A Realistic View at 2019: Part I

[Maxbialystock]

There is so much comment on WTF Cora and the makeup of The Pen , you would think there is no other issues on this team. But maybe the real problem is in the 12 guys on the hitting roster failing to perform on any consistent basis , including Betts, Benintendi and JD Martinez. JDM's totals to date are within his historical range but recently he has posted some ridiculous K numbers and looked bad doing it ( 15 of last 34 AB's). Hard to be too critical of Chavis as a raw rookie but he is nearing a 43% K rate over his last 113 AB's. Pearce and Moreland are MIA, and other than Mitch's brief HR run were not hitting well. Nunez is Nunez, as is Leon. What did we expect, a Sam Travis breakthrough?

 

Devers and Bogaerts have carried the load, with improvement from Vazquez, and some over the last 30 days from JBJr after a two month tour of the .150s . Brock Holt is posting some numbers most recently but skipped about 50 games getting his kid out of his eyes.

 

The bench has no legit PH'er on it , and no Of'er has a BA over .269, but Beni combines that with an OPS of .776. Andrew is a singles machine. Mookie at least cracks the .800's, and did get the fair pole potential game winner last night, all for naught.

 

The focus may remain on Cora's decisions and bolstering the pen, but Tim Hyers needs to look at his job too. He can't hit for them but between his work and Cora's experience, some one needs to get about 6 of the 12 hitters to wake up.

 

The pen so far has been a bargain. Our five best are paid $5.5M, less than half of what Kimbrel will get this year from the Cubs. That said, they are still only decent. The rotation hurt us beyond question. Neither Sale nor Price is so far at his best. ERod has still not taken that next step to being really consistent. Porcello is hot and cold. Eovaldi is rehabbing or getting ready to rehab or something. Overall, it's fair to say the pitching is the big problem this year.

 

The lineup has an OPS of .784 compared to last year's .792, which led MLB. Not a big difference. They have scored 399 runs in 75 games, which is 5.32 runs per game. Last year they scored 876 runs in 162 games, which is 5.41 runs per game. Again, not a big difference, and last year's Sox led MLB in runs and OPS. So our lineup is fine and will likely get better.

 

Fielding. It think right now it's pretty good. Bogie lacks range but is very consistent. Devers is transformed from earlier this year (and all the seasons before) and has range (especially on pops over his head) and vastly fewer errors. The outfield is still very good. We lost gold glove Kinsler at 2B, but, except for Nunez, I'm fine with whoever has played there. 1b also fine. Leon is easily the better catcher, but Vazquez is decent and a better hitter. And JDM has not made a single error at DH.

Edited June 19, 2019 by Maxbialystock

[Bellhorn04]

Minnesota is the highest scoring team in MLB but in this series they've only scored 4 runs in 25+ innings. So have their hitters been crappy in the 2 games or has our pitching been excellent?

 

That's strictly a rhetorical question, because no one really knows the answer. It's not that simple.

[moonslav59]

The pen so far has been a bargain. Our five best are paid $5.5M, less than half of what Kimbrel will get this year from the Cubs. That said, they are still only decent. The rotation hurt us beyond question. Neither Sale nor Price is so far at his best. ERod has still not taken that next step to being really consistent. Porcello is hot and cold. Eovaldi is rehabbing or getting ready to rehab or something. Overall, it's fair to say the pitching is the big problem this year.

 

The lineup has an OPS of .784 compared to last year's .792, which led MLB. Not a big difference. They have scored 399 runs in 75 games, which is 5.32 runs per game. Last year they scored 876 runs in 162 games, which is 5.41 runs per game. Again, not a big difference, and last year's Sox led MLB in runs and OPS. So our lineup is fine and will likely get better.

 

Fielding. It think right now it's pretty good. Bogie lacks range but is very consistent. Devers is transformed from earlier this year (and all the seasons before) and has range (especially on pops over his head) and vastly fewer errors. The outfield is still very good. We lost gold glove Kinsler at 2B, but, except for Nunez, I'm fine with whoever has played there. 1b also fine. Leon is easily the better catcher, but Vazquez is decent and a better hitter. And JDM has not made a single error at DH.

 

It's been all about the lack of timely hitting and untimely meltdowns by our pitching staff.

[MADSTORK]

How did the “Closer by committee” work out last night vs Twins?

 

You legend in your own mind stat geeks fail to realize a loss is a loss is a loss. You can’t sugar coat it.

Unless DD finds a Closer or hidden gem which is remote, I’ll quote the great Terry Francona “good luck with that”!

[moonslav59]

How did the “Closer by committee” work out last night vs Twins?

 

You legend in your own mind stat geeks fail to realize a loss is a loss is a loss. You can’t sugar coat it.

Unless DD finds a Closer or hidden gem which is remote, I’ll quote the great Terry Francona “good luck with that”!

 

Our "closer", Barnes, did great.

 

He pitched a scoreless 9th inning.

 

It was the non closers that let up the runs.

[jung]

We still don't get timely hits. We are still inconsistent 1-6 in the batting order and I don't see an actual solution on the horizon until and unless we become more consistent 1-6 in the order.

 

Any good or above starter shuts us down now and there are plenty of those to go around.

[moonslav59]

We still don't get timely hits. We are still inconsistent 1-6 in the batting order and I don't see an actual solution on the horizon until and unless we become more consistent 1-6 in the order.

 

Any good or above starter shuts us down now and there are plenty of those to go around.

 

Exactly. You can't trade for a "timely hitter."

 

You can't teach or practice "timely hitting."

 

We also seem to have untimely pitcher meltdowns, if you call letting up 1 run in the bottom of the 8th and 13th innings as a "meltdown."

[moonslav59]

Let us win tonight, have a much needed day off and come hom to an 8 game homestand vs TOR (3), CWS (3) and then the Yanks for 2.

 

The homestand rotation might look like this:

TOR Sale +1 day rest

TOR ???

TOR Porcello +1

CWS Price +1

CWS ERod +1

CWS Sale

NYY ???

NYY Porcello

 

or we could go without the extra day rest for all but Sale

Sale +1

Porcello

Price

ERod

???

Sale

Porcello v NYY

Price v NYY

[Bellhorn04]

How did the “Closer by committee” work out last night vs Twins?

 

You legend in your own mind stat geeks fail to realize a loss is a loss is a loss. You can’t sugar coat it.

Unless DD finds a Closer or hidden gem which is remote, I’ll quote the great Terry Francona “good luck with that”!

 

You were spewing the same nonsense last year. How'd that work out?

[Kimmi]

I think the Sox are solid contenders for a wild card spot.

 

It doesn't look too promising at the moment, but I'm not giving up on the division. There's plenty of baseball left to be played.

[Kimmi]

Thanks Dave!

 

Perfect post. LOL

[Kimmi]

I will chock this series as a success provided we win tonight. We have played better of late but still need to get hitting with RISP.

 

This team is too damn inconsistent. Last night should have been a w.

 

The Twins are a very good team this year. Very good. They haven't lost 3 games in a row this season, if I'm not mistaken, and haven't lost 2 in a row that many times. To beat them in the first game and to play them as tightly as we played them in the second game says good things about the Red Sox. Both games could have gone either way, suggesting that the teams match up pretty evenly. I'm good with that, though I hated losing last night's game.

[Kimmi]

Perhaps. But, frankly, if there can such a thing as a good loss, I think last night was it. The defense--especially JBJ and Vazquez who both literally prevented runs--was excellent. Price was better than I expected and even a little lucky because they were hitting his changeup hard. The bullpen was again very good despite the final inning and despite Workman (ERA 1.82) giving up the 1 run in the 8th. The lineup did in fact get the Sox a lead 3 different times even though they were 1 for 13 with RISP. This was a 5:45 marathon and their 15th game in 14 days, and their is no doubt in my mind they were battling the whole game.

 

Another solid post Max.

[Kimmi]

How did the “Closer by committee” work out last night vs Twins?

 

You legend in your own mind stat geeks fail to realize a loss is a loss is a loss. You can’t sugar coat it.

Unless DD finds a Closer or hidden gem which is remote, I’ll quote the great Terry Francona “good luck with that”!

 

There was a blown save last night, and it's easy to blame this loss on the pen. IMO, that is really rather unfair, but go right ahead.

[moonslav59]

There was a blown save last night, and it's easy to blame this loss on the pen. IMO, that is really rather unfair, but go right ahead.

 

Actually, 2 blown saves, but point well taken.

[Bellhorn04]

There was a blown save last night, and it's easy to blame this loss on the pen. IMO, that is really rather unfair, but go right ahead.

 

Kimmi, the STORK does not deserve that sort of polite and rational response. He's a classic Concern Troll.

[MADSTORK]

You can not rationalize a loss by saying “we played well or we had a lead twice or this player pitched well or hit well.

 

Bottom line is, without a legit Closer and Barnes pitching the 8th your going to lose more than you will win.

Record vs winning teams is 7 games under .500.

Playoff Teams in general usually play .500 ball vs each other which gives you a 50/50 chance of winning come playoff time.

 

Pitching wins in The postseason which has been proven. Until a 9th inning arm emerges your chances of repeating are slim

[notin]

You can not rationalize a loss by saying “we played well or we had a lead twice or this player pitched well or hit well.

 

Bottom line is, without a legit Closer and Barnes pitching the 8th your going to lose more than you will win.

Record vs winning teams is 7 games under .500.

Playoff Teams in general usually play .500 ball vs each other which gives you a 50/50 chance of winning come playoff time.

 

Pitching wins in The postseason which has been proven. Until a 9th inning arm emerges your chances of repeating are slim

 

Really?

 

The Sox are over .500 now, but you’re predicting they will finish under .500? With your track record for spot on predictions on team performance?

 

Now that stork has chimed in, I am confident this team will win 105 games...

[moonslav59]

Really?

 

The Sox are over .500 now, but you’re predicting they will finish under .500? With your track record for spot on predictions on team performance?

 

Now that stork has chimed in, I am confident this team will win 105 games...

 

We should probably not see any more blown saves either.

[a700hitter]

Logan Allen had a nice debut last night, beat the Brewers 7 innings, 3 hits, 0 runs.

 

Thanks Dave!

I'll trade Logan Allen and 3 bags of trash every day for 108 Saves and a 2.44 ERA over 3 seasons while contributing to 3 Division Championships and 1 World Championship.

[notin]

I'll trade Logan Allen and 3 bags of trash every day for 108 Saves and a 2.44 ERA over 3 seasons while contributing to 3 Division Championships and 1 World Championship.

 

 

He may have been sarcastic...

[Bellhorn04]

You can not rationalize a loss by saying “we played well or we had a lead twice or this player pitched well or hit well.

 

Bottom line is, without a legit Closer and Barnes pitching the 8th your going to lose more than you will win.

Record vs winning teams is 7 games under .500.

Playoff Teams in general usually play .500 ball vs each other which gives you a 50/50 chance of winning come playoff time.

 

Pitching wins in The postseason which has been proven. Until a 9th inning arm emerges your chances of repeating are slim

 

Until you stop posting your chances of sounding intelligent are slim.

[Slasher9]

It doesn't look too promising at the moment, but I'm not giving up on the division. There's plenty of baseball left to be played.

 

we got this

[Slasher9]

Until you stop posting your chances of sounding intelligent are slim.

 

hahahahahaha. ZING!

[Slasher9]

your chances of repeating are slim

 

those chances are always slim. the last team to repeat? steroid fueled NYY in the last century.

 

also the fun part about the postseason is you have guys like Eovaldi moving to pen. fun stuff. like 2018. you remember 2018, right?

[cp176]

Thanks Dave!

 

Oh boy Bellhorn, don't you start with this worn and tired refrain. You know what comes next. i could start softly with my belief about where your best hitter should be which might gradually morph in to all of the ridiculous sighnings that can be directly attributed to Ben Cherington.

[cp176]

I'll trade Logan Allen and 3 bags of trash every day for 108 Saves and a 2.44 ERA over 3 seasons while contributing to 3 Division Championships and 1 World Championship.

 

hey where is our poster boy ben hanging out these days? lol

[OH FOY]

I'll trade Logan Allen and 3 bags of trash every day for 108 Saves and a 2.44 ERA over 3 seasons while contributing to 3 Division Championships and 1 World Championship.

 

Then the Sox are crazy not resigning him then with those numbers. So you think they wont make the Play-offs? I agree the Trade had to made at that point. Remember if it wasn't for a great Bennintendi catch, Kimbrel was close to being a Goat in last years Play-offs.

Edited June 20, 2019 by OH FOY!

[Slasher9]

Then the Sox are crazy not resigning him then with those numbers. So you think they wont make the Play-offs? I agree the Trade had to made at that point. Remember if it wasn't for a great Bennintendi catch, Kimbrel was close to being a Goat in last years Play-offs.

 

kimbrell is lucky. fat beni doesnt make that catch now.

[Maxbialystock]

You can not rationalize a loss by saying “we played well or we had a lead twice or this player pitched well or hit well.

 

Bottom line is, without a legit Closer and Barnes pitching the 8th your going to lose more than you will win.

Record vs winning teams is 7 games under .500.

Playoff Teams in general usually play .500 ball vs each other which gives you a 50/50 chance of winning come playoff time.

 

Pitching wins in The postseason which has been proven. Until a 9th inning arm emerges your chances of repeating are slim

 

I generally prefer to disagree with you, but will not argue that repeating last year is anything but guaranteed. It's even a longshot at this point.

 

At the same time, however, I believe the Twins series was a watershed event, including the loss, which was anything but a bad loss. And I said that after the game and well before last night's game. Price asked not to go back out for the 6th, and Cora and the bullpen responded beautifully even though the Sox lost in the 17th. The proof was how the Sox demolished the Twins in game 3.

 

Last year's team is back, and they are ready to keep winning.

 

If Uehara in 2013 form were available, I would be more enthusiastic about getting a great closer, but, honestly, Kimbrel poisoned that well for me last year. He was and is an overpaid prima donna who folded like a cheap tent in the postseason. Brasier and Kelly and even Eovaldi (normally a starter) were a whole bunch better. This year Kelly is just one more earthquake in LA, Brasier has struggled, and Eovaldi is on the IL. So, basically, we need Cora and his pitching coach to be clairvoyant for the rest of the season in terms who comes in for a given inning. That bullpen has already carried a lot of water this season because the rotation has been inconsistent.

 

Oh, in case you missed it, I pointed out exactly how Cora was masterful in the middle game (17 innings) of the Twins series and will be happy to repeat that for you.

 

Maybe because I'm older--my Sox fandom began in 1949, 55 years before the end (2004) of the Curse--I am not spoiled by the humoungous success of the John Henry era in Boston. Thus to me our Sox cup runneth over with four WS wins in 14 years.

 

So, me, right now I'm pretty darn happy with this team and this manager. That winning streak and taking 2 of 3 vs. the Twins was no fluke. this is a solid team with no big weaknesses, not even our underpaid and over-maligned bullpen.

Edited June 20, 2019 by Maxbialystock