The Window

[Hugh2]

They should promote him to Pawtucket soon before he sees the Fens

 

who?

[jacksonianmarch]

Devers

[Hugh2]

Devers

 

No, I was asking about the "fens" but I figure now you meant Fenway

[S5Dewey]

You need a bat. The production from 3b is abhorrent. If Prado hits 5HRs and has a mid .700s OPS, he would be a massive upgrade

 

I agree that we need a bat. I also agree that the offensive production at 3b is abhorrent. But that's where my agreement ends. Prado's fielding is nothing special and IMO we'd be trading the defense Marrero (and Lin!) are giving us for that "massive upgrade". In fact, Marrero is currently sporting a .615 OPS and Lin .805. Sure, SSS's and unproven, but I wouldn't be willing to take the downgrade in defense for that uptick in offense.

 

But that's just me, and I like defense.

[Station 13]

Padro has like $35M coming to him, why would the Sox be interest in him?

[Jack Flap]

But that's just me, and I like defense.

 

You don't say?

[Nick]

Padro has like $35M coming to him, why would the Sox be interest in him?

 

I'm against any trade that blocks Devers from playing at Fenway next year.

[Hugh2]

If I had to choose between and all .800+ ops lineup with average to subpar defense and an all .600 OPS lineup with better to superior defense I'd take the .800 OPS lineup every single time. All things considered, the .800 OPS team would be in contention and the .600 team would struggle to win games.

 

To be fair, I do think there are some who undervalue defense, especially at certain positions, but I think there are those of us who overvalue it as well. Nothing wrong with preferring something as a fan, some people like the long ball, some love watching a pitcher execute his game, and some love watching the diving play but the reality is if this team wants to upgrade the lineup it's going to be awfully hard going into the playoffs with two black holes in the lineup.

[moonslav59]

Yes but sometimes that pessimism is 100% justified.

 

I don't consider being realistic pessimism. Pessimism is seeing something that is good or average and thinking it is bad or negative.

[Hugh2]

I don't consider being realistic pessimism. Pessimism is seeing something that is good or average and thinking it is bad or negative.

 

Right, the glass is half full or half empty. Then there are those of us who realize the glass is going to be empty eventually and there's nothing in the fridge to fill it back up with.

[Bellhorn04]

Right, the glass is half full or half empty. Then there are those of us who realize the glass is going to be empty eventually and there's nothing in the fridge to fill it back up with.

 

The empty fridge can and will be replenished...it's just a question of how long it takes.

[moonslav59]

Padro has like $35M coming to him, why would the Sox be interest in him?

 

I'm not saying I want Prado and his bloated contract, but getting him is one way of upgrading 3B WITHOUT trading away a top prospect.

 

His contract is what would cause issues. His AVV is $13.3M, so getting him would not put us over the luxury limit this year (we pay 1/3 of that deal this year= about $4.5M). We could reset the tax for the future.

 

The real problem arises with that $13.3M in 2018 and 2019. He'd eat all of Young and Moreland's departing contracts next year, but the 2019 season is going to be extremely tight, budget wise. Perhaps we could deal him by then, but if he sucks, we're stuck with another big contract dud.

 

He is a decent fielder, and he can play 2B, OF and even SS in a pinch.

 

His career OPS is just .764, and he's below .700 so far this year. Hes' only been over his career OPS once since 2012, and then it was only .011 over.

 

.750 2013

.733 2015

.775 2016

.688 2017

 

He turns 34 this October. He doesn't seem to be aging well. Let's not go down this road again.

 

I say, "No thanks." But, it's not really a horrible idea, if we can get him for peanuts or get the Marlins to kick in some cash.

 

[moonslav59]

The empty fridge can and will be replenished...it's just a question of how long it takes.

 

People like to blame Ben for the horrible signings he made, justifiably so. Some blamed Theo, or partially blamed him, for the mess we had in 2012. Had we not won it all in 2013, that 4 year stretch would have gone down in Sox history as the worst evah!

 

It wasn't just poor signings and trades by Theo in his latter years and Ben afterwards, much of the problem was caused by a near "empty fridge". Except for 2013, which some label as a "fluke", It was only when Betts, Bogey and JBJ rose to the bigs that we started winning again.

 

We don't have to guess about the future, we only have to look to the past. According to soxprospects.com, here were our top prospects leading up to 2012:

 

2008(Fall):

Lars Anderson

Michael Bowden

Josh Reddick

Michael Almanzar

Casey Kelly

Daniel Bard

R Westmoreland

Y Navarro

Argenis Diaz

Che-Hsuan Lin

 

2009

Kelly

Reddick

Kalish

Westmoreland

Anderson

Tazawa

Bowden

Rizzo

Pimental

Exposito

 

2010

Kelly (soon to be traded for AGon)

Kalish

Rizzo (soon to be traded for AGon)

Anderson

Iggy

Doubront

Ranaudo

Reddick

Pimental

D Britton

K Vitek

 

2011

Middy

Kalish

Ranaudo

Bogey

Iggy

Lava

Barnes

Brentz

Jacobs

Swihart

 

2012 (The farm begins to grow- look 3-4 years from then)

Bogey

Barnes

JBJ

Webster

Brentz

Cecchini

Swihart

Owens

Iggy

Britton

 

There's almost a direct correlation between having a strong farm and being successful 3-5 years from then and having a poor farm and struggling 3-5 years from then.

 

Free agents fill gaps, but advancing prospects are the major key to winning and winning for an extended time.

 

[S5Dewey]

You don't say?

 

You noticed, huh?

[S5Dewey]

If I had to choose between and all .800+ ops lineup with average to subpar defense and an all .600 OPS lineup with better to superior defense I'd take the .800 OPS lineup every single time. All things considered, the .800 OPS team would be in contention and the .600 team would struggle to win games.

 

To be fair, I do think there are some who undervalue defense, especially at certain positions, but I think there are those of us who overvalue it as well. Nothing wrong with preferring something as a fan, some people like the long ball, some love watching a pitcher execute his game, and some love watching the diving play but the reality is if this team wants to upgrade the lineup it's going to be awfully hard going into the playoffs with two black holes in the lineup.

 

That subpar defense is going to cost a team a lot of runs that don't show up in the box score.

 

I would never advocate for nine .600 OPS guys just as I'd never advocate for nine players with outstanding defense. (It's too bad we can't easily quantify defense like we can offense so we could compare apples to apples instead of apples to.... ahhh... whatever). However, if a team has 4-5 hitters with an OPS >800 then can afford a couple of .600's - as long as those .600's play solid defense.

[moonslav59]

That subpar defense is going to cost a team a lot of runs that don't show up in the box score.

 

I would never advocate for nine .600 OPS guys just as I'd never advocate for nine players with outstanding defense. (It's too bad we can't easily quantify defense like we can offense so we could compare apples to apples instead of apples to.... ahhh... whatever). However, if a team has 4-5 hitters with an OPS >800 then can afford a couple of .600's - as long as those .600's play solid defense.

 

We now have the top UZR team in MLB ... AND... 5 players over

.799, 6 over .787 and 7 over .761.

 

Our two "black hole" positions are well above .600, at least recently at 3B.

 

Catchers:

.676 Vaz

.672 Leon

 

3B:

.805 Lin (43 PAs)

.803 Marrero (last 28 days & 55 PAs)

(Marrero also has an amazing 1.135 OPS vs LHPs in 39 PAs)

 

No more crappy D at 3B and the makings of a nice platoon at 3B, C, LF (Beni-Young) and C (Vaz-Leon) are making our line-up look (potentially) black hole free.

[S5Dewey]

We now have the top UZR team in MLB ... AND... 5 players over

.799, 6 over .787 and 7 over .761.

 

Our two "black hole" positions are well above .600, at least recently at 3B.

 

Catchers:

.676 Vaz

.672 Leon

 

3B:

.805 Lin (43 PAs)

.803 Marrero (last 28 days & 55 PAs)

(Marrero also has an amazing 1.135 OPS vs LHPs in 39 PAs)

 

No more crappy D at 3B and the makings of a nice platoon at 3B, C, LF (Beni-Young) and C (Vaz-Leon) are making our line-up look (potentially) black hole free.

 

Thanks for all of this, Moon. I have to wonder how much of that Team UZR is due to our outfield.

 

This is why we're currently in first place in the ALE and it's also why I'm against trading anyone decent for a 3b.

[moonslav59]

Thanks for all of this, Moon. I have to wonder how much of that Team UZR is due to our outfield.

 

This is why we're currently in first place in the ALE and it's also why I'm against trading anyone decent for a 3b.

 

I think the improvement with 3B defense (Lin/Marrero) is part of the rise, but certainly our OF defense has been superb. Health with out OF'ers has been important.

 

We are now up to 16th in UZR/150 at -0.4 at 3B!

 

OF UZR

15.8 MIA

13.3 BOS

10.9 KCR

8.3 TEX

7.6 NYY

7.3 CIN

 

OF DRS

25 MIA

24 BOS

18 MN

17 TBR

14 NYY

12 CIN

9 TEX

 

We're 10th in SS UZR/150 (+3.5) but 24th in DRS (-5)

4th in 2B UZR/150 at +8.0

8th at 1B with a +3.9 UZR/150

fangraphs has us listed at 9th in catcher D.

 

[moonslav59]

The Sox are...

 

1st in Defense in MLB (UZR) and 2nd in UZR/150 (+6.3).

3rd in Pitching (WAR) and 4th in ERs allowed. (4th in least Runs allowed as well)

9th in Offense (Runs scored)

 

[mvp 78]

Right, the glass is half full or half empty. Then there are those of us who realize the glass is going to be empty eventually and there's nothing in the fridge to fill it back up with.

 

^ pessimism

 

There's more than enough time to fill the farm and get young assets back in trades.

 

I'm sorry that you guys strain to see rain clouds on a sunny day.

[jacksonianmarch]

LOL, yes, there is plenty of time to re-stock the cabinet. The problem is, you're not going to re-stock with premium talent when you're making the playoffs every year. You're going to have to connect in the INTL arena and maybe develop a few lower draftees into something of use. Let's put it this way, picking at the back end of the draft is going to make it very difficult to re-stock and one of the things about a strong window is that you will have less in the cupboard

[moonslav59]

^ pessimism

 

There's more than enough time to fill the farm and get young assets back in trades.

 

I'm sorry that you guys strain to see rain clouds on a sunny day.

 

We're not straining. We're not obsessed.

 

It's hard to build up a farm with low draft picks.

 

It's hard to trade assets for young talent when one is in a "window".

 

It's not impossible, but assuming an adequate rebuild is a near foregone conclusion is ignoring the tough realities of today's baseball system.

 

I liked our draft this year. our international signings looked great. I feel better than I did a few months ago, but we still have a long way to go and we will need "replenishment as early next year (Devers for Pablo, Travis for Moreland and maybe Swihart for Young). After that, it gets highly skeptical.

[Hugh2]

LOL, yes, there is plenty of time to re-stock the cabinet. The problem is, you're not going to re-stock with premium talent when you're making the playoffs every year. You're going to have to connect in the INTL arena and maybe develop a few lower draftees into something of use. Let's put it this way, picking at the back end of the draft is going to make it very difficult to re-stock and one of the things about a strong window is that you will have less in the cupboard

 

Exactly, when you look at this team, and take the talent that is either homegrown (Mookie Betts, JBJ) or traded for (Chris Sale). You can see they were acquired under old rules.

 

All the rules that teams like the Sox were better at working than everyone else have been changed. You can't throw money around in the draft anymore (mookie Betts) you don't get multiple picks in the first round anymore (Matt Barnes, JBJ) (kopech = Sale) you can't just burn money in the international market either (Moncada = Kopech) Lin got 2 million.

 

I'm not saying it can't be done, I'm not saying it's hopeless, but as a fan who is fascinated with the business side, and the development of talent etc etc etc I'm curious as to how things will transpire in the future.

 

Just saying "prospects are just prospects and the problem will fix itself" in my eyes is sticking your head in the sand. That doesn't take away any problems. As a Sox fan who doesn't plan on dying the next three years I care about the future.

 

I understand that everyone cheers in their own way, and different things spark our interest so to each their own. But please, this isn't being pessimistic, weren't negative people because we care about a subject more than other people.

[moonslav59]

Exactly, when you look at this team, and take the talent that is either homegrown (Mookie Betts, JBJ) or traded for (Chris Sale). You can see they were acquired under old rules.

 

All the rules that teams like the Sox were better at working than everyone else have been changed. You can't throw money around in the draft anymore (mookie Betts) you don't get multiple picks in the first round anymore (Matt Barnes, JBJ) (kopech = Sale) you can't just burn money in the international market either (Moncada = Kopech) Lin got 2 million.

 

I'm not saying it can't be done, I'm not saying it's hopeless, but as a fan who is fascinated with the business side, and the development of talent etc etc etc I'm curious as to how things will transpire in the future.

 

Just saying "prospects are just prospects and the problem will fix itself" in my eyes is sticking your head in the sand. That doesn't take away any problems. As a Sox fan who doesn't plan on dying the next three years I care about the future.

 

I understand that everyone cheers in their own way, and different things spark our interest so to each their own. But please, this isn't being pessimistic, weren't negative people because we care about a subject more than other people.

 

Well said, hugh.

 

I'm surprised at how some seem either not to care or are willing to just believe that since we found ways in the past, we can and will continue to do so, despite the strict new rules and regulations. Some penalties now involve more than just a financial tax. We can lose the ability to add young talent by going $20M or more over the limit. It's hard to imagine us doing that, but it's hard to imagine us keeping this team together beyond 2019 without doing so.

 

I hope our projections are terribly wrong. We have drafted some great players in the later rounds and had some good luck with international signings, but even some of those acquisitions were as a result of our financial advantage that is no longer so easy to exert.

 

[Bellhorn04]

I'm surprised at how some seem either not to care or are willing to just believe that since we found ways in the past, we can and will continue to do so, despite the strict new rules and regulations. Some penalties now involve more than just a financial tax. We can lose the ability to add young talent by going $20M or more over the limit. It's hard to imagine us doing that, but it's hard to imagine us keeping this team together beyond 2019 without doing so.

 

My attitude is not that I don't care, but it's something that's so far out of my control and so full of uncertainties that I don't see the point of thinking about it very much yet. The time will come when it will be impossible to avoid thinking about it. But even then - nothing I can do.

 

If the cliff comes so be it. We'll just have to stick it out till the next up cycle comes around.

[moonslav59]

My attitude is not that I don't care, but it's something that's so far out of my control and so full of uncertainties that I don't see the point of thinking about it very much yet. The time will come when it will be impossible to avoid thinking about it. But even then - nothing I can do.

 

If the cliff comes so be it. We'll just have to stick it out till the next up cycle comes around.

 

You don't need to have all the details and accurate projections to know that the more good prospects you keep, the better chance you have at avoiding cliffs and valleys. It's a delicate balance between the here and now, the 3-4 year "window" and the extended systemic plan.

 

True, there's nothing we can do, but the GM can do a lot to change the future.

 

A ring or two will help ease any ill feelings, if we do indeed hit a cliff afterwards, but if it does reach a point where it's impossible to avoid thinking about it, it will probably be too late. I can see DD being roasted alive 4-5 years from now by some of the very fans that praised the moves he made to bring it on.

 

He better win a ring or two, or he'll be treated worse than Ben has been (assuming we eventually go off a cliff).

[Bellhorn04]

I'm not sure the judgment of DD will come down to winning a ring or not. A lot of fans now seem to accept the fact that once you make the playoffs the rest is a crapshoot. If DD's Red Sox win the division 3 or 4 times that might be enough for a lot of fans even if we don't go all the way.

[Spudboy]

Pretty sure you don't know the first thing about the word you just typed

 

I do. I had the opportunity to read in-depth about the physiology of the erection in one of my Father's OLD reference books.

 

Actually an erection is quite a complicated process.

 

The problem with a priapism is is the stagnation of blood in the tissue of the penis and the resulting low oxygen levels.

 

Of course my memory could be failing me.

 

But at least at 62 I am still in the game!!!

[Spudboy]

I made this post to show why your team shouldn't stand pat on your weaknesses. Your window is three years and wasting one with an auto out at a power position is assinine

 

Committing $184. mil to two declining players at the position was the real insanity.

[Hugh2]

My attitude is not that I don't care, but it's something that's so far out of my control and so full of uncertainties that I don't see the point of thinking about it very much yet. The time will come when it will be impossible to avoid thinking about it. But even then - nothing I can do.

 

If the cliff comes so be it. We'll just have to stick it out till the next up cycle comes around.

 

Everything is out of our control. Whether they win or lose, make the playoffs, who they bring in for the 8th inning, whether or not they sign a pitcher etc etc etc.

 

We are just a very diversified bunch in terms of what we want to complain about and that is basically the foundation of every fan forum.