A Realistic View at 2017 Part II

[Kimmi]

A little love for what Vazquez got done last night too. How many teams out there wish they had one of what we have 2 of? this could turn into one of the great job-shares in franchise history.

 

He got 4 hits, each of which had an exit velocity under 90. LOL That's a record of some sort.

 

Perhaps he can be Pomeranz' personal caddy and lead him to the Promised Land.

[moonslav59]

First off, I am far from a Doom and Gloomer. I am allowed to have concerns about the future of our team.

 

Secondly, our FO is most certainly operating at a win now at all costs philosophy at the expense of our future. They went overboard. We already had a contender without needing to going over the top.

 

All that said, I am withholding final judgment on Dombrowski's reign until all is said and done. However, I listened to criticism and negativity about Ben and Theo for years. I am darn well going to voice my displeasure with Dombrowski's farm gutting.

 

maybe not 100% "win now" as we still have Groome, Devers, Travis and Swihart, but I agree we went a little to far. Maybe you think a lot too far, but I don't think we are far apart.

[Kimmi]

maybe not 100% "win now" as we still have Groome, Devers, Travis and Swihart, but I agree we went a little to far. Maybe you think a lot too far, but I don't think we are far apart.

 

I think you and I are mostly on the same page here.

 

Whiners Unite!!!

[Kimmi]

I read earlier today that our BP had the best BA against and the best SLG against. Matt Barnes has really stepped it up so far, in a very, very, small sample. Maybe our pen won't be the weakness that some think it will be.

[Wade Boggs]

I think you and I are mostly on the same page here.

 

Whiners Unite!!!

 

The only prospects that will be missed IMO. I'm talking maybe great players would be Moncada and Margot. The rest I can get by with. I order a prospect freeze. But when 7/31 comes DD will get the urge for trade. I know, am the old Monday morning QB. LOL

[Fisk]

I read earlier today that our BP had the best BA against and the best SLG against. Matt Barnes has really stepped it up so far, in a very, very, small sample. Maybe our pen won't be the weakness that some think it will be.

 

We have also pitched the least amount of bullpen innings, which helps. But besides Friday's game against the Tigers it has been good.

[Nick]

Moon has a very good point about building the starting rotation from the top and not the bottom.

 

Acquisition of Sale has accomplished that task. There's no doubt that in Sale, Porcello and Price, we have three formidable starting pitchers at least on paper. Sox will have the luxury of selecting the 'best' fourth starter from Pomeranz, E Rod and Wright come playoff time.

 

We've already discussed potential for our bullpen. I'm little concerned with our lefties but we have now several flame throwers in the pen.

 

Leon, Moreland, Pedy, Xander, Pablo, Beni, Bradley Jr, Betts and Hanley is good enough offensively to score many runs, even though we maybe short on power.

 

This is how you build a championship team.

 

We lose Young and Moreland for 2018 season.

We lose Kimbrel, Pom, Joe Kelly, Robbie Ross for 2019 season.

 

We have a three year window to chase the world series and reload the farm system.

 

Sale, Porcello, Xander, Hanley and Pablo comes off the books after 2019. Hanley and Pablo will yield $40M in savings.

 

We all know what type of talent it takes to win it all. There's always some luck involved. How often does a Betts seemingly come out of nowhere? I'm just thankful we have a competitive team at least for next three years.

Edited April 12, 2017 by Nick

[cp176]

First off, I am far from a Doom and Gloomer. I am allowed to have concerns about the future of our team.

 

Secondly, our FO is most certainly operating at a win now at all costs philosophy at the expense of our future. They went overboard. We already had a contender without needing to going over the top.

 

All that said, I am withholding final judgment on Dombrowski's reign until all is said and done. However, I listened to criticism and negativity about Ben and Theo for years. I am darn well going to voice my displeasure with Dombrowski's farm gutting.

 

I do disagree with you for sure on point number 2.

 

For the record, i do not consider you a whiner or a gloom and doomer. I also know that there won't be anything I say that is going to have much of an effect on what your thoughts or concerns are. I'm smarter than to think I can work that angle with you.lol

Once again, for the record, i don't really care who the GM is as long as they are moving us toward the common goal. my concern is directed toward the players.

I think Theo was great.

I don't think that Ben was as good as you think he was.

I like the aggressive moves that DD has made for the most part.

[cp176]

I think you and I are mostly on the same page here.

 

Whiners Unite!!!

 

"Whiners Unite" is a patented phrase!

[cp176]

He got 4 hits, each of which had an exit velocity under 90. LOL That's a record of some sort.

 

Perhaps he can be Pomeranz' personal caddy and lead him to the Promised Land.

 

I love the fact that we have two top of the line catchers. it is a long season and sharing that job without skipping a talent beat has to a good thing.

[Spudboy]

I love the fact that we have two top of the line catchers. it is a long season and sharing that job without skipping a talent beat has to a good thing.

 

It remains to be seen if that is what the Sox have. One 4/4 night does not mean that Vas has learned how to hit well enough to play a big chunk of the games. Yeah, his D and game calling may be very good but is that enough if he is a low ave low OBP guy?

 

Leon may be closer to a complete package than anyone saw before he was acquired. We don't know that yet, either.

 

Who knows if they will not skip a beat.

[cp176]

It remains to be seen if that is what the Sox have. One 4/4 night does not mean that Vas has learned how to hit well enough to play a big chunk of the games. Yeah, his D and game calling may be very good but is that enough if he is a low ave low OBP guy?

 

Leon may be closer to a complete package than anyone saw before he was acquired. We don't know that yet, either.

 

Who knows if they will not skip a beat.

 

Hey - just a phrase I threw out. They might skip a lot of beats. But I will to continue to stay upbeat. If what i said made anyone think that I don't think that we still might have some issues with respect to who our catcher is going forward, then maybe I could use a beating.

[moonslav59]

Moon has a very good point about building the starting rotation from the top and not the bottom. Acquisition of Sale has accomplished that task. There's no doubt that in Sale, Porcello and Price, we have three formidable starting pitchers at least on paper. Sox will have the luxury of selecting the 'best' fourth starter from Pomeranz, E Rod and Wright come playoff time.

 

That's exactly it. While we "only" added one starter, Sale made Porcello & Price our 2-3 starters. ERod is now our 4th starter. Pom and Wright are our 5-6 not our 4-5.

 

Trading for a 3/4 like Pom is better than trying to upgrade your 4/5 starter. Here's the luck we've had going that route:

Masterson

Peavy

Dempster

Mortenson

Aaron Cook

Franklin Morales

Erik Bedard

Brad Penny

John Smoltz

Paul Byrd

Bartolo Colon

Julian Tavarez

Matt Clement (not really a 4/5 type)

Jason Johnson

Wade Miller

Bruce Chen

 

[moonslav59]

We've already discussed potential for our bullpen. I'm little concerned with our lefties but we have now several flame throwers in the pen.

 

No need to be concerned about having a top lefty. Thornburg is better vs LHBs than just about any lefty in MLB.

 

 

 

Leon, Moreland, Pedy, Xander, Pablo, Beni, Bradley Jr, Betts and Hanley is good enough offensively to score many runs, even though we maybe short on power.

 

This is how you build a championship team.

 

We lose Young and Moreland for 2018 season.

 

We're light on OF replacements within our system, but my guess is replace these two with Travis and one from Swihart, Hernandez or Devers.

 

 

We lose Kimbrel, Pom, Joe Kelly, Robbie Ross for 2019 season.

 

We'll probably have to sign a couple FAs and hope our younger pitchers step up. Maybe Groome can be a significant piece.

 

 

We have a three year window to chase the world series and reload the farm system.

 

Sale, Porcello, Xander, Hanley and Pablo comes off the books after 2019. Hanley and Pablo will yield $40M in savings.

 

By replacing Hanley & Pablo (Moreland & Young) with Travis, Devers, Swihart & Hernandez, we might have enough money to pay all the big arb raises AND keep Sale and maybe one from Bogey and Porcello. Maybe sign someone else, if they want too much.

 

I think it's a solid 4 year window...maybe 5.

 

 

We all know what type of talent it takes to win it all. There's always some luck involved. How often does a Betts seemingly come out of nowhere? I'm just thankful we have a competitive team at least for next three years.

 

We may need another Betts by year 4 or 5.

[moonslav59]

Good to see some of our bats beginning to "awaken", but too bad Wright had a meltdown.

 

Taylor's performance was promising.

[Benintendi]

We're light on OF replacements within our system, but my guess is replace these two with Travis and one from Swihart, Hernandez or Devers.

 

Provided they are good enough to replace them with.

 

 

We'll probably have to sign a couple FAs and hope our younger pitchers step up. Maybe Groome can be a significant piece.

 

The track record for signing FA relievers is not good. And hope our pitchers step up? Words like hope & maybe give me heartburn.

 

 

By replacing Hanley & Pablo (Moreland & Young) with Travis, Devers, Swihart & Hernandez, we might have enough money to pay all the big arb raises AND keep Sale and maybe one from Bogey and Porcello. Maybe sign someone else, if they want too much.

 

Theres that word yet again. Maybe, and now a new one. Might. I fully realize neither you nor I know what is in the Red Sox future, but there has to be several plans. In case the scenario you presented doesn't or can't be worked out, what then?

 

 

We may need another Betts by year 4 or 5.[/b]

 

Again, provided that there is a Betts to get in year 4 or 5.

 

I realize you can't read minds or tell the future. And I know what you're saying here, I'm not just trying to be confrontational. ( Sister Jean Marie would be so proud of me using that word in a sentence) All I'm saying is that "stuff happens". And nobody, including DD, has any clue what the future brings. And I know there were no guarantees that all the pieces we traded ever amount to anything. But we had options & we have very few now. DD has put all our eggs in the "now" basket. Leaving very little or nothing in the "then" basket. That's the only point I'm trying to make.

[moonslav59]

Provided they are good enough to replace them with.

 

 

 

 

The track record for signing FA relievers is not good. And hope our pitchers step up? Words like hope & maybe give me heartburn.

 

 

 

 

Theres that word yet again. Maybe, and now a new one. Might. I fully realize neither you nor I know what is in the Red Sox future, but there has to be several plans. In case the scenario you presented doesn't or can't be worked out, what then?

 

 

 

 

Again, provided that there is a Betts to get in year 4 or 5.

 

I realize you can't read minds or tell the future. And I know what you're saying here, I'm not just trying to be confrontational. ( Sister Jean Marie would be so proud of me using that word in a sentence) All I'm saying is that "stuff happens". And nobody, including DD, has any clue what the future brings. And I know there were no guarantees that all the pieces we traded ever amount to anything. But we had options & we have very few now. DD has put all our eggs in the "now" basket. Leaving very little or nothing in the "then" basket. That's the only point I'm trying to make.

 

Your points are very well taken. I too wish we had more than just 3 good prospects to pin our hopes on.

 

We might be lucky, if two of them give us plus production down the road.

 

One thing going for us is that we don't need great production to replace Pablo at 3B with Devers or Moreland at 1B with Travis.

 

Replacing HanRam and Pomeranz will be tougher. I'm not sure we can even hope Groome will be ready AND as good as Pom year one (2019). We may need a healthy other 5 starters or someone to come out of nowhere to take his place (Elias, Owens, Johnson, Barnes?). I think the salary space we lose by our departing players will be almost totally eaten up by arb raises and extensions.

[Nick]

Your points are very well taken. I too wish we had more than just 3 good prospects to pin our hopes on.

 

We might be lucky, if two of them give us plus production down the road.

 

One thing going for us is that we don't need great production to replace Pablo at 3B with Devers or Moreland at 1B with Travis.

 

Replacing HanRam and Pomeranz will be tougher. I'm not sure we can even hope Groome will be ready AND as good as Pom year one (2019). We may need a healthy other 5 starters or someone to come out of nowhere to take his place (Elias, Owens, Johnson, Barnes?). I think the salary space we lose by our departing players will be almost totally eaten up by arb raises and extensions.

 

At some point, we'll have to go over the limit. The new barrier is +$20M over the limit to avoid the surtax. This is why it was critical for us to do a reset.

Edited April 13, 2017 by Nick

[Kimmi]

We have also pitched the least amount of bullpen innings, which helps. But besides Friday's game against the Tigers it has been good.

 

Agreed. One reason that I was not as concerned about the BP as some were is the ability of our starters to pitch deep into games, even more so once Price returns. Of course, we can have those outings like Wright had last night.

[Kimmi]

Moon has a very good point about building the starting rotation from the top and not the bottom.

 

Acquisition of Sale has accomplished that task. There's no doubt that in Sale, Porcello and Price, we have three formidable starting pitchers at least on paper. Sox will have the luxury of selecting the 'best' fourth starter from Pomeranz, E Rod and Wright come playoff time.

 

We've already discussed potential for our bullpen. I'm little concerned with our lefties but we have now several flame throwers in the pen.

 

Leon, Moreland, Pedy, Xander, Pablo, Beni, Bradley Jr, Betts and Hanley is good enough offensively to score many runs, even though we maybe short on power.

 

This is how you build a championship team.

 

We lose Young and Moreland for 2018 season.

We lose Kimbrel, Pom, Joe Kelly, Robbie Ross for 2019 season.

 

We have a three year window to chase the world series and reload the farm system.

 

Sale, Porcello, Xander, Hanley and Pablo comes off the books after 2019. Hanley and Pablo will yield $40M in savings.

 

We all know what type of talent it takes to win it all. There's always some luck involved. How often does a Betts seemingly come out of nowhere? I'm just thankful we have a competitive team at least for next three years.

 

I have many times stated that our current team is a championship caliber team. We are very good, and should be for the next 3 years. The state of our short term is not the issue.

 

I love our team. I just think we could have a championship caliber team and still have a strong long term outlook.

[moonslav59]

At some point, we'll have to go over the limit. The new barrier is +$20M over the limit to avoid the surtax. This is why it was critical for us to do a reset.

 

It's +$20M to avoid penalties such as taking away draft picks or lessening amounts for draft signing pools.

 

Resetting the luxury tax will be a big deal, because it will lessen future tax percentages when we likely will have to go over possibly starting as soon as 2018.

 

The actual luxury tax still significantly increases each consecutive year a team goes over the limit.

[moonslav59]

Agreed. One reason that I was not as concerned about the BP as some were is the ability of our starters to pitch deep into games, even more so once Price returns. Of course, we can have those outings like Wright had last night.

 

The lack of a true "long man" was apparent last night. Once Price comes back, and Pom or Wright go to the pen, that problem will be solved.

 

Taylor did a great job giving us over 3 innings of good pitching. I hope he keeps producing like this.

[moonslav59]

I have many times stated that our current team is a championship caliber team. We are very good, and should be for the next 3 years. The state of our short term is not the issue.

 

I love our team. I just think we could have a championship caliber team and still have a strong long term outlook.

 

Agreed, but it is what it is. As much as both of us would like to go back and undo a trade or two (maybe three for you), we can't.

 

I hate to have to rely on multiple hopes and prayers for our long term outlook to improve, but I fear that's all we can do now.

 

We really are going to need Travis and Devers to be ready by the time we lose Moreland (2018), HanRam & Pablo (2020). Maybe a Dalbec or Hernandez can take a role, if Travis or Devers fail, but filling these 4 slots from within the system would go a long way towards freeing up salary space to keep our rising young stars, pay their arb raises, extend one or two of them AND maybe be able to keep Chris Sale. That's a lot to hope for from Travis, Devers, Hernandez & Dalbec, but it's not an absurd hope. What worries me is that we could have all those hopes come through, and we'll still have to let Bogey or Porcello go and maybe even one from Betts, JBJ or Sale go as well. Maybe not. Maybe we can stay below the $20M excess of luxury limit point where severe penalties kick-in, but it will not be easy.

 

Hoping Groome can first replace Pom and then replace Porcello's slot is too much for me to realistically think is possible. If he can do it, it's likely Devers or Travis will not, and finding great corner IF'ers via free agency is usually very costly.

[Nick]

Agreed, but it is what it is. As much as both of us would like to go back and undo a trade or two (maybe three for you), we can't.

 

I hate to have to rely on multiple hopes and prayers for our long term outlook to improve, but I fear that's all we can do now.

 

We really are going to need Travis and Devers to be ready by the time we lose Moreland (2018), HanRam & Pablo (2020). Maybe a Dalbec or Hernandez can take a role, if Travis or Devers fail, but filling these 4 slots from within the system would go a long way towards freeing up salary space to keep our rising young stars, pay their arb raises, extend one or two of them AND maybe be able to keep Chris Sale. That's a lot to hope for from Travis, Devers, Hernandez & Dalbec, but it's not an absurd hope. What worries me is that we could have all those hopes come through, and we'll still have to let Bogey or Porcello go and maybe even one from Betts, JBJ or Sale go as well. Maybe not. Maybe we can stay below the $20M excess of luxury limit point where severe penalties kick-in, but it will not be easy.

 

Hoping Groome can first replace Pom and then replace Porcello's slot is too much for me to realistically think is possible. If he can do it, it's likely Devers or Travis will not, and finding great corner IF'ers via free agency is usually very costly.

 

We'll have to take similar approach we did with Encarnacion/Moreland. We did not want to block Travis with a long term commit to Encarnacion (not to mention luxury tax implication). But one year, $5.5M to a gold glover seemed very reasonable to me.

[Nick]

I have many times stated that our current team is a championship caliber team. We are very good, and should be for the next 3 years. The state of our short term is not the issue.

 

I love our team. I just think we could have a championship caliber team and still have a strong long term outlook.

 

My real point was DD saw an opportunity to acquire Sale to enhance our ability to go for it the next 3 years. I just thought that was a bold move and I'm glad he did it.

[Bellhorn04]

My real point was DD saw an opportunity to acquire Sale to enhance our ability to go for it the next 3 years. I just thought that was a bold move and I'm glad he did it.

 

Kimmi thinks we didn't really need Sale. I think that remains to be seen.

[Benintendi]

Kimmi thinks we didn't really need Sale. I think that remains to be seen.

 

Did we "need" him, no. But any time you have the ability to grab a top-notch starting pitcher, you do it. Especially since it also keeps him away from your compettitors in the division. We won't be able to fully judge this trade for several years, at the earliest. We have to see:

A: What Sale does for us. Wins, WS appearances, etc. And of course, health. If he stays healthy and dominates and we win at least 1 WS. it's worth it.

B: What the prospects end up doing for Chicago. If Sale does nothing and the four end up being HOF performers, that would suck. but I seriously doubt that happens.

 

We simply have to wait and see. I personally think it ends up being a win for both organizations. We shall see.

[moonslav59]

My real point was DD saw an opportunity to acquire Sale to enhance our ability to go for it the next 3 years. I just thought that was a bold move and I'm glad he did it.

 

You just can't say no to an opportunity like this.

[Nick]

I'm not so sure if E Rod is learning anything from Sale. He's still very deliberate between pitches. Threw 31 pitches in 1st inning. Doesn't seem to challange the hitters enough. Still too many walks. 100+ pitches in 5 1/3 inning.

 

We won thanks to Hanley and our bullpen.

 

Waiting for Betts to heat up.

[moonslav59]

I'm not so sure if E Rod is learning anything from Sale. He's still very deliberate between pitches. Threw 31 pitches in 1st inning. Doesn't seem to challange the hitters enough. Still too many walks. 100+ pitches in 5 1/3 inning.

 

We won thanks to Hanley and our bullpen.

 

Waiting for Betts to heat up.

 

It was nice to see ERod settle down. 66 pitches in his last 4.1 IP was not bad. The last run allowed was unearned.

 

Big hits by Marco & Bogey, too.

 

Finally, some big walks taken helped as well.

 

Nice win!

Edited April 13, 2017 by moonslav59