A Realistic View at 2017 Part III

[Kimmi]

The water has gone down a few inches overnight. It stopped raining. The forecast calls for some sun by Wed or Thur. I'm very thankful

we came through this without any damage.

 

Our cat came back this morning after two days out in the flood.

 

Thanks to all of you for your thoughts, prayers and well-wishes. You will not be forgotten.

 

Good to hear Moon, especially about your cat.

[Kimmi]

Has anyone heard how SoxHop is doing?

[a700hitter]

Has anyone heard how SoxHop is doing?

No, I hope that he is okay.

[SoxHop]

Has anyone heard how SoxHop is doing?

 

I'm good. Thanks for thinking of me. I'm in Austin. We just had some serious rain for a few days, and got less of it than expected. Moon is the one that was in the middle of the real bad part of it.

[moonslav59]

I'm good. Thanks for thinking of me. I'm in Austin. We just had some serious rain for a few days, and got less of it than expected. Moon is the one that was in the middle of the real bad part of it.

 

We got 35 inches here. It's a wonder our house is dry.

 

I hear other nearby places got 49 inches with more on the way. Breaking records for the continental USA. I guess Hawaii got 52 " one time. That should be broken by some place east of us.

 

Water is going down very slowly.

 

They say some flooded areas may not drain out for a month. It's so damn flat here, it's like a lake.

 

[SoxHop]

We got 35 inches here. It's a wonder our house is dry.

 

I hear other nearby places got 49 inches with more on the way. Breaking records for the continental USA. I guess Hawaii got 52 " one time. That should be broken by some place east of us.

 

Water is going down very slowly.

 

They say some flooded areas may not drain out for a month. It's so damn flat here, it's like a lake.

 

 

Dangit Moon....... like the other said..... I'm glad you are alright.....

[oldtimer]

Sorry to break away from the storm situation, but this is the place also too talk about the Sox going forwward this year. As a division leader, I see the Sox as vulnerable for now and maybe going forward and heres why.

 

Starting pitching is our strength with Fister stepping up as he has ( DD accolades). Perhaps the only point is we have a couple of guys who typical go 5 or 6 innings and need to be covered by the BP

 

The BP is strong at the top with Kimbrel, Reed (more DD accolades), Kelly and to a lesser extent Workman and Scott. Abad, Henbree and Boyer are specialty or longer relievers who aren't particularly trustworthy. We can't go with Reed and Kimbrel every day without quickly wearing them out which puts a lot of work into Kelly, Workman and Scott. We need another quality reliever to help and perhaps Smith will be up on Sept 1st (now only two days away).

 

We are going with 12 field players and we have some strength in Nunez (DD again), Beni, Moreland, Devers, Vaz and Rameriz. Davis (DD again) looks like a decent utility outfielder.

Beyond those, we have Betts who is underperforming at the plate, Bogaerts slumping wih an occasional decent night and very little depth with Holt, Young and Leon all weak at the plate. JF continues to play those guys in the righty/lefty scenario because Moreland doesn't hit leftyies well and Leon catches Sale at least.

 

Help is on the way which should make us less vulnerable. Smith might be what we need to shore up the BP. JBJ is expected back on Saturday and Pedey might make it back soon. No expected date as yet identified. With our full team, we are more competitive but with Betts and Bogey off we are no juggernaut. And we should remember that Devers is still a real green rookie.

 

Our main competition in a playoff situation appears to be Cleveland, who has a very scary good lineup and decent pitching. When they get their returning players they will be even better and maybe World Series good. That is lookiing ahead and for now, we need to secure our pennant and that is still a reasonable expectation.

[SoxnCycles]

I'm good. Thanks for thinking of me. I'm in Austin. We just had some serious rain for a few days, and got less of it than expected. Moon is the one that was in the middle of the real bad part of it.

 

I had images of you carrying your gimpy wife on your back, through waist deep water.

Good to hear you and Moon are not as severly affected as some are down there.

[moonslav59]

Total blue skies. Warm. Windy.

 

The water has receded below the sidewalks.

 

Only the streets remain covered in water here on my street. (Other areas have water still rising!)

 

Let's get back to baseball. Oldtimer did a good job describing our situation. I'm still extremely hopeful about our chances at winning a ring and getting Pedey & JBJ back should give us that added boost we seemed to be lacking 2 days ago.

 

Missing Pedey, JBJ, Price, Smith, Thornburg, R Ross may not be as bad as some teams have it, but we've done a great job winning despite all these issues. We are better than we were in the first half. We've added Devers, Nunez, Davis & Workman. We've seen down years from every hitter, except Vaz, but still we are doing as well as last year. There's a lot of good to see, if you look. You don't even have to look hard.

 

Every team has tough times every year. I'm hopeful we don't go through a tough one come playoff time. It looks like we're getting our s*** together and once we get healthy and we can get rested by September call-ups, we should be fine.

 

[Maxbialystock]

Good words from moonslav. I think the panic in the streets--in which I was a participant--was mostly because of the weak hitting because historically (John Henry era) the Sox have had good hitting almost every year. The pitching however has been way above average for us.

 

Indeed, our ERA is second best in the AL--how about that! Our ERA is also wedged between Cleveland's best in the league and the Yankee's 3d best. Now ain't that food for thought? In years past I used to claim that hitting--scoring runs--drove the standings in the AL, but, after the Astros, those three are the next tier. And, because pitching can be so important in the postseason, maybe one of those three will brush the Astros aside.

 

Meanwhile, however, the hitting has been the problem, which is why the 3 of the 4 additions moonslav cited are all here because of their bats. Pitching wins games, but not without some support--see our ace about that.

[mvp 78]

@CSNNE

 

.@RedSox infielder Josh Rutledge has hip surgery and is done for the year -

@EvanDrellich

[moonslav59]

@CSNNE

 

.@RedSox infielder Josh Rutledge has hip surgery and is done for the year -

@EvanDrellich

 

We knew he was done for 2017 already. Is this about 2018?

 

Not that it matters. He'll be off the 40 man by rule 5 day anyways.

[moonslav59]

Remaining games:

 

Boston:

6 TOR (3H/3A)

6 TBR (3H/3A)

4 @ NYY

4 v HOU

3@ CIN

3@ BAL

3 v OAK

 

NYY:

7 BAL (4H/3A)

6 TBR (3H/3A)

6 TOR (3H/3A)

4 v BOS

3@ TEX

3 v MN

1 v KCR

They have 1 day off from SEP 7 to OCT 1.

 

CLE

7 DET (3H/4A)

7 CHE (4H/3A)

4 v KCR

3 v MN

3 v BAL

3@ LAA

3@ SEA

 

 

 

[oldtimer]

Remaining games:

 

Boston:

6 TOR (3H/3A)

6 TBR (3H/3A)

4 @ NYY

4 v HOU

3@ CIN

3@ BAL

3 v OAK

 

NYY:

7 BAL (4H/3A)

6 TBR (3H/3A)

6 TOR (3H/3A)

4 v BOS

3@ TEX

3 v MN

1 v KCR

They have 1 day off from SEP 7 to OCT 1.

 

CLE

7 DET (3H/4A)

7 CHE (4H/3A)

4 v KCR

3 v MN

3 v BAL

3@ LAA

3@ SEA

 

 

 

 

Don't want to put a hex on us but was just reading an article written about how to construct a playoff team and thought i would share it. http://www.foxsports.com/mlb/just-a-bit-outside/story/building-the-perfect-playoff-roster-090115

 

Should we be so fortunate I would think its clear that barring injury we would take at least the following guys onto the 25 man roster into the playoffs

 

Beni

JBJ

Betts

Devers

Bogaerts

Pedey

Moreland

Rameriz

Leon

Vaz

Nunez

 

Sale

Pomeranz

Porcello

Kimbrel

Reed

Kelly

Scott

Workman

Fister

E-Rod (possible)

Smith (looking very possible)

 

Who the other 3 are remains to be seen.

 

Davis (If we go for speed and a decent defensive outfielder)

Brentz (will he even be added to the 40 man today)

Lin/Marrero (we have Nunez, would we go for another defensive infielder?)

Hembree (If rested is he dependable)

Young (another experienced outfielder that needs to show something at the plate)

Holt (can't see the need for versatility and not much else)

Price ( will he be recovered enough and should we use him this late)

[S5Dewey]

Don't want to put a hex on us but was just reading an article written about how to construct a playoff team and thought i would share it. http://www.foxsports.com/mlb/just-a-bit-outside/story/building-the-perfect-playoff-roster-090115

 

Should we be so fortunate I would think its clear that barring injury we would take at least the following guys onto the 25 man roster into the playoffs

 

Beni

JBJ

Betts

Devers

Bogaerts

Pedey

Moreland

Rameriz

Leon

Vaz

Nunez

 

Sale

Pomeranz

Porcello

Kimbrel

Reed

Kelly

Scott

Workman

Fister

E-Rod (possible)

Smith (looking very possible)

 

Who the other 3 are remains to be seen.

 

Davis (If we go for speed and a decent defensive outfielder)

Brentz (will he even be added to the 40 man today)

Lin/Marrero (we have Nunez, would we go for another defensive infielder?)

Hembree (If rested is he dependable)

Young (another experienced outfielder that needs to show something at the plate)

Holt (can't see the need for versatility and not much else)

Price ( will he be recovered enough and should we use him this late)

 

I think I can pare your list down a bit.

 

Davis is a no-brainer, primarily for his speed as a pinch runner but also because he's better than serviceable as our 4th OF'er.

I don't want to see David Price on that roster based not only on his injury status but also because of his "small sample size" in the playoffs.

 

Holt will probably make it because if his flexibility, but I see him as only playing in an emergency situation since we already have an extra IF'er and an extra OF'er.

That leaves one spot to fill. That one will be filled by whatever someone does in September.

Edited August 31, 2017 by S5Dewey

[harmony]

From Beyond the Box Score:

 

https://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2017/8/30/16218054/red-sox-power-slugging-playoffs-contact

[Nick]

I hope we don't sign a full time DH in the future. No doubt Ortiz was the best. And he was relatively cheap in my opinion. Going forward, it's more advantageous to have a depth piece such as Nunez that can play multiple position. Give player a break and let him DH from time to time. Pedroia will require additional time off from playing 2B and he's someone that can DH for a series, as an example. He may not like it but he needs it.

 

How much more would it cost to go from 25 to 26 rosters?

[illinoisredsox]

Total blue skies. Warm. Windy.

 

The water has receded below the sidewalks.

 

Only the streets remain covered in water here on my street. (Other areas have water still rising!)

 

Let's get back to baseball. Oldtimer did a good job describing our situation. I'm still extremely hopeful about our chances at winning a ring and getting Pedey & JBJ back should give us that added boost we seemed to be lacking 2 days ago.

 

Missing Pedey, JBJ, Price, Smith, Thornburg, R Ross may not be as bad as some teams have it, but we've done a great job winning despite all these issues. We are better than we were in the first half. We've added Devers, Nunez, Davis & Workman. We've seen down years from every hitter, except Vaz, but still we are doing as well as last year. There's a lot of good to see, if you look. You don't even have to look hard.

 

Every team has tough times every year. I'm hopeful we don't go through a tough one come playoff time. It looks like we're getting our s*** together and once we get healthy and we can get rested by September call-ups, we should be fine.

 

 

Good to hear. I'm not familiar with Sugar Land, but I was texting with one of my old ND roommates who also lives there He said the Brazos hasn't crested yet and they are waiting to see if their levee holds. He's holed up in San Antonio for now.

[illinoisredsox]

Remaining games:

 

Boston:

6 TOR (3H/3A)

6 TBR (3H/3A)

4 @ NYY

4 v HOU

3@ CIN

3@ BAL

3 v OAK

 

NYY:

7 BAL (4H/3A)

6 TBR (3H/3A)

6 TOR (3H/3A)

4 v BOS

3@ TEX

3 v MN

1 v KCR

They have 1 day off from SEP 7 to OCT 1.

 

CLE

7 DET (3H/4A)

7 CHE (4H/3A)

4 v KCR

3 v MN

3 v BAL

3@ LAA

3@ SEA

 

 

 

 

I like the Bal-NY set up, one of them HAS to lose 4 games.

[moonslav59]

Don't want to put a hex on us but was just reading an article written about how to construct a playoff team and thought i would share it. http://www.foxsports.com/mlb/just-a-bit-outside/story/building-the-perfect-playoff-roster-090115

 

Should we be so fortunate I would think its clear that barring injury we would take at least the following guys onto the 25 man roster into the playoffs

 

Beni

JBJ

Betts

Devers

Bogaerts

Pedey

Moreland

Rameriz

Leon

Vaz

Nunez

 

Sale

Pomeranz

Porcello

Kimbrel

Reed

Kelly

Scott

Workman

Fister

E-Rod (possible)

Smith (looking very possible)

 

Who the other 3 are remains to be seen.

 

Davis (If we go for speed and a decent defensive outfielder)

Brentz (will he even be added to the 40 man today)

Lin/Marrero (we have Nunez, would we go for another defensive infielder?)

Hembree (If rested is he dependable)

Young (another experienced outfielder that needs to show something at the plate)

Holt (can't see the need for versatility and not much else)

Price ( will he be recovered enough and should we use him this late)

 

As well as Fister has pitched, he's not a lock for the first series roster. There's no way he ever starts in the first series, and using him in relief is too risky to try in a playoff setting. We won't even need the 4th starter (ERod or Fister) except maybe in long relief of a starter who stumbles out of the gate.

 

My guess is a healthy Barnes would replace ERod or Fister.

 

You forgot to even mention Abad as a possibility. To me, he's a "given" right now.

 

I'm not sure Smith makes it, but we'll see how he does after he's called up. He's looking good in AAA. We could possibly start the first series with only 10 pitchers. We'll have had a day or two off before game one, play 2, day off, play 2, day off, play 1. Every RP'er should be available every game, unless used for 2+ IP.

 

I think we go with 10-11 pitchers:

Sale

Pom

Porcelo

ERod over Fister (my guess right now)

Kimbrel

Reed

Kelly

Workman

Scott

Abad

Barnes or Smith possible (Fister maybe in series 2) or just 10 pitchers series 1

 

C: Vaz & Leon

1B/DH: HRam & Moreland (Nunez)

2B: Pedey & Nunez

3B: Devers

SS: Bogey

LF: Beni

CF: JBJ

RF: Betts

Bench: Davis Holt, Young

Possible: Brentz, Lin, Marrero, Butler (to allow PH'ing for catchers)

 

With Holt and Nunez as back-up IF'ers and no IF'er in need of a PH'er late in the game, I don't see much hope in Lin or Marrero making it, unless Pedey has to DH some.

 

The most likely players to need a PH'er or PR'er late in a game are:

Leon

Vaz

Moreland (vs LHP)

maybe Beni (vs LHP), but this hasn't happened that I know of so far this year.

 

To me, if we go with just 10 pitchers series 1, a third catcher should be in strong contention for that 25th slot. Even if we go with 11 pitchers, I could see us going with Davis over Young, and since we have Holt as the 5th OF'er, we could go with Butler over Young.

[moonslav59]

I hope we don't sign a full time DH in the future. No doubt Ortiz was the best. And he was relatively cheap in my opinion. Going forward, it's more advantageous to have a depth piece such as Nunez that can play multiple position. Give player a break and let him DH from time to time. Pedroia will require additional time off from playing 2B and he's someone that can DH for a series, as an example. He may not like it but he needs it.

 

How much more would it cost to go from 25 to 26 rosters?

 

I've always thought a 26 man roster is needed.

 

I don't want a DH only signing either. A 1B/DH type is what we might get, but I'd like to see us try to bring Nunez back and then trade for a big bat 1Bman.

[moonslav59]

Good to hear. I'm not familiar with Sugar Land, but I was texting with one of my old ND roommates who also lives there He said the Brazos hasn't crested yet and they are waiting to see if their levee holds. He's holed up in San Antonio for now.

 

Luckily, I live far enough away from the Brazos. We live near the Katy-Richmond-Sugar Land border.

 

Sugar Land, home of Roger Clemens and Tom De Lay, is Southwest of Houston (20-25 min drive to downtown).

[oldtimer]

As well as Fister has pitched, he's not a lock for the first series roster. There's no way he ever starts in the first series, and using him in relief is too risky to try in a playoff setting. We won't even need the 4th starter (ERod or Fister) except maybe in long relief of a starter who stumbles out of the gate.

 

My guess is a healthy Barnes would replace ERod or Fister.

 

You forgot to even mention Abad as a possibility. To me, he's a "given" right now.

 

I'm not sure Smith makes it, but we'll see how he does after he's called up. He's looking good in AAA. We could possibly start the first series with only 10 pitchers. We'll have had a day or two off before game one, play 2, day off, play 2, day off, play 1. Every RP'er should be available every game, unless used for 2+ IP.

 

I think we go with 10-11 pitchers:

Sale

Pom

Porcelo

ERod over Fister (my guess right now)

Kimbrel

Reed

Kelly

Workman

Scott

Abad

Barnes or Smith possible (Fister maybe in series 2) or just 10 pitchers series 1

 

C: Vaz & Leon

1B/DH: HRam & Moreland (Nunez)

2B: Pedey & Nunez

3B: Devers

SS: Bogey

LF: Beni

CF: JBJ

RF: Betts

Bench: Davis Holt, Young

Possible: Brentz, Lin, Marrero, Butler (to allow PH'ing for catchers)

 

With Holt and Nunez as back-up IF'ers and no IF'er in need of a PH'er late in the game, I don't see much hope in Lin or Marrero making it, unless Pedey has to DH some.

 

The most likely players to need a PH'er or PR'er late in a game are:

Leon

Vaz

Moreland (vs LHP)

maybe Beni (vs LHP), but this hasn't happened that I know of so far this year.

 

To me, if we go with just 10 pitchers series 1, a third catcher should be in strong contention for that 25th slot. Even if we go with 11 pitchers, I could see us going with Davis over Young, and since we have Holt as the 5th OF'er, we could go with Butler over Young.

 

My understanding is that if we sustain an injury in the Playoffs then that injured player can be temporarily taken off the team and can't come back until the series end, and we can replace him from the 40 man roster. I haven't found that in writing, but I think I read it last year.

[illinoisredsox]

My understanding is that if we sustain an injury in the Playoffs then that injured player can be temporarily taken off the team and can't come back until the series end, and we can replace him from the 40 man roster. I haven't found that in writing, but I think I read it last year.

 

Almost true. If a player is injured during a series, he can be replaced on the roster. However, he is not only out for that series but the next one as well.

 

In effect, if you are replaced in the LCS or World Series, you are done for the year.

[SoxnCycles]

"As well as Fister has pitched, he's not a lock for the first series roster."

 

He should be, if the first team is Cleveland.

[moonslav59]

"As well as Fister has pitched, he's not a lock for the first series roster."

 

He should be, if the first team is Cleveland.

 

So, you want to bench Porcello or Sale in the first series?

 

ERA vs CLE

 

0.00 Pom 5.1 IP

0.00 Porcello (0 IP-LOL)

3.43 Fister 21 IP

4.76 ERod 5.2 IP

14.63 Sale 8.0 IP

Edited August 31, 2017 by moonslav59

[Bellhorn04]

You could put Fister in the pen, available in that 'piggyback starter' role we've had some discussion about.

[SoxnCycles]

So, you want to bench Porcello or Sale in the first series?

 

ERA vs CLE

 

0.00 Pom 5.1 IP

0.00 Porcello (0 IP-LOL)

3.43 Fister 21 IP

4.76 ERod 5.2 IP

14.63 Sale 8.0 IP

 

E-Rod or Porcello.

[moonslav59]

You could put Fister in the pen, available in that 'piggyback starter' role we've had some discussion about.

 

We may keep all 5 starters on the first series roster, but using Fister or ERod in an unfamiliar role while we have good RP'ers instead is a risk, I'm not suggesting. Keeping the 5th starter for a possible long relief or unforeseen piggy back situation does have merit.

 

Day off

G1 Sale

G2 Pom

Day off

G3 Porcello

G4 ERod or Fister (or Sale -1 day rest, if down 2-1)

Day off

G5 Sale (+1 day rest or Pom, if Sale used in game 4)

 

[Kimmi]

I'm good. Thanks for thinking of me. I'm in Austin. We just had some serious rain for a few days, and got less of it than expected. Moon is the one that was in the middle of the real bad part of it.

 

Good to see you SoxHop and glad you guys are okay.