A Realistic View at 2017 Part II

[Fisk]

The Red Sox traded shortstop Nomar Garciaparra in the middle of a season that culminated with a World Series title. Garciaparra, of course, was a 31-year-old posting a .321/.367/.500/.867 line at the time of the trade.[/QUOT

Garciaparra at the time of the trade was saying he was going to need numerous days off because of his injury, and his fielding at that point was really bad.

[cp176]

2.5 year age gap and the possibility JBJ is the 3rd best CF in their current outfield (and I like Bradley!) make me value Bogaerts significantly more.

 

??? - You think JBJ is behind Benintendi and Betts in center?

[Emp9]

My rank:

Offense: #1 Betts, #2 Beni, #3 Bradley

Defense: #1 Bradley, #2 Betts, #3 Beni

[Bellhorn04]

??? - You think JBJ is behind Benintendi and Betts in center?

 

I think he means total package offense + defense.

[Bellhorn04]

My rank:

Offense: #1 Betts, #2 Beni, #3 Bradley

Defense: #1 Bradley, #2 Betts, #3 Beni

 

I see no controversy there.

[S5Dewey]

??? - You think JBJ is behind Benintendi and Betts in center?

 

It's all part of the hype that Bogaerts has always gotten in Boston. In 2016 JBJ had an OPS of .835 and Bogaerts was .802. And for you WAR fans in 2016 JBJ's was was 5.3 (!) and Bogaert's was 3.7.

 

We currently have three outfielders who are arguably among the three best in baseball at their positions. That doesn't mean that any one of them is dog meat!

Edited April 19, 2017 by S5Dewey

[Bellhorn04]

Small sample size fun in the early going...Moreland and Mookie both got off to what seemed like awful starts, now one's hitting .358 and the other .356.

[Bellhorn04]

It's all part of the hype that Bogaerts has always gotten in Boston. In 2016 JBJ had an OPS of .835 and Bogaerts was .802. And for you WAR fans in 2016 JBJ's was was 5.6 (!) and Bogaert's was 3.7.

 

We currently have three outfielders who are arguably among the three best in baseball at their positions. That doesn't mean that any one of them is dog meat!

 

What does Bogaerts have to do with the comment about the outfielders though?

[Bellhorn04]

I'm going to hate like hell to see JBJ traded too. But economically it probably has to be done. Hopefully they get a starting pitcher back...

[S5Dewey]

It's all part of the hype that Bogaerts has always gotten in Boston. In 2016 JBJ had an OPS of .835 and Bogaerts was .802. And for you WAR fans in 2016 JBJ's was was 5.3 (!) and Bogaert's was 3.7.

 

We currently have three outfielders who are arguably among the three best in baseball at their positions. That doesn't mean that any one of them is dog meat!

 

And that raises another WAR issue with me. Wouldn't one think that a player's WAR would be the total of his oWAR + his dWAR? If so then how does this make sense?

oWAR dWAR WAR

XBo 4.6 -0.2 3.7

JBJ 4.1 1.6 5.3

[S5Dewey]

What does Bogaerts have to do with the comment about the outfielders though?

 

Nothing, and everything to do with which one of them should be considered the more expendable. Especially if Bogaerts is going to be more expensive to keep.

[Bellhorn04]

And that raises another WAR issue with me. Wouldn't one think that a player's WAR would be the total of his oWAR + his dWAR? If so then how does this make sense?

oWAR dWAR WAR

XBo 4.6 -0.2 3.7

JBJ 4.1 1.6 5.3

 

There are some other little tweaks.

Edited April 19, 2017 by Bellhorn04

[Bellhorn04]

Nothing, and everything to do with which one of them should be considered the more expendable. Especially if Bogaerts is going to be more expensive to keep.

 

It's about positional needs too, though.

 

There's a strong possibility they won't be able to keep Bogaerts either.

[User Name]

Good shortstops are way harder to come by than good OF's, especially when you already have other options at said OF position and no viable replacement at SS.

[S5Dewey]

There are some other little tweaks.

 

Translation: Darned if I know, but there must be something!

 

This simply points out one of the reasons for my lack of confidence in WAR. If a player's oWAR + his dWAR doesn't equal his toal WAR what else is there? "Clubhouse influence"? Or... the player's ability to be "clutch"?

[S5Dewey]

Good shortstops are way harder to come by than good OF's, especially when you already have other options at said OF position and no viable replacement at SS.

 

Good - yes,

Outstanding - probably not.

 

Bogaerts is a very good SS. JBJ is an outstanding OF'er.

 

This team isn't particularly deep (yet) at either SS or OF'er so it may not be unreasonable to say that we're going to be downgrading the team significantly if we lose either of them.

[User Name]

There's a positional adjustment value added to the WAR formula.

 

C: +9 runs

SS: +7 runs

2B: +3 runs

CF: +2.5 runs

3B: +2 runs

RF: -7 runs

LF: -7 runs

1B: -9.5 runs

DH: -15 runs

 

Not even 30 seconds of googling.

[User Name]

Good - yes,

Outstanding - probably not.

 

Bogaerts is a very good SS. JBJ is an outstanding OF'er.

 

This team isn't particularly deep (yet) at either SS or OF'er so it may not be unreasonable to say that we're going to be downgrading the team significantly if we lose either of them.

 

I don't buy it. Bogaerts is much younger, and we don't truly know his offensive or defensive ceiling yet. But don't worry, by the time the need to make a decision arises, we will have a better idea of the performance standard of both players.

[cp176]

I think he means total package offense + defense.

 

thanks - makes a little more sense

[cp176]

I'm going to hate like hell to see JBJ traded too. But economically it probably has to be done. Hopefully they get a starting pitcher back...

 

You know me when it comes to the budget stuff and the Red Sox. If when the time comes, these two guys are who they want, I think that they sign both.

[cp176]

I don't buy it. Bogaerts is much younger, and we don't truly know his offensive or defensive ceiling yet. But don't worry, by the time the need to make a decision arises, we will have a better idea of the performance standard of both players.

 

I think correcto when it comes to Bogaerts for sure both offensively and defensively. Not someone we will want to lose. I'm still hoping that we don't really know what JBJ's offensive ceiling is just yet.

[Bellhorn04]

You know me when it comes to the budget stuff and the Red Sox. If when the time comes, these two guys are who they want, I think that they sign both.

 

The problem is that in today's market the 4 B's are all potential 20 to 30 million dollar a year guys when they hit free agency. That's 100 million a year to sign them all. That's half of your budget without even getting started on a pitching staff.

[S5Dewey]

There's a positional adjustment value added to the WAR formula.

 

C: +9 runs

SS: +7 runs

2B: +3 runs

CF: +2.5 runs

3B: +2 runs

RF: -7 runs

LF: -7 runs

1B: -9.5 runs

DH: -15 runs

 

Not even 30 seconds of googling.

 

Nope, not buying that. If that were true then (oWAR0 + (dWAR) + (Positional Adjustment) = WAR, and that doesn't work either.

 

And BTW, if that were true then Mookie Betts would have a whopping WAR of 16.5 prior to the positional adjustment that's just because he plays right field. Now, I like Mookie but I seriously question whether his statistics are worth 16 1/2 wins/year.

 

 

 

Not even 10 seconds of common sense and basic math skills.

[sk7326]

??? - You think JBJ is behind Benintendi and Betts in center?

 

no - total package. That said, if Betts played CF full time, he'd be at least as good. He is a Top 10 player already overall - and in both his amateur and pro careers has shown to be the sort of athlete we all knew growing up, who could be good at anything you threw at him.

[sk7326]

Good - yes,

Outstanding - probably not.

 

Bogaerts is a very good SS. JBJ is an outstanding OF'er.

 

This team isn't particularly deep (yet) at either SS or OF'er so it may not be unreasonable to say that we're going to be downgrading the team significantly if we lose either of them.

 

You lose Bradley you are replacing him with Betts, and Betts via some other means. While losing Bradley would stink - it is not at all certain whether the replacement would be significantly worse.

[cp176]

no - total package. That said, if Betts played CF full time, he'd be at least as good. He is a Top 10 player already overall - and in both his amateur and pro careers has shown to be the sort of athlete we all knew growing up, who could be good at anything you threw at him.

 

total package i agree. Not to sure I buy that Mookie would be his equal in center though. Maybe, maybe not but there would likely not be much of a let down. They are wonderful to watch together for the time being.

[sk7326]

total package i agree. Not to sure I buy that Mookie would be his equal in center though. Maybe, maybe not but there would likely not be much of a let down. They are wonderful to watch together for the time being.

 

not in throwing arm for sure - although that is a luxury to have in CF. Range is far and away the most important priority and Betts can do that. The quick leap he made to an elite defensive RF (in a RF often as cavernous as most CFs) is noteworthy.

[Spudboy]

My rank:

Offense: #1 Betts, #2 Beni, #3 Bradley

Defense: #1 Bradley, #2 Betts, #3 Beni

 

That is how I grade them as well.

[Spudboy]

not in throwing arm for sure - although that is a luxury to have in CF. Range is far and away the most important priority and Betts can do that. The quick leap he made to an elite defensive RF (in a RF often as cavernous as most CFs) is noteworthy.

 

Does that range include seeing that ball come off the bat well and taking a good path to the ball or are you saying just speed?

 

No way in hell does Marcus have the ability to read balls off the bat as well as Bradley.

 

Not from what I have seen.

[S5Dewey]

Does that range include seeing that ball come off the bat well and taking a good path to the ball or are you saying just speed?

 

No way in hell does Marcus have the ability to read balls off the bat as well as Bradley.

 

Not from what I have seen.

 

I don't ever remember seeing a player who has the ability to see the ball coming off the bat, take his eyes off the ball and run to 'the spot', and then turn and find the ball again and make the catch like JBJ can. Not even Mookie.