A Realistic View at 2018: Part II

[Nick]

Good points, but had I told you 4 weeks ago that we could replace Pom and Kelly in 2019 with Eovaldi and Brassier, what would you have said?

 

We will also need other pieces, like finding the next, cheap Pearce and maybe a 2Bman.

 

Ultimately we needed a piece to replace Hanley. Pearce was a good get. I give credit to many here that made a case for getting rid of Hanley 'too early' without a replacement. Fortunately for management Pearce is working out well.

 

Brassier looks solid. I also thought Maddox (?) looked solid last year. I guess he's hurt. Just never know about relievers.

 

As Kimmi has stated often other than a closer, we don't need to overspend on bullpen guys. You simply have more options there than starters. Perhaps Thornburg will step in while Kelly figures things out.

 

I don't think Pedey will ever be 100% player. He's going to need rest more and more. I see him playing 100 games, max. He'll get hurt. Whatever age he is, he's old. He's abused his body on the field and it's caught up with him. He's not a great athlete (think track and field 'athlete').

[Bellhorn04]

As Kimmi has stated often other than a closer, we don't need to overspend on bullpen guys.

 

Except Kimmi doesn't say 'other than a closer'. She thinks any relief pitcher making more than MLB minimum is overpaid.

[Nick]

Except Kimmi doesn't say 'other than a closer'. She thinks any relief pitcher making more than MLB minimum is overpaid.

 

Maybe that's what I WANTED to hear...lol:cool:

[oldtimer]

We have the best OF with Betts, JBJ and Beni. Throw in JD as the 4th OF and it's a solid unit.

 

This team has been truly amazing. I'm surprised when we lose. Thornburg pitching better of late is very encouraging news.

 

I really like our outfield as well.None better. and I agree about the positive thoughts about Thornburg and now Eovaldi showed well on his first outing.

 

The trade deadline is upon us at 4:00 pm tomorrow and word is that we are looking at many possibilies for setup men to bolster that part of our team and also possibly Beltre or some other infielder who can help us through the busy schedule ahead while some of our DL players recover. I will wait for front office announcements with interest in how they decide to go azt the deadline.

[bkzwhitestrican]

OF WAR

 

Betts - 6.6

Benintendo - 3.4

JBJ - 1.2

 

Total - 11.2

 

Judge - 5.3

Gardner - 2.8

Hicks - 3.3

 

Total - 11.4

 

However if you throw in Martinez (4.5) vs. Stanton (2.7) then it's not very close.

[Kimmi]

Except Kimmi doesn't say 'other than a closer'. She thinks any relief pitcher making more than MLB minimum is overpaid.

 

LOL I didn't go quite to that extreme, but your point is correct. There are better ways to spend our resources than on relief pitching, including closers. Please note (not you in particular) that I am not saying that bullpens are not important.

[Kimmi]

OF WAR

 

Betts - 6.6

Benintendo - 3.4

JBJ - 1.2

 

Total - 11.2

 

Judge - 5.3

Gardner - 2.8

Hicks - 3.3

 

Total - 11.4

 

However if you throw in Martinez (4.5) vs. Stanton (2.7) then it's not very close.

 

I'm assuming that your numbers are bWAR.

 

Using fWAR:

 

Betts - 6.5

Beni - 3.7

JBJ - 1.3

 

Total - 11.5

 

Judge - 5.0

Gardner - 2.3

Hicks - 3.2

 

Total - 10.5

 

Plus, our guys are way cooler.

[bkzwhitestrican]

I'm assuming that your numbers are bWAR.

 

Using fWAR:

 

Betts - 6.5

Beni - 3.7

JBJ - 1.3

 

Total - 11.5

 

Judge - 5.0

Gardner - 2.3

Hicks - 3.2

 

Total - 10.5

 

Plus, our guys are way cooler.

 

I believe I was using combined WAR but I could be wrong, I'm kind of an advanced stat noob. But if we're focused on fielding:

 

UZR/150

 

Betts 16.1

Beni -1.2

JBJ 11.2

 

Total 26.1

 

Judge 16.4

Gardner 13.0

Hicks 6.0

 

Total - 35.4

 

And I don't know if your OF still does that thing where one person poses while the other two pretend to take pictures, but that was extremely lame

[notin]

I'm assuming that your numbers are bWAR.

 

Using fWAR:

 

Betts - 6.5

Beni - 3.7

JBJ - 1.3

 

Total - 11.5

 

Judge - 5.0

Gardner - 2.3

Hicks - 3.2

 

Total - 10.5

 

Plus, our guys are way cooler.

 

Cooler than Aaron Hicks?

[Jasonbay44]

I'm not singling you out, but my guess is, if Eovaldi has a bad start or two, some sentiments will change.

 

I mean I don't expect him to be perfect, and a few bad starts are expected, but I like his stuff a lot. And like I said, price pending he's an excellent bottom of the rotation guy.

[moonslav59]

I mean I don't expect him to be perfect, and a few bad starts are expected, but I like his stuff a lot. And like I said, price pending he's an excellent bottom of the rotation guy.

 

I'm just saying, before the trade and his last start, who here would have been advocating signing him for 2019?

[moonslav59]

Fangraphs total OF team comps:

 

WAR

1. BOS 15.4

2. NYY 13.2

 

OPS

1. BOS .906 (142 wRC+)

2. NYY .845 (129 wRC+)

 

UZR150

1. NYY 11.3

5. BOS 6.2

 

DRS

3. NYY 27

12. BOS 8

 

Baserunning

1. BOS 12.1

4. NYY 7.4

 

[Nick]

According to Cot's Baseball Contracts, we're now over the second threashhold by $354K, thus dropping our draft position ten spots lower. As I said previously, I don't believe it's a big deal when you finish the year with the best record. Monetary penalty of additional 42.5% on $354K is peanuts.

 

Basically every contract we acquire going forward is going to cost us 1.425 times the amount of the traded player contract assumed.

[moonslav59]

According to Cot's Baseball Contracts, we're now over the second threashhold by $354K, thus dropping our draft position ten spots lower. As I said previously, I don't believe it's a big deal when you finish the year with the best record. Monetary penalty of additional 42.5% on $354K is peanuts.

 

Basically every contract we acquire going forward is going to cost us 1.425 times the amount of the traded player contract assumed.

 

Maybe we dump a salary to get us back under. We could trade Pom in August. We might deal Holt or Nunez after Devers returns.

[jacksonianmarch]

I mean I don't expect him to be perfect, and a few bad starts are expected, but I like his stuff a lot. And like I said, price pending he's an excellent bottom of the rotation guy.

 

He’s got stuff that is intoxicating as a fan. You see him pumping 98 with movement and a good slider and you start thinking 20 game winner and sub 3 ERA. Then you see Bad Nate and you wonder how a guy with his stuff gets hit so hard. Don’t fall for the trap. He’s your #4 starter and will be a #5 when ERod returns. Don’t expect him to be more than that

[jacksonianmarch]

According to Cot's Baseball Contracts, we're now over the second threashhold by $354K, thus dropping our draft position ten spots lower. As I said previously, I don't believe it's a big deal when you finish the year with the best record. Monetary penalty of additional 42.5% on $354K is peanuts.

 

Basically every contract we acquire going forward is going to cost us 1.425 times the amount of the traded player contract assumed.

 

The tax over the final threshold is 62%

[oldtimer]

Maybe we dump a salary to get us back under. We could trade Pom in August. We might deal Holt or Nunez after Devers returns.

 

I expect Pom will show us tonight that he isn't capable of being a starter unless he regains more health and more velocity. I even question him in the BP. Too bad as a healthy Pom pitching as well as he did last year would really help the team. I doubt if many would flock to take him in a trade. I wouldn't trade either Holt or Nunez as we need them for the stretch run.

[Bellhorn04]

He’s got stuff that is intoxicating as a fan. You see him pumping 98 with movement and a good slider and you start thinking 20 game winner and sub 3 ERA. Then you see Bad Nate and you wonder how a guy with his stuff gets hit so hard. Don’t fall for the trap. He’s your #4 starter and will be a #5 when ERod returns. Don’t expect him to be more than that

 

He's still relatively young though. Maybe he just needs some help with his focus or whatever the issue is.

[Spudboy]

I expect Pom will show us tonight that he isn't capable of being a starter unless he regains more health and more velocity. I even question him in the BP. Too bad as a healthy Pom pitching as well as he did last year would really help the team. I doubt if many would flock to take him in a trade. I wouldn't trade either Holt or Nunez as we need them for the stretch run.

 

My feelings exactly on both subjects.

[bkzwhitestrican]

Fangraphs total OF team comps:

 

WAR

1. BOS 15.4

2. NYY 13.2

 

OPS

1. BOS .906 (142 wRC+)

2. NYY .845 (129 wRC+)

 

UZR150

1. NYY 11.3

5. BOS 6.2

 

DRS

3. NYY 27

12. BOS 8

 

Baserunning

1. BOS 12.1

4. NYY 7.4

 

 

Those numbers include JD Martinez's full season stats even though we was DH for about 60% of his games. I mean it doesn't matter in the grand scheme of things since the guy is still on your team, but if we're only talking about top outfields then lumping him in there is a little deceptive.

[moonslav59]

I expect Pom will show us tonight that he isn't capable of being a starter unless he regains more health and more velocity. I even question him in the BP. Too bad as a healthy Pom pitching as well as he did last year would really help the team. I doubt if many would flock to take him in a trade. I wouldn't trade either Holt or Nunez as we need them for the stretch run.

 

I've not given up on Pom, yet, and I never feel like one game tells all.

 

If we are over the tax limit by %350K, all we need to do is trade Pom and get the team to pay $400K more than who we replace Pom on the roster.

 

Some team will take him at that rate.

 

I'd like to keep Holt & Nunez, too, but with Kinsler on board, Devers returning soo and Lin in AAA, I'm not sure that added depth is worth falling 10 slots in the draft. We can only have all of these guys on the roster in September anyways. Once the playoffs come, someone will be off the roster anyways.

[dannycater]

Forgot one of the great arguments of the past, but I think it was...catcher's ERA. Go Tommy Harper!!! and El Tiante!

[dannycater]

Bandwagoning or not, I can't even try to criticize anything DD or Cora has done for this team.

[moonslav59]

Those numbers include JD Martinez's full season stats even though we was DH for about 60% of his games. I mean it doesn't matter in the grand scheme of things since the guy is still on your team, but if we're only talking about top outfields then lumping him in there is a little deceptive.

 

Yes, I forgot about how (and why) fangraphs does that. BTW, JD has played in the OF about half as much as JBJ, so his numbers as an OF, when he plays there, should count.

 

Individual:

 

WAR

6.3 Betts

5.0 Judge

 

3.2 Hicks

1.2 JBJ

 

3.6 Beni

2.9 Stanton

 

Baseball Reference has these OF stats:

 

BOS .292 59 201 (.373/.517/.890)

 

NYY .262 62 170 (.354/.472/.826)

 

 

.

[notin]

He’s got stuff that is intoxicating as a fan. You see him pumping 98 with movement and a good slider and you start thinking 20 game winner and sub 3 ERA. Then you see Bad Nate and you wonder how a guy with his stuff gets hit so hard. Don’t fall for the trap. He’s your #4 starter and will be a #5 when ERod returns. Don’t expect him to be more than that

 

Do we really have a choice?

[kenmeister]

Btw, the Sox finally eclipsed the Astros today in Run Differential. They are +178 and the Astros are +177.

[Bellhorn04]

Do we really have a choice?

 

Yes. I'm expecting his debut of 7 scoreless to be the norm.

[FredLynn]

I've not given up on Pom, yet, and I never feel like one game tells all.

 

If we are over the tax limit by %350K, all we need to do is trade Pom and get the team to pay $400K more than who we replace Pom on the roster.

 

Some team will take him at that rate.

 

I'd like to keep Holt & Nunez, too, but with Kinsler on board, Devers returning soo and Lin in AAA, I'm not sure that added depth is worth falling 10 slots in the draft. We can only have all of these guys on the roster in September anyways. Once the playoffs come, someone will be off the roster anyways.

 

You are about the only guy who still has any confidence in Pomeranz. Personally, I think he is toast this year. He has never shown us anything that could help this club-and its nearly August. How much longer should we wait? If he cannot win convincingly tonight I would like to see him released-not go to the pen-released and free up a roster spot for someone who can actually help this club win a ring.

[cp176]

Pomeranz needs to be able to throw the ball harder than he has so far this year to make any secondary pitch effective. If his velocity is there, he has the ability to help any team. I think that he knows what is at stake tonight.

[mvp 78]

Pom's problem isn't the velocity. The FB velo is dipping, but so are the rest of his pitches. If they were all converging to the same speed, it'd be an issue.

 

His problem is that his curveball has been an absolute mess (-10 runs above average). It used to be one of his trademark pitches, but it's just not working right now as he can no longer locate it and is leaving it up in the zone. He's never generated much swing and miss on that pitch, so when he leaves it up it's getting hammered.

 

The BABIP on his fastball is only 211, for his curveball it's 469.

 

The sinker that he throws isn't great and generates a lot of fly balls so it isn't good enough for him to be a two pitch pitcher. He needs to figure out that curve. If he can't, he becomes a DFA candidate IMO.