A Realistic View at 2017 Part II

[moonslav59]

My statement about the power bat in the middle was directly related to the possibility of losing Ramirez for any length of time. I assumed that you would know that. I know that it is never a good thing to assume anything. you have an amazing way of turning my words into thoughts that i don't have. I hope that what you say proves true that we have all of the big bats that we will need.

 

Sorry.

 

You never mentioned HanRam, so I assumed you meant Papi.

 

You are right. Without HRam, our middle of the line-up is much weaker. We still have Betts, but nobody else with 30+ HR power, except maybe JBJ (who is out until maybe Friday).

Edited April 17, 2017 by moonslav59

[Nick]

Moreland has been impressive. $5.5M was well spent.

 

Did I hear right that Kimbrel has converted 23 straight save opportunities? I have no doubt that DD will pick up his option for next year. If Barnes, Hembree and Kelly continue to improve and impress and Smith and Thornburg are good as advertised upon their return, then we will have pretty stout bullpen. Could use a lefty. Maybe convert B Johnson as a reliever?

 

We could use little more consistent power from HRam.

 

At some point, if Pablo continues to struggle at the plate, can anyone see him following Craig route? Or is his time vested so that 'exile' is an unavailable option? He needs to get on a hot streak.

Edited April 17, 2017 by Nick

[Nick]

Are we a better team with Brock Holt/Selsky combo or Rutledge/Hernandez combo when Bradley Jr returns?

[moonslav59]

Moreland has been impressive. $5.5M was well spent.

 

Did I hear right that Kimbrel has converted 23 straight save opportunities? I have no doubt that DD will pick up his option for next year. If Barnes, Hembree and Kelly continue to improve and impress and Smith and Thornburg are good as advertised upon their return, then we will have pretty stout bullpen. Could use a lefty. Maybe convert B Johnson as a reliever?

 

We could use little more consistent power from HRam.

 

At some point, if Pablo continues to struggle at the plate, can anyone see him following Craig route? Or is his time vested so that 'exile' is an unavailable option? He needs to get on a hot streak.

 

Although Thornburg is a righty, he is one of MLB's best RP'ers vs LHBs. His reverse splits are among baseballs most extreme. His reverse splits are nearly 200 points in OPS against!

[moonslav59]

Are we a better team with Brock Holt/Selsky combo or Rutledge/Hernandez combo when Bradley Jr returns?

 

Holt/Hernandez, because Holt can play the OF and 1B.

[cp176]

As much as I like Hernandez even at third, I am still really pulling for Sandoval. if we can get the good Sandoval, I will take what power he can give us. Hernandez may very well hit, but there never has been much hr pop in that bat. Now I get what comes next - Home run power is over rated yada yada yada. I'm just saying that If even the threat of power (meaning Ramirez primarily) is taken out of that lineup, it is going to make things difficult. I love the fact that we have a team that is a solid contact type team but I still don't under estimate how much influence a three run homer can have either.

[moonslav59]

As much as I like Hernandez even at third, I am still really pulling for Sandoval. if we can get the good Sandoval, I will take what power he can give us. Hernandez may very well hit, but there never has been much hr pop in that bat. Now I get what comes next - Home run power is over rated yada yada yada. I'm just saying that If even the threat of power (meaning Ramirez primarily) is taken out of that lineup, it is going to make things difficult. I love the fact that we have a team that is a solid contact type team but I still don't under estimate how much influence a three run homer can have either.

 

I'd like power from 3B as well, but it's not like Pablo is a major power source, even when doing well. He's only had over 16 HRs twice (last time in 2011) and over 27 2Bs twice (last time 2010).

 

Marco has hit 20 HRs in his last 1,000 PAs in the system, including 9 in 356 ABs last year. Marco has 58 2B+3B in his last 1,000 PAs as well. That's not far from what Pablo gives us. Pablo has 13 HRs and 27 2B+3B in his last 500 PAs (26HR/54 2B+3B pace) and 29 Hrs/56 2B+3B in his last 1200 PAs (24 HR/50 2B+3B pace for 1,000 PAs).

 

I'm not happy with Marco's defense at 3B either- not that Pablo has returned to his old decent-defending self (yet?).

 

As much as I love marco, I'm sticking with Pablo. I'll give him a long leash, too. At least his few hits have been big ones!

 

[oldtimer]

For those wishing to push Beni down the batting order as late as a couple of games ago, the managers patience paid off with two 3 hit games in a row. He is going to get on base a lot even if he is not likely to hit many home runs. Good guy to hit second in this lineup. Beni is now over 300 (314 I believe). I like his swing and with Betts also coming alive in the 3rd hole, we can cause a lot of opportunities for Hanram.

[moonslav59]

For those wishing to push Beni down the batting order as late as a couple of games ago, the managers patience paid off with two 3 hit games in a row. He is going to get on base a lot even if he is not likely to hit many home runs. Good guy to hit second in this lineup. Beni is now over 300 (314 I believe). I like his swing and with Betts also coming alive in the 3rd hole, we can cause a lot of opportunities for Hanram.

 

I was thinking the same thing about posters getting upset over a tiny sample size from Beni.

 

In the long run, I'd like to see him bat #1, so he can steal some bases in front of good hitters.

[cp176]

I'd like power from 3B as well, but it's not like Pablo is a major power source, even when doing well. He's only had over 16 HRs twice (last time in 2011) and over 27 2Bs twice (last time 2010).

 

Marco has hit 20 HRs in his last 1,000 PAs in the system, including 9 in 356 ABs last year. Marco has 58 2B+3B in his last 1,000 PAs as well. That's not far from what Pablo gives us. Pablo has 13 HRs and 27 2B+3B in his last 500 PAs (26HR/54 2B+3B pace) and 29 Hrs/56 2B+3B in his last 1200 PAs (24 HR/50 2B+3B pace for 1,000 PAs).

 

I'm not happy with Marco's defense at 3B either- not that Pablo has returned to his old decent-defending self (yet?).

 

As much as I love marco, I'm sticking with Pablo. I'll give him a long leash, too. At least his few hits have been big ones!

 

 

Actually after watching today's game, I'm pretty sure that Hernandez could do a better than average job at third base. His error was not made on a tough play with the wind blowing like it was. Tough play. I just hope he doesn't wind up there. I still and will see him as a 2nd/ss guy. In that order.

[moonslav59]

Actually after watching today's game, I'm pretty sure that Hernandez could do a better than average job at third base. His error was not made on a tough play with the wind blowing like it was. Tough play. I just hope he doesn't wind up there. I still and will see him as a 2nd/ss guy. In that order.

 

He might be better than Pablo defensively at 3B, but it's hard to tell. Marco has not played 3B that much in his career, and Pablo's defensive profile is hard to pinpoint after such a horrific 2015 season on defense.

 

It's too bad Marco and Brock's best defensive positions are 2B. It's the position locked up the longest.

 

I've been a huge fan of Marco's since the trade, but I'm pulling hard for Pablo to play better.

[Maxbialystock]

Overall I have no complaints about the lineup this year. In fact, I think it could end up even better than last year's, and that's saying a whole lot because Big Papi was amazing last year. I think Moreland is over his head and that everyone else without exception can hit better than they have so far. Forget 1 thru 5 too because I'm really talking about 6 thru 9--Bogaerts, Sandoval, Young/Bradley, and Leon/Vazquez. I think those four slots have the potential to be just plain mean. As it is, Sandoval in the 7 slot with a paltry OPS of .577 is tied for the team lead in rbi's with 9.

 

If we divide the team into four arbitrary categories--hitting, starting pitching, relief pitching, and fielding--I would say that so far the bullpen has been by far the best. Then maybe hitting, then fielding, and last the rotation.

 

I always expected hitting to be the best of the four, but was encouraged by the acquisition of Sale, the Cy Young last year for Porcello, the obvious potential last year of Wright, and the departure of Buchholz. I had no real expectations for the bullpen. And I only mention fielding because you can't ignore something that depends on all 8 players out there backing up the pitcher.

 

Given our team stats to date and the fact that we--they--are 8-5, it is really hard not to believe in this team. As moonslav and others keep insisting, the rotation should right itself.

[cp176]

Actually after watching today's game, I'm pretty sure that Hernandez could do a better than average job at third base. His error was not made on a tough play with the wind blowing like it was. Tough play. I just hope he doesn't wind up there. I still and will see him as a 2nd/ss guy. In that order.

 

I actually meant to say that the error he made was on a very tough play.

[moonslav59]

Overall I have no complaints about the lineup this year. In fact, I think it could end up even better than last year's, and that's saying a whole lot because Big Papi was amazing last year. I think Moreland is over his head and that everyone else without exception can hit better than they have so far. Forget 1 thru 5 too because I'm really talking about 6 thru 9--Bogaerts, Sandoval, Young/Bradley, and Leon/Vazquez. I think those four slots have the potential to be just plain mean. As it is, Sandoval in the 7 slot with a paltry OPS of .577 is tied for the team lead in rbi's with 9.

 

If we divide the team into four arbitrary categories--hitting, starting pitching, relief pitching, and fielding--I would say that so far the bullpen has been by far the best. Then maybe hitting, then fielding, and last the rotation.

 

I always expected hitting to be the best of the four, but was encouraged by the acquisition of Sale, the Cy Young last year for Porcello, the obvious potential last year of Wright, and the departure of Buchholz. I had no real expectations for the bullpen. And I only mention fielding because you can't ignore something that depends on all 8 players out there backing up the pitcher.

 

Given our team stats to date and the fact that we--they--are 8-5, it is really hard not to believe in this team. As moonslav and others keep insisting, the rotation should right itself.

 

Nice post. I agree on your assessment. I'll add that not only does our 6-9 slots in the line-up have great potential, I think that even if they don't do great, they will be better than about 25 other teams' bottom of the orders.

[moonslav59]

I actually meant to say that the error he made was on a very tough play.

 

I wouldn't have called it an error.

[Kimmi]

Moreland has been impressive. $5.5M was well spent.

 

Did I hear right that Kimbrel has converted 23 straight save opportunities? I have no doubt that DD will pick up his option for next year. If Barnes, Hembree and Kelly continue to improve and impress and Smith and Thornburg are good as advertised upon their return, then we will have pretty stout bullpen. Could use a lefty. Maybe convert B Johnson as a reliever?

 

We could use little more consistent power from HRam.

 

At some point, if Pablo continues to struggle at the plate, can anyone see him following Craig route? Or is his time vested so that 'exile' is an unavailable option? He needs to get on a hot streak.

 

Yeah, but Pablo would have caught that pop up in foul territory in the first inning today.

[Kimmi]

For those wishing to push Beni down the batting order as late as a couple of games ago, the managers patience paid off with two 3 hit games in a row. He is going to get on base a lot even if he is not likely to hit many home runs. Good guy to hit second in this lineup. Beni is now over 300 (314 I believe). I like his swing and with Betts also coming alive in the 3rd hole, we can cause a lot of opportunities for Hanram.

 

I was not advocating moving him down the order. However, I was hesitant to have hitting so high to start with. But that's why we have Farrell. He knows the players better than any of us and he knows what they can and can't handle.

[Fisk]

I was not advocating moving him down the order. However, I was hesitant to have hitting so high to start with. But that's why we have Farrell. He knows the players better than any of us and he knows what they can and can't handle.

 

Solid 390 Obp.

[Kimmi]

Solid 390 Obp.

 

I am happy to admit that he is proving me wrong.

[Nick]

Yeah, but Pablo would have caught that pop up in foul territory in the first inning today.

 

Yes, I agee that he would have caught it today. Last year? He would have ate it. (it was low blow, but you teed it up for me, Kimmi)

[moonslav59]

As bad as the offense looked early, we can see some nice numbers now...

 

OBP:

.714 Vazquez

.429 Moreland

.400 Betts

.390 Beni

.375 HRam

.368 Bogey

.362 Young

.353 JBJ

.333 Pedey

.333 Holt

 

SLG:

1.083 Vazquez

.583 Moreland

.431 Beni

.429 JBJ

.412 Leon

 

 

[Fisk]

As bad as the offense looked early, we can see some nice numbers now...

 

OBP:

.714 Vazquez

.429 Moreland

.400 Betts

.390 Beni

.375 HRam

.368 Bogey

.362 Young

.353 JBJ

.333 Pedey

.333 Holt

 

SLG:

1.083 Vazquez

.583 Moreland

.431 Beni

.429 JBJ

.412 Leon

 

 

Just missing the homeruns they will start coming eventually.

[moonslav59]

Just missing the homeruns they will start coming eventually.

 

But, we are getting some key hits.

Edited April 18, 2017 by moonslav59

[Nick]

Bu, we are getting some key hits.

 

Right now we need our starting rotation to be better...

[moonslav59]

Right now we need our starting rotation to be better...

 

No doubt!

 

The rotation is still the least of my worries, but they have looked like our weak point, so far.

 

Out of ERod, Wright and Pom, nobody has made a claim to the rotation once Price returns.

Edited April 18, 2017 by moonslav59

[moonslav59]

If our staff ever gets fully healthy, some big decisions will need to be made.

 

I have to think these guys are locks (9):

 

SP: Sale, Porcello, Price

SP/LR: ERod, Wright, Pom

RP: Kimbrel, Smith, Thornburg

 

Highly Probable (2): Barnes, Kelly (Both have options remaining)

 

Probable (1): Ross (has options remaining)

 

Out of options: Hembree, Abad

 

Others with options: Taylor, Scott, Workman, N Ramirez, K Martin

Johnson, Kendrick, Owens, Elias, Havliand

 

We might try a two for one trade to make room for Hembree, or we may just trade Ross or Hembree or create a phantom DL for someone.

 

[Nick]

We might try a two for one trade to make room for Hembree, or we may just trade Ross or Hembree or create a phantom DL for someone.

 

I'd be very surprised if everyone is truly 100% healthy.

Edited April 18, 2017 by Nick

[oldtimer]

If our staff ever gets fully healthy, some big decisions will need to be made.

 

I have to think these guys are locks (9):

 

SP: Sale, Porcello, Price

SP/LR: ERod, Wright, Pom

RP: Kimbrel, Smith, Thornburg

 

Highly Probable (2): Barnes, Kelly (Both have options remaining)

 

Probable (1): Ross (has options remaining)

 

Out of options: Hembree, Abad

 

Others with options: Taylor, Scott, Workman, N Ramirez, K Martin

Johnson, Kendrick, Owens, Elias, Havliand

 

We might try a two for one trade to make room for Hembree, or we may just trade Ross or Hembree or create a phantom DL for someone.

 

 

Taylor has looked good so far. Don't trade him, we may need him in the BP throughout the season.

[Nick]

Taylor has looked good so far. Don't trade him, we may need him in the BP throughout the season.

 

He's under team control for 6 years. Why would we trade him?

[moonslav59]

Taylor has looked good so far. Don't trade him, we may need him in the BP throughout the season.

 

I never meant to imply trading Taylor. I'm thinking that if everyone is healthy and no phantom DL is used, we should try to trade Abad. I've been saying that for months.

 

Another idea would be to trade Ross & Abad or Ross & Hembree for one better RP'er. That makes room for Taylor, Scott, Workman or others and clears up the issue with RP'er without options keeping perhaps better RP'ers in AAA.

 

I realize the goal of keeping as much depth as possible, but when Smith and Thornburg return, we'll be squeezing some very good talent down to the minors.

 

Assuming one of ERod, Wright or Pom takes the mid-long relief role, that leaves 6 RP'ers for the 25 man roster:

 

1. Kimbrel

2. Thornburg

3. Smith

4. Kelly

5. Barnes

6. ???

 

Without options: Hembree & Abad

 

With options: Ross, Taylor, Scott, Workman, Ramirez, Johnson and others