A Realistic View at 2019: Part I

[Kimmi]

Since we are talking a Realistic View of 2019, get real. Say the Red Sox win the #1 or #2 WC and get to play one game to set up the ALDS series.

 

Even assuming Eovaldi is back and in good shape, along with regular rest for the other 4 starters (Price, Sale, Porcello and Rodriguez) , who do you start in a one game playoff, with the season on the line ? Even assume Sale has full physical capabilities and is not tired, since Cora rested him most of September. Who goes for you ?? Then who is first out of the pen when you have a one run lead opening the "clean" 7th inning ?

 

Don't give up on the division yet.

 

That said, once the playoffs begin, it's all hands on deck. It could be that Eovaldi or Sale work out of the pen in some games like they did last year. Also, who knows what kinds of moves Dombrowski might make before the deadline, or how our relievers will be performing at that time?

 

I remember that people were very concerned about our pen last postseason as well. It worked out okay.

[Kimmi]

Gotta agree. The Yankees have buried us for the division and we're looking at the Wild Card route.

 

In the words of some singer, "Don't give up on us baby, we can still come through."

[Kimmi]

Is it accurate that this season is the last of Dombrowski's contract as president of BBO ? If so, does he get a new deal from ownership. I'm sure the majority would think , yes he does. The slippage in 2019 and lack of necessary housecleaning at the lower end of the 40 man roster after 2018's huge success needs to be evaluated. Did ownership ties his hands on budget/tax matters (very possible) or did DD envision some type of reset in 2020 , and coasted into 2019 thinking he had an automatic 100 game winner and playoff contender ?

 

One way or another someone fell asleep while the team has assembled a losing record at Fenway. Does getting the first or second wild card make it a good season ? Maybe if you were the A's, Rangers, Angels .

 

IMO, the state of the team's W-L record does not fall on Dombrowski. He did his job in assembling a competitive team. He cannot control what happens on the field.

[Kimmi]

Sox are losing a little ground in a very competitive WC race. They have to start playing better at home, where they now have a losing record. Maybe a long road trip would help.

 

It's rather perplexing that the Sox have such a poor home record. The last 2 losses to the Jays are disheartening, for sure. That said, this type of thing happens in the crazy game of baseball. The Sox will be fine.

[jacksonianmarch]

IMO, the state of the team's W-L record does not fall on Dombrowski. He did his job in assembling a competitive team. He cannot control what happens on the field.

 

This year’s current W-L doesn’t fall on DD. The state of the farm does. Also, if the financial status precludes deadline improvements, then that falls on him too. If the combination (lack of a farm and lack of flexibility) then its doubly on Dave

[moonslav59]

This year’s current W-L doesn’t fall on DD. The state of the farm does. Also, if the financial status precludes deadline improvements, then that falls on him too. If the combination (lack of a farm and lack of flexibility) then its doubly on Dave

 

$4-6M is enough to get a very good RP'er or two solid one when you figure we only pay 1/3 of their contracts, or we get the other team to pitch in cash like we got with Eovaldi last year.

[Kimmi]

This year’s current W-L doesn’t fall on DD. The state of the farm does. Also, if the financial status precludes deadline improvements, then that falls on him too. If the combination (lack of a farm and lack of flexibility) then its doubly on Dave

 

Unfortunately, I do not disagree with this. I have been criticizing Dombrowski for depleting our farm since he started.

 

That said, the only improvements that we need are one or two relievers for depth and reinforcement. Dombrowski should be able to do that with his remaining budget.

[moonslav59]

Unfortunately, I do not disagree with this. I have been criticizing Dombrowski for depleting our farm since he started.

 

That said, the only improvements that we need are one or two relievers for depth and reinforcement. Dombrowski should be able to do that with his remaining budget.

 

That's how I see it, but I'd like to see him get one long before the trade deadline.

 

Maybe he's waiting for Wright, and the roster restrictions due to several marginal players being out of options, but we could trade an out of options pitcher plus a decent prospect for a solid pen arm.

 

Pitchers out of options:

 

Thornburg

Johnson

Wright

Workman

 

[notin]

That's how I see it, but I'd like to see him get one long before the trade deadline.

 

Maybe he's waiting for Wright, and the roster restrictions due to several marginal players being out of options, but we could trade an out of options pitcher plus a decent prospect for a solid pen arm.

 

Pitchers out of options:

 

Thornburg

Johnson

Wright

Workman

 

 

Workman is the bullpen MVP to date. And the list of teams interested in Thornburg is shorter than the list of Oscar nominations for “Dude, Where’s My Car?”

[Maxbialystock]

The 2018 Sox aren’t back. The 2018 Sox had transcendent performances by two player who this year are simply good. These two performed at such a high level that the other spots benefited from Betts and JDM essentially being pitched around. This year, you can pitch to both of them. Granted, they’re still good, they’re just not in the “crush pitchers pitches” category this year. Now Vaz and Devers have taken a step forward. JBJ and Beni have taken steps back.

 

Interestingly, the Sox have scored the same amount per game than last year. The thing your team was last year was consistent and I haven’t seen that to this point in the 2019 squad. They’ll drop 12 on the O’s then get shutdown vs TB or NY. The Sox are 5 games under vs .500+ teams at 17-22 (.435). They were 41-33 vs .500+ teams last year (.554). That’s the difference. The Sox were good vs good teams and excellent vs bad ones. The Sox are still excellent vs bad teams (not the same win percentage, but still great) but paper tigers vs the cream

 

Surprisingly, I don't think you are being unfair. It's actually three--including Beni--of our top five in the batting order who are down from last year, and that just might be what is contributing to RISP disease. Our bullpen is probably affected by the loss of Kimbrel, even though I agreed with DD not wanting to pay what he wanted. The Yankees bullpen, meanwhile, is the envy of MLB and, i think, gives a psychological boost to the lineup as well as the rotation. The last 2 games vs. the Jays notwithstanding, I did and do like that winning streak and taking 2 of 3 at Minnesoata. Plus I did say catching the Yankees is unlikely--too big a margin vs. a team that is playing so well.

[dgalehouse]

Dombrowski blew into Boston like a big wind from Winnetka . He aggressively made moves that turned a last place team into a champion . Unfortunately , this past off season he rested on his laurels and took a long winter's nap. The same mistake Cherington made after 2013 . Hopefully , this club can still turn things around, but the season has been a disappointment so far . There is no disputing that .

[Maxbialystock]

Dombrowski blew into Boston like a big wind from Winnetka . He aggressively made moves that turned a last place team into a champion . Unfortunately , this past off season he rested on his laurels and took a long winter's nap. The same mistake Cherington made after 2013 . Hopefully , this club can still turn things around, but the season has been a disappointment so far . There is no disputing that .

 

I am far from an expert on front office moves, but have to disagree that DD fell asleep because I too thought Kimbrel was asking for too much, especially after his collapse in the postseason. Losing Kelly to the Dodgers actually turned out well--so far. We lost Kinsler, but really haven't missed him, especially when Chavis was hitting so well.

 

Meanwhile, the entire rotation, including midseason addition Eovaldi, is back, and basically so is that great lineup of 2018. It's just that JDM and Betts are having down years, ditto Beni somewhat. But Devers is way better, so is Bogie, so is Vazquez, and Chavis is a good addition with Pearce and Moreland on the IL.

 

And let's not forget that the Sox already have the highest payroll in MLB, which mostly why Kimbrel ended up in Chicago.

 

I of course defer to kimmi's bitterness over what DD has done to the farm system because that is on DD.

[jacksonianmarch]

Surprisingly, I don't think you are being unfair. It's actually three--including Beni--of our top five in the batting order who are down from last year, and that just might be what is contributing to RISP disease. Our bullpen is probably affected by the loss of Kimbrel, even though I agreed with DD not wanting to pay what he wanted. The Yankees bullpen, meanwhile, is the envy of MLB and, i think, gives a psychological boost to the lineup as well as the rotation. The last 2 games vs. the Jays notwithstanding, I did and do like that winning streak and taking 2 of 3 at Minnesoata. Plus I did say catching the Yankees is unlikely--too big a margin vs. a team that is playing so well.

 

Cashman easily could have gone out and gotten Paxton and brought back the finishing squad from 2018 and stopped. We needed a starter, we got a really good one, awesome. But he used last offseason as a springboard, getting Ottavino and then Lemahieu, even when we didn't have a spot for him. DJ is our MVP at the halfway point and Ottavino is probably our relief MVP thus far. Getting the players we got allowed us to weather the storm of injuries that came. Spreading out the money allowed us to have incredible depth. Could we have let Gardy walk and spent bonkers money on Harper or Machado? Maybe. But having Ottavino, Gardner and Lemahieu is far more valuable than either of those players were.

 

And yes, our pen is a psychological boost for starters and the hitters. Batter know they just need to chip away because the pen can hold deficits. The starters know they don't have to be perfect cause the pen will hold it and the lineup can get them back.

[moonslav59]

I am far from an expert on front office moves, but have to disagree that DD fell asleep because I too thought Kimbrel was asking for too much, especially after his collapse in the postseason. Losing Kelly to the Dodgers actually turned out well--so far. We lost Kinsler, but really haven't missed him, especially when Chavis was hitting so well.

 

Meanwhile, the entire rotation, including midseason addition Eovaldi, is back, and basically so is that great lineup of 2018. It's just that JDM and Betts are having down years, ditto Beni somewhat. But Devers is way better, so is Bogie, so is Vazquez, and Chavis is a good addition with Pearce and Moreland on the IL.

 

And let's not forget that the Sox already have the highest payroll in MLB, which mostly why Kimbrel ended up in Chicago.

 

I of course defer to kimmi's bitterness over what DD has done to the farm system because that is on DD.

 

Great post! Is it DD's fault our rotation and top or the order have declined so sharply? (This question is not directed at you.)

 

On the bright side, we finally have the balanced line up many felt was essential to winning rings. How has that worked out for us?

[vegasbob]

That's how I see it, but I'd like to see him get one long before the trade deadline.

 

Maybe he's waiting for Wright, and the roster restrictions due to several marginal players being out of options, but we could trade an out of options pitcher plus a decent prospect for a solid pen arm.

 

Pitchers out of options:

 

Thornburg

Johnson

Wright

Workman

 

 

Since Workman won't be going away and Thornburg is sucking at AAA (0-2, 15.43 ERA, 2.79WHIP in a small sample of 4.2 innings), that leaves Wright or Johnson . No clue as to whether Wright can pitch effectively, and k'ballers are always a crap shoot . No one would miss him being gone. Brian Johnson is his own dilemma. Was the 5 innings vs Toronto, the real deal or just another teaser ? SW and BJ could both go if it solved a problem. Same for the bad back of Hector V. None of those 3 should be in any serious plan for 2020.

 

Wrights record at PawSox is better than Thornburg. 1-0, 1.86ERA and 0.93 WHIP. Throwing his junk at AAA'ers is working for him. I imagine he will get both a chance in a couple days as well as some showcasing prior to the July deadline.

Edited June 24, 2019 by vegasbob

[Slasher9]

Great post! Is it DD's fault our rotation and top or the order have declined so sharply? (This question is not directed at you.)

 

On the bright side, we finally have the balanced line up many felt was essential to winning rings. How has that worked out for us?

 

So is it on WTF Cora then?

[Bellhorn04]

So is it on WTF Cora then?

 

Of course. Nothing to do with the players simply failing to perform whatsoever.

[jung]

This year looks to me more like a failure at all levels:

- DD does seem to have run up against his usual issues, busting the budget and raping the farm system though it got as a WS win

- Cora and the coaching staff did not end up with a rotation ready to start the season which cost them at least 12 of their first 18 losses without even a fight

- The bullpen generally is a bunch of journeymen only really capable of each filling a very specific sort of BP niche, none of them closers by the way

- finally and maybe more disconcerting to me than anything else. 1-6 in the order is viciously inconsistent at the plate. This is a FB hitting team that is not getting FB's to hit and if the recent trend in baseball holds, they are not going to get FB's to hit. X can hit breaking balls and Holt can to some degree and that is about where it ends unless you want to count Chavis who can ONLY hit breaking balls and only if they are thrown for possible called strikes down main street.

 

All by way of saying, I view their chance of getting past both the Yankees and Rays at zero. They might claw past the Rays but unlike last year, I seriously doubt they will enter the post season 5 at better than the 4th or 5th best team. THEY CAN"T HIT BREAKING PITCHES and the increased volume of breaking pitches is the big whoops of the year IMO. Probably keeping Manfred up nights considering how he has tried to massage this game in a particular direction.

[moonslav59]

Since Workman won't be going away and Thornburg is sucking at AAA (0-2, 15.43 ERA, 2.79WHIP in a small sample of 4.2 innings), that leaves Wright or Johnson . No clue as to whether Wright can pitch effectively, and k'ballers are always a crap shoot . No one would miss him being gone. Brian Johnson is his own dilemma. Was the 5 innings vs Toronto, the real deal or just another teaser ? SW and BJ could both go if it solved a problem. Same for the bad back of Hector V. None of those 3 should be in any serious plan for 2020.

 

Wrights record at PawSox is better than Thornburg. 1-0, 1.86ERA and 0.93 WHIP. Throwing his junk at AAA'ers is working for him. I imagine he will get both a chance in a couple days as well as some showcasing prior to the July deadline.

 

I don't agree on knucklers being any more of a crapshoot than other pitchers. Wright has been one of our most consistent pitchers- when healthy.

 

I'd have no problem DFA'ing Thornburg and trading Johnson, even if just for scarps, if it meant opening up a roster slot for a solid RP'er (or two).

[devildavid]

It's rather perplexing that the Sox have such a poor home record. The last 2 losses to the Jays are disheartening, for sure. That said, this type of thing happens in the crazy game of baseball. The Sox will be fine.

 

I don't share your optimism. I think it is going to be a very competitive wild card race. The only way they compete for the division is if the Yankees collapse, which seems unlikely. I still think the Sox are strong contenders for a wild card spot, and that is being as optimistic as I can manage.

[kenmeister]

I don't agree on knucklers being any more of a crapshoot than other pitchers. Wright has been one of our most consistent pitchers- when healthy.

 

I'd have no problem DFA'ing Thornburg and trading Johnson, even if just for scarps, if it meant opening up a roster slot for a solid RP'er (or two).

 

Yeah I really do think Wright will give us a nice solid rotation piece. I don't know if Eovaldi will be back this year at all. Man my New York friend told me not to get my hopes up for Eovaldi; he was right! Now that bumps Johnson to the bullpen, and the problem is that, at least from what I've seen, Johnson is a better starter than reliever. So given he has less value in the pen, there must be a team in need of a 5th starter, so trade him for a reliever.

[moonslav59]

Yeah I really do think Wright will give us a nice solid rotation piece. I don't know if Eovaldi will be back this year at all. Man my New York friend told me not to get my hopes up for Eovaldi; he was right! Now that bumps Johnson to the bullpen, and the problem is that, at least from what I've seen, Johnson is a better starter than reliever. So given he has less value in the pen, there must be a team in need of a 5th starter, so trade him for a reliever.

 

I think the plan is Wright soley in relief.

[kenmeister]

I think the plan is Wright soley in relief.

 

Really? That might actually work out if Johnson can do 5-6 innings 1-3 runs each time which I think he can.

[Slasher9]

Of course. Nothing to do with the players simply failing to perform whatsoever.

 

i mean...the landscape is littered with the dead corpses of managers whose players simply failed to perform......

[oldtimer]

i mean...the landscape is littered with the dead corpses of managers whose players simply failed to perform......

 

And right now its JDM who is struggling and Mookie to some extent as well. When the teams two top hitters struggle, its hard to put up crooked numbers. I think they will both come around but it may take them to the AS break to become the impact players we need.

[moonslav59]

Really? That might actually work out if Johnson can do 5-6 innings 1-3 runs each time which I think he can.

 

Wright pitched 5 games with Pawtucket. He never pitched more than 3 IP.

 

1.2 in relief

3.0 in relief

2.0 starting

1.0 in relief

2.0 in relief

 

If we do start him, don't count on more than 3 IP (at least for a while).

 

[moonslav59]

And right now its JDM who is struggling and Mookie to some extent as well. When the teams two top hitters struggle, its hard to put up crooked numbers. I think they will both come around but it may take them to the AS break to become the impact players we need.

 

I thought our problem last year was "too many black holed" at the bottom of the order.

 

Now, we fixed that, and the problem is our stars have dipped in performance.

 

Here's a look at 2018 vs 2019 (stats doubled)

 

Runs Scored:

2018: 829

2019: 810

 

OPS

2018: .792

2019: .790

 

HRs:

2018: 208

2019: 226

 

OPS by Slot:

Slot 2018-2019

1. 1.028- .764

2. .759 -.868

3. .871 -.826

4. .968 -.872

5. .796 -.910

6. .684 -.829

7. .667 -.641

8. .607 -.724

9. .704 -.640

 

Last year, we had 3 slots with an OPS below .685.

This year, we have just 2 slots below .724.

Edited June 25, 2019 by moonslav59

[jacksonianmarch]

I think the plan is Wright soley in relief.

 

Cora and DD came out and confirmed that. Wright's knee isn't going to allow him to throw many back to backs or throw starter's innings. He is gonna be a multi inning reliever with a day off in between

[a700hitter]

When will Moreland and Pearce be returning to the team. They have been out for a long time. Did they need amputations?

[Bellhorn04]

When will Moreland and Pearce be returning to the team. They have been out for a long time. Did they need amputations?

 

Or Sox medical staff is conducting experiments on how to take their best parts and combine them into one player who will stay healthy and hit equally well from both sides.