A Realistic View at 2017 Part I

[cp176]

You are killing me with the data here. My hats off to you. You are a research guru. Of course you aren't changing my mind but I bet you already knew that. DD's decision to not listen to trade partners when they brought up Devers name tells me something.

 

I feel the same way. I think that Devers' big step up on defense this year sealed the Moncada deal. I love Devers. I wish we could have talked the CWS into taking Swihart, Hernandez & Owens instead of Kopech, but that's likely dreaming.

 

As much as I like Moncada, finding a place for him to fit would not have been that easy.

 

My biggest concern with Moncada has always been his defense and lack of a defined role in MLB other than hitting lights out.

 

Much not all but much of this top of the line talent that has been recently traded was blocked by legit ml talent. Having a backlog of talent isn't a bad thing of course but I think there are others ways to look at it in terms of value. My approach is somewhat simple - I get that and I'm ok with it. If I worried as much about tomorrow as some people seem to, honestly, I don't think that I would enjoy today nearly as much. It's kind of like having a ton of unused $ sitting around and not being used. You get to pat yourself on the back and say you are rich but in reality until it is being used it isn't doing you much good. Being prepared and saving for the future is a good thing but without a little risk taking along the way - yawn. I'll say again - although I have 0 data to support - as long as our current ownership remains in place, I absolutely believe this team will compete at a high level - 5, 10, or 15 years down the trail.

 

As you know, I have never been against trading top talent. I have suggested dozens of trades with Moncada, Swihart, Basabe and others in my packages. I wanted us to try hard, and I'm sure DD did, to keep Espi, Devers & Kopech. I realize most of our positions are locked up for 2-4 years, so trading away the near ML ready talent made sense. My concern is with the 4-7 year range, and that's where the three guys I listed as keepers would have come into their own. We traded two of the three. If we had to trade Kopech to get Sale, I get it. As I have said, I love the Sale deal. I do wish we had the Espi deal back, especially in light of the Sale deal and talk of using Pom in the pen now.

 

I think we will be competitive from 4 to 7 years out, but not "highly competitive, unless Henry changes his M.O. or we find the Rizzos and Betts in the lower picks a few times in the next draft or two. As I have shown before with out draft successes, they almost always involved years with multiple comp picks or top 15 draft choices. I'm not saying we can't draft better with lower picks than we have done in the past, but we will have to improve in this area, or we will have some trouble after year 4.

 

Here's another simplified way to look at it:

 

Our draft choices since 2005: (Only significant players listed)

 

Top 15:

12 Groome 16

7 Beni 15

7 T Ball 13

 

16-35:

26 Chavis. 33 Kopech 14

24 Marrero, 31 Johnson 12

28 R Fuentes 09

30 C Kelly 08

27 J Place 06

 

36+:

51 Chatham (118 Dalbec) 16

67 S Travis 14

37 P Light 12

172 Betts 11

77 Wilson 09

85 S Fife 08

6th Rd A Rizzo 07

2nd Rd Masterson 06

 

Comp Picks:

16-35:

19 Barnes, Swihart 11

20 Vitek 10

28 D Bard 06

23 Ellsbury, 26 Hansen 05

 

36+

36 Owens, 40 JBJ 11

36 Brentz, 39 Ranaudo, 57 Workman 10

42 Buchholz, 45 Lowrie, 47 Bowden 05

 

Look at our own picks from 16-35. There's not a single player that amounted to squat in the last 12 freakin drafts!!!! Kopech shows promise, but that's it! That is mind-boggling and scary as hell.

 

When you look at all the later picks combined over 12 years, I see Betts and Rizzo as the only 2 solid stars. That's 1 every 6 years! That's not too hopefull either.

 

The vast majority of our in-system studs have come from comp picks and international signings. Both of those areas have become much more difficult for us to do well in due to rule changes.

 

If we continue our pattern of acquiring young talent without top 15 picks or comp picks or $60M international players like Moncada, we're going to be suffering in 4 years and maybe much longer.

 

Take away our top 15 picks (Beni & Groome), our comp picks (JBJ, Swihart, Barnes, Ellsbury & Buchholz) and big ticket international signings (Moncada & maybe Devers & Espi) and where would we be (and have been)?

 

We wouldn't even have had the prospects to trade away.

 

Look, I'm not doom and gloom. I'm super psyched about this team and its future. I think we can and will remain competitive beyond 4 years, but it's going to take some major changes in the way we have been drafting players and signing international players. We can't continue going 12 years with just a Michael Kopech to show for all of our 16-35 draft picks.

 

So just out of curiosity, which teams do you think are doing a better job at drafting and securing players? It has been a long time since the Red Sox have been disastrously non-competetive.(don't want to hear about bobby Valentine's experience) Is it even remotely possible that a closer look at other franchises might show similar results when it comes to the identification and signing of talent? There don't seem to be any sure things. If I had to bet right now based on what we know - I would bet that in the end the career Pomeranz has will be better than Espinoza's. He has a good head start.

[moonslav59]

So just out of curiosity, which teams do you think are doing a better job at drafting and securing players? It has been a long time since the Red Sox have been disastrously non-competetive.(don't want to hear about bobby Valentine's experience) Is it even remotely possible that a closer look at other franchises might show similar results when it comes to the identification and signing of talent? There don't seem to be any sure things. If I had to bet right now based on what we know - I would bet that in the end the career Pomeranz has will be better than Espinoza's. He has a good head start.

 

I'm not talking disastrously bad. I just said "not highly competitive".

 

I don't pay much attention to other teams, but my guess is most teams picking 16-35 do better than we have in that range over the last 12 years.

 

(Non comp picks)

16-35:

26 Chavis. 33 Kopech 14

24 Marrero, 31 Johnson 12

28 R Fuentes 09

30 C Kelly 08

27 J Place 06

 

Comp Picks:

16-35:

19 Barnes, Swihart 11

20 Vitek 10

28 D Bard 06

23 Ellsbury, 26 Hansen 05

 

Take away 2005 and look at just the last 11 years, and all we have is Swihart, Kopech and Barnes. 3 out of 11 picks in that range.

 

Betts and Rizzo beyond that range.

 

[cp176]

I'm not talking disastrously bad. I just said "not highly competitive".

 

I don't pay much attention to other teams, but my guess is most teams picking 16-35 do better than we have in that range over the last 12 years.

 

(Non comp picks)

16-35:

26 Chavis. 33 Kopech 14

24 Marrero, 31 Johnson 12

28 R Fuentes 09

30 C Kelly 08

27 J Place 06

 

Comp Picks:

16-35:

19 Barnes, Swihart 11

20 Vitek 10

28 D Bard 06

23 Ellsbury, 26 Hansen 05

 

Take away 2005 and look at just the last 11 years, and all we have is Swihart, Kopech and Barnes. 3 out of 11 picks in that range.

 

Betts and Rizzo beyond that range.

 

 

This has been a good diiscussion. Since it is kind of a guess, mine would be that we have done a job that is better than some and poorer than others over the years. My guess would be that we will be very competetive with anyone going forward. The problems that we will be dealing with are probably same ones that other teams will deal with as well. I like our chances. Off to the golf course for me! Got to make some$!

[notin]

So just out of curiosity, which teams do you think are doing a better job at drafting and securing players? It has been a long time since the Red Sox have been disastrously non-competetive.(don't want to hear about bobby Valentine's experience) Is it even remotely possible that a closer look at other franchises might show similar results when it comes to the identification and signing of talent? There don't seem to be any sure things. If I had to bet right now based on what we know - I would bet that in the end the career Pomeranz has will be better than Espinoza's. He has a good head start.

 

Pomeranz has a good head start in that he is already in the majors, which Espiniza may never accomplish. A lot can happen, including simple lacking talent or getting injured.

 

But Pomeranz, a former top prospect himself, as not exactly pieced together a stellar career. Personally, I question his ability to even be a major leaguer starter. I think he is best used as a reliever...

[moonslav59]

But Pomeranz, a former top prospect himself, as not exactly pieced together a stellar career. Personally, I question his ability to even be a major leaguer starter. I think he is best used as a reliever...

 

To me, that makes the Espi trade look even worse.

[notin]

But Pomeranz, a former top prospect himself, as not exactly pieced together a stellar career. Personally, I question his ability to even be a major leaguer starter. I think he is best used as a reliever...

 

To me, that makes the Espi trade look even worse.

 

Well, if he turns into Andrew Miller, then maybe it becomes the equivalent of Miller/Rodriguez...

[moonslav59]

This has been a good diiscussion. Since it is kind of a guess, mine would be that we have done a job that is better than some and poorer than others over the years. My guess would be that we will be very competetive with anyone going forward. The problems that we will be dealing with are probably same ones that other teams will deal with as well. I like our chances. Off to the golf course for me! Got to make some$!

 

Well, since Swihart and Barnes were comp picks, something we likely won't be getting in the next two years, all we have to show for our 16th and below (non comp) draft picks over the last 11 years are Betts, Rizzo and Kopech.

 

There may be a few teams worse than that, but I doubt more than a handful.

 

My guess is the vast majority of teams do better than 1 out of 7 (Kopech and 6 flops) with their 16-35 picks and 2 out of hundreds (Rizzo & Betts) with their 36 and lower picks over the last 11 years.

[moonslav59]

Well, if he turns into Andrew Miller, then maybe it becomes the equivalent of Miller/Rodriguez...

 

He could. I really like Pom...maybe more than you, but I think I'm probably Espi's strongest supporter on this site.

[Dojji]

And you might be right -- but if you are, so much of Espinosa's development will have been handled by some other franchise that we had no way of knowing how he'd do here.

[moonslav59]

And you might be right -- but if you are, so much of Espinosa's development will have been handled by some other franchise that we had no way of knowing how he'd do here.

 

He might have done better here, but you're right.

 

I do think he'll be a great one.

 

I tried to do some research on 18 year olds that were ranked highly and how they turned out.

 

The only two I found were Todd Van Poppel and Dwight Gooden, but Gooden did jump from single A to the AAA playoffs at age 18- something Espi was not close to doing.

[sk7326]

He might have done better here, but you're right.

 

I do think he'll be a great one.

 

I tried to do some research on 18 year olds that were ranked highly and how they turned out.

 

The only two I found were Todd Van Poppel and Dwight Gooden, but Gooden did jump from single A to the AAA playoffs at age 18- something Espi was not close to doing.

 

I think that almost no pitcher could do that anymore - I mean you get the odd Urias maybe ... but the extreme caution with overworking guys, orgs I think will never feel guilty not pushing pitchers aggressively (at least among projected starters)

[moonslav59]

I think that almost no pitcher could do that anymore - I mean you get the odd Urias maybe ... but the extreme caution with overworking guys, orgs I think will never feel guilty not pushing pitchers aggressively (at least among projected starters)

 

Gooden pitched 191 innings at single A his first year! And, he had 300 Ks!

 

He then went 17-9 with a 2.60 ERA with the Mets at age 19 (218 IP/276Ks led the league).

 

He then lef the league in IP at age 20 (277) and K'd 268 for another K league lead. He went 24-4 with a 1.53 ERA, but after a nice 1986 season, he never put together a 200 IP and sub 3.15 ERA again. (He only had one more 200+ IP and sub 3.40 ERA afterwards.

[OH FOY]

Glad you didn't include Julio Urias, because he was 16 when he Pitched in Low A, which is where Espinoza is now, and turns 19 in March.

Urias had a 2.48 ERA too, that year.

Edited December 13, 2016 by OH FOY!

[OH FOY]

The next Dwight Gooden is possibly in Japan Shohei Otani.

Here's his stats.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.cgi?id=otani-000sho

[OH FOY]

Good article on him. Sox and Yanks have been scouting him for years.

 

http://climbingtalshill.com/2016/12/08/astros-could-the-astros-be-in-on-the-japanese-babe-ruth-shohei-otani/

[moonslav59]

Glad you didn't include Julio Urias, because he was 16 when he Pitched in Low A, which is where Espinoza is now, and turns 19 in March.

Urias had a 2.48 ERA too, that year.

 

I'm willing to include anyone and everyone who was 18 or younger and ranked top 15 in national rankings. If anyone can help me put to together a comprehensive list, I'd be thankful.

[cp176]

Pomeranz has a good head start in that he is already in the majors, which Espiniza may never accomplish. A lot can happen, including simple lacking talent or getting injured.

 

But Pomeranz, a former top prospect himself, as not exactly pieced together a stellar career. Personally, I question his ability to even be a major leaguer starter. I think he is best used as a reliever...

 

you clearly stated the point I was trying to make. Pomeranz is already here. I don't disagree with you about about his future status being a little up in the air though. What I would say is that he is still just 27. His best years could be right around the corner.

[Kimmi]

You are killing me with the data here. My hats off to you. You are a research guru. Of course you aren't changing my mind but I bet you already knew that. DD's decision to not listen to trade partners when they brought up Devers name tells me something. As much as I like Moncada, finding a place for him to fit would not have been that easy. Much not all but much of this top of the line talent that has been recently traded was blocked by legit ml talent. Having a backlog of talent isn't a bad thing of course but I think there are others ways to look at it in terms of value. My approach is somewhat simple - I get that and I'm ok with it. If I worried as much about tomorrow as some people seem to, honestly, I don't think that I would enjoy today nearly as much. It's kind of like having a ton of unused $ sitting around and not being used. You get to pat yourself on the back and say you are rich but in reality until it is being used it isn't doing you much good. Being prepared and saving for the future is a good thing but without a little risk taking along the way - yawn. I'll say again - although I have 0 data to support - as long as our current ownership remains in place, I absolutely believe this team will compete at a high level - 5, 10, or 15 years down the trail.

 

In regard to the Sale trade, it could be that Dombrowski was willing to listen about trading Devers, but just not in conjunction with Moncada and Kopech. I think that Moncada and Kopech were already decided upon, and Hahn asked for Devers as well, to which Dombrowski said no. That's my understanding based on what I've read. So, I don't think it was a matter of Devers being 'untouchable'.

 

I have heard that Swihart has become untouchable, though, along with JBJ.

 

And as far as being concerned about the future state of our team, that does not detract one bit from the ability to enjoy this year's team. It's not an either or situation.

[cp176]

In regard to the Sale trade, it could be that Dombrowski was willing to listen about trading Devers, but just not in conjunction with Moncada and Kopech. I think that Moncada and Kopech were already decided upon, and Hahn asked for Devers as well, to which Dombrowski said no. That's my understanding based on what I've read. So, I don't think it was a matter of Devers being 'untouchable'.

 

I have heard that Swihart has become untouchable, though, along with JBJ.

 

And as far as being concerned about the future state of our team, that does not detract one bit from the ability to enjoy this year's team. It's not an either or situation.

 

My understanding of this is that both Moncada and Devers weren't going. We need someone else to play third base for us at some point.

[moonslav59]

In regard to the Sale trade, it could be that Dombrowski was willing to listen about trading Devers, but just not in conjunction with Moncada and Kopech. I think that Moncada and Kopech were already decided upon, and Hahn asked for Devers as well, to which Dombrowski said no. That's my understanding based on what I've read. So, I don't think it was a matter of Devers being 'untouchable'.

 

I have heard that Swihart has become untouchable, though, along with JBJ.

 

And as far as being concerned about the future state of our team, that does not detract one bit from the ability to enjoy this year's team. It's not an either or situation.

 

You don't think DD would have subbed Swihart for Kopech?

[Eddy Ballgame]

In regard to the Sale trade, it could be that Dombrowski was willing to listen about trading Devers, but just not in conjunction with Moncada and Kopech. I think that Moncada and Kopech were already decided upon, and Hahn asked for Devers as well, to which Dombrowski said no. That's my understanding based on what I've read. So, I don't think it was a matter of Devers being 'untouchable'.

 

I have heard that Swihart has become untouchable, though, along with JBJ.

 

And as far as being concerned about the future state of our team, that does not detract one bit from the ability to enjoy this year's team. It's not an either or situation.

 

Peter Gammons wrote in his column the other day that the White Sox wanted to build a package around Benintendi & Devers, but DD said they were both off limits, so Rick Hahn "settled" on Moncada. He wrote that Swihart is also "untouchable" in a previous column.

[southpaw777]

He might have done better here, but you're right.

 

I do think he'll be a great one.

 

I tried to do some research on 18 year olds that were ranked highly and how they turned out.

 

The only two I found were Todd Van Poppel and Dwight Gooden, but Gooden did jump from single A to the AAA playoffs at age 18- something Espi was not close to doing.

 

Unless the kid was King Felix at the same age, hes just another young prospect with high upside. Hes done nothing yet. i get the Pedro endorsement, but ill wait until he reallly impresses me somewhere.

I hope he has a stellar career. Im just not as high on an 18yo with potential as some.

[sk7326]

Glad you didn't include Julio Urias, because he was 16 when he Pitched in Low A, which is where Espinoza is now, and turns 19 in March.

Urias had a 2.48 ERA too, that year.

 

but even then, the kid was on strict pitch and hitter counts - you're not going to see a kid that young turn around 100 IP very often

[notin]

You don't think DD would have subbed Swihart for Kopech?

 

No, and I don't blame him.

 

Swihart has already made the majors. Kopech is a headcase with a lightning arm who might burn himself out before he gets there. It happens...

[moonslav59]

Unless the kid was King Felix at the same age, hes just another young prospect with high upside. Hes done nothing yet. i get the Pedro endorsement, but ill wait until he reallly impresses me somewhere.

I hope he has a stellar career. Im just not as high on an 18yo with potential as some.

 

I totally understand get your position.

 

I realize there's a pretty significant chance Espi flames out (same with Kopech).

 

Maybe it's just the fact that we've never had a kid that young placed so high as a pitcher. Maybe that's clouded my judgement, but I'm still super high on the kid.

 

I hope I'm wrong, and Pom kicks some whoop ass.

[moonslav59]

No, and I don't blame him.

 

Swihart has already made the majors. Kopech is a headcase with a lightning arm who might burn himself out before he gets there. It happens...

 

True.

 

And, with our catcher situation still in flux, keeping Swi made a lot of sense.

 

I'm sure DD knows more about Kopech's "head" than I do, so I trust the call he made, in fact I love the trade.

 

[cp176]

I totally understand get your position.

 

I realize there's a pretty significant chance Espi flames out (same with Kopech).

 

Maybe it's just the fact that we've never had a kid that young placed so high as a pitcher. Maybe that's clouded my judgement, but I'm still super high on the kid.

 

I hope I'm wrong, and Pom kicks some whoop ass.

 

Hey don't be infringing on my "whoop ass in a can" or the cheese might slide off my cracker. Glad to see that someone (obviously not me) has made you realize that your Espi love might be a case of "clouded " judgement.

[southpaw777]

I totally understand get your position.

 

I realize there's a pretty significant chance Espi flames out (same with Kopech).

 

Maybe it's just the fact that we've never had a kid that young placed so high as a pitcher. Maybe that's clouded my judgement, but I'm still super high on the kid.

 

I hope I'm wrong, and Pom kicks some whoop ass.

 

I get it and i want both to do well (Pom &Espi)..Im higher on Kopech, not sold yet though, because hes a BIG kid whos body can handle the workload and hes already competed and succeeded against guys at the AA level. If he can do well in a full year at AA this year then I will be sold. Im not high on kids who are only hyped with no real success yet. Theres too many of those. Dominate the lower levels then AA and you will have my full attention.

Espi has way more of a chance to flame out at this point than Kopech. Thats not to say MK cant or wont. Hes just had some success already and is no longer mostly hype like Espi is right now. With Kopech being talked about as maybe a sept callup if everything works out well this year, His value was pretty high for this team. As high or higher than Moncada's IMHO. The value return for Espi was fair in MLB terms for what each needed moving forward with whatever their organizational plan is.

SD in a constant rebuild (Maybe we can get Espi back in 6 -8 years;) and we were adding necessary pieces for our 3-4 year window.

And like you, i wish both success with their respective teams.

[moonslav59]

Hey don't be infringing on my "whoop ass in a can" or the cheese might slide off my cracker. Glad to see that someone (obviously not me) has made you realize that your Espi love might be a case of "clouded " judgement.

 

I've always known there was a significant risk of him being a total flop or near flop, but everyone agrees his upside is pretty damn high.

 

I was also hoping someone would break the curse of Sox pitching prospects never panning out (except for Lester) since the Clemens and Schilling picks.

[Hugh2]

I've always known there was a significant risk of him being a total flop or near flop, but everyone agrees his upside is pretty damn high.

 

I was also hoping someone would break the curse of Sox pitching prospects never panning out (except for Lester) since the Clemens and Schilling picks.

 

There was a chance Bogaerts would flop and be the next Lars Anderson. Betts could of flopped, and almost all of humanity gave up on JBJ...heck! Porcello never pitched much more than average until he was 27.

 

Every prospect has a bust factor until they are in the big leagues, performing, putting up numbers, and officially not a bust.