A Realistic View at 2017 Part II

[Nick]

If Moreland can hit above .250 with some power, $5.5M seems well spent. We do need a 4th OF next year if Young is not re-signed. And it ain't Holt.

 

DH position requires no more than a $10M contract in my view. Plenty of guys with good bat and past prime defensively. The key is not to get locked into long term contract at DH.

[moonslav59]

Why is optimist a bad word? It's not to me.

 

It's not. I consider my self an optimist, so I'm a bit surprised to be called a "whiner" who is trying to dim other posters' optimism.

[mvp 78]

I didn't mean to squash people dreams, but I have yet to hear anyone explain how we're going to do it based on the new system and DD's track record with low draft choices, building a pen, and signing big ticket FAs. Something is going to have to change for it to work.

 

1. It's how this team was built in the first place.

 

2. DD isn't the chump you make him out to be. For the Tigers, he drafted Verlander, Maybin, Andrew Miller, Porcello (27th pick), Castellanos. His history of trades is very good http://www.baseball-reference.com/bullpen/Dave_Dombrowski.

[mvp 78]

It doesn't interest you that the same posters who are praising his moves now and the "win now" philosophy will later bash him for having the same philosophy they agreed with earlier?

 

You've posted on here for only 12 months. How could you possibly know this? Honestly, it's opinions like these that starts a lot of nonsense on here.

[mvp 78]

I never said we "can't ever" build up the farm again. It can be built up much easier after some losing seasons and higher draft picks.

 

My point is, it is going to be very hard to rebuild the farm from now until about 2021 to even close to what it has been due to international signing and budget rule changes and projected loser draft picks.

 

It's not impossible, but it nearly is.

 

Can we build the farm to a point where we are able to stay competitive, even without 3-5 top ML prospects? Maybe- maybe not.

 

Will we have a roster after 2021 that includes very low cost studs like Betts, Bogey, JBJ and ERod? I doubt we approach 4 like these, but maybe 1 or 2 will be all we need, if we can start significantly improving our FA signings. We're likely not going to have the prospects like the package we sent to Chicago for Sale again for the foreseeable future.

 

They don't need to have high draft picks to build up a farm system. Ben and Theo were able to without many high draft picks. Why can't DD? It's still a lot of the same scouts, right?

[Nick]

Not to be greedy but it sure would be nice to keep all three of our catchers.

 

Not sure about our lefties but from the right side

 

Kimbrel, Kelly, Barnes, Hembree, Smith, Thornburg and Taylor can become a pretty good group out of the pen this year.

Edited April 12, 2017 by Nick

[moonslav59]

Why? It's how they built the organization before. Thinking that dropping down 10+ picks is going to kill the franchise is kinda ridiculous.

 

I've been clear about the rules restricting international FA signings as being the major change in our immediate rebuilding the farm efforts. Look at who we have gotten in recent years this way: Bogey, Moncada, Espi, Margot, Devers and both Basabes. This is going to be almost impossible to replicate.

 

On draft picks, certainly higher is better and the comp pick rules have lessened that impact on teams getting picks due to losing good players to free agency. That was a major factor in our farm building under Theo:

 

Top 15 draft picks:

12 Groome

7 Beni

7 T Ball

 

16-32 draft picks:

26 Chavis

24 Marrero

31 B Johnson

19 Barnes

26 Swihart

20 Vitek

28 Fuentes

30 Kelly

27 J Place

28 D Bard

 

These are all of our top 32 picks since 2006.

 

It's harder to get comp picks than it was earlier, and the picks are in the sandwich supplemental rounds not like before.

 

It's harder to sign multiple great international players.

 

It's harder to draft outside the top 10 or 15.

 

 

We've made some great picks after the first round, so it's not impossible, but all I'm saying is that things have changed a lot since the "good ole days" when we could just sign almost any international FAs we wanted, draft better players later in the draft due to signability issues with poorer teams drafting ahead of us, and new budget restraints and penalties.

[moonslav59]

You've posted on here for only 12 months. How could you possibly know this? Honestly, it's opinions like these that starts a lot of nonsense on here.

 

"Posters" to me includes the site I was on before. My apologies for offending this site.

 

I'm sure none of the same thing happened here.

[moonslav59]

They don't need to have high draft picks to build up a farm system. Ben and Theo were able to without many high draft picks. Why can't DD? It's still a lot of the same scouts, right?

 

Again, they did a lot of it with stacked comp picks, massive international signings and no restrictions on how much we could pay draft picks.

 

You may think those are minor obstacles: I do not.

[moonslav59]

Not to be greedy but it sure would be nice to keep all three of our catchers.

 

Not sure about our lefties but from the right side

 

Kimbrel, Kelly, Barnes, Hembree, Smith, Thornburg and Taylor can become a pretty good group out of the pen this year.

 

Thornburg is better vs LHBs than almost any LOOGY... 531 (LHBS) vs .732 career (RHBs)

[Nick]

"As has been well-chronicled by now, Pomeranz was dealing with left forearm fatigue by the time he was traded. To his credit, he never missed a start down the stretch last season and never made excuses for the results (3-5, 4.59 ERA) after the trade."

 

"He had some different quadrants," Orioles manager Buck Showalter said. "High fastball, a little cutter, spun the ball when he needed to, changed planes. Things that have made him successful and why they wanted him."

Maybe we need to cut him some slack.

Edited April 12, 2017 by Nick

[moonslav59]

"As has been well-chronicled by now, Pomeranz was dealing with left forearm fatigue by the time he was traded. To his credit, he never missed a start down the stretch last season and never made excuses for the results (3-5, 4.59 ERA) after the trade."

 

"He had some different quadrants," Orioles manager Buck Showalter said. "High fastball, a little cutter, spun the ball when he needed to, changed planes. Things that have made him successful and why they wanted him."

 

Maybe we need to cut him some slack.

 

Agreed, and while a half season of pitching great for the Padres can be viewed as a fluke, it can also be a strong sign of what he can do again... this time for us.

[oldtimer]

Changing the subject, our catching situation, which looked iffy on opening day has been very solid. I hope the hitting continues. It bot h Leon and Vazquez can hold their own over a longer period, this team becomes even more formidable.

[Nick]

Josh Ockimey went 4-for-5 with a double in High-A Salem's 11-5 victory over Lynchburg on Tuesday.

 

Ockimey -- a 21-year-old power-hitting prospect who the Red Sox drafted in the fifth round in 2014 -- is 12-for-23 (.522 batting average) with a .571 on-base percentage, .783 slugging percentage, 1.354 OPS, one homer, one triple, one double and six RBIs in six games so far for Salem.

 

#10 prospect for Red Sox

[Nick]

Travis Lakins has 17 strikeouts, 1 walk

 

Travis Lakins, a 22-year-old righty, has the potential to develop into one of the Red Sox's top pitching prospects this season. He has that type of potential.

 

 

He dominated again Tuesday for Salem, earning the victory vs. Lynchburg.

 

Lakins went 6 innings and allowed two runs, but just one earned run, five hits and one walk while striking out eight.

 

He has a 0.79 ERA (11 1/3 IP, 1 ER), 0.88 WHIP, 17 strikeouts and one walk in two starts.

 

#12 Prospect for Red Sox, 2015 pick out of Ohio State

[Nick]

Shaun Anderson dominates for Greenville

 

Shaun Anderson -- a 22-year-old righty who the Red Sox drafted in the third round in 2016 out of Florida -- hurled 6 scoreless innings to earn the victory in Low-A Greenville's 4-3 win over Lexington.

 

Anderson is another Red Sox pitching prospect to keep an eye on. He has allowed just one run in 10 2/3 innings and has struck out 13 while walking two.

 

#19 Prospect for Red Sox, 2016 pick out of Florida.

[mvp 78]

http://www.talksox.com/forum/forums/17-Red-Sox-Minor-Leagues

 

My dudes, we have a Minor League forum for this stuff to go in. If they aren't going to be on the roster in 2017, general comments about prospects should go there.

 

1. It will generate more meaningful discussion as it won't get buried by MLB stuff

2. It's less clutter for the MLB board

[Nick]

http://www.talksox.com/forum/forums/17-Red-Sox-Minor-Leagues

 

My dudes, we have a Minor League forum for this stuff to go in. If they aren't going to be on the roster in 2017, general comments about prospects should go there.

 

1. It will generate more meaningful discussion as it won't get buried by MLB stuff

2. It's less clutter for the MLB board

 

I just threw some curve balls to alter the conversation........I'm tired of looking back constantly at trades.

 

We signed Price. We traded for Kimbrel and Pomeranz. We gave up a lot to get an elite pitcher in Sale. Done deal. Can't go back. Let the future dictate whether it was good deal or not.

 

I won't post the minor league stuff again.

[moonslav59]

Changing the subject, our catching situation, which looked iffy on opening day has been very solid. I hope the hitting continues. It bot h Leon and Vazquez can hold their own over a longer period, this team becomes even more formidable.

 

It wasn't that "iffy" to some of us.

 

What a great start for "the fat catcher" and the one that can't hit.

[moonslav59]

http://www.talksox.com/forum/forums/17-Red-Sox-Minor-Leagues

 

My dudes, we have a Minor League forum for this stuff to go in. If they aren't going to be on the roster in 2017, general comments about prospects should go there.

 

1. It will generate more meaningful discussion as it won't get buried by MLB stuff

2. It's less clutter for the MLB board

 

I guess, if a prospect is close to being called up to the big club, then talking about them in that context is ok for this forum, right?

[Bellhorn04]

"Posters" to me includes the site I was on before. My apologies for offending this site.

 

I'm sure none of the same thing happened here.

 

Lumping other posters into one big homogenous group is never a good idea in my opinion. We're all different to some extent.

[moonslav59]

Lumping other posters into one big homogenous group is never a good idea in my opinion. We're all different to some extent.

 

True. I'll try to avoid that sort of talk going forward.

[Slasher9]

THIS is our #8 prospect?? Holy crap is our system barren now. I mean if we win a WS or 2 in the next 3 years it would be well worth it, but if not, UGH!!

DD. there is no farm system when DD is the GM. this is FACT.

[mvp 78]

I guess, if a prospect is close to being called up to the big club, then talking about them in that context is ok for this forum, right?

 

Yes, that would be fine.

 

I'm not trying to tell off anyone. Just suggesting that there are better spots for certain conversations. I'm not sure Shaun Anderson talk would generate much traction in this thread.

[S5Dewey]

Yes, that would be fine.

 

I'm not trying to tell off anyone. Just suggesting that there are better spots for certain conversations. I'm not sure Shaun Anderson talk would generate much traction in this thread.

 

I agree that Anderson, Ockimey and Lakins might now be hot topics for us at the moment but it does demonstrate that we have players in the minors who are 3-4 years away to fill spots starting in the early 2100's.

 

I'm not the least bit concerned that we don't have ML-ready players in Pawtucket at this moment because... where would we play them?? This team is essentially set for the next 2-3 years, after which there may be another crop of minor leaguers knocking down the door. No, they may not be Benintendi or Bogarts but it's not outside the realm of possibility that we w'll be able to extend some of our youth.

 

I'm willing to enjoy this ride now and not worry about who's going to be able to fill spots in 2021 and beyond until at least 2019. Some prospects have a way of coming around. Others have a way of falling by the wayside. Let's see what our minor league system looks like in two years before we either start our happy dance or looking like Eeyore.

 

Things are seldom as bad as you fear nor as good as you hope they'll be.

[moonslav59]

I agree that Anderson, Ockimey and Lakins might now be hot topics for us at the moment but it does demonstrate that we have players in the minors who are 3-4 years away to fill spots starting in the early 2100's....

 

You mean early 2020's, right?

[moonslav59]

I'm not the least bit concerned that we don't have ML-ready players in Pawtucket at this moment because... where would we play them??

 

It's nice to know they are there, in case of injury, and knowing that Moreland and Young are FAs after this year.

 

(I'm pretty sure Travis has an inside track to Moreland's slot.)

 

(Maybe Hernandez or Devers will oust Pablo, Rutledge and-or Holt out of town.)

[S5Dewey]

I agree that Anderson, Ockimey and Lakins might now be hot topics for us at the moment but it does demonstrate that we have players in the minors who are 3-4 years away to fill spots starting in the early 2100's....

 

You mean early 2020's, right?

 

LOL Yes.. thanks! All those zero's confused me.

[oldtimer]

It wasn't that "iffy" to some of us.

 

What a great start for "the fat catcher" and the one that can't hit.

 

Maybe not iffy to you, but coming in at around 235 does put stress on a body and it is a long season. I hope he can continue to do well and that Vazquez also can hit. The season has just begun and what occurs in the first few games is encouraging but not definitive.

[Kimmi]

You are right and I am guessing that it isn't just New England thing though. The gloom and doomers can be overwhelming. There is 0 happening to not be excited about. Today as well as tomorrow. The current ownership has and continues to show that they are willing to use all ways to build and sustain a healthy franchise. No one is operating on a win now at all costs philosophy. The farm has been dented but not at the expense of our future. On going on record here once again - Although I absolutely agree with the deal that brought us Chris Sale, the only prospect that I think we are going to someday really want back = Moncada.

 

First off, I am far from a Doom and Gloomer. I am allowed to have concerns about the future of our team.

 

Secondly, our FO is most certainly operating at a win now at all costs philosophy at the expense of our future. They went overboard. We already had a contender without needing to going over the top.

 

All that said, I am withholding final judgment on Dombrowski's reign until all is said and done. However, I listened to criticism and negativity about Ben and Theo for years. I am darn well going to voice my displeasure with Dombrowski's farm gutting.