2018 Prospect Mega Thread

[mvp 78]

Baseball America's prospect rankings are out.

 

Red Sox Top 10 Prospects

1. Jay Groome, LHP

2. Michael Chavis, 3B

3. Tanner Houck, RHP

4. Bryan Mata, RHP

5. Cole Brannen, OF

6. Darwinzon Hernandez, LHP

7. Sam Travis, 1B

8. Mike Shawaryn, RHP

9. Alex Scherff, RHP

10. Marco Hernandez, SS/2B

[mvp 78]

Compared with SoxProspects list

 

1. Groome (1)

2. Chavis (2)

3. Houck (4)

4. Mata (3)

5. Brannen (7)

6. D Hernandez (14)

7. Travis (5)

8. Shawaryn (8)

9. Scherff (9)

10. M. Hernandez (NR graduated)

 

No love for Ockimey or Beeks. They must really like Darwinzon's FB?

[mvp 78]

SYSTEM OVERVIEW

Strengths: In a system thinned by trades and graduations, the Red Sox still have an interesting mix of pitching prospects, led by No. 1 Jay Groome and 2017 first-rounder Tanner Houck, though most are either far away or could wind up in the bullpen. Corner infield bats such as Michael Chavis, Josh Ockimey, Sam Travis and Danny Diaz provide some power potential.

 

Weaknesses: The Red Sox lack for up-the-middle positions players. Boston might not have a future regular at catcher, second base, shortstop or center field in the system. Graduating Andrew Benintendi and Rafael Devers and trading premium prospects like Manuel Margot, Yoan Moncada, Michael Kopech and Anderson Espinoza—as well as trades of lesser prospects—has thinned what was one of the deepest system in baseball a few years ago.

 

BEST TOOLS

Best Hitter for Average: Sam Travis.

Best Power Hitter: Michael Chavis.

Best Strike-Zone Discipline: Josh Ockimey.

Fastest Baserunner: Cole Brannen.

Best Athlete: Kervin Suarez.

Best Fastball: Darwinzon Hernandez.

Best Curveball: Jay Groome.

Best Slider: Tanner Houck.

Best Changeup: Ty Buttrey.

Best Control: Bryan Mata.

Best Defensive Catcher: Austin Rei.

Best Defensive INF: Antoni Flores.

Best INF Arm: Bobby Dalbec.

Best Defensive OF: Tate Matheny.

Best OF Arm: Yoan Aybar.

 

TOP PROSPECTS OF THE DECADE

(Listed with 2017 organization)

 

2008: RHP Clay Buchholz (Phillies) | WAR: 15.5

2009: 1B Lars Anderson (Japan) | WAR: N/A

2010: OF Ryan Westmoreland (Did Not Play) | WAR: N/A

2011: SS Jose Iglesias (Tigers) | WAR: 7.0

2012: 3B Will Middlebrooks (Rangers) | WAR: 1.4

2013: SS Xander Bogaerts (Red Sox) | WAR: 11.1

2014: SS Xander Bogaerts (Red Sox) | WAR: **

2015: C Blake Swihart (Red Sox) | WAR: 0.6

2016: 3B Yoan Moncada (White Sox) | WAR: 1.5

2017: OF Andrew Benintendi (Red Sox) | WAR: 3.1

 

 

 

TOP DRAFT PICKS OF THE DECADE

(Listed with 2017 organization)

 

2008: RHP Casey Kelly (Giants) | WAR: 1.5

2009: OF Reymond Fuentes (Diamondbacks) | WAR: 0.3

2010: 2B Kolbrin Vitek (Did Not Play) | WAR: N/A

2011: RHP Matt Barnes (Red Sox) | WAR: 0.8

2012: SS Deven Marrero (Red Sox) | WAR: 0.1

2013: LHP Trey Ball (Red Sox) | WAR: N/A

2014: SS Michael Chavis (Red Sox) | Top 10

2015: OF Andrew Benintendi (Red Sox) | WAR: 3.1

2016: LHP Jay Groome (Red Sox) | Top 10

2017: RHP Tanner Houck (Red Sox) | Top 10

[mvp 78]

Speier goes into more detail here:

 

https://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/redsox/2017/12/18/what-left-red-sox-farm-system-here-are-top-prospects/zPy507YNIMZcgt19C15v4H/story.html

 

Darwinzon:

 

WHY HE’S RANKED HERE: Few in the Red Sox system can match the present stuff of Hernandez, who unleashes mid-90s fastballs (topping out at 97) from a low three-quarters arm slot. He’s leaned heavily on a curveball throughout his career, but in his final start of the year for Greenville, he finally committed to a slider that looked like an absolute wipeout offering

 

PROJECTION: If everything clicks and he realizes how to employ a full three- to four-pitch mix (fastball, slider, curveball, changeup), Hernandez could be a starter in the mold of Francisco Liriano, albeit one who is likely capped as a mid-rotation starter by his limited command. At the least, he has the power stuff and aggressive attack plan – he hunts swings-and-misses with his fastball – to be a formidable back-end reliever.

 

QUESTIONS: Will Hernandez continue the sort of control gains he made in 2017, when he dropped his walk rate from 6.7 per nine innings to 4.3 per nine? If not, can he ever assume the innings total necessary to be a starter? Will he make the necessary progress to realize how to sequence his pitches to thrive, or is he more of a let-it-fly guy who is suited for the late innings?

[mvp 78]

Other notes:

 

Scouts see Groome as a teenage Jon Lester.

 

"Inadequate offseason conditioning" was an issue with Groome's injury riddled year.

 

Chavis is undersized at 1b, but looked good in AFL.

 

Comparables to Chavis are Moustakas and Ron Cey.

 

Houck has a floor of Joe Smith or Carson Smith, but is still intriguing as a starter if he can develop a third pitch.

 

Mata is a young three pitch pitcher, but where does he project physically? Great command though.

 

Brannen has a Brett Gardner starter kit of tools, but maybe too passive at the plate.

 

Travis couldn't get on an offensive roll in 2017 due to rehab from injuries and being on the PAW/BOS shuttle. When will the power show?

 

If Shawaryn develops a changeup, he could become a 4th starter.

 

Scherff is just risky due to age, but has a high ceiling and has advanced FB command for his age. No professional pitches thrown yet.

 

Marco is at worst a bench player, but could be an everyday 2b depending on how he bounces back from injury.

 

Not much new there, but it's a good jumping off point for anyone who hasn't been paying much attention after the team gutted the system.

[mvp 78]

https://www.overthemonster.com/2017/12/18/16790094/red-sox-top-prospects-baseball-america

 

The five-six pairing was the most surprising of the entire list to me as both are higher than I was expecting to see. Brannen rounds out the top five despite just being selected in the second round this past summer and putting up fine but unspectacular numbers in his first professional season. That being said, the tools are there and as BA points out he is the best chance the Red Sox have at having a top prospect at an up-the-middle position. Hernandez, meanwhile, was quietly very strong in his first full season in the minors. It’s all about the fastball for the southpaw, and BA points out that the dominance of that pitch may have hindered the development of his secondaries. There’s a chance he’s a long-term reliever, but BA at least is a believer in the potential for a mid-rotation arm.

 

Finally, there is an interesting mix in the last four spots on this list. I’d expect to see Travis a couple spots higher on most lists this winter, though on my own personal list I probably wouldn’t even have him in the top ten. BA still believes there is some power to be tapped into, but acknowledges he is running out of time to show it. Shawaryn, meanwhile, is not someone they seem overly excited about though they do see some potential for an innings-eating number four starter. While not thrilling, that’s a valuable piece. Scherff, meanwhile, hasn’t pitched at all as a pro but has big-time potential and could be one of the biggest risers in the system. Finally, there is Hernandez, who I forgot was even still prospect-eligible. I’m a bigger Hernandez fan than most, though I agree with BA’s assessment that he’s either a second-division second baseman or a good utility man.

[cp176]

I just find it very encouraging that 6 of our top ten prospects are pitchers. Either our prospects just aren't very good or someone has seen the importance of developing our own pitchers these days.

[jacksonianmarch]

I wouldn't use the term not very good. I would use the term very green. Your closest pitcher on that list is Shawaryn and he just had half a season at A+ which wasn't entirely dominant. The rest are low A or lower.

[mvp 78]

I wouldn't use the term not very good. I would use the term very green. Your closest pitcher on that list is Shawaryn and he just had half a season at A+ which wasn't entirely dominant. The rest are low A or lower.

 

Yup. The biggest take away is that there aren't any top prospects close enough to help the major league team for the next few years. That's the sacrifice you make to bring in Pomeranz, Sale and Kimbrel tho.

[Kimmi]

Yup. The biggest take away is that there aren't any top prospects close enough to help the major league team for the next few years. That's the sacrifice you make to bring in Pomeranz, Sale and Kimbrel tho.

 

I am biting my tongue.

[mvp 78]

I am biting my tongue.

 

They'll be ready when we need them to be ready. I'd rather have Sale, Kimbrel and Pomeranz than what we gave up.

[notin]

I just find it very encouraging that 6 of our top ten prospects are pitchers. Either our prospects just aren't very good or someone has seen the importance of developing our own pitchers these days.

 

I don't think it is because we are suddenly developing great pitching nearly as much as those are the players who are defaulting into the top 10. If the Sox are lucky, maybe 2 of them will actually have a career longer than one month of service time....

[notin]

I am biting my tongue.

 

Chew on a Cliff bar instead

[moonslav59]

They'll be ready when we need them to be ready. I'd rather have Sale, Kimbrel and Pomeranz than what we gave up.

 

We may need a SP'er next year, if Pom bolts and our budget won't allow a decent replacement signing.

 

Who might be ready for 2019?

 

Shawaryn or Beeks?

 

Johnson, Thompson or Lakins?

 

Hmmm....

 

Hopefully, Smith or Thornburg can replace Kimbrel without a big drop-off, but neither have that many years of team control left. Top closers are costly on the open market these days. We may see a young pitcher fill in here by 2020, but that's being, perhaps, overly optimistic.

[moonslav59]

I don't think it is because we are suddenly developing great pitching nearly as much as those are the players who are defaulting into the top 10. If the Sox are lucky, maybe 2 of them will actually have a career longer than one month of service time....

 

With our track record on pitching prospects, I'd probably feel better if our top 10 had no pitchers. That way, we could trade our positional prospects for the next Chris Sale.

[moonslav59]

BTW, great work MVP. Thanks for all the info.

[moonslav59]

Chew on a Cliff bar instead

 

Good one!

[moonslav59]

Baseball Prospectus has this for our top 10:

 

1. Groome

 

2. Chavis

 

3. Mata

 

4. Houck

 

5. Ockimey

 

6. Shawaryn

 

7. Brannen

 

8. Scherff

 

9. Lorenzo Cedrola (Ranked 31st on soxprospects.com)

 

10. Travis

 

[Kimmi]

Chew on a Cliff bar instead

 

Ha ha. Nice!

[moonslav59]

I think the appearance of D Hernandez and L Cedrola in the top 10 shows how close to each other non top prospects can be. They are very hit-or-miss.

 

Groome, Chavis, Houck and Mata seem to be the consensus top 4 that are separated by a wide gap between them and the others.

[mvp 78]

We may need a SP'er next year, if Pom bolts and our budget won't allow a decent replacement signing.

 

Who might be ready for 2019?

 

Shawaryn or Beeks?

 

Johnson, Thompson or Lakins?

 

Hmmm....

 

Hopefully, Smith or Thornburg can replace Kimbrel without a big drop-off, but neither have that many years of team control left. Top closers are costly on the open market these days. We may see a young pitcher fill in here by 2020, but that's being, perhaps, overly optimistic.

 

If Pom bolts, the rotation will be Sale/Price/Porcello/ERod/Wright. I think Beeks deserves some spot starts this year at least.

[mvp 78]

Baseball Prospectus has this for our top 10:

 

1. Groome

 

2. Chavis

 

3. Mata

 

4. Houck

 

5. Ockimey

 

6. Shawaryn

 

7. Brannen

 

8. Scherff

 

9. Lorenzo Cedrola (Ranked 31st on soxprospects.com)

 

10. Travis

 

 

Ockimey is probably a little high there. If he's going to be an impact bat, he needs to take a big jump this year.

 

Cedrola? That's a weird one.

 

I do like looking at how all the rankings match up. Looks like we'll have to keep a closer eye on Brannen this year!

[moonslav59]

Ockimey is probably a little high there. If he's going to be an impact bat, he needs to take a big jump this year.

 

He did have an .820 OPS between A+ and AA ball last year at age 21. His power numbers were low (14 HRs & 43 EBH in 452 ABs), but I don't think he needs to make a big jump this year. He's got 2-3 years to get ML ready. He still is a bit "raw", but to me that can mean his ceiling is high, if he can ever refine himself.

His K rate is way too high, but with a .385 OBP, ipt may not be that big of an issue.

[moonslav59]

With not much else to talk about, here's a conversation starter. Whether you believe in a short window or a cliff or not, we can probably all agree on the idea that we'll have a much better chance at winning in the next 3 years as well as beyond, if we can somehow get some serious contributions from within our current farm system. That could mean some big contributions from 1 or 2 guys or moderate contributions from several players.

 

I'm going to divide the prospects into groups and then examine each group as a whole. (Rankings by soxprospects.com and age listed)

 

The Power Guys: #2Michael Chavis (age 22), #20 Bryce Brentz (age 29) & #NR Jeremy Barfield (age 29): All hit over 28 HRs last year after never really showing that kind of power before. Brentz & Barfield are 29 and could be late bloomer surprises, but the odds are stacked against them ever making a serious impact at the big league level. Chavis offers the most hope but seems to be a man without a position. He may be too undersized to play 1B and not athletic enough to play 3B or LF. Maybe DH will be his only true opportunity. What are the odss just one of these guys makes a significant impact? I'd say maybe closer to 25% than 40%.

 

The Fringe First Basemen: One could count Chavis in this group, but I'll go with #5 Sam Travis (age 24), #6 Josh Ockimey (age 22) & #13 Bobby Dalbec (age 22- plays 3B). Travis is nearing the do or die part of his career. He lacks the true power one expects at 1B, but he could become a solid bench player with a long shot at developing more power as he ages. Ockimey has more raw talent but has also shown limited power. Dalbec plays 3B, but he's listed as 6-4. If Devers remains our FT 3Bman, Bobby could be a long shot choice for 1B after Moreland's deal ends. Significant impact chances? I'd say closer to 10% than 20%.

 

The Middle Infielders: #12 CJ Chatham (age 23), #18 Tzu-Wei Lin (age 23) & #23 Brett Netzer (age 21) make up this unflattering group. While Lin has shown some flashes of plus defense and quality utility value, I'm not too hopeful anyone makes a meaningful contribution to this team. I'd put the odds at closer to 5% than 10%.

 

The Ready Starters: #22 Hector Velazquez (age 29), #11 Brian Johnson (age 27), #23 Mike Shawaryn (age 23), #10 Jalen Beeks (age 24) all show some promise. I actually like Velazquez as the "sleeper prospect" on the farm. Johnson has teased a few times. I'll go optimistic here and say the odds are closer to 25% than 15% one of these guys becomes a decent 4/5 SP'er.

 

The Far Away Starters: #1 Jay Groome (age 19), #3 Bryan Mata (age 18), #4 Tanner Houck (age 21), #9 Alex Scherff (age 19), #14 Darwinzon Hernandez (age 21), #15 Roniel Raudes (age 20) make up the hardest group to project but perhaps the highest ceiling group of all. Mata and Hernandez might surprise, but Groome and Houck seem to get most of the accolades. Scherff is young while Raudes seemed to take a step backwards last year. There's a lot of players in this group- some with rather high ceilings. I'm going to say the chances are closer to 85% than 70% one of these guys becomes at least a 3/4 SP'er.

 

The Long Shots: #16 Jake Thompson (age 23), #19 Travis Lakins & #26 Chandler Shepherd (age 25) are not likely to contribute. I'd say 5% odds are as high as I'd go.

 

The Groups of their Own: #21 Austin Maddox RP (age 26), #7 Cole Brannen OF (age 19),#17 Danny Diaz 3B (age 17), #25 Ben Taylor (age 25) & #27 Aneury Tavarez don't really fit in any of the previous groups. I like Maddox and think he will be in the pen for a few years to come. Not counting Austin, I'll give the rest odds closer to 20% than 10% with Brannen showing the most promise.

 

Put these odds all together, and one could argue we show a lot of promise, but I don't see the odds of producing one or more blue chippers as being even moderately possible. We could end up with a mess of role players not really good enough to lead us to a ring, but filling out the 40 man roster nicely.

 

The 2020 40 man roster:

 

SP: Price, _____, ______, ERod, Wright/Velazquez

Mata, Houck, Beeks, Shawaryn, Johnson, Thompson(?)

RP:Smith, _____, Barnes, Workman, Maddox, Hernandez, Shepherd

C: Vazquez, Leon, Swihart

1B: ______, Travis, Ockimey

2B: Pedey, Hernandez

3B: Devers, Chavis or Dalbec

SS: ______, Lin or Chatham

LF: Beni, Brentz, Brannen or Tavarez

CF: JBJ

RF: Betts

DH: (JDMartinez?)

[mvp 78]

18 Hrs in A ball for Ockimey is "limited power"?

[mvp 78]

Dalbec also showed a bit of power in his first short stint in Lowell in 2016. He played fairly well last year considering he was out for almost two months.

[mvp 78]

https://www.overthemonster.com/2018/1/22/16918788/baseball-america-top-100-prospects-2018-groome-chavis

 

Baseball America top 100:

 

Groome - 83

Chavis - 85

[mvp 78]

The only former Sox player ranked is Kopech at 11.

[mvp 78]

@SPChrisHatfield

 

Jay Groome coming in at number 83 on the @BaseballAmerica Top 100 is the lowest the club's top prospect has ever ranked in that publication's ranking, dating back to 1990.

[moonslav59]

18 Hrs in A ball for Ockimey is "limited power"?

 

My bad.

 

14 HRs and 29 (2B+3B) in 452 ABs last season is not bad.