Postseason Happenings 2016

[a700hitter]

Those stats would need to be stratified based on how big the difference between the 2 teams in W-L record.

 

What I'm really interested in is how much does HFA impact the outcome when the regular season difference between the 2 teams is small.

Wrong. If we don't get the HFA, we will be at a historical statistical disadvantage. You want to start playing the game, "uh we don't have HFA, but we are still the better team" schtick. Good for you. What are the stats? They are that the team without HFA wins 45% of the time. Not having the HFA is not a death sentence, but the team with HFA wins 55% of the time. Those are just the stats.

[Bellhorn04]

Wrong. If we don't get the HFA, we will be at a historical statistical disadvantage. You want to start playing the game, "uh we don't have HFA, but we are still the better team" schtick. Good for you. What are the stats? They are that the team without HFA wins 45% of the time. Not having the HFA is not a death sentence, but the team with HFA wins 55% of the time. Those are just the stats.

 

I think you're being deliberately obtuse. Included in that 55% are obvious mismatches, like it will be this year when the Cubs play the NL wild card. That series could be played in Japan and the Cubs would still be at a huge advantage.

[Examiner]

Three points, and I'm not disagreeing with what your're saying, except for your last sentence.

 

1. Is it possible that you're viewpoint is colored by your never from opening day believing in this team?

 

2. This team has played well enough to win in these last two series, except for the closer. That needs to be changed, but it's not grounds to condemn the team to being done.

 

3. Baseball can be a game of streaks. Both winning streaks and losing streaks. I was thinking the same thing you were during the winning streak- that sometimes teams go flat after a streak like that. OTOH, they'd have some games to be flat in and then start playing well again. While the team isn't playing their best baseball at the moment they are playing well enough to beat the Yankees and Toronto other than, well, see my Point #1.

 

They're not done. It's now either up to John Farrell to make (or be prepared to make) the necessary bullpen change or for the offense to go back to scoring enough runs to keep our closer out of the games. Either of those can happen.

 

It's possible, I've even had that thought myself, you know, like maybe it's just all my lack of belief in them. Honestly, I hope that's the case, but in over 30 years of watching sports, I've just learned to recognize a champion when I see them. The 2013 team was special from the first day, you could just see it. I doubted them once in August right before they got Peavey, and then when they were down 2-1 in the WS, but by and large I always believed in them, because every time they HAD to win, they won. These guys? I'm not seeing it yet. We will know a lot more by next weekend.

[Examiner]

1. The 2013 Red Sox lost 3 of their last 5 games.

 

2. How a team finishes the season has no correlation to their postseason success. In other words, there is little truth to the notion of 'momentum' or lack thereof carrying into the playoffs.

 

3. I've said it a hundred times and I'll say it again. Winning by scores like 13-1 and losing by one or two runs is a sign of a good team.

 

True, but there are big differences.

 

1. The 2013 team did enough to clinch top seed, and won every game near the end needed to do so.

 

2. They had a season long pedigree of walk off wins, late inning comebacks and winning close games, this team has done none of that consistently, in fact, before the winning streak they almost never did it at all. Whoever scored first in a Sox game was usually the winner.

 

3. A team winning 11 then losing 4/5 is usually the sign of an inconsistent team, just as teams who struggle on offense will have spells of winning 13-1. I disagree that this is the sign of a good team. Their record in one run/close games is right around .500, while they win many blowout games. Come playoff time, that will not fly.

 

4. The intangibles are not here like they were in 2013. It's like it starts to coalesce, and then sputters out. No team I've ever rooted for in any sport has won a chamionship without having that in order. Some teams like the 2006 Cardinals struggle and look awful in the season then flip a switch, but usually not.

[moonslav59]

A team winning 11 then losing 4/5 is usually the sign of an inconsistent team, just as teams who struggle on offense will have spells of winning 13-1. I disagree that this is the sign of a good team. Their record in one run/close games is right around .500, while they win many blowout games. Come playoff time, that will not fly.

 

The 2013 team had many "inconsistent" stretches as well.

 

They won 7 in a row followed by losing 3 or 4 and then won 5 more in a row and 7 out of 8. Right after this, they went 1-6 (and 2-9). Then, they won 5 straight.

 

In many ways the 2013 Sox were more up and down than the 2016 team.

 

They had a 4-8 stretch in June followed by a 9-1 streak.

 

In July they lost 3 in a row, then won 4 in a row followed by going 3-6.

 

In August, we had a 7-2 stretch followed immediately by a 2-6 stretch. That was then followed by a 12-2 run.

 

They ended the season 5-6.

 

 

 

 

[Kimmi]

True, but there are big differences.

 

1. The 2013 team did enough to clinch top seed, and won every game near the end needed to do so.

 

2. They had a season long pedigree of walk off wins, late inning comebacks and winning close games, this team has done none of that consistently, in fact, before the winning streak they almost never did it at all. Whoever scored first in a Sox game was usually the winner.

 

3. A team winning 11 then losing 4/5 is usually the sign of an inconsistent team, just as teams who struggle on offense will have spells of winning 13-1. I disagree that this is the sign of a good team. Their record in one run/close games is right around .500, while they win many blowout games. Come playoff time, that will not fly.

 

4. The intangibles are not here like they were in 2013. It's like it starts to coalesce, and then sputters out. No team I've ever rooted for in any sport has won a chamionship without having that in order. Some teams like the 2006 Cardinals struggle and look awful in the season then flip a switch, but usually not.

 

The 2013 team was 21-21 in one run games and 33-13 in blow out games. Their run differential was +197.

 

The 2016 team is 20-23 in one run games and 30-11 in blow out games. Their run differential is +185.

 

Very similar seasons in regards to that. The notion that 'good teams will win the close games' is false. Close games are mostly a 50-50 toss up.

 

Incidentally, the 2014 Sox were 28-28 in one run games and 15-21 in blowouts. The 2015 Sox were 20-19 in one run games and 25-23 in blowouts.

 

This 2016 team is a good team. They might not win it all, but it won't be because they aren't a good team, and it won't be because they don't have HFA.

[Kimmi]

I think you're being deliberately obtuse. Included in that 55% are obvious mismatches, like it will be this year when the Cubs play the NL wild card. That series could be played in Japan and the Cubs would still be at a huge advantage.

 

Thank you. Or even more to the point, that entire series could be played in the wildcard team's home ballpark, and the Cubbies would still have the advantage.

 

And while I'm on the topic of the Cubbies, for Examiner, the Cubs this year are 22-23 in one run games and 42-13 in blowouts.

[iortiz]

Probably it is it just me, but I feel more confident watching the Sox playing more games in CLE than in Boston.

 

Said that... Boston wins in 4.

 

... and plays against Toronto in the ALCS. We win in 7.

 

... then we face the Cubs and we win in 6.

 

Heard it first here.

[Maxbialystock]

Meh. I think it will again boil down to pitching as it did in 2013 when the Sox ERA in the postseason was 2.00. I think Lester and Lackey in 2013 were better than Porcello and Price in 2016, but I like ERod and Buchholz now more than Buchholz and Peavy then. That Uehara was better than this one, but I like this bullpen if Kimbrel can get his head out of his ass.

 

As for competition, I think the Tigers of 2013 were better than anyone we face in the AL this year.

 

Losing 5 of the last 6 does bother me, so right now I am listening to the optimists who say the 3 days off this week will wipe that out.

 

First two are in Cleveland with perfect baseball weather.

[moonslav59]

Meh. I think it will again boil down to pitching as it did in 2013 when the Sox ERA in the postseason was 2.00. I think Lester and Lackey in 2013 were better than Porcello and Price in 2016, but I like ERod and Buchholz now more than Buchholz and Peavy then. That Uehara was better than this one, but I like this bullpen if Kimbrel can get his head out of his ass.

 

As for competition, I think the Tigers of 2013 were better than anyone we face in the AL this year.

 

Losing 5 of the last 6 does bother me, so right now I am listening to the optimists who say the 3 days off this week will wipe that out.

 

First two are in Cleveland with perfect baseball weather.

 

Well said. I do think players like Bogey and Pedey really needed the rest. I hope it's not too much rest, but I think it should be just right.

 

Even with the injuries to the Guardians' rotation, we cannot take them lightly. While they don't have the bench we have, and they have a sub .600 catching OPS, they are a pretty balanced offensive team. They are one of the very few teams with 5 guys over .800, 6 guys over .790 and 7 guys over .760:

 

.886 Naquin

.865 Santana

.825 Ramirez

.811 Kipnis

.800 Napoli

.794 Lindor

.767 Chisenhall

 

.693 R Davis

.527 Gomes

 

Subs:

.907 B Guyer (96 PA)

.778 M Byrd

.695 Almonte

.602 Gimenez

.591 Uribe

.579 R Perez

 

Their SP'ers:

 

3.14 Kluber (1.06 WHIP)

4.26 Bauer (1.31)

4.40 Tomlin (1.19)

5.26 Clevinger (1.49)

 

The pen:

 

2.51/1.00 Cody Allen (32 Svs)

1.55/0.55 Andrew Miller (w CLE)

1.53/.0.91 Dan Otero

3.24/1.26 Bryan Shaw

3.74/1.20 Tommy Hunter

2.25/1.15 J Chamberlain

 

This is a solid team with a good manager.

 

[Slasher9]

so now that we spit the bit on HFA in this round i find myself in the odd position where i do not want to sweep as i have tickets to Game 4. these should have been game 2 had we not lost our final 28 games.....

 

any guesses on game time for monday's game if it's necessary?

[moonslav59]

Well said. I do think players like Bogey and Pedey really needed the rest. I hope it's not too much rest, but I think it should be just right.

 

Even with the injuries to the Guardians' rotation, we cannot take them lightly. While they don't have the bench we have, and they have a sub .600 catching OPS, they are a pretty balanced offensive team. They are one of the very few teams with 5 guys over .800, 6 guys over .790 and 7 guys over .760:

 

.886 Naquin

.865 Santana

.825 Ramirez

.811 Kipnis

.800 Napoli

.794 Lindor

.767 Chisenhall

 

.693 R Davis

.527 Gomes

 

Subs:

.907 B Guyer (96 PA)

.778 M Byrd

.695 Almonte

.602 Gimenez

.591 Uribe

.579 R Perez

 

Their SP'ers:

 

3.14 Kluber (1.06 WHIP)

4.26 Bauer (1.31)

4.40 Tomlin (1.19)

5.26 Clevinger (1.49)

 

The pen:

 

2.51/1.00 Cody Allen (32 Svs)

1.55/0.55 Andrew Miller (w CLE)

1.53/.0.91 Dan Otero

3.24/1.26 Bryan Shaw

3.74/1.20 Tommy Hunter

2.25/1.15 J Chamberlain

 

This is a solid team with a good manager.

 

 

On the Sox side, if you count Young and Beni with 345 PAs combined, we have 8 guys over .800!

 

1.021 Ortiz

.897 Betts

.866 Ramirez

.850 Young/.835 Benintendi

.845 Leon

.835 Bradley

.825 Pedroia

.802 Bogey

 

.726 Shaw/.705 Holt (3B)

 

Too bad Young or Beni can't play 3B.

 

Others:

.730 Hernandez (56 PA)

.585 Vaz

.577 Hill

.468 Hanigan

 

Our Rotation:

 

3.15 Porcello 1.01 WHIP

3.99 D Price 1.20

4.78 Buchholz 1.33 (3.22/1.11 2nd half)

4.71 ERod 1.30

 

The pen:

3.40/1.09 Kimbrel (31 svs)

3.45/.096 Uehara

1.52/1.25 Ziegler

3.25/1.25 R Ross

4.17/1.23 Tazawa

5.18/1.70 Kelly (1.02/1.02 in relief)

6.39/1.66 Abad

0.00/1.33 R Scott in 6 IP

 

 

[moonslav59]

2nd Half ERA-

 

59 Porcello 59 Kluber

73 Buchholz 125 Bauer

73 ERod 131 Tomlin

80 Price

 

2nd Half WAR

3.4 Porcello 1.7 Kluber

1.8 Price 0.9 Bauer

1.7 ERod 0.4 Tomlin

1.1 Buch

 

 

 

Edited October 3, 2016 by moonslav59

[Nick]

At this point, I think it's often a mistake to simply look at the season averages...

 

I'm more interested in team to team matchups, pitchers vs hitters. PGA professionals are usually tied to the golf courses. Successful golfers at Augusta usually will play well there regardless of how they may have played the month before.

 

Cleveland hitters with previous success against Porcello, Price, etc will pose problems in the playoffs, and vice versa.

[moonslav59]

2nd Half Pen WAR

1.5 Miller 0.7 Ziegler

0.8 Otero 0.5 Kelly

0.6 B Shaw 0.5 Uehara

0.4 McAllister 0.4 Kimbrel

0.2 Crockett 0.3 Barnes + 0.2 Ross

 

 

[harmony]

Probably it is it just me, but I feel more confident watching the Sox playing more games in CLE than in Boston.

 

Said that... Boston wins in 4.

 

... and plays against Toronto in the ALCS. We win in 7.

 

... then we face the Cubs and we win in 6.

 

Heard it first here.

That projected Game 7 of the American League Championship Series would be played at Fenway Park on Saturday, Oct. 23, when I am likely to be on a rare visit to Boston. If I could only afford a ticket.

[sk7326]

Some of the plusses for this team:

 

Offense - this is obvious, but the non-obvious part is good too. The team has not just hit, but has hit everywhere (granted, better at Fenway as you'd expect), and has held up very well against good pitching. This has not been all done against #4 starters. There are issues at 3B - but seriously, if Holt or Travis Shaw is your worst non-catcher hitter, that is not too shabby.

 

Missing Bats - pitching got a lot better, and ended up with the AL's 4th best strikeout rate. This becomes more important in these short series - rallies being snuffed out by the pitcher. Deep lineups and missing bats has been a very durable formula for a champion.

 

Bullpen - has been phenomenal in September. We know the party can't last. But even so Ziegler-Uehara-Kimbrel is a solid bridge. Kelly and Pomeranz could both be "2012 Lincecum" sort of 6 out weapons to provide even more depth.

 

Am I picking Boston? Of course not - I have been a fan too long.

[d-money]

I think people here are sleeping on texas.

[Bellhorn04]

I think people here are sleeping on texas.

 

Texas isn't even in the picture yet. We have to get past Cleveland and Texas has to get past Jays or O's.

[SoxFanForsyth]

So, I haven't been around very much, and it doesn't quite feel right to start a playoff GT after missing 98% of the season. But, at the same time, the Sox somehow played well when I was starting the threads. All this to say, I wanted to get everyone's thoughts. Do you want me to start the playoff game thread?

[mvp 78]

So, I haven't been around very much, and it doesn't quite feel right to start a playoff GT after missing 98% of the season. But, at the same time, the Sox somehow played well when I was starting the threads. All this to say, I wanted to get everyone's thoughts. Do you want me to start the playoff game thread?

 

Do it.

[sk7326]

I think people here are sleeping on texas.

 

Absurd record in one run games - absurd enough to bet the under on repeating it. But - this is baseball - any of the ten teams could win it, and it would make perfect sense.

[Spudboy]

So, I haven't been around very much, and it doesn't quite feel right to start a playoff GT after missing 98% of the season. But, at the same time, the Sox somehow played well when I was starting the threads. All this to say, I wanted to get everyone's thoughts. Do you want me to start the playoff game thread?

 

Absolutely.

[d-money]

Texas isn't even in the picture yet. We have to get past Cleveland and Texas has to get past Jays or O's.

 

I am talking about the ALDS. Some people assume that the blue jays or the O's will beat them.

[Bellhorn04]

I am talking about the ALDS. Some people assume that the blue jays or the O's will beat them.

 

I haven't seen anyone here say that.

[illinoisredsox]

Absurd record in one run games - absurd enough to bet the under on repeating it. But - this is baseball - any of the ten teams could win it, and it would make perfect sense.

 

FWIW, while the Rangers were 36-11 in 1-run games, their record in those types of games against the 4 other AL playoff teams was 4-4 (and that going a 3-1 vs. the Jays). Their overall record vs. the other AL playoff teams was 15-12.

 

Baltimore was 25-26 vs. AL playoff teams and 32-29 against all playoff teams

Boston 27-23 and 31-26

Cleveland 9-17 and 12-21

Texas 15-12 and 16-14

Toronto 27-25 and 30-28

 

All of which means ... nothing. Any team can get hot for 5 games (a week) and any team can just not have it for a week.

[a700hitter]

So, I haven't been around very much, and it doesn't quite feel right to start a playoff GT after missing 98% of the season. But, at the same time, the Sox somehow played well when I was starting the threads. All this to say, I wanted to get everyone's thoughts. Do you want me to start the playoff game thread?

Start the game thread for the playoffs!

[TylerD]

Start the game thread for the playoffs!

 

I'll second this. We will need all the help we can get lol

[SoxFanForsyth]

Sounds good guys. I'll put it up on gameday. Lets go!!!

[Spudboy]

FWIW, while the Rangers were 36-11 in 1-run games, their record in those types of games against the 4 other AL playoff teams was 4-4 (and that going a 3-1 vs. the Jays). Their overall record vs. the other AL playoff teams was 15-12.

 

Baltimore was 25-26 vs. AL playoff teams and 32-29 against all playoff teams

Boston 27-23 and 31-26

Cleveland 9-17 and 12-21

Texas 15-12 and 16-14

Toronto 27-25 and 30-28

 

All of which means ... nothing. Any team can get hot for 5 games (a week) and any team can just not have it for a week.

 

Like we say here on Talksox, the playoffs are a crap shoot.