The Window

[Hugh2]

So if I want to get a boner over a cliff I will.

[moonslav59]

I'm not sure the judgment of DD will come down to winning a ring or not. A lot of fans now seem to accept the fact that once you make the playoffs the rest is a crapshoot. If DD's Red Sox win the division 3 or 4 times that might be enough for a lot of fans even if we don't go all the way.

 

Fair enough.

 

I'd actually prefer 1 ring and 3 last place finishes to 3-4 "close but no cigars", but I can understand those who prefer staying highly competitive for a 4 year window.

[moonslav59]

So if I want to get a boner over a cliff I will.

 

Mine goes limp at the thought.

[a700hitter]

^ pessimism

 

There's more than enough time to fill the farm and get young assets back in trades.

 

I'm sorry that you guys strain to see rain clouds on a sunny day.

Winning the Division one year and leading the Division the next year can be very concerning to some people.

[jacksonianmarch]

DD took over a last place team with a brimming prospect pool and turned them into a first place team for 1.5 seasons. That's not easy to do. Henry saw the fan base was being lost to the C's and the Pats and if the sox were on a 5 year plan to contend, the revenue would have been awful in those five years. While Henry is shelling out big money, the team is making money hand over fist due to their success and the valuation of the franchise has never been higher. Henry's ROI is through the roof.

[notin]

The Sox had a pretty glaring window deadline in 2004, she Pedro, Lowe, Varitek, Nixon, and several other key players all hit free agency simultaneously, and the farm was fairly depleted. And yet there they were winning it all again in 2007...

[notin]

Henry saw the fan base was being lost to the C's and the Pats

 

 

I seriously doubt this. Strikes me as speculation.

The seasons don't even coincidence. Anyone ever heardvavftiend say "I'm sick of these losing Red Sox. I'm going to wait until October and start cheering for the Celtics instead."...

[cp176]

Everything is out of our control. Whether they win or lose, make the playoffs, who they bring in for the 8th inning, whether or not they sign a pitcher etc etc etc.

 

We are just a very diversified bunch in terms of what we want to complain about and that is basically the foundation of every fan forum.

 

Yup - you are right.

 

Baseball is unlike the other major sports for me. I want a team that is competitive year after year. I want them to be in the hunt to make the playoffs but if they don't get a WS ring, I'm personally fine with that. They make up a big part of my summer's entertainment and just like the change of seasons I do want something to look forward to next year.

1. I am a traditionalist - i hate the current playoff system - too many teams make the playoffs - too much watered down talent -the season is too long.

2. I do not believe in the "window" theory.

3. I do not believe that the Red Sox ownership team feels the budget constraints that some here think they do.

4. When and if John Henry decides to sell this franchise, he will very much more than simply make up any money that he has to expend in luxury tax payments, foolish contracts, etc.

5. I still very much like the trade for Pomeranz

6. I would have my best overall hitter (defined by my terms) bat third

7. Outside of my closer, I probably would not have designated innings for designated pitchers.

8. In general, i don't like seeing many changes to a game that I have loved since 1956. I don't care if it appears sexy and appeals to a younger generation. I'm ok with some things not changing.

9. I think that statistical analysis is good for the game but should never be the tail wagging the dog. The guys on the field actually do know more about the game than many who seem to love the game but in fact have never really played it.

10. I am an older fan and I don't like change in general!!! lol

Oh and by the way - nothing will ever top the 1967 season. Nothing.

[Bellhorn04]

DD took over a last place team with a brimming prospect pool and turned them into a first place team for 1.5 seasons. That's not easy to do. Henry saw the fan base was being lost to the C's and the Pats and if the sox were on a 5 year plan to contend, the revenue would have been awful in those five years. While Henry is shelling out big money, the team is making money hand over fist due to their success and the valuation of the franchise has never been higher. Henry's ROI is through the roof.

 

Exactly right about the market value and the ROI. Henry is one smart SOB.

[jacksonianmarch]

I seriously doubt this. Strikes me as speculation.

The seasons don't even coincidence. Anyone ever heardvavftiend say "I'm sick of these losing Red Sox. I'm going to wait until October and start cheering for the Celtics instead."...

 

The C's overlap on the front end and the Pats overlap on the back end. If the sox suck, fans Who would tune in in May or June after the C's are eliminated don't tune in and those that did, tune out in August as preseason football starts

[Jack Flap]

I think we pretty clearly have a "window" in 2017-19 where we have maximized our chances, after which we will face some uncertainty and the likelihood that our roster will look significantly different, but I don't really buy the subsequent "cliff" argument myself. This will still be an organization with a lot of money available to spend on improving the roster (particularly as contracts like Hanley, Pablo, etc. come off the books), and this year's draft and international class showed they should still be able to keep the pipeline of young talent flowing under the new rules. I think some people are making things a lot gloomier than they are in reality...the future is far from set in stone at this point, and if we're a bad team come 2020-21 it will be because we didn't play our cards right between now and then, not because it was somehow predestined.

 

(And as much of a prospect-hugger as I admit to being at times, having Moncada, Kopech, Espinoza, and the others we've traded wouldn't guarantee us a thing in terms of the future...)

[S5Dewey]

So if I want to get a boner over a cliff I will.

 

Ugh. I went to school with a Cliff. (Not that there's anything wrong with that!)

[cp176]

Ugh. I went to school with a Cliff. (Not that there's anything wrong with that!)

 

Cliff Claven??? lol - I'm in Boston for the day and had to say that.

[Hugh2]

Ugh. I went to school with a Cliff. (Not that there's anything wrong with that!)

 

HA! now that was funny

[S5Dewey]

Cliff Claven??? lol - I'm in Boston for the day and had to say that.

 

Yeah. Cliff was the cooler of the two of us.

[moonslav59]

The Sox had a pretty glaring window deadline in 2004, she Pedro, Lowe, Varitek, Nixon, and several other key players all hit free agency simultaneously, and the farm was fairly depleted. And yet there they were winning it all again in 2007...

 

You're joking.

The sox farm in 2004 was a major force in 2007. We traded top prospects HRam and A Sanchez for Beckett & Lowell. Other top prospects in 2004 were Youkilis, Moss, Lester, Shoppach, Pedroia & Papelbon.

[Kimmi]

I'm comfortable that Dombrowski is devoting a lot of thought to the 3B situation and will act wisely.

 

I am confident that Dombrowski is devoting a lot of thought to the 3B situation. I am not confident that he will act wisely.

 

Despite what he says, I can't see the the Sox going over the luxury tax limit this year. After being so conscientious of not going over it in the offseason, it would seem kind of silly to go over it in July. However, I don't think Dombrowski would have any qualms about trading more prospects, including Devers or Groome, if he thinks he can get a player that will put us over the top.

[Nick]

I am confident that Dombrowski is devoting a lot of thought to the 3B situation. I am not confident that he will act wisely.

 

Despite what he says, I can't see the the Sox going over the luxury tax limit this year. After being so conscientious of not going over it in the offseason, it would seem kind of silly to go over it in July. However, I don't think Dombrowski would have any qualms about trading more prospects, including Devers or Groome, if he thinks he can get a player that will put us over the top.

 

I just hope he doesn't kill a fly with the "mother of all bombs".

[Bellhorn04]

I am confident that Dombrowski is devoting a lot of thought to the 3B situation. I am not confident that he will act wisely.

 

Yes, that's understandable. I think Dombrowski recognizes that a big splashy move for a third baseman won't guarantee us of anything...I think he may be focusing more on a reliever. We shall see.

[moonslav59]

I am confident that Dombrowski is devoting a lot of thought to the 3B situation. I am not confident that he will act wisely.

 

Despite what he says, I can't see the the Sox going over the luxury tax limit this year. After being so conscientious of not going over it in the offseason, it would seem kind of silly to go over it in July. However, I don't think Dombrowski would have any qualms about trading more prospects, including Devers or Groome, if he thinks he can get a player that will put us over the top.

 

I agree, but there is a chance we could go over the limit this year and try to reset next year. We lose Moreland, Young and Abad. Re-setting next year would be beneficial, if we plan on going over in 2019, 2020 and maybe 2021.

 

It will be hard to stay under next year with all the arb raises, but maybe we can trade a big salary or two.

[Nick]

I agree, but there is a chance we could go over the limit this year and try to reset next year. We lose Moreland, Young and Abad. Re-setting next year would be beneficial, if we plan on going over in 2019, 2020 and maybe 2021.

 

It will be hard to stay under next year with all the arb raises, but maybe we can trade a big salary or two.

 

Biggest bang for buck is Porcello but I think we will need him.

[oldtimer]

I agree, but there is a chance we could go over the limit this year and try to reset next year. We lose Moreland, Young and Abad. Re-setting next year would be beneficial, if we plan on going over in 2019, 2020 and maybe 2021.

 

It will be hard to stay under next year with all the arb raises, but maybe we can trade a big salary or two.

 

I wonder if letting Young walk would be a good thing for the club. He still is a good defender and he still hits fairly well. Good untility sub for us unless someone offers more. I don't see anyone in our minor league system that is ready to replace any of our outfield.

[mvp 78]

I wonder if letting Young walk would be a good thing for the club. He still is a good defender and he still hits fairly well. Good untility sub for us unless someone offers more. I don't see anyone in our minor league system that is ready to replace any of our outfield.

 

Brentz is playing well this year, but I'd prefer Young too.

[moonslav59]

If we make a deal getting players that put us over the limit, trading Young may help us get back under.

 

Prado can play LF, so maybe we could afford to trade Young after a deal for Prado.

 

I don't see it happening.

 

My point about trading salary to get under the limit was focused on next year, assuming we end up going over this year, and need to reset in 2018.

[moonslav59]

Biggest bang for buck is Porcello but I think we will need him.

 

Agreed.

 

We had 6 good starters this year and still ended up needing many starts from others.

 

Wright's return woiuld not offset trading Porcello.

[S5Dewey]

Brentz is playing well this year, but I'd prefer Young too.

 

I agree that I'd prefer to have Young back too, but in the end it may come down to whether Young wants to come back to Boston or possibly be a starting OF'er for another team.

[moonslav59]

I don't think we'll bring back Moreland, Young or Abad.

 

We may not even add an OF'er to the 25 man roster once Young bolts, if Holt is healthy and still on the team.

 

We may try to find a cheap corner IF/LF'er type over the winter as insurance. I could see us not making any major moves this winter. Here might be what our roster might look like with no major moves:

 

6 SP'ers: Sale, Price, Porcello, ERod, Pom, Wright

6 RP'ers: Kimbrel, Smith, Thornburg, Kelly, Ross, Hembree

2 C: Leon & Vaz

2 1B: HRam (DH) & Travis

1 2B: Pedey

2 SS: Bogey & Marrero

2 3B: Devers & Rutledge

4 OF: Betts, JBJ, Beni & Holt

(with Young, Moreland, Abad, Boyer, Fister & Pablo gone)

 

The rest of the 40 man roster:

9-11 Keepers:

SP: Johnson

RP: Barnes, Scott, Workman, B Taylor, A Maddox, K Martin???

C (1B/3B/LF): Swihart

IF: Marco Hernandez & T-W Lin

OF: Steve Selsky???

 

(Hector Velazquez, Noe Ramirez, Henry Owens, Roenis Elias, Luis Ysla might be gone to make way for some rule 5 players.)

 

Possible 4-6 Rule 5 additions (Devers listed above):

J Beeks

D Hernandez

J Callahan

Danny Mars (No Selsky?)

J Witte

T Stankiewicz

T Buttrey

C Shepherd

J Cosart

J Diaz

Trey Ball

 

 

 

 

 

[jacksonianmarch]

If Devers doesn't debut positively this year, then DD will not enter 2018 without insurance for a rookie flop at 3b

[Fan_since_Boggs]

If Devers doesn't debut positively this year, then DD will not enter 2018 without insurance for a rookie flop at 3b

 

I don't think this is a big deal. You sometimes roll the dice with a rookie you believe in -- and take on that risk. If it doesn't work out, you make a trade.

 

Moreover, guys like Lin and Holt will likely be around next year. I'm not saying they are future hall of famers, but they can serve as a back up plan until you find something better on the trade market. And, at this juncture, we don't have a good read on Lin's upside or future. Is he a fluke? Did he make real adjustments that are having a real impact?

 

The one thing we know about Lin is that he is a slick fielder. He can play SS at a high level defensively and 3b seems easy for him too.

Edited July 12, 2017 by Fan_since_Boggs

[Fan_since_Boggs]

Brentz is playing well this year, but I'd prefer Young too.

 

Funny, I have a different impression of Young. To me, it looks like he has lost some bat speed. I don't want him back next year. In fact, I'm not sure I want him on the team past this year's trade deadline. I wouldn't object to replacing him with Brentz this year. With that said, I would rather replace him with an established major league player.

 

I also think Brentz is a potential trade candidate -- maybe some floundering team will give him a chance at the major league level. He has definitely earned another shot.

Edited July 12, 2017 by Fan_since_Boggs