Red Sox Acquire Drew Pomeranz

[User Name]

Pomeranz is a two pitch pitcher who can't stay healthy. He's been a swing pitcher his entire career before settling into the rotation in Petco park. All of a sudden, he's a "must have". He's never thrown more than 100IP in a major league season. He walks his fair share of hitters. He's having a hell of a season. But he's a lefty entering Fenway. He's worth something. But is he worth the #14 prospect in all of baseball who has lights out stuff as a full season 18 yr old? If Espinosa was a given to be dealt for pitching, I'd expect it to be for someone with a bit more track record

 

Pomeranz added a cutter before ST, and it figures significantly into his current repertoire (he throws it over 15% of the time, similar percentage as his breaking ball) to go along with an improved (but still show-me) changeup. I get the points about the risk, and it's all fair, but take the thirty seconds to look up if the BS you're spouting is actually correct. The main reason for DP's breakout is that he's no longer a two-pitch pitcher.

 

By the way, talent evaluators consider his results "sustainable" but fear issues with his durability. That's the professional take. Don't make stuff up.

[User Name]

Me? i would either get bonafide TOTR starter or hold on to him. but i get it...the pickings are slim and the costs are extremely high. but as Moon pointed out...with a bit of foresight we could have had Pom for far, far less this past offseason.....

that being said....if Pom helps us get a parade this year then i dont care if Espy goes on to win 4 CY's. it was worth the trade. (my same exact thoughts on the 2013 trade).

 

Pomeranz probably doesn't break out if the Sox get him during the off-season. The guessing game is just that: Guessing.

[Hitch]

They weren't getting a worthwhile starter without giving up Espinoza.

 

Dombrowski was damned if he did and damned if he didn't.

 

Possibly. My point is, I don't think it had to be Espinoza. Or, I should clarify, I think that's what some people's opinion is.

 

I'm a little disappointed with the trade as it really is far from sure we have our worthwhile starter for Espinoza. I'm not against giving the kid up. If we got the right guy for the kid remains to be seen, however. But I'm certainly glad DD is making moves.

 

Like UN said earlier, DD rarely comes down on the wrong side of these things so I have some optimism too.

[User Name]

DD was never going to give up Kopech instead of Espinoza. I've been following the Tigers for years since I lived in Michigan, and DD believes in the "Texas system" of big pitchers with big fastballs. He'll draft the small ones, but he'll trade 'em.

[cp176]

Me? i would either get bonafide TOTR starter or hold on to him. but i get it...the pickings are slim and the costs are extremely high. but as Moon pointed out...with a bit of foresight we could have had Pom for far, far less this past offseason.....

that being said....if Pom helps us get a parade this year then i dont care if Espy goes on to win 4 CY's. it was worth the trade. (my same exact thoughts on the 2013 trade).

 

Holding on to him would be the reality. It would not have been a bad thing either. Any general manager of a club not in total rebuild could lose his job for trading a pitcher like Pomeranz for a single A prospect years away from the majors. the Sox just don't have to operate in rebuild mode. Many would have wanted more than just Espinoza as good as he might someday be.

[Emp9]

 

Dombrowski was damned if he did and damned if he didn't.

 

This is true. Our backs were against the wall, no doubt. I still would've waited a bit more for some teams to drop off. DD obviously didn't like the idea of waiting any longer.

 

I think the posters on here that dislike this trade have good reason not to. They're not being contrarian for it's own sake, they're being genuinely honest about the situation. We gave up the 4th best pitching prospect in baseball for ... a #3 Starter ( and I really hope Pomeranz is at least a #3 ) to compete now. A much needed #3. I hope it's enough. I hope it works out. But even if it does, it's still a huge over pay. The only thing that will comfort me is if this helps get another ring.

 

An argument can be made that by not going for it (to the best our our abilities, given this SP market), does a dis-service not only to Papi, but to the young core we have right now in Betts, XB, JBJ, Wright, etc. So, as a fan, I need think in that perspective.

[Bellhorn04]

They weren't getting a worthwhile starter without giving up Espinoza.

 

Dombrowski was damned if he did and damned if he didn't.

 

Exactly.

[mvp 78]

Pomeranz is a two pitch pitcher who can't stay healthy. He's been a swing pitcher his entire career before settling into the rotation in Petco park. All of a sudden, he's a "must have". He's never thrown more than 100IP in a major league season. He walks his fair share of hitters. He's having a hell of a season. But he's a lefty entering Fenway. He's worth something. But is he worth the #14 prospect in all of baseball who has lights out stuff as a full season 18 yr old? If Espinosa was a given to be dealt for pitching, I'd expect it to be for someone with a bit more track record

 

If he has lights out stuff, why is he struggling this year?

[mvp 78]

This is true. Our backs were against the wall, no doubt. I still would've waited a bit more for some teams to drop off.

 

Due to the additional Wild Card team, it is unlikely that any team would drop off over the next 2 weeks. There is a better chance that they would have entered into a bidding war.

 

I'd also rather make a move 2 weeks in advance when you can get an additional couple of starts out of a high caliber pitcher than throwing a AAAA guy out there. Striking early could get us 2-3 extra wins this year.

[Bellhorn04]

Dombrowski says he figured there were 10 other teams in on Pomeranz.

[moonslav59]

They weren't getting a worthwhile starter without giving up Espinoza.

 

Dombrowski was damned if he did and damned if he didn't.

 

We had plenty of other good prospects, so I'm not sure it was absolutely necessary to part with Espi, Moncada or Beni to get a quality SP'er like DP with 2.4 years of control.

[mvp 78]

Pomeranz was also the 5th overall pick, it's not like he's some scrub that wandered in off the street.

 

Sure, there is risk, but there was risk associated with every available pitcher.

 

Also, you can't say "well they could have gotten him if they didn't give up Espinoza, they could have just given up pitcher A, B and C." Unless you were on the call, you have no idea. And honestly, Pomeranz is worth far more than Hill who has already been on the DL, is almost a decade older and is only under control for this season. Pomeranz has infinite more upside than Hill.

[Bellhorn04]

We had plenty of other good prospects, so I'm not sure it was absolutely necessary to part with Espi, Moncada or Beni to get a quality SP'er like DP with 2.4 years of control.

 

Dombrowski has the best view of the situation.

[mvp 78]

Dombrowski says he figured there were 10 other teams in on Pomeranz.

 

Yeah, but what would he know...

[mvp 78]

We had plenty of other good prospects, so I'm not sure it was absolutely necessary to part with Espi, Moncada or Beni to get a quality SP'er like DP with 2.4 years of control.

 

What other pitcher was available that was comparable to Pomeranz?

[mvp 78]

DD was never going to give up Kopech instead of Espinoza. I've been following the Tigers for years since I lived in Michigan, and DD believes in the "Texas system" of big pitchers with big fastballs. He'll draft the small ones, but he'll trade 'em.

 

Kopech is also pitching far better than Espinoza right now. At this moment, Espinoza is a lottery ticket, nothing more.

[moonslav59]

If he has lights out stuff, why is he struggling this year?

 

It's a tiny sampler size.

 

Opps still have only a .690 OPS against Espi this year, so I'm not sure that the 4.08 ERA in just 70 IP is an indication of a major "struggle". Even if we want to call it a "struggle", the kid is only 18, and it's not a good idea to raise and lower an 18 year old's stock too much over a selected 70 IP stretch. In fact, Espi's stock, according to ranking services, has risen since last year.

 

I hope this kid doesn't turn out to be the next Pedro, but we won't know for many years from now.

[Hugh2]

You can love and hate this trade at the same time and I won't let anyone in here tell me differently. He makes your team a lot better right now, but also has a huge potential to hurt the future. That's not necessarily an argument against the trade it's just a fact; you can be concerned with the possibility of gutting the system and the ramification it may hold but also be excited about going on a post season run this year and for the next several years with this team.

 

My biggest concern with Pomeranz is he's never pitched more than 102 innings at the MLB level and never more than 150 in a season. Now he's a big guy, with a good pitchers frame and the strength to be a starter and he seems to be able to get guys out efficiently 2nd and 3rd times through the order so that mitigates that risk. BUT, if you're not somewhat concerned about this guy disappearing in October then you are just not paying attention. What will his innings total be then? 190? 200? We have no ideal if he can reach that level of innings pitch because he never has before and we also have zero ideal how effective he will be if he tires down the stretch.

 

That is a risk, a very real risk. So are prospects. Here is a good read on the trade from Soxprospects, I encourage you all to give it a good read.

 

http://news.soxprospects.com/2016/07/trade-analysis-scouting-espinoza-for.html

Edited July 15, 2016 by A Red Sox fan named Hugh
It's Pomeranz not Pomeran

[a700hitter]

Come on, that's unfair on people and you know it. They didn't mind prospects being traded(they knew we'd have to suffer some pain to sort the pitching), but they didn't want Espinoza traded.

we weren't going to get Jose Fernandez for one Single A player even if his name was Jesus Christ. Pomeranz is 27, cheap, and he maybe achieving his major league peak potential. What did people expect to get for this kid? LOL. It's not like he wasted this chip on a 36 year old injury risk like Hill.

[moonslav59]

Kopech is also pitching far better than Espinoza right now. At this moment, Espinoza is a lottery ticket, nothing more.

 

Not many 14th ranked pitchers fail.

 

Besides, one could view Pomeranz as a "lottery ticket" as well. His record indicates there's a lot of risk involved by counting on him, as a lefty, moving to a new league, a new park, against new and stronger opponents to succeed (at least right away).

[mvp 78]

I hope this kid doesn't turn out to be the next Pedro, but we won't know for many years from now.

 

It's more likely that he doesn't become Pedro.

[a700hitter]

hope he doesn't pitch when I am down there - lol - wait maybe I do! Wouldn't mind seeing a good young pitcher do his thing for us in Fenway!

I have been to 6 or 7 games so far this season and I have seen Buch twice and Sean O'Sulllivan once. Ugh. It reminded me of Mike Torrez Half Price Nights!

[mvp 78]

Not many 14th ranked pitchers fail.

 

Besides, one could view Pomeranz as a "lottery ticket" as well. His record indicates there's a lot of risk involved by counting on him, as a lefty, moving to a new league, a new park, against new and stronger opponents to succeed (at least right away).

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/rankings/top-100-prospects/2006/26660.html

 

Here's the list from 10 years ago. Sure seems like there is a lot of hit or miss guys in here and many that could have been used to acquire a #2 starter.

[Bellhorn04]

At the end of the day you can blame Ben for leaving our starting rotation in such bad shape that moves like this became necessary.

[mvp 78]

we weren't going to get Jose Fernandez for one Single A player even if his name was Jesus Christ. Pomeranz is 27, cheap, and he maybe achieving his major league peak potential. What did people expect to get for this kid? LOL. It's not like he wasted this chip on a 36 year old injury risk like Hill.

 

Also, Fernandez isn't on the market. The Marlins were your competition for trades.

[mvp 78]

At the end of the day you can blame Ben for leaving our starting rotation in such bad shape that moves like this became necessary.

 

Also, thanks John Henry for lowballing Lester.

[mvp 78]

You can love and hate this trade at the same time and I won't let anyone in here tell me differently. He makes your team a lot better right now, but also has a huge potential to hurt the future. That's not necessarily an argument against the trade it's just a fact; you can be concerned with the possibility of gutting the system and the ramification it may hold but also be excited about going on a post season run this year and for the next several years with this team.

 

My biggest concern with Pomeranz is he's never pitched more than 102 innings at the MLB level and never more than 150 in a season. Now he's a big guy, with a good pitchers frame and the strength to be a starter and he seems to be able to get guys out efficiently 2nd and 3rd times through the order so that mitigates that risk. BUT, if you're not somewhat concerned about this guy disappearing in October then you are just not paying attention. What will his innings total be then? 190? 200? We have no ideal if he can reach that level of innings pitch because he never has before and we also have zero ideal how effective he will be if he tires down the stretch.

 

That is a risk, a very real risk. So are prospects. Here is a good read on the trade from Soxprospects, I encourage you all to give it a good read.

 

http://news.soxprospects.com/2016/07/trade-analysis-scouting-espinoza-for.html

 

You know who does have a history of disappearing in the playoffs? David bleeping Price... You know who else will probably struggle? Steven bleeping Wright...

[Hugh2]

If he has lights out stuff, why is he struggling this year?

 

Because he's 18 and facing guys 3-4 years older than him. Also 18 year olds don't throw lots of innings and are building up arm strength and still filling out, this is his very first full season of professional baseball. This is a kid who has never thrown more than 48.1 innings in a season....think about that. That can throw a guys mechanics off but scouts seem little concerned with his struggles....if anything it will make him a better pitcher one day.

 

I specifically remember soxprospects predicting he would struggle more the rest of the year yet his prospect status wouldn't drop one bit. I'll double down on that bet. In the absence of injury I'd suspect a big jump forward when he enters his second full season at 19 and lot stronger.

[a700hitter]

here is a wrench in the works for you - Maybe DD has little confidence that our boys can develop a starting pitcher from a prospect. It has been done so rarely as been noted numerous times. If I had to place a bet based on the odds, I would bet against the organizations ability to develop a young pitching prospect. Just being a little sarcastic - we have done fairly well without producing the pitchers that some others have. i like Dombrowski. i like the fact that our program is being run by an adult who is tough and who has a proven track record of success. He wants to win now and in the future as well.

Excellent point. The Red Sox have not been some pitching factory turning out top starters regularly. Until they start producing quality starters more often than once every 10 years, any high ceiling prospect is suspect to me.

[moonslav59]

It's more likely that he doesn't become Pedro.

 

Certainly true, but 50% of Pedro for 4-6 years may blow away 2.4 years of Pomeranz.