A Realistic View at 2017 Part III

[a700hitter]

Smith won't be on the playoff roster. His velo is still way down.

Was he a big velocity guy before? I thought his success was due to a herd sinker and deceptive motion.

[Hugh2]

Was he a big velocity guy before? I thought his success was due to a herd sinker and deceptive motion.

 

I don't think he was, I think he sat 92-93 might of touched 95. Will have to look it up, but velo wasn't a big part of his game. He is just really good.

[Hugh2]

His AVG fastball velocity is 92.9

[mvp 78]

I don't think he was, I think he sat 92-93 might of touched 95. Will have to look it up, but velo wasn't a big part of his game. He is just really good.

 

Now he's only throwing 89.

[mvp 78]

http://www.masslive.com/redsox/index.ssf/2017/08/carson_smith_boston_red_sox_rh_4.html

 

He finally got back to 92 last night. We'll see if it stays.

[moonslav59]

I like the general roster but would find it difficult to leave Nunez on the bench. He's a servicable fielder and also one of the teams best hitters if not the best. I struggle with the idea of Hanley playing over Nunez.

 

As far as RP's, your takinng a leap of faith on Smith. Maybe he will work out but we have to see some evidence to put him in. He has the talent if he is right Price is an unknown at this point as well. If he was healthy then okay but that remains a big if. Would he pitch in relief? We don't really need 5 starting pitchers in the Playoffs. I don't think Barnes is a good choice, and now he is on the DL I would leave him off. Hembree might be okay so will there be one of our younger guys on the 40 man who could fill the job.?

 

I struggle with Moreland over HRam or Nunez... even vs a RHP.

 

No way Moreland starts vs a lefty.

[illinoisredsox]

Now he's only throwing 89.

 

http://www.masslive.com/redsox/index.ssf/2017/08/carson_smith_boston_red_sox_rh_4.html

 

He finally got back to 92 last night. We'll see if it stays.

 

I wouldn't read too much into anything with Smith yet. He is basically in the 3rd week of spring training.

[moonslav59]

I wouldn't read too much into anything with Smith yet. He is basically in the 3rd week of spring training.

 

True, and October would be like Mid May.

[Hugh2]

http://www.masslive.com/redsox/index.ssf/2017/08/carson_smith_boston_red_sox_rh_4.html

 

He finally got back to 92 last night. We'll see if it stays.

 

If he hit 92, I wouldn't worried at all unless he looks bad coming into camp next year. It would be really really really awesome to have him 100% this year going into the playoffs but I don't think we can count on that.

[moonslav59]

If he hit 92, I wouldn't worried at all unless he looks bad coming into camp next year. It would be really really really awesome to have him 100% this year going into the playoffs but I don't think we can count on that.

 

It's doubtful, but a 90% C Smith might be our 2nd or 3rd best RP'er. 4th best is certainly an attainable goal.

[Nick]

What a bunch of pessimists......Smith has now pitched in five games, last four he did not give up a run.

 

He's a pitcher, not a flame thrower.

 

Unless there's a set back he will be on the roster.

 

Last outing was with only one day of rest.

 

He will probably need to pitch back to back games, at which point he should be ready to return.

[moonslav59]

What a bunch of pessimists......Smith has now pitched in five games, last four he did not give up a run.

 

He's a pitcher, not a flame thrower.

 

Unless there's a set back he will be on the roster.

 

Last outing was with only one day of rest.

 

He will probably need to pitch back to back games, at which point he should be ready to return.

 

I just said it is doubtful he reaches 100% and that 90% could make him the 2nd best RP'er on the staff. Maybe you weren't talking to me, but I thought I was being optimistic.

[Nick]

no I wasn't responding to you....I would have replied to you...

 

I think he was an elite relievers two years ago. I rather have him pitch than anyone not named Kimbrel.

[Jack Flap]

I'm not ready to pencil Smith onto any postseason rosters yet...let's see how he gets through the month of September first. The guy hasn't pitched in a major league game in a really long time.

[sk7326]

I like the general roster but would find it difficult to leave Nunez on the bench. He's a servicable fielder and also one of the teams best hitters if not the best. I struggle with the idea of Hanley playing over Nunez.

 

As far as RP's, your takinng a leap of faith on Smith. Maybe he will work out but we have to see some evidence to put him in. He has the talent if he is right Price is an unknown at this point as well. If he was healthy then okay but that remains a big if. Would he pitch in relief? We don't really need 5 starting pitchers in the Playoffs. I don't think Barnes is a good choice, and now he is on the DL I would leave him off. Hembree might be okay so will there be one of our younger guys on the 40 man who could fill the job.?

 

Nunez is a bad fielder - but they will find a way to get his bat in the lineup

[Kimmi]

Awesome win!

 

27 Ks in total tonight.

 

I was beginning to wonder about Nunez...

 

Pom with another gem, despite the 100+ pitches in just 5.1 IP.

 

We're hitting way more HRs now. Still way down in the league, but showing signs of reaching respectability with power.

 

Love wins like this- team effort all the way.

 

We are on pace to score 89 fewer runs this year than last year. If we do that, we would have still been the #1 offense in the league last year.

[Kimmi]

I thought JF took Pom out at the right time. Pom had begun to have control issues with many balls missing high or very high. With a freesh BP and a narrow lead, the time to remove a starter is when he shows signs of weakening. Good job, setting up our hitters to continue to apply pressure to the Cleveland pitching staff. Holding Cleveland to 2 runs over two games is a major accomplishment.

 

I'm sure that the fact that Pom was coming off a game where he had to leave early with back spasms factored into his decision as well. The pen did its job, so all is well.

[Maxbialystock]

DD gets a lot of credit for signing Nunez. He continues to be a very dangerous guy who wins games for us. We need to keep him in the lineup when Pedey gets back.

 

Hanley on the other hand looked pathetic tonight. Hard to understand what gives with him. Kluber is good but Hanley was bad, no other way to sugar coat it.

 

Spot on about Pomeranz. I agree HanRam was awful, but at least it was against A real ace and a pretty good bullpen. So I don't mind seeing DH'ing in the finale.

[moonslav59]

no I wasn't responding to you....I would have replied to you...

 

I think he was an elite relievers two years ago. I rather have him pitch than anyone not named Kimbrel.

 

Agreed.

 

I wasn't sure if you thought I was one of the "bunch of pessimists".

[moonslav59]

We are on pace to score 89 fewer runs this year than last year. If we do that, we would have still been the #1 offense in the league last year.

 

Very interesting.

 

It appears we (our offense) don't suck as much as some think. It's just that others got better.

Edited August 25, 2017 by moonslav59

[harmony]

no I wasn't responding to you....I would have replied to you...

 

I think he was an elite relievers two years ago. I rather have him pitch than anyone not named Kimbrel.

Carson Smith was impressive two years ago when the righthander won, then lost, the closer's role on Seattle team that lost 86 games.

[oldtimer]

Several points worth considering about the performances in the game last night.

 

Red Sox Pitching:

 

What happened to Sale? He gave up 7 hits and 3 walks in three innings. Unheard of for him. The Guardians soomewhat depleted lineup appears to have solved him to some degree.

 

1. Is it just a fluke? Was Chris not feeling right?

2. Is Sales heavy workload catching up with him?

3. Were the Guardians able to tell what he was going to throw in advance?

 

For the two days before, out staff shut down the same Guardians almost totally.

 

Red Sox RPing.

 

Our second tier RP gave up 11 hits and 6 runs in 5 innings. Our RP looked ineffective and should have been somewhat rested

help us in the stretch?

 

Are our 2nd tier RPs just not that good?

Is the grind of the schedule just tiring the guys out?

Have we the ML DL RPs to

 

Red Sox Field Players:

 

1. Good news is that Moreland is hitting more like he did earlier in the year and first base seems to be well covered now against RH pitching. Re-raises questions about Moreland's future with Sox.

2. Nunez is hitting well also but it creates a question. He appears to be a bit of a liability in the field until Pedey can make it back. Should Holt come in and play 2nd temporarily? Then who plays LF and now possibly Betts will have to take time off with a contusion, how will our outfield be manned? Throw in our $22.7 million DH who did at least swing the bat last night even though going o0 for 4 and JF has some decisions to be made. We can stand pat in the infield until Pedey gets back but is that optimal?

[Spudboy]

Holt will be back in 2018.

 

And I would not be surprised if Moreland were too.

 

Que five pages of alternate choices including cherry picked numbers.

 

3 2 1...

[a700hitter]

Holt will be back in 2018.

 

And I would not be surprised if Moreland were too.

 

Que five pages of alternate choices including cherry picked numbers.

 

3 2 1...

LOL! And much of it in boldface type.

[moonslav59]

Holt will be back in 2018.

 

And I would not be surprised if Moreland were too.

 

Agreed.

 

These two are obvious favorites of JF and DD.

[Bellhorn04]

Agreed.

 

These two are obvious favorites of JF and DD.

 

I doubt that Moreland will be back. But he is delivering good value for $5.5 million this year.

[a700hitter]

I doubt that Moreland will be back. But he is delivering good value for $5.5 million this year.

I would still rather have Encarnacion.

[Bellhorn04]

I would still rather have Encarnacion.

 

I'd rather have him too, trust me.

[moonslav59]

I doubt that Moreland will be back. But he is delivering good value for $5.5 million this year.

 

I didn't agree he would be back or that I wanted him back. I agreed with "I would not be surprised [if they were both back]."

[harmony]

Smith won't be on the playoff roster. His velo is still way down.

Today an Over the Monster column examined the "Nick Punto trade" five years later:

 

https://www.overthemonster.com/2017/8/25/16200096/red-sox-dodgers-trade-adrian-gonzalez-carl-crawford-josh-beckett-de-la-rosa-Webster

 

I was initially confused when I read that the Red Sox turned Allen Webster and Rubby De La Rosa into Carson Smith and Roenis Elias. Then the connection dawned on me: the Sox traded Webster and De La Rosa for Wade Miley whom they later traded with Jonathan Aro for Smith and Elias.

 

Using the same logic, Seattle turned Carson Smith and Jonathan Aro* into Ariel Miranda when the Mariners traded Miley for Miranda near the trade deadline in 2016.

 

Which got me thinking about what has more trade value: three arbitration years of nearly 28-year-old rehabbing reliever Carson Smith or five years of 28-year-old lefthander Ariel Miranda, a low-end starter who has posted an ERA of 4.78 in 25 starts this season. A healthy Smith would seem to have the edge but the years of team control lean in Miranda's favor.

 

Thoughts?

 

* BTW, the nearly 27-year-old Aro has not appeared at the MLB level this year, posting an ERA of 3.44, a WHIP of 1.09 and a K/BB of 3.91 in 21 appearances at Triple A Tacoma:

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=aro---000jon