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Postseason Happenings 2016

Slasher9

By Slasher9
in Boston Red Sox Talk

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harmony FCL Red Sox

harmony

Verified Member
Posted
Posted
You seem to ask about Buch a lot for someone who has no great value.

 

I made a brief mention of Clay Buchholz in a largely unrelated post then responded to your inquiries:

Yes and yes, although I am probably an optimist.

 

The Mariners have added Jean Segura, Danny Valencia, Carlos Ruiz and Mitch Haniger to a potent offense that this year trailed only the Red Sox in wRC+ (the M's have subtracted Adam Lind, Nori Aoki, Dae-ho Lee and Ketel Marte).

 

Pitching was the problem with this year's 86-win team and the team lacks rotation depth with the trade of Taijuan Walker. Should the Red Sox trim payroll with a trade of Clay Buchholz? At any rate, I expect the M's to be in the market for another starter or two to go with Felix Hernandez, Hisashi Iwakuma, James Paxton, Ariel Miranda and Nate Karns.

 

Seattle GM Jerry Dipoto left the Angel farm system barren but many attribute the demise to Halo owner Arte Moreno. Dipoto inherited a weak Seattle farm system that has probably improved since Dipoto's arrival in September 2015.

 

I'm bracing for regression from probably two of Robinson Cano, Kyle Seager and Nelson Cruz, but I remain optimistic.

http://www.talksox.com/forum/threads/17862-Postseason-Happenings-2016?p=1040101#post1040101

harmony FCL Red Sox

harmony

Verified Member
Posted
Posted
I could be wrong, bust I believe you've mentioned him often. I believe even back on the old BDC.

Well, I raised this issue last month:

How does the $13.5 million Clay Buchholz option compare with that of Jason Hammel, whose $12 million option for 2017 has been declined by the Chicago Cubs?

 

The 32-year-old Buchholz has been valued at 5.3 fWAR in 423 innings over the past three seasons, including 0.5 fWAR in 139.1 innings this year.

 

Hammel, who is two years older than Buchholz, has been valued at 5.6 fWAR in 513.2 innings over the past three seasons, including 1.5 fWAR in 166.2 innings this year.

http://www.talksox.com/forum/threads/17583-Clay-Buchholz-Is-he-worth-the-2016-option?p=1038051#post1038051

 

And I guess I made a brief mention in this post about Rusney Castillo's contract:

Is Rusney Castillo in a transactional purgatory?

 

Castillo is owed $46 million over the next four seasons but his salary does not count against the Red Sox luxury tax threshold because the 29-year-old outfielder has been removed from the 40-man roster.

 

However, any team seeking to acquire Castillo for its 40-man roster would need count his salary in its luxury tax calculations. The Red Sox likely would need to pay much of the $46 million remaining on the contract but would have less motivation to do so because the salary does not count for their luxury tax purposes.

 

But wait a second ... if the Red Sox pay part of the salary of a player on another team's 40-man roster, the Red Sox contribution should count in the Red Sox luxury tax calculation.

 

Hence, the purgatory.

 

This Seattle fan thought of Castillo because the strong-hitting Mariners need to improve their defense, especially in the outfield. I wondered how much the Red Sox would need to pay to close a trade of Castillo and one year of Clay Buchholz for a low-level Seattle prospect.

http://www.talksox.com/forum/threads/17963-Looking-ahead-to-2017/page7

 

And I offered this response to one of your posts:

 

Quote Originally Posted by moonslav59 View Post

I realize the risk, but I'm going to be a Sox fan much longer than 5 years.

 

The point about our past pitching prospects not doing well has nothing to do with Espinoza.

 

We haven't had a pitching prospect ranked this highly since long before this management group.

 

Yes, Espi is young. Yes, he may fail. Yes, he may become much greater than anything Pompom can give us, and his team control will be much more than 2.4 years.

For what it's worth, Clay Buchholz was Baseball America's fourth-ranked prospect entering the 2008 season:

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today...08/265655.html

http://www.talksox.com/forum/threads/17549-A-Realistic-View-at-2016/page155

Kimmi Boston Red Sox

Kimmi

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
Let's assume for a moment that the Sox will try to reset the luxury tax this winter by staying under the limit. They may not this winter, but let's just go with this scenario for a bit. That leaves us with about $10M to try and upgrade our pen, DH and possibly 3B.

 

Let's say we can get Ziegler and Uehara for $10M combined for argument's sake.

 

So, we keep Buch and add 2 RP'ers and are locked in with what we have all year. Any addition in salary mid season will need and offset in salary traded away.

 

I think we'd be looking pretty good, but would this be better?

 

We trade Buch for a RP'er similar to Ziegler in ability but at a low cost (min salary).

 

With the $13.5M, we now have $23.5M to spend. Let's say we can get Beltran for $37M/2 ($18.5M a year). With the left over $5M, we sign Uehara.

 

So, in theory, we could have Beltran, Uehara and someone close to Ziegler's skill or Buch, Ziegler and Uehara.

 

Which gives us a better chance to win?

 

I realize the loss of Buch makes Owens/Johnson/Elias our 6th starter, but Beltran should play nearly every day.

 

I would go with the Buchholz option over the Beltran one. Even though Beltran should play every day, how much of an upgrade will he provide over the offense we already have? I am not concerned about our offense for 2017. Sure, if we can improve our offense that would be great, but not if if comes at the expense of our pitching.

 

IMO, we need the starting pitching depth more than we need Beltran.

Kimmi Boston Red Sox

Kimmi

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
Now HERE is your depth

 

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/12/padres-non-tender-tyson-ross-five-others.html

 

While Sox fans are wondering why the team won't go out and get rehabbing AAAA arms like Brandon Workman and Rubby de la Rosa, the Padres have put rehabbing Tyson Ross and Erik Johnson (who I believe is not rehabbing anything) back on the market...

 

I'd definitely take a flyer on Ross. I don't know much about Johnson, but I'm not impressed with numbers, specifically his ERA 'predictors'.

notin MVP

notin

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
I'd definitely take a flyer on Ross. I don't know much about Johnson, but I'm not impressed with numbers, specifically his ERA 'predictors'.

 

Ross will get attention and then be paid more money than he deserves. And for all that, who knows how often he even pitches? Not to mention whoever signs him might be disappointed unless they start playing their home games in Petco.

 

Johnson has never amounted to much, but the first question I have is "is he better than Henry Owens?" If so, a minor league deal might not be a bad idea.

moonslav59 GOAT

moonslav59

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
Ross will get attention and then be paid more money than he deserves. And for all that, who knows how often he even pitches? Not to mention whoever signs him might be disappointed unless they start playing their home games in Petco.

 

Johnson has never amounted to much, but the first question I have is "is he better than Henry Owens?" If so, a minor league deal might not be a bad idea.

 

In 2015, Ross did show strong signs that PETCO was not what was making him look better:

 

Home: 3.70

Away: 2.83

moonslav59 GOAT

moonslav59

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
Were we napping when Astros signed Beltran for 1 year deal? $16M sounds reasonable.

 

To Plan B.

 

I'd have given $32M/2 and dealt Buch to stay under the limit, if that is a high priority.

 

It looks like the Sox are looking to Pablo, Shaw, Moncada, Holt/Hernandez and Young to fill the 3B & DH slots.

harmony FCL Red Sox

harmony

Verified Member
Posted
Posted
I'd have given $32M/2 and dealt Buch to stay under the limit, if that is a high priority.

 

It looks like the Sox are looking to Pablo, Shaw, Moncada, Holt/Hernandez and Young to fill the 3B & DH slots.

I suspect the Red Sox have explored the trade market for Clay Buchholz. I wonder what they've found.

Kimmi Boston Red Sox

Kimmi

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
Ross will get attention and then be paid more money than he deserves. And for all that, who knows how often he even pitches? Not to mention whoever signs him might be disappointed unless they start playing their home games in Petco.

 

Johnson has never amounted to much, but the first question I have is "is he better than Henry Owens?" If so, a minor league deal might not be a bad idea.

 

Since Ross is coming off an injury, it may be possible to sign him for a low guaranteed, high incentive contract. You're probably right that somebody will pay him more than he deserves though.

 

As far as Johnson goes, the same could be asked about de la Rosa, no? Would de la Rosa be better than Owens, and would he be better than Johnson?

moonslav59 GOAT

moonslav59

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted (edited)
I suspect the Red Sox have explored the trade market for Clay Buchholz. I wonder what they've found.

 

I think the SP'er market will tighten up even further as winter progresses, and a GM will overpay for Buch.

Edited by moonslav59
notin MVP

notin

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
Since Ross is coming off an injury, it may be possible to sign him for a low guaranteed, high incentive contract. You're probably right that somebody will pay him more than he deserves though.

 

As far as Johnson goes, the same could be asked about de la Rosa, no? Would de la Rosa be better than Owens, and would he be better than Johnson?

 

Yes one could ask about de la Rosa. He actually probably is a better pitcher than Erik Johnson, at least he certainly has had more success at the MLB level. My only concern- clearly Arizona's as well - is his health, which has been an issue with him since before coming to Boston last time...

  • 2 weeks later...
Wade Boggs Draft Eligible

Wade Boggs

Verified Member
Posted
Posted
Koji to the Cubs.

 

1 year, $6. Mil.

 

Also 8 first class round trip tickets included in the deal ( Japan) family/ friends the Cubs put in there. . Not bad.

Emp9 First Round Pick

Emp9

Verified Member
Posted
Posted
Jonny Gomes has .855 OPS vs LHP? wow. I know he's not looking for a minor league deal, but I'd love to have him stashed away in AAA in case an injury happens. And who knows, maybe he could beat some sense into some underachieving prospect or two? LOL
moonslav59 GOAT

moonslav59

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
Jonny Gomes has .855 OPS vs LHP? wow. I know he's not looking for a minor league deal, but I'd love to have him stashed away in AAA in case an injury happens. And who knows, maybe he could beat some sense into some underachieving prospect or two? LOL

 

He only hit for .795 vs LHPs for us in 2013. That surprised me (.745 vs RHPs).

 

He was even worse the next year (.743 vs LHPs).

 

He was at .783 vs LHPs with KC in 2015.

 

His overall .526 OPS in Japan last year leads me to think he's done, but I'm fine with a minor league deal.

 

mvp 78 GOAT

mvp 78

Community Moderator
Posted
Posted
He only hit for .795 vs LHPs for us in 2013. That surprised me (.745 vs RHPs).

 

He was even worse the next year (.743 vs LHPs).

 

He was at .783 vs LHPs with KC in 2015.

 

His overall .526 OPS in Japan last year leads me to think he's done, but I'm fine with a minor league deal.

 

 

Bench coach.

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