sales, come to a ha;t/ He is the perfect lock down closer who will never again be a winning pitcher as a starting pitcher.

 

 

Even Eck thinks he's still an all star! And here is a professional anylist who went from a hard throwing starter (eract) to a lock down all star closer. Look in the mirror, Eck!

[harmony]

Gotta agree. The Yankees have buried us for the division and we're looking at the Wild Card route.

FiveThirtyEight gives the Red Sox an 11 percent chance of repeating as American League East champs:

 

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2019-mlb-predictions/

 

... while FanGraphs lists the Red Sox chances at 8.2 percent:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds

[notin]

FiveThirtyEight gives the Red Sox an 11 percent chance of repeating as American League East champs:

 

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2019-mlb-predictions/

 

... while FanGraphs lists the Red Sox chances at 8.2 percent:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds

 

 

Which are both the bet chances at repeating in all of MLB...

[harmony]

Which are both the bet chances at repeating in all of MLB...

Or the worst chances of repeating as divisional champs:

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/MLB/2018-standings.shtml

[Bellhorn04]

FiveThirtyEight gives the Red Sox an 11 percent chance of repeating as American League East champs:

 

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2019-mlb-predictions/

 

... while FanGraphs lists the Red Sox chances at 8.2 percent:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds

 

No offense, but of what possible use is this information? We all know it's highly unlikely at this juncture. Numbers like 11% and 8.2% could hardly be more meaningless.

 

11% suggests that if we get to play the next half-season 9 times, one of those times we'll win it!

[harmony]

No offense, but of what possible use is this information? We all know it's highly unlikely at this juncture. Numbers like 11% and 8.2% could hardly be more meaningless.

 

11% suggests that if we get to play the next half-season 9 times, one of those times we'll win it!

Anonymous posters to a baseball forum get confirmation from recognized quantitative sources.

[Bellhorn04]

Anonymous posters to a baseball forum get confirmation from recognized quantitative sources.

 

Confirmation of the obvious is not necessary. It's redundant, in fact, and thus a waste of time.

 

(I'm just giving you a hard time. )

[a700hitter]

This team reminds me of the 1976 squad that was loaded with talent, but the Achilles heel was losing games after the 7th inning. The Yankees were on a roll and the Sox couldn't get any consistency. They made a bold move buying Rollie Fingers that would have addressed the glaring need, but Bowie Kuhn invalidated the sale. I hope that he is rotting in hell.

[harmony]

Confirmation of the obvious is not necessary. It's redundant, in fact, and thus a waste of time.

 

(I'm just giving you a hard time. )

And I'm just giving you a hard time ... I always welcome your contributions (and criticisms).

[harmony]

The defending World Series champion Red Sox have matched the record after 79 games* of the 2012 Red Sox, who finished the season in last place at 69-93.

 

The Red Sox are two games better than the Chicago Cubs were after 79 games** in 2017 when the defending World Series champions finished 92-70, winning the NL Central and advancing to the National League Championship Series.

 

This year's fortunes should fall somewhere in between.

 

* the 2012 Sox achieved the 42-37 record in Seattle by topping the Mariners in a 10-inning Sunday afternoon game.

 

** The 2017 Cubs lost six of their next nine games to fall to 43-45 before mounting a comeback.

[dgalehouse]

I have heard it said that blowing a game that seemed like a sure win can be deflating to a team . I don't necessarily believe that , but the Sox sure looked deflated and flat today .

[notin]

The defending World Series champion Red Sox have matched the record after 79 games* of the 2012 Red Sox, who finished the season in last place at 69-93.

 

The Red Sox are two games better than the Chicago Cubs were after 79 games** in 2017 when the defending World Series champions finished 92-70, winning the NL Central and advancing to the National League Championship Series.

 

This year's fortunes should fall somewhere in between.

 

* the 2012 Sox achieved the 42-37 record in Seattle by topping the Mariners in a 10-inning Sunday afternoon game.

 

** The 2017 Cubs lost six of their next nine games to fall to 43-45 before mounting a comeback.

 

 

The 2012 Red Sox also had a massive fire-sale in August...

[vegasbob]

Is it accurate that this season is the last of Dombrowski's contract as president of BBO ? If so, does he get a new deal from ownership. I'm sure the majority would think , yes he does. The slippage in 2019 and lack of necessary housecleaning at the lower end of the 40 man roster after 2018's huge success needs to be evaluated. Did ownership ties his hands on budget/tax matters (very possible) or did DD envision some type of reset in 2020 , and coasted into 2019 thinking he had an automatic 100 game winner and playoff contender ?

 

One way or another someone fell asleep while the team has assembled a losing record at Fenway. Does getting the first or second wild card make it a good season ? Maybe if you were the A's, Rangers, Angels .

[Swiharts Ghost]

Better team won today .Sorry they freaking owned us and we are damn lucky not to be swept.The 2019 Boston Redsox suck .The team can't pitch it can't play D and can't hit .They suuuuuuck .Time to sell and let a few kids get some experience .Screw this gutless bunch and Xander who gives a s*** if your not on the All star team your team is floundering and fans ??? We are not spending the time to vote for anyone on this team who cares.

[vegasbob]

The 2012 Red Sox also had a massive fire-sale in August...

 

Is it totally out of the question to pull off a significant change of personnel in July from the 2019 RS. I'm meaning that no one is sacred and you could reshape the team for this year and forward a few years by changing 4 to 6 significant pieces. That includes all players whose last name starts with B, amopng others.

 

Not advocating anyone specifically, but put everything on the table in DD's last year of contract as Pres.

[Bellhorn04]

Is it accurate that this season is the last of Dombrowski's contract as president of BBO ? If so, does he get a new deal from ownership.

 

My cursory internet research shows that Peter Abraham has reported DD's deal runs through 2020.

[harmony]

The 2012 Red Sox also had a massive fire-sale in August...

The 2012 Red Sox were 60-66 on August 25 when the Sox traded Adrian Gonzalez, Josh Beckett and Carl Crawford to the Los Angeles Dodgers.

 

The Sox were 9-27 the remainder of 2012, rivaling the 12-37 slide of this year's Seattle Mariners April 12 through June 4. Seattle's 13-2 start this season was unexpected, as was the 12-37 slide that followed, but the M's 9-8 record since the slide falls within expectations.

[Bellhorn04]

Is it totally out of the question to pull off a significant change of personnel in July from the 2019 RS. I'm meaning that no one is sacred and you could reshape the team for this year and forward a few years by changing 4 to 6 significant pieces. That includes all players whose last name starts with B, amopng others.

 

Not advocating anyone specifically, but put everything on the table in DD's last year of contract as Pres.

 

I don't think the team should start trading guys just because we're having a disappointing, frustrating season.

 

I can see trading Porcello because his contract is expiring, that's about the only 'name' move I can see.

[dgalehouse]

Is it totally out of the question to pull off a significant change of personnel in July from the 2019 RS. I'm meaning that no one is sacred and you could reshape the team for this year and forward a few years by changing 4 to 6 significant pieces. That includes all players whose last name starts with B, amopng others.

 

Not advocating anyone specifically, but put everything on the table in DD's last year of contract as Pres.

 

Well , you don't want to cut off your nose to spite your face . You can trade anybody if it improves the team , but not just for the sake of doing something .

[oldtimer]

Whatever happened to the idea of playing every day? Cal Ripkin holds the record of 2632 straight. We have more guys either resting or on the IL then I can remember going back into the 40's. Devers, Holt, Moreland, Lin to name a few. We need to field a full team and keep it on the field. Bad backs, hamstrings, quads, stubbed toe, knees, etc. Cora has the idea of resting guys who are healthy. Does that work?

[devildavid]

Sox are losing a little ground in a very competitive WC race. They have to start playing better at home, where they now have a losing record. Maybe a long road trip would help.

[jacksonianmarch]

Sox are losing a little ground in a very competitive WC race. They have to start playing better at home, where they now have a losing record. Maybe a long road trip would help.

 

Sometimes the simplicity of road life can be helpful. I have heard of teams that are struggling banning family from traveling with the players. Less drama, more business.

[Kimmi]

I know it's complicated, but I doubt they made that big of a mistake, going over by 2.5 million.

 

I don't buy the idea that they miscalulated and made a mistake. It might be complicated to us, but people in the FO know exactly where they stand in terms of payroll. No mistake was made.