2018 Prospect Mega Thread

[sk7326]

Top 20 fWAR 2014-2018 pitchers

 

1. Clayton Kershaw (High School)

2. Corey Kluber (College)

3. Chris Sale (College)

4. Max Scherzer (College)

5. Jacob DeGrom (College)

6. David Price (College)

7. Zack Greinke (High School)

8. Justin Verlander (College)

9. Jake Arrieta (College)

10. Carlos Carrasco (Intl)

11. Stephen Strasburg (College)

12. Jose Quintana (Intl)

13. Gerrit Cole (College)

14. Jon Lester (High School)

15. Chris Archer (High School)

16. Dallas Kuechel (College)

17. Madison Bumgarner (High School)

18. Johnny Cueto (Intl)

19. Cole Hamels (High School)

20. Trevor Bauer (College)

 

11 of the top 20 here were college players. Of the 6 high schoolers - only Lester and Archer were not drafted in the first round. So there seems to be a slight bias to college success here - much more stark trend at the top of the list. The physical maturity matters. College kids in general are safer, but the upside for college pitchers is still really high, especially compared to say college middle field prospects.

[OH FOY]

Wonder how these kids were Scouted in High School and College? You think the Scouts used the fWAR stat, to determine how good they would be? Edited September 15, 2018 by OH FOY!

[mvp 78]

@MLBPipeline

 

Here you go, folks: The year-end Top 100 Prospects list: https://atmlb.com/2IzbVk9

 

@redsoxstats

 

Chavis returns to lists. #69. Nice.

[moonslav59]

@MLBPipeline

 

Here you go, folks: The year-end Top 100 Prospects list: https://atmlb.com/2IzbVk9

 

@redsoxstats

 

Chavis returns to lists. #69. Nice.

 

Why reward a guy for using steroids?

 

Kopech is #19.

 

No Yankee in top 30.

[Carpin]

Why reward a guy for using steroids?

 

Kopech is #19.

 

No Yankee in top 30.

 

it was not a good year for the Yanks in the minors, still like the depth we have there.

 

I'm happy to see Loaisiga in the top 100, the sleeper prospect for next year is Luis Medina

[Carpin]

Padres with 10 prospect in the top 100, never seen a team with so many prospects in the list

[jacksonianmarch]

4 in the top 100 for the Yanks. 2 guys between 30 and 50.

[mvp 78]

Why reward a guy for using steroids?

 

Kopech is #19.

 

No Yankee in top 30.

 

Because he came back and still played well?

[moonslav59]

Because he came back and still played well?

 

You think steroid effects ware off that quickly?

[Carpin]

Why reward a guy for using steroids?

 

Kopech is #19.

 

No Yankee in top 30.

 

I know he was suspended, which substance did they find in his tests?

[mvp 78]

I know he was suspended, which substance did they find in his tests?

 

He was caught under the shroud of Turinabol.

[mvp 78]

You think steroid effects ware off that quickly?

 

You think baseball has a fairly established discipline policy?

[moonslav59]

You think baseball has a fairly established discipline policy?

 

Baseball's not picking the top prospects.

 

But, no I don't think they have a clear and established policy. I'd ban a player for life. That would likely stop it.

[mvp 78]

Baseball's not picking the top prospects.

 

But, no I don't think they have a clear and established policy. I'd ban a player for life. That would likely stop it.

 

I don't agree. Too much money is at stake. Some people would still risk it.

[moonslav59]

I don't agree. Too much money is at stake. Some people would still risk it.

 

Let 'em try.

 

Probably only players who know they can never make the bigs without juicing would take the risk.

 

Some may try new, undetectable methods.

[mvp 78]

Let 'em try.

 

Probably only players who know they can never make the bigs without juicing would take the risk.

 

Some may try new, undetectable methods.

 

Or players that have nothing to lose coming from a tougher background.

[moonslav59]

Or players that have nothing to lose coming from a tougher background.

 

They might have more to lose.

[Bellhorn04]

I think the PED penalties are harsh enough. The question is how effective the detection is.

[mvp 78]

https://twitter.com/2080_John/status/1053145063700590593

 

Who here likes dingers?

[mvp 78]

Baseball America Top Ten

 

https://www.overthemonster.com/2018/11/1/18051332/red-sox-top-prospects-dalbec-chavis-casas-groome-hernandez

 

Bobby Dalbec

Michael Chavis

Darwinzon Hernandez

Jay Groome

Triston Casas

Bryan Mata

Tanner Houck

Mike Shawaryn

Antoni Flores

C.J. Chatham

 

Flores is the name to watch this year if you’re looking for a prospect with a chance to explode onto the national scene. Granted, I wouldn’t be expecting it in 2019, but the tools are there. The shortstop was part of the 2017 July 2 class and was a quick promotion to the GCL in his first pro season. Unfortunately, injuries cut his season short but the 18-year-old will be at full strength next year. Flores is a strong bat with a good chance to stick at shortstop and play the position well, and if his development goes well he could be at least a top three guy in this system by this point next year.

[cp176]

I think that our much maligned farm system will very likely surprise a lot of people this year. It isn't that bad.

[notin]

I think that our much maligned farm system will very likely surprise a lot of people this year. It isn't that bad.

 

I think it's pretty bland compared to other systems. And since Groome hasn't pitched, the Sox might break or tie last year's record for fewest top 100 prospects in team history. The fact that Groome has only 62 unimpressive IP in 3 years and still makes the top 5 on everyone's list of Sox prospects should speak volumes about this system...

[cp176]

I think it's pretty bland compared to other systems. And since Groome hasn't pitched, the Sox might break or tie last year's record for fewest top 100 prospects in team history. The fact that Groome has only 62 unimpressive IP in 3 years and still makes the top 5 on everyone's list of Sox prospects should speak volumes about this system...

 

We will just have to wait and see how they do. I'm going to go the positive route.

[notin]

We will just have to wait and see how they do. I'm going to go the positive route.

 

Being positive won’t make any of them better players.

 

It’s not a good farm, and the reason is simple - assets were moved or promoted to help theMLB club. That’s ok. That’s the purpose of a farm system. But there’s no reason to be blind about. Every expert will tell you it’s among the worst, and those experts are wrong a lot, but unfortunately it’s usually the other way - where a player they think is good doesn’t turn out.

 

It’s not time to rebuild yet, but having another trade asset or two would help the current run....

[moonslav59]

I think DD has done a better job than I expected given the picks he got and the restricted international market he faced.

 

That being said, I'm not impressed by our farm system. I'm not expecting much help for at least 2 years.

[notin]

I think DD has done a better job than I expected given the picks he got and the restricted international market he faced.

 

That being said, I'm not impressed by our farm system. I'm not expecting much help for at least 2 years.

 

I think he’s done better than I thought, too. But this farm is undeniably weak. The Sox have very, very little above A-ball. And the bulk of the players in A-ball won’t become anything just through normal minor league attrition. Right now, they have a handful of prospects that could be considered MLB-ready, and even that includes players like Sam Travis, whose ceiling is “bench bat on a bad team” and whose best skill is his ability to be paid minimum wage...

[cp176]

Being positive won’t make any of them better players.

 

It’s not a good farm, and the reason is simple - assets were moved or promoted to help theMLB club. That’s ok. That’s the purpose of a farm system. But there’s no reason to be blind about. Every expert will tell you it’s among the worst, and those experts are wrong a lot, but unfortunately it’s usually the other way - where a player they think is good doesn’t turn out.

 

It’s not time to rebuild yet, but having another trade asset or two would help the current run....

 

 

Really - you don't think that just saying that they will be good won't make them good? Everyday you post I learn something new!

 

Constantly beating a negative tone does no one any good. I have virtually no interest in what the experts think or project. My opinions quite often do not align with yours. I am ok with that. I absolutely believe that DD is in the process of creating a stronger farm and that he has gotten off to a good start. That is my opinion.

Everyday in my personal life, I am reminded of what the f***ing experts think and say and everyday I see many of them proven wrong. i am willing to watch things play out before I formulate an opinion of anything based upon any experts projection. It is kind of like a weather forecast to me. Im not going to cancel a day of school based on an experts projection. They are wrong too often.

[mvp 78]

I think it's pretty bland compared to other systems. And since Groome hasn't pitched, the Sox might break or tie last year's record for fewest top 100 prospects in team history. The fact that Groome has only 62 unimpressive IP in 3 years and still makes the top 5 on everyone's list of Sox prospects should speak volumes about this system...

 

It says more about what people still think about Groome's potential than anything about the system.

[moonslav59]

I find it strange that so many people poo-poo'd Espinoza as a long shot after we dealt him away and now look to Groome as a possible savior.

 

Our farm is weak. I don't think that is being pessimistic. I think it is being realistic.

 

I have hopes for several prospects, but the very best ones are so far away, it's hard to feel that confident.

[Bellhorn04]

I find it strange that so many people poo-poo'd Espinoza as a long shot after we dealt him away and now look to Groome as a possible savior.

 

Find me these so many people who look to Groome as a possible savior.