The Window

[Bellhorn04]

I don't think you will ever see the Sox go past even 1st Luxury Tax penalty again, as long as Henry owns the team. I think he will get more involved in spending after this season. The current Luxury Tax threshold is $206,000,000.

You should be able to put a WS contender on the field without coming close to that threshold. Right now we are $228,700,637.

The Cubs are next 219,125,039. 2,625.008 over the Cap. Lucky they play in a weak division. Only 2 games up in 1st place.

Funny pattern here, one present Sox GM, and 1 former 1 with highest payrolls.

 

What you're leaving out is that the Red Sox and Cubs are also 2 of the top 5 teams in franchise value and revenues.

 

They're spending high because they can.

[Bellhorn04]

I would say he will again, especially the first tier tax. I think it unlikely he will break the second tier anytime soon and may NEVER as owner of this team approach breaking the third tier.

 

Let's not forget that the current CBA expires after 2021. There may be an entirely different structure with the next one...and new buzz terms for us to use.

[OH FOY]

Only 1 team won a WS with the Highest Payroll since 2011, last year's Sox. Couldn't go back further, bet it's even longer.

Henry is into numbers, bet his advisors and Minority Owners will point this out.

Edited August 13, 2019 by OH FOY!

[OH FOY]

Sox have spent nearly $480,000,000 last 2 years, and I use to say the Yanks buy Championships. Cant say that anymore.

[Bellhorn04]

Only 1 team won a WS with the Highest Payroll since 2011, last year's Sox.

 

That doesn't mean much IMO.

 

There's still a decent correlation between payroll and wins.

[OH FOY]

That doesn't mean much IMO.

 

There's still a decent correlation between payroll and wins.

 

OK what do you think its going to go next 2 years.

[Bellhorn04]

Sox have spent nearly $480,000,000 last 2 years, and I use to say the Yanks buy Championships. Cant say that anymore.

 

George Steinbrenner's Yankees were able to outspend other teams by a massive amount though. The playing field is a little more level now with the revenue sharing and tax penalties.

[Bellhorn04]

OK what do you think its going to go next 2 years.

 

I really have no idea what Henry's immediate plans are. But I'm pretty sure his intent isn't to 'go cheap' all of a sudden. Henry is a smart man and he knows Sox fans won't stand for that when they're paying the highest ticket prices.

[OH FOY]

George Steinbrenner's Yankees were able to outspend other teams by a massive amount though. The playing field is a little more level now with the revenue sharing and tax penalties.

 

Seems to me the Sox didn't care about 1st penalty either, But really concerned about 2nd penalty. That to me tells me Henry might be rethinking it. Otherwise should have gone all in once your past it.

[OH FOY]

Here's a projection for next year, but of course not nearly complete.

https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/payroll/2020/

[Bellhorn04]

Seems to me the Sox didn't care about 1st penalty either, But really concerned about 2nd penalty. That to me tells me Henry might be rethinking it. Otherwise should have gone all in once your past it.

 

I think Henry realized that 2018 was the year to go all in and suffer the penalties (including draft position). 2019-definitely not.

[OH FOY]

I think Henry realized that 2018 was the year to go all in and suffer the penalties (including draft position). 2019-definitely not.

 

Of course not now.

[OH FOY]

This is Teams Players 2020. Easier to see how things go.

https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/boston-red-sox/payroll/2020/

[Bellhorn04]

Of course not now.

 

I mean right from last offseason. If he was all in for 2019 I'm sure he would have told Dave he could sign some damn relief pitchers.

[moonslav59]

I think Henry realized that 2018 was the year to go all in and suffer the penalties (including draft position). 2019-definitely not.

 

He must have thought 2019 had a good chance, or he wouldn't have (allowed) signed Eovaldi & Pearce.

[Bellhorn04]

He must have thought 2019 had a good chance, or he wouldn't have (allowed) signed Eovaldi & Pearce.

 

Agreed. But after those two were signed - nothing!

[notin]

This is Teams Players 2020. Easier to see how things go.

https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/boston-red-sox/payroll/2020/

 

Per that site, the Sox have $57million to spend, but that money includes arbitration for Betts, Benintendi, Barnes, Bradley, Hembree, Workman, and Wright. And possibly others.

 

The arb cases for the B names alone could easily top $40million, which is why I doubt they’re all back next year...

[OH FOY]

I'm just trying to bring some common sense. Last year highest Payroll worked won an unreal 108 games, OK never expected that this year. What I didn't expect was a team basically the same, with a slightly higher Payroll, have the decline it did. I expected at least 95 wins with this team, with such poor teams throughout the AL. And minimal injuries to the Sox.

To me investing high payroll in this team is a gamble, I know all teams are gambles.

But when you go from one extreme to another, if I was a Owner I would be very cautious in my spending.

Weird year, from the way it was constructed. Strong Starters and weak BP. Bad thinking by Upper Management.

[Bellhorn04]

I'm just trying to bring some common sense. Last year highest Payroll worked won an unreal 108 games, OK never expected that this year. What I didn't expect was a team basically the same, with a slightly higher Payroll, have the decline it did. I expected at least 95 wins with this team, with such poor teams throughout the AL. And minimal injuries to the Sox.

To me investing high payroll in this team is a gamble, I know all teams are gambles.

But when you go from one extreme to another, if I was a Owner I would be very cautious in my spending.

Weird year, from the way it was constructed. Strong Starters and weak BP. Bad thinking by Upper Management.

 

Well, I'm sure the words 'tax reset' and 'rebuild' are on JH's mind.

 

The first question is whether DD is really a goner as the curly haired scribe thinks.

[notin]

Agreed. But after those two were signed - nothing!

 

Colten Brewer!!

[Slasher9]

I don't think you will ever see the Sox go past even 1st Luxury Tax penalty again, as long as Henry owns the team. I think he will get more involved in spending after this season. .

 

he will reset for one year and then the horses can be let out of the barn again for a few seasons. he's done this before.

[OH FOY]

Here's the big question Mark for me next year, what are you going to get from Sale and Price? You absolutely need 1 to be a Stopper, this year they were all over the place. A full season from 1 who has to be dominant. Another year older. Usually goes other way as you get older.

Reset and Sale and Price older. Even smarter.

[notin]

Well, I'm sure the words 'tax reset' and 'rebuild' are on JH's mind.

 

The first question is whether DD is really a goner as the curly haired scribe thinks.

 

I believe it was McAdam who first put forth the DD Gone/Reset Plan.

[Slasher9]

He must have thought 2019 had a good chance, or he wouldn't have (allowed) signed Eovaldi & Pearce.

 

he allowed DD to spend up to the final threshold. DD blew that $$ on a backup 1bman and an injury prone starter. mistakes. 1 we all knew at that time and 1 in hindsight. that said, JH was going to let DD spend up to the final penalty to try and get a repeat parade. that didnt work so now we will get the reset after this season instead of a year later. IMO.

Edited August 13, 2019 by Slasher9
clarified reset timelines

[notin]

Here's the big question Mark for me next year, what are you going to get from Sale and Price? You absolutely need 1 to be a Stopper, this year they were all over the place. A full season from 1 who has to be dominant. Another year older. Usually goes other way as you get older.

Reset and Sale and Price older. Even smarter.

 

For Sale, it could easily be one down year. That happens. For Price, it looks like his career is in decline and expect it to continue for the remaining 3 years...

[OH FOY]

Time to hire a GM that's into Development. Man the Dodgers did it right. Young cheaper line-up (at the moment), and #3 ranked Farm.

For 3 years in a row they paid HUGE luxury tax penalties, and they still built a strong Farm.

That's the GM we need.

[moonslav59]

Agreed. But after those two were signed - nothing!

 

Well, that was over $23M spent on a team already outspending everyone else- most by nearly double.

 

I doubt we ever go over the max line again.

 

I think we reset after 2020, but I'd prefer this winter.

 

I doubt we go over the second line, except when we really think we are the faves.

 

We still have a decent core to keep and build around. We have some high contracts, but hopes that they can all contribute, except Pedey's.

 

We have no CC's, Pablitos or HRams.

 

We have a few farm scraps that can fill roles while we rebuild, and maybe 1 or 2 stick around afterwards.

 

DHern

Marco

Chavis

Travis/Dalbec/Ockimey

Chatham/Lin

Duran

Walden/Taylor

[jacksonianmarch]

George Steinbrenner's Yankees were able to outspend other teams by a massive amount though. The playing field is a little more level now with the revenue sharing and tax penalties.

 

The craziest thing about payrolls is that for the 4 titles 96-00, the Yanks were either in the lead or close to the top, but the biggest expenditure year was $6 mil more than 2nd place. It wasn’t until we acquired Arod that we jumped way above and stayed there until 2014. The interesting thing about 09 and last year is that the Yanks outspent the next team by $60 mil or so. Last year the Sox outspent the league by $25 mil (Giants) but outspent the next highest team to make the playoffs (Dodgers) by nearly $50 mil!

[Slasher9]

Here's the big question Mark for me next year, what are you going to get from Sale and Price? You absolutely need 1 to be a Stopper, this year they were all over the place. A full season from 1 who has to be dominant. Another year older. Usually goes other way as you get older.

Reset and Sale and Price older. Even smarter.

 

well the "reset" still allows for a $200MM payroll. we wont have the 1998 Marlins on the field. but yes, our 2 vaunted starting pitchers will be another year older. thats what happens with LT contract signings. you eventually pay the piper. at least the piper afforded a parade after one of the seasons......

[moonslav59]

Time to hire a GM that's into Development. Man the Dodgers did it right. Young cheaper line-up (at the moment), and #3 ranked Farm.

For 3 years in a row they paid HUGE luxury tax penalties, and they still built a strong Farm.

That's the GM we need.

 

Yes, and one that can bring scouts and developers that know how to bring great young arms to the bigs.

 

I'm not pissed at DD at all. He did what he was supposed to do, but it's time to pay the piper.

 

Call it "the window" or "the cliff" or whatever you wish, but it sure snuck up on us faster than most of us expected. (Some denied it would ever happen.)