2018 Prospect Mega Thread

[Fisk]

Dombrowski is a great evaluator of talent and that is why I'm so optimistic about the future of the Red Sox farm system. I'm predicting the emergence of some high end prospects including Groome, Dalbec, Casas, Houck, Feltman, and Flores.

I would add Diaz, Jimenez, Decker, Howlett, and Duran to that list. We might be looking at this farm system a lot different next year.

[moonslav59]

I would add Diaz, Jimenez, Decker, Howlett, and Duran to that list. We might be looking at this farm system a lot different next year.

 

Certainly, our farm is better looking at the lower levels, but all I heard when we traded Espinoza was that you can't count on guys that low in the system. Now, I'm being asked to trust guys that low in the system.

[Fisk]

Certainly, our farm is better looking at the lower levels, but all I heard when we traded Espinoza was that you can't count on guys that low in the system. Now, I'm being asked to trust guys that low in the system.

 

I wouldn’t say trust them but they can give us hope that our farm is on its way back.

[moonslav59]

I wouldn’t say trust them but they can give us hope that our farm is on its way back.

 

Then, can't one rightfully argue that by trading away those types of players (like Espi) takes away from the hopes that our farm was on its way back? We were called pessimists for feeling that way.

 

It just seems like you can't have it both ways.

 

I do have some hope in our longer term prospects. I have stated that I feel the impending cliff (or valley) will be short, in part in my belief that some of these prospects might help in 3-6 years. Our major farm issue, right now, is the neat total lack of any meaningful, ML ready impact prospects. We will need some youth infusion after 2019 and 2020. None of these guys will be ready:

 

Rank Age

2. 18 Casas

3. 20 Groome

7. 19 Mata

8. 18 A Flores

11. 19 Decker

13. 19 Howlett

14. 19 D Diaz

18. 10 Northcut

19. 20 A Scherff

20. 18 G Jimenez

 

I certainly like the above list more than this one...

1. Chavis 23

4. D Hernandez 21 (He might be our best hope.)

5. Dalbec 23 (still in AA)

6. Houck 22 (probably pen bound)

9. Chatham 23 (was in A ball this year)

10. Feltman 21 (Maybe can be very helpful soon)

12. Shawaryn 24 (6 slot starter in probably his ceiling.)

15. Lakins 24 (Could be called up this year.)

16. J Duran 22 (was in A ball this year)

17. Ockimey 23 (was not protected for rule 5)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[mvp 78]

Certainly, our farm is better looking at the lower levels, but all I heard when we traded Espinoza was that you can't count on guys that low in the system. Now, I'm being asked to trust guys that low in the system.

 

Everyone is a lottery ticket until they reach AA.

[mvp 78]

1. Chavis 23

4. D Hernandez 21 (He might be our best hope.)

5. Dalbec 23 (still in AA)

6. Houck 22 (probably pen bound)

9. Chatham 23 (was in A ball this year)

10. Feltman 21 (Maybe can be very helpful soon)

12. Shawaryn 24 (6 slot starter in probably his ceiling.)

15. Lakins 24 (Could be called up this year.)

16. J Duran 22 (was in A ball this year)

17. Ockimey 23 (was not protected for rule 5)

 

I'm confused about your "still in AA" remark for Dalbec. Do you think AA is too far away for him to contribute in 2019? Seems that he'll always strike out a ton, but if he is still mashing in AA in the spring, he'll be called up to AAA and could compete at the MLB level if there is a spot due to injury.

 

Honestly, I'd trade Chavis this offseason even just for a bullpen arm. I don't think he's the type of guy that will come back and bite you. Dalbec seems to be a Chris Davis prototype that could have a lengthy and decent career. Before the bottom fell out for Davis, he had MVP caliber seasons. Dalbec's glove is ready and I'm not sure his hitting eye will get better. The only issue is that Cora seems to not like high k guys. He'll either make an exception or Dalbec could be moved too.

[moonslav59]

I'm confused about your "still in AA" remark for Dalbec. Do you think AA is too far away for him to contribute in 2019? Seems that he'll always strike out a ton, but if he is still mashing in AA in the spring, he'll be called up to AAA and could compete at the MLB level if there is a spot due to injury.

 

Honestly, I'd trade Chavis this offseason even just for a bullpen arm. I don't think he's the type of guy that will come back and bite you. Dalbec seems to be a Chris Davis prototype that could have a lengthy and decent career. Before the bottom fell out for Davis, he had MVP caliber seasons. Dalbec's glove is ready and I'm not sure his hitting eye will get better. The only issue is that Cora seems to not like high k guys. He'll either make an exception or Dalbec could be moved too.

 

I think he could help. The AA remark was meant to convey a point that he hasn't impressed enough to be in AAA by now.

 

I think he'll be in AAA this year and may represent our best chance at some significant infusion in the next year or two.

 

I'd say Hernandez and Dalbec might be our best near term hopes. Feltman is a bit of a long shot, to me.

[moonslav59]

Everyone is a lottery ticket until they reach AA.

 

I get that, so then is saying our farm will help us like saying that has the same chance as 10 lottery tickets?

[mvp 78]

I get that, so then is saying our farm will help us like saying that has the same chance as 10 lottery tickets?

 

Sometimes you make your money back, sometimes you don't. That's why trades like the Pomeranz deal can't be trashed too much.

 

Just remember that they cleared out the farm to get Chris freakin Sale and one of the top 3 closers over the past few years. THEY ALSO WON 108 GAMES AND A WORLD SERIES.

[mvp 78]

I think he could help. The AA remark was meant to convey a point that he hasn't impressed enough to be in AAA by now.

 

I think he'll be in AAA this year and may represent our best chance at some significant infusion in the next year or two.

 

I'd say Hernandez and Dalbec might be our best near term hopes. Feltman is a bit of a long shot, to me.

 

He hasn't really had enough time to be in AAA by now since he was held back in 2017 due to an injury. To end your second full season in AA isn't a big slight against a player.

[moonslav59]

Sometimes you make your money back, sometimes you don't. That's why trades like the Pomeranz deal can't be trashed too much.

 

Just remember that they cleared out the farm to get Chris freakin Sale and one of the top 3 closers over the past few years. THEY ALSO WON 108 GAMES AND A WORLD SERIES.

 

I get it, and I'm happy the trades got what they were intended to get- a ring (or 2).

 

My point is that some posters are asking me to trust that these far away prospects are going to help the big club someday, but when we traded them for big named players (BTW some were established highly ranked prospects, which we don't have now), we were told they were just lottery tickets and not likely to contribute.

 

I'm just trying to pint out a subtle contradiction.

[moonslav59]

He hasn't really had enough time to be in AAA by now since he was held back in 2017 due to an injury. To end your second full season in AA isn't a big slight against a player.

 

You are right. My original AA statement did sound like a slight. It shouldn't be, but that injury year did set his ML arrival time back to some extent. That was all I meant. He's not really ML ready, now.

[cp176]

I'm confused about your "still in AA" remark for Dalbec. Do you think AA is too far away for him to contribute in 2019? Seems that he'll always strike out a ton, but if he is still mashing in AA in the spring, he'll be called up to AAA and could compete at the MLB level if there is a spot due to injury.

 

Honestly, I'd trade Chavis this offseason even just for a bullpen arm. I don't think he's the type of guy that will come back and bite you. Dalbec seems to be a Chris Davis prototype that could have a lengthy and decent career. Before the bottom fell out for Davis, he had MVP caliber seasons. Dalbec's glove is ready and I'm not sure his hitting eye will get better. The only issue is that Cora seems to not like high k guys. He'll either make an exception or Dalbec could be moved too.

 

I would trade Chavis as soon as it took to make any kind of positive upgrade. I get the fact that Dalbec strikes out a lot but he has shown the ability to adjust at every level he has played at. His intro into AA ball was a good one.

[cp176]

I would add Diaz, Jimenez, Decker, Howlett, and Duran to that list. We might be looking at this farm system a lot different next year.

 

I'm with you here. i think that this could be a very interesting year to follow our minor league programs. some good young talent with size and power potential as well. With respect to the ss position, Flores should get lots of attention but I would also add Chatham to that list.

[mvp 78]

I get it, and I'm happy the trades got what they were intended to get- a ring (or 2).

 

My point is that some posters are asking me to trust that these far away prospects are going to help the big club someday, but when we traded them for big named players (BTW some were established highly ranked prospects, which we don't have now), we were told they were just lottery tickets and not likely to contribute.

 

I'm just trying to pint out a subtle contradiction.

 

I trust that if Dombrowski is in the position he'll be able to fill the needs of the big club either through FA, trades or promotion. He's done really well so far.

[mvp 78]

I would trade Chavis as soon as it took to make any kind of positive upgrade. I get the fact that Dalbec strikes out a lot but he has shown the ability to adjust at every level he has played at. His intro into AA ball was a good one.

 

If you can hit for power in AA, you can hit for power at other levels. If Dalbec was in San Diego's farm, he'd be competing for a starting job for Opening Day.

[moonslav59]

Young talent acquired by year:

 

2010:

Workman, Raunado, Brentz (all comp picks)

Bogaerts IFA

Iggy & Montas IFA (traded for Peavy who got us Hembree)

 

2011:

JBJ, Barnes, Swihart (all comp picks- now high ones like these are gone)

Betts

J Aro IFA

 

2012:

Margot IFA (helped get us Kimbrel)

Johnson, Maddox, Buttrey

Light (comp pick- traded for Abad)

Lin IFA

 

2013:

Devers IFA

TBall, Stanki

G Bautista IFA

Both Basabes (traded)

J Guerra (helped to get Kimbrel)

D Hernandez IFA

 

2014

Moncada IFA (traded for Sale)

Kopech (comp pick traded for Sale)

A Espinoza IFA (traded for Pom)

Chavis, S Travis, Shepherd

R Castillo IFA

 

2015

Beni (7th pick- no more of these for a while)

Lakins, Poyner

 

2016:

Groome, Chatham, Dalbec

Velazquez IFA

B Mata IFA

 

2017

Houck, Brannen, Scherff

A Flores, D Diaz IFA

 

2018

Casas, Decker, Feltman, Durran

 

Now, maybe I'm undervaluing guys like Mata, Casas, Flores, Diaz, Feltman, Groome and Dalbec, but the prospects we acquired from 2016 to 2018 do not seem close to those from the previous era under different rules and circumstances.

 

2013-2015:

Beni, Devers, Moncada, Kopech, Espinoza, Chavis and others highly rated enough to trade for useful pieces.

 

2010-2012:

Betts, Bogey, JBJ, Barnes, Iggy, Margot, Johnson and others.

 

To me, these 3 year groups from before these last years looks way better. granted, this group has not had a chance to prove themselves, but none are as highly rated as many of the other groups had, even when they were very young and far from the majors.

 

 

[jacksonianmarch]

That's the rub of being good, the talent brought in isn't as good. That being said, I think DD picked the wrong players and has a development team that isn't pulling their weight

[Carpin]

Too early to judge 2017 & 2018 picks, I know the previous years have not been good, but let's see how the rest of them perform this year before ruling them out

[cp176]

Too early to judge 2017 & 2018 picks, I know the previous years have not been good, but let's see how the rest of them perform this year before ruling them out

 

Are you trying to start something here by being a little positive about the kids we have in the minors? We might have the weakest farm system in the history of the game. It has been said! lol

[Carpin]

Are you trying to start something here by being a little positive about the kids we have in the minors? We might have the weakest farm system in the history of the game. It has been said! lol

 

Not really, odds are they won't be very good based on previous years experience, but I'm a big believer in the new generations and don't like to discard them until they have their fair chance.

 

By the way, your farm is one of the worst I can remember, but it's worth it, you have a WS ring to show for it and that's what matters.

[cp176]

Not really, odds are they won't be very good based on previous years experience, but I'm a big believer in the new generations and don't like to discard them until they have their fair chance.

 

By the way, your farm is one of the worst I can remember, but it's worth it, you have a WS ring to show for it and that's what matters.

 

Actually i was just be sarcastic.

[jacksonianmarch]

Are you trying to start something here by being a little positive about the kids we have in the minors? We might have the weakest farm system in the history of the game. It has been said! lol

 

Not the history of the game, but pretty weak. Think about it, you dealt away everyone, you didn't draft well, you didn't develop well, and the two guys who ended up rising in rankings got hurt or busted for PEDs. Now you get to draft at 40 and have restricted funds for IFA while developing the crap that is there now. The farm resembles the Yankees farm pre-Cano. Pretty dead

[cp176]

Not the history of the game, but pretty weak. Think about it, you dealt away everyone, you didn't draft well, you didn't develop well, and the two guys who ended up rising in rankings got hurt or busted for PEDs. Now you get to draft at 40 and have restricted funds for IFA while developing the crap that is there now. The farm resembles the Yankees farm pre-Cano. Pretty dead

 

hey now stop that - I'm not about to follow down your path of breadcrumbs that always has me saying something I might regret. I have expressed my feelings pretty well I think when it comes to our minor leaguers. It makes 0 difference to me what anyone says or thinks I still feel that we have some potentially very good young talent and I'm anxious to watch them play.

[jacksonianmarch]

hey now stop that - I'm not about to follow down your path of breadcrumbs that always has me saying something I might regret. I have expressed my feelings pretty well I think when it comes to our minor leaguers. It makes 0 difference to me what anyone says or thinks I still feel that we have some potentially very good young talent and I'm anxious to watch them play.

 

Every farm has guys who have talent. The question is, do you have a development group capable of nurturing that. I think you did with BC and TE. You don't with DD.

[Fisk]

Every farm has guys who have talent. The question is, do you have a development group capable of nurturing that. I think you did with BC and TE. You don't with DD.

 

That statement is just so wrong. Lots of the same guys running the system. Traded Jalen Beeks a 12th round pick for Eovaldi through great development. Traded Espinal for Pearce through good development. There issue was the graduations, trades and international penalties for 2 years.

[OH FOY]

https://www.masslive.com/redsox/index.ssf/2018/11/boston_red_sox_roster_decision_1.html Edited December 8, 2018 by OH FOY!

[OH FOY]

I already got my binky this year in the Minors, besides Reyes, Alexander Montero. Saw him Pitch for Lowell, and he has some nasty stuff. The game I saw he was Outstanding. He got hurt in game, and took him out. Hasn't pitched since, but they promoted him to Salem. That was weird.

 

But, anyway if this promotion is true, he has gone from 1 season in DSL, by passed GCL, and went to Lowell, then Salem, that's a hell of a jump. Here's his history. He by passed 2 Leagues, entirely. Espinoza didn't do this.

http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?sid=t414&player_id=677926#/career/R/pitching/2018/ALL

 

I'm keeping an eye on this kid.

[jacksonianmarch]

That statement is just so wrong. Lots of the same guys running the system. Traded Jalen Beeks a 12th round pick for Eovaldi through great development. Traded Espinal for Pearce through good development. There issue was the graduations, trades and international penalties for 2 years.

 

Or it could be the lack of draft success.

 

In 2015, the sox had the 7th pick in the draft. They turned it into Beni, which was great. But the only other picks that were reasonable were Lakins in the 6th round and Allen in the 8th. Allen is now in SD. The rest of that draft (granted, they lost their 2nd rounder due to the signing of Sandoval) was a wash. For a team picking that high, that's really bad.

 

Their 2016 draft was led by Jay Groome, who has been all hype and absolutely no production or health. Chatham has kept some prospect stock, but relied on a ridiculous BABIP to have a good season in 2018 at a level where he was older than the competition. Anderson looks like he was a good 3rd rounder, but he's now in SF. Dalbec was the 4th rounder, and he's definitely an intriguing prospect, but scouting sites don't believe in him because of his ridiculously high K rates. Shawaryn was the 5th rounder and he's been steady albeit with unspectacular stuff. The 2016 draft doesn't have the big headliner right now with Groome being on the shelf, but it at least is the deepest draft for DD.

 

The 2017 draft to this point looks like a complete bust. Houck was miserable until the second half of the season. He might end up being the saving grace of the draft as he has the biggest tools. Brannen couldn't hit in 2018. Netzer cannot hit. Thompson got shelled. Scherff lost velocity and had a pretty bad 2018. Schellenger barely took the mound. Esplin couldn't hit. The rest is a rag tag group of guys with little to no production leaving the entire draft sitting on the shoulders of Houck. DD's 2017 was epically bad.

 

Clearly, DD's 2018 is too early to judge, but it didn't help that their top dog in that draft missed his debut season with a hand injury.

 

When you're drafting as late as DD has from 2016-2018 and soon to be again in 2019, you cannot miss on an entire draft. The lost 2017 draft is really hurting the farm

[Fisk]

Or it could be the lack of draft success.

 

In 2015, the sox had the 7th pick in the draft. They turned it into Beni, which was great. But the only other picks that were reasonable were Lakins in the 6th round and Allen in the 8th. Allen is now in SD. The rest of that draft (granted, they lost their 2nd rounder due to the signing of Sandoval) was a wash. For a team picking that high, that's really bad.

 

Their 2016 draft was led by Jay Groome, who has been all hype and absolutely no production or health. Chatham has kept some prospect stock, but relied on a ridiculous BABIP to have a good season in 2018 at a level where he was older than the competition. Anderson looks like he was a good 3rd rounder, but he's now in SF. Dalbec was the 4th rounder, and he's definitely an intriguing prospect, but scouting sites don't believe in him because of his ridiculously high K rates. Shawaryn was the 5th rounder and he's been steady albeit with unspectacular stuff. The 2016 draft doesn't have the big headliner right now with Groome being on the shelf, but it at least is the deepest draft for DD.

 

The 2017 draft to this point looks like a complete bust. Houck was miserable until the second half of the season. He might end up being the saving grace of the draft as he has the biggest tools. Brannen couldn't hit in 2018. Netzer cannot hit. Thompson got shelled. Scherff lost velocity and had a pretty bad 2018. Schellenger barely took the mound. Esplin couldn't hit. The rest is a rag tag group of guys with little to no production leaving the entire draft sitting on the shoulders of Houck. DD's 2017 was epically bad.

 

Clearly, DD's 2018 is too early to judge, but it didn't help that their top dog in that draft missed his debut season with a hand injury.

 

When you're drafting as late as DD has from 2016-2018 and soon to be again in 2019, you cannot miss on an entire draft. The lost 2017 draft is really hurting the farm

 

Actually 2017 was looking better in the second half Houck had a much better second half and has a floor of an mlb reliever, scherff definitely had an uptick in the second half and schellenger was healthy the second half and could be a end of game reliever. 18 looks to be a potentially good draft and internationally with Flores, Diaz and Jimenez they have some high upside prospects even though they are far away.

 

The teams ranking should look much better a year from now but unlike you I’m not dreaming of jumping over 10 spots.