2018 Prospect Mega Thread

[jacksonianmarch]

Actually 2017 was looking better in the second half Houck had a much better second half and has a floor of an mlb reliever, scherff definitely had an uptick in the second half and schellenger was healthy the second half and could be a end of game reliever. 18 looks to be a potentially good draft and internationally with Flores, Diaz and Jimenez they have some high upside prospects even though they are far away.

 

The teams ranking should look much better a year from now but unlike you I’m not dreaming of jumping over 10 spots.

 

I'm not dreaming. Now, we might deal away a bunch of guys and end up staying where we are, but the talent is there

[Fisk]

The 2018 draft with Cassas, Decker, Ward, Northcutt, Duran, Feltman , Shugart, Machamer, Cottam and Howlett looks like there best class in years. And the 2017 international signees with Flores, Diaz, Jimenez, Bello, and Miata has a ton of promise. Light at the end of the tunnel.

[Fisk]

I'm not dreaming. Now, we might deal away a bunch of guys and end up staying where we are, but the talent is there

 

 

You always seem to be dreaming, we will see rankings next year and judge then. My guess will be Sox around 24-25 and Yankees probably not much better.

 

Right now unless both teams are dealing off the major league roster going to be hard to get a Kluber or Bauer.

[cp176]

Every farm has guys who have talent. The question is, do you have a development group capable of nurturing that. I think you did with BC and TE. You don't with DD.

 

Just curious to know how you know or obviously think you know so much about the development group that the Red Sox have? Obviously you get a huge shout out from the hindsighters still dreaming of the days of TE and BC. They will love you for this of course but I'm guessing that they don't know anymore than you do about the actual job doers in the trenches.

[jacksonianmarch]

I’m just looking at DD’s track record. His Tigers team was built by dealing off a farm system and using money. They created a window and couldn’t develop anyone in that time. The house of cards crashed when the farm could do nothing for him and the guys paid for got old. He’s an old school kind of guy. He hasn’t built a farm since his days in Florida. I’m not surprised at all that under his leadership, he’s decimated a farm and hasn’t added anything of value

[Bellhorn04]

I’m just looking at DD’s track record. His Tigers team was built by dealing off a farm system and using money. They created a window and couldn’t develop anyone in that time. The house of cards crashed when the farm could do nothing for him and the guys paid for got old. He’s an old school kind of guy. He hasn’t built a farm since his days in Florida. I’m not surprised at all that under his leadership, he’s decimated a farm and hasn’t added anything of value

 

But if we can say that he 'hasn't added anything of value' - yet, the flip side is that none of the prospects he traded have amount to much - yet.

[cp176]

I’m just looking at DD’s track record. His Tigers team was built by dealing off a farm system and using money. They created a window and couldn’t develop anyone in that time. The house of cards crashed when the farm could do nothing for him and the guys paid for got old. He’s an old school kind of guy. He hasn’t built a farm since his days in Florida. I’m not surprised at all that under his leadership, he’s decimated a farm and hasn’t added anything of value

 

Fact remains that he has built a farm system. Judging him pretty much by what you want to see in hindsight glasses is what his detractors here always resort to when trying to find things to criticize him for. In the process of "decimating" - which is a pathetic word to use here since so far the return on this alleged "decimation" has been a helluva lot more substantial that was traded away - results have been produced that most people would see as being pretty good.

[Fisk]

Fact remains that he has built a farm system. Judging him pretty much by what you want to see in hindsight glasses is what his detractors here always resort to when trying to find things to criticize him for. In the process of "decimating" - which is a pathetic word to use here since so far the return on this alleged "decimation" has been a helluva lot more substantial that was traded away - results have been produced that most people would see as being pretty good.

Man could not have said it any better. He has built teams through farm systems trades and free agents. Look at the early 90’s Expos and the 97 and 03 Marlins, great farm systems. He took one of the worst teams in history the 2003 tigers 3 years later they were in the World Series.

[Fisk]

I’m just looking at DD’s track record. His Tigers team was built by dealing off a farm system and using money. They created a window and couldn’t develop anyone in that time. The house of cards crashed when the farm could do nothing for him and the guys paid for got old. He’s an old school kind of guy. He hasn’t built a farm since his days in Florida. I’m not surprised at all that under his leadership, he’s decimated a farm and hasn’t added anything of value

 

 

Old school guy who just won a World Series. Many ways to build teams. The tigers run went almost 10 years.

[jacksonianmarch]

Here’s what I’m getting at. He’s done one helluva job on the big league level. He used a premade farm and traded them for elite talents and kept the right guys for the team going forward. His only warts are the way he neglects the farm. His drafts aren’t anything special. His IFA splashes usually come up dry and his development teams rarely develop any surprises that turn into good big league players. The last time DD created a farm, moneyball was 10 years away from happening. He has yet to prove that he can use analytics to find diamonds in the rough. But he has shown a complete willingness to deal the unknown off for the known. He’s learned not to trust the projection, but get the now. Why deal 3 prospects for a #2 or a good position player when you can deal 4 prospect and get an ace or an all star. Why spend $15 mil AAV on a second tier player when $25 mil gets an elite player. He’s got probably the strongest willingness to pay for something. He’s the rare guy not looking to make a steal.

 

The only warts are his lack of ability to scout amateurs in the new post analytic era. This has left him with dead farm systems in Detroit and now in Boston. This is the harbinger of the cliff. Once you decimate your farm and show no propensity to replenish or develop, you will run out of talent for trades and money for signings

[Fisk]

Here’s what I’m getting at. He’s done one helluva job on the big league level. He used a premade farm and traded them for elite talents and kept the right guys for the team going forward. His only warts are the way he neglects the farm. His drafts aren’t anything special. His IFA splashes usually come up dry and his development teams rarely develop any surprises that turn into good big league players. The last time DD created a farm, moneyball was 10 years away from happening. He has yet to prove that he can use analytics to find diamonds in the rough. But he has shown a complete willingness to deal the unknown off for the known. He’s learned not to trust the projection, but get the now. Why deal 3 prospects for a #2 or a good position player when you can deal 4 prospect and get an ace or an all star. Why spend $15 mil AAV on a second tier player when $25 mil gets an elite player. He’s got probably the strongest willingness to pay for something. He’s the rare guy not looking to make a steal.

 

The only warts are his lack of ability to scout amateurs in the new post analytic era. This has left him with dead farm systems in Detroit and now in Boston. This is the harbinger of the cliff. Once you decimate your farm and show no propensity to replenish or develop, you will run out of talent for trades and money for signings

You do realize he created the 2003 marlins during the height of money ball. He hasn’t had to create a farm system the last 13 years look where his teams have finished. What I think is you are missing the boat on how many ways he has been successful. Will see how he does the next few years with the Redsox.

[jacksonianmarch]

DD left the Marlins in 2001. Moneyball came out in 2003. DD also built the 2003 Marlins at the behest of Huizenga by dealing off a world series caliber team. I doubt Henry is gonna ask for a fire sale any time soon.

 

Look at the 2003 Marlins

Pudge- not acquired by DD

Derrek Lee- acquired by dealing off Kevin Brown

Luis Castillo- signed by DD as an IFA in 1992

Alex Gonzalez- signed by DD as an IFA in 1994

Mike Lowell- acquired via trade as a minor leaguer with NYY

Juan Pierre- not acquired by DD

Juan Encarnacion-not acquired by DD

Miguel Cabrera- signed by DD as an IFA in 1999

Carl Pavano- not acquired by DD

Brad Penny- acquired via trade with ARI for Matt Mantei

Dontrelle Willis- not acquired by DD

Josh Beckett- drafted by DD

Braden Looper- traded from StL to MIA for Edgar Renteria

 

Now DD's hand prints are there for the 2003 Marlins. But they had the opportunity to draft Beckett 2nd overall because they blew it up the year before. He did nab Cabrera, who is on his way to the HOF. He got Looper, Derrek Lee, and Brad Penny in tear down moves. Pierre, Pudge, Pavano, Willis, and Encarnacion weren't acquired by DD. All of the guys acquired were well before the moneyball movement. The latest being Cabrera in 1999.

[cp176]

You do realize he created the 2003 marlins during the height of money ball. He hasn’t had to create a farm system the last 13 years look where his teams have finished. What I think is you are missing the boat on how many ways he has been successful. Will see how he does the next few years with the Redsox.

 

You know what Fisk, guys like you and I would be better off just admitting that this guy we have as GM just truly sucks. He is clearly just a stubborn old fart who is unwilling to accept new ways that clearly lead to winning. lol lol lol

 

I want to note it publicly that my previous statement has absolutely nothing to do in any way with Ben Cherington or any of those other guys who came before him.

[jacksonianmarch]

Or you can admit he’s a guy you get to go for it now and forgo the future

[cp176]

DD left the Marlins in 2001. Moneyball came out in 2003. DD also built the 2003 Marlins at the behest of Huizenga by dealing off a world series caliber team. I doubt Henry is gonna ask for a fire sale any time soon.

 

Look at the 2003 Marlins

Pudge- not acquired by DD

Derrek Lee- acquired by dealing off Kevin Brown

Luis Castillo- signed by DD as an IFA in 1992

Alex Gonzalez- signed by DD as an IFA in 1994

Mike Lowell- acquired via trade as a minor leaguer with NYY

Juan Pierre- not acquired by DD

Juan Encarnacion-not acquired by DD

Miguel Cabrera- signed by DD as an IFA in 1999

Carl Pavano- not acquired by DD

Brad Penny- acquired via trade with ARI for Matt Mantei

Dontrelle Willis- not acquired by DD

Josh Beckett- drafted by DD

Braden Looper- traded from StL to MIA for Edgar Renteria

 

Now DD's hand prints are there for the 2003 Marlins. But they had the opportunity to draft Beckett 2nd overall because they blew it up the year before. He did nab Cabrera, who is on his way to the HOF. He got Looper, Derrek Lee, and Brad Penny in tear down moves. Pierre, Pudge, Pavano, Willis, and Encarnacion weren't acquired by DD. All of the guys acquired were well before the moneyball movement. The latest being Cabrera in 1999.

 

those GMs who acquired all of those good guys must have been real special. who were they? maybe once we get rid of this old guy we can call one of them up and offer them a job. i hate it when someone like dd can sale through a career and get credit for the hard work of so many other people. it's just not fair don't you think?

[jacksonianmarch]

those GMs who acquired all of those good guys must have been real special. who were they? maybe once we get rid of this old guy we can call one of them up and offer them a job. i hate it when someone like dd can sale through a career and get credit for the hard work of so many other people. it's just not fair don't you think?

 

That's just a snarky way of being unwilling to continue the conversation, especially when you know I am right.

[cp176]

Or you can admit he’s a guy you get to go for it now and forgo the future

 

 

you know you are on safe ground here don't you. there are quite a few who post here who have shared this same sentiment. dd in many eyes obviously is just a hired gun, a mercenary so to speak. when he is done ruining such a good franchise, people will come back to their senses and hire or re-hire a real program builder. it is tiring when people constantly whine about all of the things that dd hasn't done and doesn't do in their eyes. some even take it a step further and consider any support for our current gm criticism of the gms of yesteryear. i liked them all when they were here. i did not bring up constantly things that i thought they weren't doing.

[cp176]

That's just a snarky way of being unwilling to continue the conversation, especially when you know I am right.

 

 

"especially when you know I am right" - hmm - nope not snarky or whatever at all. I would feel better if you just spit out how you really feel. I don't mind being called an ass-hole so to speak. That is a problem that I have in general here. You aren't the only one who thinks that they are always right. I have to admit making mistakes daily thus it tends to make me wonder why I'm a little different. Aren't other people wrong at least from time to time. That being said, I still enjoy your posts and you aren't the only person I happen to think is a horse's ass who posts here.

[Fisk]

You know what Fisk, guys like you and I would be better off just admitting that this guy we have as GM just truly sucks. He is clearly just a stubborn old fart who is unwilling to accept new ways that clearly lead to winning. lol lol lol

 

I want to note it publicly that my previous statement has absolutely nothing to do in any way with Ben Cherington or any of those other guys who came before him.

 

I agree many ways to build a team

[Fisk]

Or you can admit he’s a guy you get to go for it now and forgo the future

 

Hard to say he’s foregoing the future when the marlins and the Sox were 2 of the youngest teams in baseball

[Fisk]

If DD didn’t make the trades for Sale and Kimbrel and sign JD. and Price as free agents there is no World Series title. If we added moncada, Kopech, Margot, Dubon , Basabe to this team there is no World Series title and there window is arguably not any longer unless Moncada and Kopech become Betts and Sale. Great young core and very smart moves created this team. Credit to Theo, Benand DD. For this team but no title without DD.

[Fisk]

The idea of team building is to be able to compete for a World Series title year after year, the tigers competed for 10 years.

[moonslav59]

The idea of team building is to be able to compete for a World Series title year after year, the tigers competed for 10 years.

 

 

Kinda, but then they did hit a cliff.

 

It took DD 4 seasons under 73 wins before the team won over 90. 2 years later, they won just 74, then they won 86 and 81. They went 4 years with 88+ wins after that, and then the hit tough times from 2015 to 2018.

[Bellhorn04]

The idea of team building is to be able to compete for a World Series title year after year, the tigers competed for 10 years.

 

I think the Red Sox record since John Henry bought the team is as good as any team could possibly ask for.

 

17 years

10 playoff appearances (none of them Wild Card games)

4 championships

 

If anyone expects anything better than that, they're dreaming.

[Fisk]

I think the Red Sox record since John Henry bought the team is as good as any team could possibly ask for.

 

17 years

10 playoff appearances (none of them Wild Card games)

4 championships

 

If anyone expects anything better than that, they're dreaming.

 

I agree could never ask for more. I started following in 72 after going through years of heartbreak this has been an amazing run. Could not ask for better ownership or even better general managers.

[cp176]

I think the Red Sox record since John Henry bought the team is as good as any team could possibly ask for.

 

17 years

10 playoff appearances (none of them Wild Card games)

4 championships

 

If anyone expects anything better than that, they're dreaming.

 

Awesomely impressive!

[jacksonianmarch]

Kinda, but then they did hit a cliff.

 

It took DD 4 seasons under 73 wins before the team won over 90. 2 years later, they won just 74, then they won 86 and 81. They went 4 years with 88+ wins after that, and then the hit tough times from 2015 to 2018.

 

It took a massive losing spree to rebuild the Tigers. They reached the WS then fell off again before making the deal for Cabrera which boosted their franchise. You understand that DD's first two seasons in Detroit, they won a total of 10 less games than the sox did in the regular season last year. They won 98 games in two seasons. It's interesting because I remember the 06 WS and thought the Tigers were good from 06-15. But they sucked or were mediocre from 07-10 then finally had a 4 year run of sustained success. In his first 9 years of running the Tigers, they made the playoffs once. We seem to selectively remember the 4 year run where the Tigers were good, but DD was on the hot seat before 2011.

[moonslav59]

It took a massive losing spree to rebuild the Tigers. They reached the WS then fell off again before making the deal for Cabrera which boosted their franchise. You understand that DD's first two seasons in Detroit, they won a total of 10 less games than the sox did in the regular season last year. They won 98 games in two seasons. It's interesting because I remember the 06 WS and thought the Tigers were good from 06-15. But they sucked or were mediocre from 07-10 then finally had a 4 year run of sustained success. In his first 9 years of running the Tigers, they made the playoffs once. We seem to selectively remember the 4 year run where the Tigers were good, but DD was on the hot seat before 2011.

 

I was just responding to the point about DD have 10 straight years of being cmpetitive with the Tigers.

 

He did not.

[Fisk]

Kinda, but then they did hit a cliff.

 

It took DD 4 seasons under 73 wins before the team won over 90. 2 years later, they won just 74, then they won 86 and 81. They went 4 years with 88+ wins after that, and then the hit tough times from 2015 to 2018.

You remember what he won in 2003, a historically bad team to fix that quickly is an accomplishment and to have a 10 year window is also very good.

[Fisk]

I was just responding to the point about DD have 10 straight years of being cmpetitive with the Tigers.

 

He did not.

 

Second place in two of those years. Not to bad.