A Realistic View at 2017 Part II

[Bellhorn04]

Losing HanRam & Pablo's contracts the same year Sale, Bogey & Porcello are up for extensions makes keeping 2 of the 3 reasonably possible. There's a chance to keep all three, if we have already filled the shoes of Kimbrel, Pomeranz, Young, Moreland and Ross from within the system.

 

That might be a lot to ask for, but only Kimbrel has a major role right now.

 

I could see "the cliff" being 4 years away, when we will already almost certainly be significantly over the luxury tax but not at the $20M over penalty stage. After 2020, we have these players coming off the books but needing replacement or extension:

 

Betts

JBJ

Wright

Smith

Vaz

Leon

 

None of these guys are "fluff" like Pablo will have been the year before. Take Betts or JBJ plus Vaz and Leon out of the previous year's projected line-up and what do we have?

 

2019:

1) Beni LF

2) Bogey SS

3) Betts RF

4) Devers 3B

5) JBJ CF

6) Pedey 2B

7) Travis 1B

8) Dalbec DH

9) Swihart/Vaz/Leon C

Bench: Hernandez, Chatham/Longhi/Ockimey/Marrero/Matheny

 

2020:

1) Beni CF

2) Travis 1B

3) Bogey SS

4) JBJ RF

5) Devers 3B

6) Pedey 2B

7) Dalbec LF

8) Swihart C

9) Hernandez DH

 

or, take out JBJ and insert Betts.

 

Yikes!

 

We'll need a lot to go right for 2020's team to compete for a ring.

 

 

Stop torturing yourself and us with this stuff LOL

 

Maybe we'll finish last in 2021 and 2022. So be it. We survived 2014 and 2015. Maybe we'll have high draft picks and rebuild for a great team in 2023.

[Spudboy]

Lol.

 

Got to hand it to Moon, though. He puts a lot of thought and effort into the chapter - like posts.

[moonslav59]

Stop torturing yourself and us with this stuff LOL

 

Maybe we'll finish last in 2021 and 2022. So be it. We survived 2014 and 2015. Maybe we'll have high draft picks and rebuild for a great team in 2023.

 

True enough, and if we're able to just keep Sale, Betts and assuming Price is still producing in 4-5 years, we may be able to be at about .500 even with a bunch of scrubs filling out 10-15 slots on the 25 man roster.

[moonslav59]

Lol.

 

Got to hand it to Moon, though. He puts a lot of thought and effort into the chapter - like posts.

 

Remember, this was my "Optimist Chapter" !

 

My "Pessimist Chapter" might exceed the character limit on a post.

[Nick]

It's f***ing time to switch Xander and Beni in the line up. Xander's average is now close to .400 while Beni is hitting below .250.

 

I say this only because Moreland has 9 doubles and a home run BUT only 2 RBIs. Got a ride the hot streak. Beni's not getting on base from 2 hole.

 

Don't be f***ing stubborn. Make some changes.

[Fisk]

It's f***ing time to switch Xander and Beni in the line up. Xander's average is now close to .400 while Beni is hitting below .250.

 

I say this only because Moreland has 9 doubles and a home run BUT only 2 RBIs. Got a ride the hot streak. Beni's not getting on base from 2 hole.

 

Don't be f***ing stubborn. Make some changes.

 

This was the first game that Beni did not get on base, he will be fine.

[moonslav59]

This was the first game that Beni did not get on base, he will be fine.

 

Plus, Bogey only has about 30 PAs.

 

I do like the idea of Bogey in the 2 hole for the long run, but I want Beni leading off--assuming he proves he belongs.

[Kimmi]

It's f***ing time to switch Xander and Beni in the line up. Xander's average is now close to .400 while Beni is hitting below .250.

 

I say this only because Moreland has 9 doubles and a home run BUT only 2 RBIs. Got a ride the hot streak. Beni's not getting on base from 2 hole.

 

Don't be f***ing stubborn. Make some changes.

 

It's too early to shake up the line up IMO, especially considering all of the absent players that we've had. I think Beni will be fine.

 

That said, I would have preferred starting Beni down further in the order, then moving him up the line up as warranted. That would be the better option than starting him in the #2 hole, then having to move him down if he is not successful.

[Kimmi]

This terrible start by Pablo is probably the worst thing that could happen for him. I know that fans are not going to have any patience with him after the last two years. He is already starting to become a scapegoat.

[Bellhorn04]

This terrible start by Pablo is probably the worst thing that could happen for him. I know that fans are not going to have any patience with him after the last two years. He is already starting to become a scapegoat.

 

'Tis true. He needed to get off to a good start. He's still got some time to turn things around but that time may be short before not just the fans, but team management, conclude that he's done.

[Spudboy]

This terrible start by Pablo is probably the worst thing that could happen for him. I know that fans are not going to have any patience with him after the last two years. He is already starting to become a scapegoat.

 

As probably Pablow's harshest critic on Talksox, I have been almost silent.

 

He is not getting hits and his futility is amplified by a batting style that makes him look like he is uselessly flailing at bad pitches. But that is how he hits! He is like a poor man's Vlad Gurerro. He swings at almost everything.

 

With all that, He looks a lot more athletic running and making plays. I think that his long layoff may be working against him and maybe the baseball Gods are just taking a nap when he comes to the plate.

 

Whatever, It is only smart and fair that he be given an extended look this spring. If he is still hitting below Mendoza or near it when June arrives, start Hernandez.

 

I have spoken much ill about Pablow but it remains clear that a career average Pablow makes the Sox a better team. Plus they need to see if they can extract any value from his silly contract. I don't see the Sox being able to trade him this tear or next regardless of what he does because of the money owed to him.

Edited April 16, 2017 by Spudboy

[Fisk]

As probably Pablow's harshest critic on Talksox, I have been almost silent.

 

He is not getting hits and his futility is amplified by a batting style that makes him look like he is uselessly flailing at bad pitches. But that is how he hits! He is like a poor man's Vlad Gurerro. He swings at almost everything.

 

With all that, He looks a lot more athletic running and making plays. I think that his long layoff may be working against him and maybe the baseball Gods are just taking a nap when he comes to the plate.

 

Whatever, It is only smart and fair that he be given an extended look this spring. If he is still hitting below Mendoza or near it when June arrives, start Hernandez.

 

I have spoken much ill about Pablow but it remains clear that a career average Pablow makes the Sox a better team. Plus they need to see if they can extract any value from his silly contract. I don't see the Sox being able to trade him this tear or next regardless of what he does because of the money owed to him.

 

Can Marco Hernandez be a starting third basemen if Pablo doesn't improve. Wouldn't have the home runs but should have some doubles and triples with a good average.

[S5Dewey]

As probably Pablow's harshest critic on Talksox, I have been almost silent.

 

He is not getting hits and his futility is amplified by a batting style that makes him look like he is uselessly flailing at bad pitches. But that is how he hits! He is like a poor man's Vlad Gurerro. He swings at almost everything.

 

With all that, He looks a lot more athletic running and making plays. I think that his long layoff may be working against him and maybe the baseball Gods are just taking a nap when he comes to the plate.

 

Whatever, It is only smart and fair that he be given an extended look this spring. If he is still hitting below Mendoza or near it when June arrives, start Hernandez.

 

I have spoken much ill about Pablow but it remains clear that a career average Pablow makes the Sox a better team. Plus they need to see if they can extract any value from his silly contract. I don't see the Sox being able to trade him this tear or next regardless of what he does because of the money owed to him.

 

Well put. I couldn't have said it better myself!

 

...and describing him as a poor man's Vlad Gurerro had me LOL. Probably because it's TRUE!

[jad]

The difference is that Vlad could actually hit those pitches 2 feet out of the strike zone. Pablo can't hit anything, and the last couple of weeks of tape he's provided to opposing pitchers doesn't give any of them reason ever to throw him a strike.

[Spudboy]

The difference is that Vlad could actually hit those pitches 2 feet out of the strike zone. Pablo can't hit anything, and the last couple of weeks of tape he's provided to opposing pitchers doesn't give any of them reason ever to throw him a strike.

 

Hence Poor Man's.

[oldtimer]

The difference is that Vlad could actually hit those pitches 2 feet out of the strike zone. Pablo can't hit anything, and the last couple of weeks of tape he's provided to opposing pitchers doesn't give any of them reason ever to throw him a strike.

 

Pablo's an average fielder among 3rd basemen at best and they had hoped he would come close to his career average hitting. He had one at bat yesterday where he fouled off a few and went to 7 pitches before grounding out. Not much to recommend him right now but they will give him a long look due to the contract. We do have Marco available and I doubt if he would be less than an average fielder and he is more disciplined at the plate. The situation is a dilemma for management but they do need to stay competitive so the decision point may be as early as the end of April.

[S5Dewey]

Pablo's an average fielder among 3rd basemen at best and they had hoped he would come close to his career average hitting. He had one at bat yesterday where he fouled off a few and went to 7 pitches before grounding out. Not much to recommend him right now but they will give him a long look due to the contract. We do have Marco available and I doubt if he would be less than an average fielder and he is more disciplined at the plate. The situation is a dilemma for management but they do need to stay competitive so the decision point may be as early as the end of April.

 

This is pretty much what I've been thinking for some time. Hernandez won't be any worse than Sandoval defensively or offensively but at a lot less money. A low bar, I know. But still.....

 

I've been hoping Pablo would stage a bit of a comeback - at least enough of a comeback to make some other team(s) who are desperate for a 3B to take a chance on him if they only had to take part (half?) of his salary thinking that he may regain his old form. Hey... someone took that chance on Clay so it's not impossible!

 

Only time will tell, I guess.

[moonslav59]

This terrible start by Pablo is probably the worst thing that could happen for him. I know that fans are not going to have any patience with him after the last two years. He is already starting to become a scapegoat.

 

At least he's had a couple of big hits.

[Spudboy]

Pablo's an average fielder among 3rd basemen at best and they had hoped he would come close to his career average hitting. He had one at bat yesterday where he fouled off a few and went to 7 pitches before grounding out. Not much to recommend him right now but they will give him a long look due to the contract. We do have Marco available and I doubt if he would be less than an average fielder and he is more disciplined at the plate. The situation is a dilemma for management but they do need to stay competitive so the decision point may be as early as the end of April.

 

Yup. This situation is not unlike last year when Shaw took the job away from him. At least this year we know we have a guy in Hernandez who can play and hit well enough in MLB.

 

Pablow needs to get going soon or he is tits up this season.

[moonslav59]

Can Marco Hernandez be a starting third basemen if Pablo doesn't improve. Wouldn't have the home runs but should have some doubles and triples with a good average.

 

Pablo was never a big HR guy either. I wish Marco was a better defender at 3B, but he might be our best 2nd option.

[Nick]

We got guys that get hurt going from 1st to 2nd base....$20M and we can't run the bases....

[Jasonbay44]

We got guys that get hurt going from 1st to 2nd base....$20M and we can't run the bases....

 

Players get hurt all the time running the bases, what does the money Hanley makes have to do with a freak accident? It's not like he did something stupid to get hurt..

[Nick]

Players get hurt all the time running the bases, what does the money Hanley makes have to do with a freak accident? It's not like he did something stupid to get hurt..

 

It's called "false hustle" and Hanley does it all the time. He's the dumbest base runner I've ever seen. The ball was already in infield.

 

Man's got to know his limits, he doesn't. Stay put at 2B, extend the inning for next hitter. We're not paying him $20M to be a base runner.

 

Now he will be out for few days. But your are right, what's $20M got to do with anything? Maybe he can help the team by working on his shoulder so he can play some 1B.

Edited April 16, 2017 by Nick

[Nick]

"After that, Brad Miller hit a fly ball to left-center field, and Andrew Benintendi drifted out towards the ball. Except, he couldn’t make the play. It’s hard to be sure, but he looked like he both took a bad route to the ball and then wasn’t sure where the wall was. Whatever the reason, it should’ve been caught and was a play in which the Red Sox missed Jackie Bradley." Per Matt Collins

 

Beni is no Bradley Jr in CF for sure.

[oldtimer]

It's called "false hustle" and Hanley does it all the time. He's the dumbest base runner I've ever seen. The ball was already in infield.

 

Man's got to know his limits, he doesn't. Stay put at 2B, extend the inning for next hitter. We're not paying him $20M to be a base runner.

 

Now he will be out for few days. But your are right, what's $20M got to do with anything?

 

Selsky is not hitting well enough to take the DH role so maybe it will be Young. Moreland is a pleasant surprise and a job well done by DD, at least so far. Pablo takes a lot f cuts and sooner or later will run into one. He did today. Is it enough? For the time being it will be. The top of the order, not including Pedroia had an excellent hitting day. Those pushing for Bogaerts to swap positions in the lineup need to learn a little patience.

[cp176]

Looks to me like it might take this team a little time to establish their new identity without the big bat in the middle of the lineup. I'm pulling hard for Sandoval. He has done some hard work and deserves better. I don't think that Hernandez will ever be more than just a fill in at third. He is a 2nd baseman/shortsop. He may very well hit for average but this team is going to need some power. The Ramirez injury complicates things from a potential power source for sure.

[moonslav59]

It seems like every one of Pablo's few hits have counted.

[Kimmi]

As probably Pablow's harshest critic on Talksox, I have been almost silent.

 

He is not getting hits and his futility is amplified by a batting style that makes him look like he is uselessly flailing at bad pitches. But that is how he hits! He is like a poor man's Vlad Gurerro. He swings at almost everything.

 

With all that, He looks a lot more athletic running and making plays. I think that his long layoff may be working against him and maybe the baseball Gods are just taking a nap when he comes to the plate.

 

Whatever, It is only smart and fair that he be given an extended look this spring. If he is still hitting below Mendoza or near it when June arrives, start Hernandez.

 

I have spoken much ill about Pablow but it remains clear that a career average Pablow makes the Sox a better team. Plus they need to see if they can extract any value from his silly contract. I don't see the Sox being able to trade him this tear or next regardless of what he does because of the money owed to him.

 

Good post. I'm glad he got a big hit today.

 

I am pulling for the guy.

[moonslav59]

Looks to me like it might take this team a little time to establish their new identity without the big bat in the middle of the lineup. I'm pulling hard for Sandoval. He has done some hard work and deserves better. I don't think that Hernandez will ever be more than just a fill in at third. He is a 2nd baseman/shortsop. He may very well hit for average but this team is going to need some power. The Ramirez injury complicates things from a potential power source for sure.

 

If Hernandez ends up replacing Pablo, how much power will we lose? 8-10 HRs over a full season?

 

While I agree replacing Papi is going to force the team to redefine itself, I wouldn't say we are "without the big bat in the middle of the line-up." We have these players returning:

 

Betts .318 31 113

HRam .286 30 111

J.B.Jr .267 26 87

Bogey .294 21 89

 

Not to mention these 2016 hitters pro-rated to 650 PAs:

Young .276 25 70

S Leon .310 15 80

 

I'm not trying to minimize the loss of MLB's top OPS guy last year, but we still have some top quality hitters on this year's team. Here's how our top 4 hitters placed among all MLB batters with 600+ PAs last year:

#15 Betts .897

#24 HRam .866

#31 J B Jr .835

#39 Pedey .825

#47 Bogey .802

 

I'm not sure any other teams have 3 in the top 30 and 5 players in the top 50.

 

The middle of our order should not be a concern.

 

 

[cp176]

If Hernandez ends up replacing Pablo, how much power will we lose? 8-10 HRs over a full season?

 

While I agree replacing Papi is going to force the team to redefine itself, I wouldn't say we are "without the big bat in the middle of the line-up." We have these players returning:

 

Betts .318 31 113

HRam .286 30 111

J.B.Jr .267 26 87

Bogey .294 21 89

 

Not to mention these 2016 hitters pro-rated to 650 PAs:

Young .276 25 70

S Leon .310 15 80

 

I'm not trying to minimize the loss of MLB's top OPS guy last year, but we still have some top quality hitters on this year's team. Here's how our top 4 hitters placed among all MLB batters with 600+ PAs last year:

#15 Betts .897

#24 HRam .866

#31 J B Jr .835

#39 Pedey .825

#47 Bogey .802

 

I'm not sure any other teams have 3 in the top 30 and 5 players in the top 50.

 

The middle of our order should not be a concern.

 

 

 

My statement about the power bat in the middle was directly related to the possibility of losing Ramirez for any length of time. I assumed that you would know that. I know that it is never a good thing to assume anything. you have an amazing way of turning my words into thoughts that i don't have. I hope that what you say proves true that we have all of the big bats that we will need.