A Realistic View at 2017 Part III

[Jasonbay44]

The wild card game is "technically" a playoff game. But I think its incredibly dumb a 162 game season is decided by 1 game for some teams. For example - Rockies and D-Backs are great teams, playing in a division with Dodgers and will likely be f***ed into playing each other in a 1 game playoff, which doesn't really seem fair to those teams.

[moonslav59]

The wild card game is "technically" a playoff game. But I think its incredibly dumb a 162 game season is decided by 1 game for some teams. For example - Rockies and D-Backs are great teams, playing in a division with Dodgers and will likely be f***ed into playing each other in a 1 game playoff, which doesn't really seem fair to those teams.

 

I get your point, but is not letting one even get a chance (4 teams not 5 in each league) a better option?

 

If you give them a 3 game series, then the other 8 teams have too long of a break.

 

It's not perfect, but I think they have it right.

[bowman]

Playoffs, your talking about Playoffs..lol

[moonslav59]

Do you agree that these are our best and worst positions by value as we look to 2018?

 

Here's how our positions rank by WAR:

 

Rank Position WAR

 

2 SP 14.5

4 RP 5.3

5 RF 4.2

8 2B 2.3

11 SS 2.4

16 LF 1.7

19 CF 1.9

21 C 0.8

11 out of 15 DH -0.4

26 1B 0.7

27 3B 0.1

 

 

 

Certainly Devers makes 3B look better than 27th best in MLB.

 

I don't see our catching crew as a weakness despite the ranking of 21st out of 30.

 

To me, 1B/DH is clearly our weakness now and looking to 2018.

 

[Nick]

Do you agree that these are our best and worst positions by value as we look to 2018?

 

Here's how our positions rank by WAR:

 

Rank Position WAR

 

2 SP 14.5

4 RP 5.3

5 RF 4.2

8 2B 2.3

11 SS 2.4

16 LF 1.7

19 CF 1.9

21 C 0.8

11 out of 15 DH -0.4

26 1B 0.7

27 3B 0.1

 

 

 

Certainly Devers makes 3B look better than 27th best in MLB.

 

I don't see our catching crew as a weakness despite the ranking of 21st out of 30.

 

To me, 1B/DH is clearly our weakness now and looking to 2018.

 

 

Our pitching has carried us. DD saw an opportunity to acquire Sale and he saw this year's result as a possibility. He also continued to add pieces to our bullpen even thought it has not worked for Thornburg.

 

It's incredulous how well we're doing despite our anemic offensive production at 3B, 1B amd DH spots. Pablo experiment failed. We now have it covered with Devers. DD went for defensive help from 1B. We are getting exactly what we paid for in Moreland.

Hurt or otherwise, Hanley has not produced. A singles hitter that we're paying $19M. But we're stuck with him for two more years.

 

Pitching and defense still rule the game. Not sure why we didn't pursue Gray either. We'll have to address contracts of both Kimbrel and Pom after 2018 season.

[BstHcpr]

Our pitching has carried us. DD saw an opportunity to acquire Sale and he saw this year's result as a possibility. He also continued to add pieces to our bullpen even thought it has not worked for Thornburg.

 

It's incredulous how well we're doing despite our anemic offensive production at 3B, 1B amd DH spots. Pablo experiment failed. We now have it covered with Devers. DD went for defensive help from 1B. We are getting exactly what we paid for in Moreland.

Hurt or otherwise, Hanley has not produced. A singles hitter that we're paying $19M. But we're stuck with him for two more years.

 

Pitching and defense still rule the game. Not sure why we didn't pursue Gray either. We'll have to address contracts of both Kimbrel and Pom after 2018 season.

 

I don't the the Red Sox had the farm system depth to pull off a Gray trade. They really didn't have that big of a need for a starter either.

[Youk Of The Nation]

The wild card game is "technically" a playoff game. But I think its incredibly dumb a 162 game season is decided by 1 game for some teams. For example - Rockies and D-Backs are great teams, playing in a division with Dodgers and will likely be f***ed into playing each other in a 1 game playoff, which doesn't really seem fair to those teams.

 

Personally, I would love to see the divisions abolished. Go back to having two leagues, each with 15 teams. Keep the LDS and LCS before the WS, but instead of division winners and a WC, the top four teams by record are the playoff teams. It would eliminate the obnoxiousness of things like the 2005 Padres at 81-81 making it into the postseason while a team with 90 wins misses out completely because another team in their division won 96.

[moonslav59]

I don't the the Red Sox had the farm system depth to pull off a Gray trade. They really didn't have that big of a need for a starter either.

 

When a guy like Gray comes along and can be had for 3 low, ex- top 100 prospects- two with major injuries, then you have to try hard to acquire him. It's always easy to trade SP'ing, and often when you do, you regret it (B Arroyo).

 

Even this year, we looked to have 6 solid SP'ers and still ended up starting others 21 times and counting. Three of the 6 have under performed and/or been hurt (Wright, Price & Porcello).

 

Gray is under team control for two more (arb) years. His injury history is worrisome, but the guy is an ace when healthy.

[Slasher9]

Correct, correct, and correct. The one game wildcard game stats are included in postseason stats, not regular season stats like the 163rd game was.

 

no one is arguing where the stats go. but it certainly doesnt "feel" like the postseason. it feels like a playin game.

[mvp 78]

Personally, I would love to see the divisions abolished. Go back to having two leagues, each with 15 teams. Keep the LDS and LCS before the WS, but instead of division winners and a WC, the top four teams by record are the playoff teams. It would eliminate the obnoxiousness of things like the 2005 Padres at 81-81 making it into the postseason while a team with 90 wins misses out completely because another team in their division won 96.

 

Need to also get rid of interleague play by dumping two franchises (Tampa and Cleveland) or adding two (Montreal and Portland).

[mvp 78]

Correct, correct, and correct. The one game wildcard game stats are included in postseason stats, not regular season stats like the 163rd game was.

 

Fake playoffs.

[Bellhorn04]

no one is arguing where the stats go. but it certainly doesnt "feel" like the postseason. it feels like a playin game.

 

Playin, playoff, what's the difference.

[Kimmi]

Was game 163 in 1978 a playoff game?

 

If no, I rest my case.

 

If yes, why is the additional game included in regular season stats.

 

Check mate wildcardists!

 

no one is arguing where the stats go. but it certainly doesnt "feel" like the postseason. it feels like a playin game.

 

Just following along with MVP's logic.

[Jack Flap]

To me, the regular season is 162 games, and anything in addition to that is "playoffs"...however, if you want to argue that the "real playoffs" start with the division series, I won't argue with that, either.

[mvp 78]

Just following along with MVP's logic.

 

Nope. I think MLB is just screwing up what they always held as true. Game 163 isn't the playoffs.

 

The play in game came after the exciting end to the regular season in 2011 with the Sox/Rays and Cards/Braves. They wanted to generate this excitement every year by creating a play in game.

[mvp 78]

To me, the regular season is 162 games, and anything in addition to that is "playoffs"...however, if you want to argue that the "real playoffs" start with the division series, I won't argue with that, either.

 

It's the Schrodinger's game. Each team is both done with the regular season and not in the playoffs yet.

[Bellhorn04]

It's the Schrodinger's game. Each team is both done with the regular season and not in the playoffs yet.

 

How about the first round of the NFL playoffs, the Wild Card round - are those playoff games?

[SoxnCycles]

How about the first round of the NFL playoffs, the Wild Card round - are those playoff games?

 

Lot's of folks think the DH isn't a real position either.

Thinking that doesn't make it true. But, there's no convincing flat-earthers.

[mvp 78]

How about the first round of the NFL playoffs, the Wild Card round - are those playoff games?

 

Yes. See, the way the NFL works is that there is one game in each round. The time constraints are no different than in other rounds.

 

In baseball, it has always been a best of 5 or 7. In baseball, you win a series not a game. If they want to expand the WC match up to 3 games or more, then it can be considered the playoffs.

[Thunder]

How about the first round of the NFL playoffs, the Wild Card round - are those playoff games?

 

Apples and oranges. mvp hit it on the head with the whole time constraints thing.

[Bellhorn04]

Yes. See, the way the NFL works is that there is one game in each round. The time constraints are no different than in other rounds.

 

In baseball, it has always been a best of 5 or 7. In baseball, you win a series not a game. If they want to expand the WC match up to 3 games or more, then it can be considered the playoffs.

 

Used to be, used to be...once upon a time there was only the World Series. What's changed is changed.

[Bellhorn04]

Apples and oranges. mvp hit it on the head with the whole time constraints thing.

 

Calling a game a 'playin' game instead of a 'playoff' game is just semantics. The reality is the same in either case. You win, you move on, you lose, you go home.

[mvp 78]

Used to be, used to be...once upon a time there was only the World Series. What's changed is changed.

 

And at one point they decided to make the AS Game matter by having it affect the WS. Oooops, they changed course after they realized it was dumb, just like they'll do with considering the WC play in game to be the real playoffs. It took them 14 years to fix that mistake. We probably won't have this discussion finalized until 2025 then.

[mvp 78]

Calling a game a 'playin' game instead of a 'playoff' game is just semantics. The reality is the same in either case. You win, you move on, you lose, you go home.

 

Same with the regular season. You win the regular season, you move on to the playoffs.

[Bellhorn04]

Same with the regular season. You win the regular season, you move on to the playoffs.

 

It's all technicalities. In this case the Wild Card games are technically playoff games. MLB recognizes them as such, Baseball-Reference recognizes them as such.

[mvp 78]

It's all technicalities. In this case the Wild Card games are technically playoff games. MLB recognizes them as such, Baseball-Reference recognizes them as such.

 

The WC Game is the brontosaurus of the MLB season. Recognized as a playoff game now, doomed to be a regular season game eventually because of #truth.

[moonslav59]

I'm not sure why it matters what they call it, it's a good idea, IMO. It's better to give two teams a chance than to send an 88-90+ game winner packing early.

 

It often keeps several more teams "in it" much longer.

 

It's good for baseball.

 

We're never going to an 8 team league playoff set-up, and going back to 4 (with 3 divisions) often keeps much better teams out of it.

[moonslav59]

So, what Sox player has been helped or hurt the most by playing at Fenway this year?

 

Home OPS/Away OPS/ Differential

 

.925 Vaz .482 +443

1.112 Nunez .751 +361

1.179 Devers .885 +294

 

.752 Leon .601 +151

.815 Moreland .692 +123

.798 Young .691 +107

.806 Pedey .762 +44

.792 HRam' .751 +41

.751 Bogey .726 +25

 

.754 Betts .837 -81

.753 Beni .864 -111

.661 JBJ .839 -178

 

As great as our OF is, they play better away!

[moonslav59]

August OPS

1.295 Beni

1.002 Devers

.963 Young

.929 Moreland

.873 Nunez

.851 Vaz

.722 HRam

.713 Betts

.675 Bogey

.583 JBJ

.557 Leon

.481 Holt (more PAs than Young & Leon)

[oldtimer]

August OPS

1.295 Beni

1.002 Devers

.963 Young

.929 Moreland

.873 Nunez

.851 Vaz

.722 HRam

.713 Betts

.675 Bogey

.583 JBJ

.557 Leon

.481 Holt (more PAs than Young & Leon)

 

JF favors Holt