Sox starting pitching thread

[SoxnCycles]

I hope to hell no Red Sox management person makes any decision based on one start.

 

There is absolutely no way Price does NOT start a playoff games, unless he's hurt.

 

Not a problem. If he has to face the Yankees, he'll have a hangnail.

[Fan_since_Boggs]

I agree that Sale, Porcello, and Rodriguez will be in the playoff rotation. If S.Wright can get healthy, do we know for sure he can't beat out Price for a rotation spot? Will Wright not be healthy again this year?

 

If the Red Sox play the Yankees in the playoffs, I don't see the Red Sox using Price as a starter. But if Wright isn't healthy, they are in a bad spot and will probably be forced to use him. That will be a predictable disaster.

 

A question about the playoffs. If the Red Sox win the wild card and win the wild card game, do they go on to play the team with the best record in the next round? Or, does the best record play the worst record in the first round regardless of whether the worst team is the wild card winner or division winner?

Edited July 2, 2018 by Fan_since_Boggs

[moonslav59]

I agree that Sale, Porcello, and Rodriguez will be in the playoff rotation. If S.Wright can get healthy, do we know for sure he can't beat out Price for a rotation spot? Will Wright not be healthy again this year?

 

If the Red Sox play the Yankees in the playoffs, I don't see them using Price as a starter. But if Wright isn't healthy, they are in a bad spot and will probably be forced to use him. That will be a predictable disaster.

 

There's also a chance Pom regains his form and wins the 4 slot.

 

Really though, how many teams have 3 guys like Price, Wright and Pom, to fight it out for the 4 slot.

 

This is not a weak spot.

 

yes, the Astros have a better #4. yes, the Yankees will likely trade for a decent #3, but they still lack a good #4 right now.

 

Severino (#1 in ERA- at 47)

 

Sabathia (#19 in ERA- at 72)

 

S Gray (#84 in ERA- at 130!)

 

Let's look at just the AL and widen the sample to size to 73 SP'ers with 40+ IP, so far this season:

 

ERA-

1. Severino 47

2. Verlander 53

4. Sale 56

7. Cole 62

8. Morton 64

11. Sabathia 72

18. Porcello 84

23. McCullers 89

31. ERod 96

39. Price 100

 

46. Keuchel 105

52. Tanaka 110

63. Gray130

66. German 141

 

If any of the top 3 teams have an issue with starter depth, it's the Yanks- not us.

 

[reYoukilis]

Price stinks. It was a bad acquisition from the get go. In his prime with the Rays we used to get to him. When he was with Toronto the manager chose not to start him for the playoffs and he's stunk practically the whole time he's been here. We hear more drama about him than about good play with the Eckersely controversy and playing some game that's bad for his throwing arm.

 

And now we have the highest payroll and Yankees are full of young talent, not even top 4 in payroll. No good.

[moonslav59]

A question about the playoffs. If the Red Sox win the wild card and win the wild card game, do they go on to play the team with the best record in the next round? Or, does the best record play the worst record in the first round regardless of whether the worst team is the wild card winner or division winner?

 

Sadly, the WC play-in winner faces the team with the best record no matter what division they are in.

 

This does not seem fair to the top division winner, if they have to face the second best team in the divisional playoff round.

[Fan_since_Boggs]

But let's say the Red Sox burn Sale in the Wild Card game (they will be forced to use him in that game). Let's say the Red Sox play the Yankees in the next round (quite possible). That puts the Red Sox in a bad spot because they can't pitch Sale twice in the division round, forcing the Red Sox to rely heavily on Porcello or Rodriguez (one of the two will pitch 2 games in the division series). Price is pretty much an automatic loss against the Yankees, which is why I would turn to S.Wright if healthy.

 

Of course, the Red Sox would face the same problem if they win the wild card and have to face the Astros in the division round. The Red Sox burn Sale in the wild card game and will be at a major disadvantage in the next round. If Price could pitch like an ace, the Red Sox would be in good shape in the division round, but he isn't an ace anymore.

Edited July 2, 2018 by Fan_since_Boggs

[Fan_since_Boggs]

Sadly, the WC play-in winner faces the team with the best record no matter what division they are in.

 

This does not seem fair to the top division winner, if they have to face the second best team in the divisional playoff round.

 

Thanks for the clarification. True, the wild card winner could be a 100 win team this year, but the drop off from Sale to the next best Red Sox starter is so extreme that the wild card game would greatly weaken the Red Sox in the division round.

 

For example, the Yankees would rather play a weakened Red Sox team than the division winning Guardians in the first round--the Yankees would face Sale only once; in contrast, Kluber will pitch twice in the division round (if necessary).

Edited July 2, 2018 by Fan_since_Boggs

[moonslav59]

Thanks for the clarification. True, the wild card winner could be a 100 win team this year, but the drop off from Sale to the next best Red Sox starter is so extreme that the wild card game would greatly weaken the Red Sox in the division round.

 

For example, the Yankees would rather play a weakened Red Sox team than the Guardians in the first round. In the division round, the Yankees would face Sale only once, whereas they would face Kluber two times.

 

Good point.

[moonslav59]

But let's say the Red Sox burn Sale in the Wild Card game (they will be forced to use him in that game). Let's say the Red Sox play the Yankees in the next round (quite possible). That puts the Red Sox in a bad spot because they can't pitch Sale twice in the division round, forcing the Red Sox to rely heavily on Porcello or Rodriguez (one of the two will pitch 2 games in the division series). Price is pretty much an automatic loss against the Yankees, which is why I would turn to S.Wright if healthy.

 

Of course, the Red Sox would face the same problem if they win the wild card and have to face the Astros in the division round. The Red Sox burn Sale in the wild card game and will be at a major disadvantage in the next round. If Price could pitch like an ace, the Red Sox would be in good shape in the division round, but he isn't an ace anymore.

 

It might come down to the final day of the season on who wins the division, and who goes to the WC game.

 

If this is the case, both the Yanks and Red Sox might burn their best starter in game 162.

[notin]

Price stinks. It was a bad acquisition from the get go. In his prime with the Rays we used to get to him. When he was with Toronto the manager chose not to start him for the playoffs and he's stunk practically the whole time he's been here. We hear more drama about him than about good play with the Eckersely controversy and playing some game that's bad for his throwing arm.

 

And now we have the highest payroll and Yankees are full of young talent, not even top 4 in payroll. No good.

 

He started 3 post-season games for them and had some of his best post-season starts for the Blue Jays...

[Fan_since_Boggs]

It might come down to the final day of the season on who wins the division, and who goes to the WC game.

 

If this is the case, both the Yanks and Red Sox might burn their best starter in game 162.

 

That's true. And there is also a tremendous drop off from Severino to the next best Yankees starter. We will see who Cashman adds to the starting rotation. If he gets Degrom, the Yankees will have two aces, putting them in great shape for the playoffs. But I don't know if Cashman will pay the price for Degrom. If Cashman can't rip off a team, he usually doesn't make a deal.

[reYoukilis]

That's not what the stats say. He did well last year (and made a big deal out of it) but that's what he's supposed to do. Just like last night should've been a pitcher's duel. He doesn't have to win but come on. We could have just kept Lester.

 

And the stats I looked at does not say he did well in the playoffs for Toronto with ERA of 7.20 and 5.40.

[Fan_since_Boggs]

It was a disgraceful performance. Price just doesn't have the stuff to be anything more than a middling starting pitcher, a guy you can't rely on in the playoffs. Price belongs in the bullpen in the playoffs, but I don't know if the Red Sox can move him there. They need Wright or Pomeranz to step up and stay healthy. If that happens, I would expect Price to be in the bullpen in October, but I don't know if the Red Sox are going to get sufficient production out of Wright or Pomeranz this season.

 

There is something wrong with Pomeranz, his velocity is down. Even if the Red Sox use Wright in the bullpen (to ease up on the knee) for the rest of the regular season, maybe they can move him to the starting rotation in the playoffs. As long as Wright is pitching well, I would prefer that strategy over starting David Price in the playoffs.

Edited July 2, 2018 by Fan_since_Boggs

[Spudboy]

I hope to hell no Red Sox management person makes any decision based on one start.

 

There is absolutely no way Price does NOT start a playoff games, unless he's hurt.

 

Common sense.

[Kimmi]

Who cares about Price Octobers at this point. The Sox would be out of their minds to give Price a post season start after last night. He's going to the pen in October if the Sox have any sense at all. I don't see even how this in question any longer. He chokes in big game starts....PERIOD....end of story.

 

And yet he does not 'choke' in big games when pitching from the pen.

[reYoukilis]

And yet he does not 'choke' in big games when pitching from the pen.

240 million dollar relief pitcher. That wasn't in the script. May be the only option.

[S5Dewey]

I hope to hell no Red Sox management person makes any decision based on one start.

 

There is absolutely no way Price does NOT start a playoff games, unless he's hurt.

 

C'mon Moon. This isn't about one start. It's about his history. His career ERA is 3.20 and his playoff ERA is just over 5.00 in ten games. Even if you want to call ten games over his career a small sample size it can't be just dismissed offhand because every sample size means something if it's the only one you've got.

 

The fact is that if you send him out there to pitch in a playoff game you're hoping that that day's results will be an outlier.

 

I actually like having Price on the team. As I've said, he'll get you to the playoffs and in order to win it you first have to get there. Given that I'm undecided if his salary is too high. However, he would be my fourth choice to start a playoff game, which means the only start he gets is in an emergency situation.

[jung]

I can not argue for why Price has had some success out of the pen. Who cares. At his salary, that we end up with another pen arm in the post season is small consolation.

 

I can muse about the dif between pitching out of the pen and starting. Price has four days to think about his next start when he is a starter. It appears that he must be puking up his guts for those four days when they are in advance of a big game and he just goes out there and pitches like dog s***. This one, last night simply could not be mistaken for anything else but choking it up. This should no longer even be a discussion.

[moonslav59]

C'mon Moon. This isn't about one start. It's about his history. His career ERA is 3.20 and his playoff ERA is just over 5.00 in ten games. Even if you want to call ten games over his career a small sample size it can't be just dismissed offhand because every sample size means something if it's the only one you've got.

 

The fact is that if you send him out there to pitch in a playoff game you're hoping that that day's results will be an outlier.

 

I actually like having Price on the team. As I've said, he'll get you to the playoffs and in order to win it you first have to get there. Given that I'm undecided if his salary is too high. However, he would be my fourth choice to start a playoff game, which means the only start he gets is in an emergency situation.

 

Sorry, I don't fall for the line that once someone did something badly in tiny samples sizes spread out over several seasons, he is doomed to repeat his past forever and ever.

 

There are countless examples of players who started out poorly in their first few playoff games but then went on to do very well, and vice versa.

 

If we don't rest Sale the rest of the way, I have pretty close to the same confidence in him as I do in Price. Sale's second half woes are a much larger sample size that Prices scattered nightmares.

[kenmeister]

We're knocking Price today, but really aside from Sale no one has been good recently. Color me concerned.

[Bellhorn04]

There's something about Price that just isn't right. I think the media is completely in his head. This week he was making sarcastic comments to reporters about whether he was even going to pitch last night, referring back to the tingles game. Then he goes out and throws batting practice.

 

I'll be hoping for the best when he starts his next playoff game for us, needless to say. But I'll be nervous and just a little skeptical too.

[a700hitter]

We're knocking Price today, but really aside from Sale no one has been good recently. Color me concerned.

The weather finally has become consistently warm and the balls are flying out of the park. Everyone is in the same boat. Our rotation is still one of the best.

[Station 13]

There's something about Price that just isn't right. I think the media is completely in his head. This week he was making sarcastic comments to reporters about whether he was even going to pitch last night, referring back to the tingles game. Then he goes out and throws batting practice.

 

I'll be hoping for the best when he starts his next playoff game for us, needless to say. But I'll be nervous and just a little skeptical too.

 

It's really in his heads. No doubt.

[FredLynn]

We're knocking Price today, but really aside from Sale no one has been good recently. Color me concerned.

 

Not entirely accurate, even about Price. Yes, he laid an egg yesterday, but in his previous nine starts before yesterday he was 8-1 with a 2.72 ERA and a .638 OPSa.

ERod, before he got lit up by the Yankees, in his previous seven starts he was 6-1 with an ERA of 2.97 and an OPSa of .684. Even Porcello, in his previous 7 starts before his last debacle against the Angels, was 4-3 with an ERA of 3.67 and an OPSa of .665. All of these numbers have been very good. I am not really that concerned about our SP, but I do think that the Yankees are in Price's head.

[moonslav59]

There's something about Price that just isn't right. I think the media is completely in his head. This week he was making sarcastic comments to reporters about whether he was even going to pitch last night, referring back to the tingles game. Then he goes out and throws batting practice.

 

I'll be hoping for the best when he starts his next playoff game for us, needless to say. But I'll be nervous and just a little skeptical too.

 

Last 30 day SP'er ERA- (10+ IP/ red under 24 IP)

 

 

24 Sale

32 Severino

46 Sabathia

46 Loaisiga

81 Porcello

96 Wright

104 Tanaka

107 ERod

110 Price

128 Gray

 

 

[moonslav59]

Not entirely accurate, even about Price. Yes, he laid an egg yesterday, but in his previous nine starts before yesterday he was 8-1 with a 2.72 ERA and a .638 OPSa.

ERod, before he got lit up by the Yankees, in his previous seven starts he was 6-1 with an ERA of 2.97 and an OPSa of .684. Even Porcello, in his previous 7 starts before his last debacle against the Angels, was 4-3 with an ERA of 3.67 and an OPSa of .665. All of these numbers have been very good. I am not really that concerned about our SP, but I do think that the Yankees are in Price's head.

 

Yes, it just happens that many of our starters got shelled in their very last start but were doing pretty sell beforehand. Include the injured Wright on that list.

 

I guess I just never can understand why so many people subscribe the philosophy that a pitcher is only as valuable as his last start.

 

[Natick to NC]

The weather finally has become consistently warm and the balls are flying out of the park. Everyone is in the same boat. Our rotation is still one of the best.

 

Maybe best explanation but it's rational ....I hate it !!!

[Kimmi]

Not entirely accurate, even about Price. Yes, he laid an egg yesterday, but in his previous nine starts before yesterday he was 8-1 with a 2.72 ERA and a .638 OPSa.

ERod, before he got lit up by the Yankees, in his previous seven starts he was 6-1 with an ERA of 2.97 and an OPSa of .684. Even Porcello, in his previous 7 starts before his last debacle against the Angels, was 4-3 with an ERA of 3.67 and an OPSa of .665. All of these numbers have been very good. I am not really that concerned about our SP, but I do think that the Yankees are in Price's head.

 

Good post Fred. I am not concerned about our SPs either, including Price, provided they stay healthy.

 

I don't think it's necessarily the Yankees that are in Price's head, but rather the media and fan scrutiny surrounding his Yankees starts, though that difference might be subtle. Price needs to stop reading Twitter, or whatever it is that he reads.

[Natick to NC]

Think we are 1 starter away .Sale is Batman we need Robin .

[vegasbob]

Yes, it just happens that many of our starters got shelled in their very last start but were doing pretty sell beforehand. Include the injured Wright on that list.

 

I guess I just never can understand why so many people subscribe the philosophy that a pitcher is only as valuable as his last start.

 

 

The pitcher is only as valuable as his next start if he can overcome whatever blew up in his last start . Let's see what Erod and Price do next time out. I think the real gist of it is that eventually you will need to beat Houston and/ or New York to be in the Series. Price and Erod will have ???? in their own heads , Porcello is sometimes dominant but not always. It's Sale who you can count on to bring the mental and physical aspect of winning a big game. Don't fully forget that most of these guys were major participants in the Cleveland and Houston ALDS over the past two seasons. How did that work for you ?