A Realistic View at 2019: Part I

[OH FOY]

Cora and DD came out and confirmed that. Wright's knee isn't going to allow him to throw many back to backs or throw starter's innings. He is gonna be a multi inning reliever with a day off in between

 

Agree, got to hope his knee holds up.

[Kimmi]

That's how I see it, but I'd like to see him get one long before the trade deadline.

 

Maybe he's waiting for Wright, and the roster restrictions due to several marginal players being out of options, but we could trade an out of options pitcher plus a decent prospect for a solid pen arm.

 

Pitchers out of options:

 

Thornburg

Johnson

Wright

Workman

 

 

My understanding is that he is waiting for the injured players to return, especially Wright and Eovaldi. It's hard to know exactly what the needs are when some of them may or may not be resolved by having players return healthy.

[Kimmi]

Surprisingly, I don't think you are being unfair. It's actually three--including Beni--of our top five in the batting order who are down from last year, and that just might be what is contributing to RISP disease. Our bullpen is probably affected by the loss of Kimbrel, even though I agreed with DD not wanting to pay what he wanted. The Yankees bullpen, meanwhile, is the envy of MLB and, i think, gives a psychological boost to the lineup as well as the rotation. The last 2 games vs. the Jays notwithstanding, I did and do like that winning streak and taking 2 of 3 at Minnesoata. Plus I did say catching the Yankees is unlikely--too big a margin vs. a team that is playing so well.

 

But just think about how good this team will be when they hit their stride. Mookie and JD will hit better than they are hitting now. When they do, look out!

[Kimmi]

I am far from an expert on front office moves, but have to disagree that DD fell asleep because I too thought Kimbrel was asking for too much, especially after his collapse in the postseason. Losing Kelly to the Dodgers actually turned out well--so far. We lost Kinsler, but really haven't missed him, especially when Chavis was hitting so well.

 

Meanwhile, the entire rotation, including midseason addition Eovaldi, is back, and basically so is that great lineup of 2018. It's just that JDM and Betts are having down years, ditto Beni somewhat. But Devers is way better, so is Bogie, so is Vazquez, and Chavis is a good addition with Pearce and Moreland on the IL.

 

And let's not forget that the Sox already have the highest payroll in MLB, which mostly why Kimbrel ended up in Chicago.

 

I of course defer to kimmi's bitterness over what DD has done to the farm system because that is on DD.

 

Max continuing with the solid posts.

[Kimmi]

So is it on WTF Cora then?

 

On his in game decisions? No.

 

I am among those that question whether he had the team ready to play at the start of the season or not, though. I think time will tell whether it was the right play or not.

[Kimmi]

I don't share your optimism. I think it is going to be a very competitive wild card race. The only way they compete for the division is if the Yankees collapse, which seems unlikely. I still think the Sox are strong contenders for a wild card spot, and that is being as optimistic as I can manage.

 

I understand. I don't have my head in the sand. I know it won't be easy. The Red Sox will need a lot of things to break the right way for them.

 

That said, I have seen larger leads blown or gained during just the month of September. There is no way I'm going to concede the division with half the season left to play.

 

I know that most people on here would not count the Yankees out if the roles were reversed, so I don't know why they would count the Red Sox out now.

[a700hitter]

My head is also not in the sand. This hole was dug by DD building a bullpen out of garbage and Cora thinking that the season starts in October. This squad, even with the garbage bullpen, should be at least 10 games over .500 — well within striking distance. Cora takes the biggest part of the blame. It was the dumbest approach that I have seen to a Spring camp.

[Bellhorn04]

My head is also not in the sand. This hole was dug by DD building a bullpen out of garbage and Cora thinking that the season starts in October. This squad, even with the garbage bullpen, should be at least 10 games over .500 — well within striking distance. Cora takes the biggest part of the blame. It was the dumbest approach that I have seen to a Spring camp.

 

You seem to have shrunk.

[notin]

You seem to have shrunk.

 

 

Maybe he’s just sitting closer to the computer now?

[moonslav59]

My understanding is that he is waiting for the injured players to return, especially Wright and Eovaldi. It's hard to know exactly what the needs are when some of them may or may not be resolved by having players return healthy.

 

IMO, even if Wright and Eovaldi do great, we still need a closer or solid RP'er.

 

Yes, it will mean someone without an option will have to go beyond the one who has to go when everyone is healthy.

 

[notin]

IMO, even if Wright and Eovaldi do great, we still need a closer or solid RP'er.

 

Yes, it will mean someone without an option will have to go beyond the one who has to go when everyone is healthy.

 

 

 

I’m predicting at some point next month, DD makes a move for Shane Greene. What will it take and will DD give that up are two other issues...

[dgalehouse]

In 2018 the Sox were the best team in baseball . Nobody with a brain could question that . The parade was wonderful. However , since the parade ended , the Sox front office has mostly been missing in action , while the Yankee's front office has been aggressively looking to improve the team . That is the reason we are presently eight games behind New York . Plain and simple . Common sense . We don't need pages of stats and what ifs to try and explain it away .

[Bellhorn04]

In 2018 the Sox were the best team in baseball . Nobody with a brain could question that . The parade was wonderful. However , since the parade ended , the Sox front office has mostly been missing in action , while the Yankee's front office has been aggressively looking to improve the team . That is the reason we are presently eight games behind New York . Plain and simple . Common sense . We don't need pages of stats and what ifs to try and explain it away .

 

I'd say you're partly right.

 

The Yankees are starved for success. They've won it all once since 2000. They haven't won the division since 2012. So they were definitely motivated to make some moves. And they had some payroll room.

 

The Red Sox had very little payroll room and they used it on Eovaldi and Pearce.

 

I think the criticisms of DD for doing nothing about the pen have some validity. That's about it. There was not much else he could do.

[a700hitter]

You seem to have shrunk.

I just noticed that. LOL!! I must have hit a setting or something on my phone.

[kenmeister]

But just think about how good this team will be when they hit their stride. Mookie and JD will hit better than they are hitting now. When they do, look out!

 

Mookie's career OPS by year:

 

2014 - .812

2015 - .820

2016 - .897

2017 - .803

2018 - 1.078

2019 - .850

 

2018 looks like an aberration to me, and we may not see him rise to that level again. .850 is about what we should expect from Mookie. I hope the front office doesn't make a Jacoby Ellsbury-like mistake in throwing too much money at him for an extension.

 

JDM seems to have a back that won't get better. I don't see him improving without extended rest. He hopefully will be better next year, provided he does the right offseason conditioning.

[Bellhorn04]

JDM seems to have a back that won't get better. I don't see him improving without extended rest. He hopefully will be better next year, provided he does the right offseason conditioning.

 

A homer and a double today, OPS at .895 on June 26. I really think reports of his demise are a little premature.

[a700hitter]

A homer and a double today, OPS at .895 on June 26. I really think reports of his demise are a little premature.

Like I posted before. When he is struggling, he is still dangerous.

[kenmeister]

A homer and a double today, OPS at .895 on June 26. I really think reports of his demise are a little premature.

 

I didn't even realize they were already playing today!

 

Quickly tunes in ...

 

Wow what happened to Chris Sale???

[oldtimer]

I didn't even realize they were already playing today!

 

Quickly tunes in ...

 

Wow what happened to Chris Sale???

 

Barnes is also having issues. Maybe Cora hasn't rested him enough? This team may be RIP for the playoffs.

[devildavid]

I understand. I don't have my head in the sand. I know it won't be easy. The Red Sox will need a lot of things to break the right way for them.

 

That said, I have seen larger leads blown or gained during just the month of September. There is no way I'm going to concede the division with half the season left to play.

 

I know that most people on here would not count the Yankees out if the roles were reversed, so I don't know why they would count the Red Sox out now.

 

I would count the Yankees out if they were performing like the Sox are. I would be worried that they might make it by the Wild Card.

[moonslav59]

Mookie's career OPS by year:

 

2014 - .812

2015 - .820

2016 - .897

2017 - .803

2018 - 1.078

2019 - .850

 

2018 looks like an aberration to me, and we may not see him rise to that level again. .850 is about what we should expect from Mookie. I hope the front office doesn't make a Jacoby Ellsbury-like mistake in throwing too much money at him for an extension.

 

JDM seems to have a back that won't get better. I don't see him improving without extended rest. He hopefully will be better next year, provided he does the right offseason conditioning.

 

I disagree.

 

He may not match his 2018 OPS again, but I'd bet he hits over .900 3+ times.

[jacksonianmarch]

I made the same point over the winter. Man, I am absolutely killing it

[Nick]

The goal is to win the World Series. Just ask a Dodger. Yeah, it's nice to be the NL champion. But they don't throw a parade for coming in second, do they?

 

Playing well going into October is a must. We can second guess all we want but I want to see the entire team healthy before I give up on this team.

 

They will go on a run at some point.

 

For me, Eovaldi returning to starting rotation will cure many of the pitching problems. He will lengthen our bullpen.

[Bellhorn04]

I made the same point over the winter. Man, I am absolutely killing it

 

Which point?

[jacksonianmarch]

Which point?

 

That Betts 2018 was more the exception than the rule

[notin]

That Betts 2018 was more the exception than the rule

 

 

Yeah apparently he’s no annual 30 home run hitter like Clint Frazier...

[Bellhorn04]

It's true though. Mookie's 1.078 last year looks like a monster outlier.

[notin]

It's true though. Mookie's 1.078 last year looks like a monster outlier.

 

 

He’s 26 and you’re comparing his age 25 OPS to his OPS at ages 21 and 22 to determine that. Plenty of players step up their offensive game at his current age...

[OH FOY]

Boston's Pitching has gained 1 full run on the ERA, last 45 days. That's our problem.

For all the HRS teams are hitting, Sox only 5 runs behind the Yanks, in total runs scored, Twins have played 3 less games, and they are 14 runs behind in total runs scored.

It's the Pitching that's hurting us.

[OH FOY]

Consider this, last year after the AS break, Sale maybe started 6 games, the Sox finished the season with a fantastic 3.75 team ERA, in the AL, that's real good.

At this point, our team ERA at this point is, 4.30. A half run a game more, at this point.

I think not only BP in underachieving, but our starters too. Especially Sale.

I think McAdam was wrong about full run in last 45 days. I commented on this on the BSJ site. Hope he gets back to me.

Edited June 27, 2019 by OH FOY!