The all inclusive "2015 Predictions" thread

[Kimmi]

a700, we had years where the only viable pen arm was Mo. Having the hammer back there for 18 years meant that the pen got fixed last because old Mo was there. You don't replace that. But you can improve your pen overall if you add multiple arms capable of shutting down opposing offenses. We have that this yr. we have 4 guys who had wild success last yr in the pen. One will jump out and grab the role. We are also flush with pen talent in AAA and AA. While we don't have old steady back there, we have a better overall pen. My bet is Betances snags the closers role with Miller spelling him in lefty deep projected 9th innings. We also have Carpenter and Warren back there, who were dominant in their own right last yr. I am not worried about the pen. I am very concerned about the health and stability of our rotation

 

 

The Yankees starting rotation has as many question marks as the Sox rotation, with the Yankees rotation having more upside and the potential to be very, very good. (Note to self: Draft all Yankees starters.) The Yankees BP should be very good.

 

Both teams had a difficult time scoring runs last year. The Sox addressed this issue during the offseason, the Yankees did not. Therein lies the difference in standings, IMO. Not that any team in the division will run away with anything.

[jacksonianmarch]

Kimmi, our offense hasn't changed much, but we did keep Headley. I highly doubt Drew is as bad as he was last yr, and if he somehow is, we have Pirela and Refsnyder waiting. Those are two viable big league options who both raked in AAA last yr. ARod actually gives us a viable option at 1b should Tex go down again and Jones is another option for DH should ARod implode. Young hits lefties pretty well and should be able to spell Ells and Gardner when they need a rest vs lefties. We may not have made a blockbuster upgrade, but our contingencies and depth allow us not to be totally f***ed when an old man falls apart. I think our offense will be top 10 MLB. I think our pen will be top 5. Our rotation is the key. It could be top 5 or bottom 5. If it's the latter, we're done. If it's the former, we're making the playoffs

[sk7326]

Kimmi, our offense hasn't changed much, but we did keep Headley. I highly doubt Drew is as bad as he was last yr, and if he somehow is, we have Pirela and Refsnyder waiting. Those are two viable big league options who both raked in AAA last yr. ARod actually gives us a viable option at 1b should Tex go down again and Jones is another option for DH should ARod implode. Young hits lefties pretty well and should be able to spell Ells and Gardner when they need a rest vs lefties. We may not have made a blockbuster upgrade, but our contingencies and depth allow us not to be totally f***ed when an old man falls apart. I think our offense will be top 10 MLB. I think our pen will be top 5. Our rotation is the key. It could be top 5 or bottom 5. If it's the latter, we're done. If it's the former, we're making the playoffs

 

It will be interesting - the offense was genuinely bad last year - worse than Boston's (granted by a run). There have been no real personnel upgrades on that end - and fewer reasons for positive regression. The pitching moves, especially in the back of the bullpen help. Run prevention is what allowed them to squeeze 84 wins of blood out of a rock.

[Spudboy]

I can understand the Doc's optimism to some extent.

 

One thing I wonder about is Beltran. I remember a700 asking me if I thought the Sox should take a flier on him several years back.

 

The guy has bad wheels or some kind of chronic ailment. If or when he is healthy he is a dangerous hitter. But he seems to be hurt much of the time.

 

Maybe I'm wrong?

 

I still think that the presence of A Fraud will be a big issue and distraction. Can anyone ever see the Yankees eating his $61. mil contract?

[a700hitter]

I can understand the Doc's optimism to some extent.

 

One thing I wonder about is Beltran. I remember a700 asking me if I thought the Sox should take a flier on him several years back.

 

The guy has bad wheels or some kind of chronic ailment. If or when he is healthy he is a dangerous hitter. But he seems to be hurt much of the time.

 

Maybe I'm wrong?

 

I still think that the presence of A Fraud will be a big issue and distraction. Can anyone ever see the Yankees eating his $61. mil contract?

Beltran may just be broken down at this point. If not, he could be a very dangerous bat at Yankee Stadium.

 

As for AFraud, I can't see the Yankees eating $61 million, but I could see them eating half and cutting him after this season.

[User Name]

Yankees a top-10 offense? Would you bet on that, Jacko?

[jacksonianmarch]

Yankees a top-10 offense? Would you bet on that, Jacko?

 

Top 10 MLB in runs. Yeah, I'll make that sig bet.

[mvp 78]

What happened to all those steak dinner bets?

[jacksonianmarch]

Beltran may just be broken down at this point. If not, he could be a very dangerous bat at Yankee Stadium.

 

As for AFraud, I can't see the Yankees eating $61 million, but I could see them eating half and cutting him after this season.

 

a700, the problem with ARod is that the $61 mil is sunk cost. Cut him or keep him, he is getting that money. The money the Yankees are trying to avoid paying are the incentives. I thought they'd cut him before he could reach them, but it seems they are going to go the legal route and say the incentives were only to be paid out should he not have cheated to get there. Regardless, I don't think the Yankees win that argument.

 

There are a few reasons I am optimistic about this offense.

 

#1- they couldn't all suck again. Let's go down the list...

Ellsbury had his second highest HR total, yes. But he also had his lowest full season OPS since his rookie year. He just turned 31, he isn't over the hill as of yet. I bet he has a little less power, a higher BA and OBP and more steals for his second season in the Bronx

 

Gardner set a career high in HR too, but he also had a lower OPS than the season before and didn't steal as much. He is finally healthy after a wrist and core injury really limited him the last few years. I expect less HR, a higher OBP and more steals

 

McCann had a MISERABLE year in the Bronx. Yes, he led the team in HR, but he had an OPS over 100 points below career norms and a BA 40 points off his career pace. He's also 31, he isn't going to be as bad as he was last yr

 

Teixeira finally has a contingency. We have found that a healthy and rested Tex can mash. He was overworked as the season wore on, and without a viable backup, he crumbled. Jones and ARod around should keep him around 110-120 games without having to play 5-6 games in a row and keeping him fresh. I expect him to hit around .240/.340/.450 or so. Not great, but solid nonetheless

 

Over 1000ABs were made by Kelly Johnson, Alfonso Soriano, Ichiro Suzuki, and Brian Roberts mostly because we had no depth.

 

Beltran had a correctable problem repaired and we should see him back to his new baseline. Not expecting .300 hitting Beltran to walk through the door, but .703OPS Beltran likely isn't either

[Palodios]

There are a few reasons I am optimistic about this offense.

 

#1- they couldn't all suck again.

 

The Yankees are facing a problem we'll see with Pedroia, Napoli and Victorino. When players put their bodies on the line for enough years (refering to Nap at Catcher), it takes a toll, and they start to decline. Could they all see career averages again? Absolutely, but the odds are not great. The Yankee lineup is made entirely of those kinds of players.

[Bellhorn04]

Ellsbury had his second highest HR total, yes. But he also had his lowest full season OPS since his rookie year. He just turned 31, he isn't over the hill as of yet. I bet he has a little less power, a higher BA and OBP and more steals for his second season in the Bronx

 

Gardner set a career high in HR too, but he also had a lower OPS than the season before and didn't steal as much. He is finally healthy after a wrist and core injury really limited him the last few years. I expect less HR, a higher OBP and more steals

 

But both Ellsbury and Gardner had an OPS+ almost identical to the previous year. Some of the decline was in line with league-wide offensive decline, and Ellsbury was also affected by Park Factor.

 

There's no basis in metrics for them having off-years last year.

[jacksonianmarch]

And we forgot the best part. No 581ABs from a dinosaur who could barely OPS .600.

[jacksonianmarch]

The Yankees are facing a problem we'll see with Pedroia, Napoli and Victorino. When players put their bodies on the line for enough years (refering to Nap at Catcher), it takes a toll, and they start to decline. Could they all see career averages again? Absolutely, but the odds are not great. The Yankee lineup is made entirely of those kinds of players.

 

But we aren't at the ages that Napoli and Victorino are at. McCann, Ellsbury, Gardner, and Drew are 31. Headley is 30. Gregorius is 25. 2/3 of our lineup is 31 or younger. It isn't like we're all 35.

[Spudboy]

And we forgot the best part. No 581ABs from a dinosaur who could barely OPS .600.

 

I'm trying to figure out which dinosaur.

 

 

Who, Suzuki?

[jacksonianmarch]

Jeter

[Spudboy]

Jeter

 

Lol.

 

I forgot!!!!!!

[Bellhorn04]

It's the time for optimism for both Red Sox and Yankee fans. There is room for upticks everywhere you look.

[sk7326]

a700, the problem with ARod is that the $61 mil is sunk cost. Cut him or keep him, he is getting that money. The money the Yankees are trying to avoid paying are the incentives. I thought they'd cut him before he could reach them, but it seems they are going to go the legal route and say the incentives were only to be paid out should he not have cheated to get there. Regardless, I don't think the Yankees win that argument.

 

There are a few reasons I am optimistic about this offense.

 

#1- they couldn't all suck again. Let's go down the list...

Ellsbury had his second highest HR total, yes. But he also had his lowest full season OPS since his rookie year. He just turned 31, he isn't over the hill as of yet. I bet he has a little less power, a higher BA and OBP and more steals for his second season in the Bronx

 

Gardner set a career high in HR too, but he also had a lower OPS than the season before and didn't steal as much. He is finally healthy after a wrist and core injury really limited him the last few years. I expect less HR, a higher OBP and more steals

 

McCann had a MISERABLE year in the Bronx. Yes, he led the team in HR, but he had an OPS over 100 points below career norms and a BA 40 points off his career pace. He's also 31, he isn't going to be as bad as he was last yr

 

Teixeira finally has a contingency. We have found that a healthy and rested Tex can mash. He was overworked as the season wore on, and without a viable backup, he crumbled. Jones and ARod around should keep him around 110-120 games without having to play 5-6 games in a row and keeping him fresh. I expect him to hit around .240/.340/.450 or so. Not great, but solid nonetheless

 

Over 1000ABs were made by Kelly Johnson, Alfonso Soriano, Ichiro Suzuki, and Brian Roberts mostly because we had no depth.

 

Beltran had a correctable problem repaired and we should see him back to his new baseline. Not expecting .300 hitting Beltran to walk through the door, but .703OPS Beltran likely isn't either

 

Optimism is great ...

 

What is funny is that I think you both overrate the quality of Ellsbury's season and overrate the upside. What is funny about Ells' career is that in his Boston incarnation, there wasn't a lot of in between. He has either been a fairly disposable starter (above replacement level but still mostly empty stolen base calories) or one of the league's best players (2011 he was the AL's best position player and last year he was right there among the "non Trout" guys). Last year tracks pretty well with his "mean" season. He sacrificed some OBP for power - which makes sense given his new full time gig at the lefty paradise - and was still an impactful runner. If there is upside mined for Ellsbury it's probably not that much. For what the Yanks paid him it's a good value (the Yankees have a high $$/win after all) but I question the potential for it to be more.

 

McCann's body was older than his age anyway - I'd expect more like this. He was the best catcher on the market, but the red flags were abound. He'll be better - possibly because he couldn't be worse.

[Palodios]

But we aren't at the ages that Napoli and Victorino are at. McCann, Ellsbury, Gardner, and Drew are 31. Headley is 30. Gregorius is 25. 2/3 of our lineup is 31 or younger. It isn't like we're all 35.

 

Tex will be 35. Beltran will be 38. Ellsbury has had two season ending injuries already. McCann has caught 110+ games every year since he was 21 -- his body must be 35 in non-catcher years. The other guys have career OPSes that are average at best.

[Northern Star]

No way Boston wins the division with that pitching. Wildcard maybe...

[sk7326]

No way Boston wins the division with that pitching. Wildcard maybe...

 

That is said with more confidence than the situation warrants. There was nothing predictable about the division the last 2 years, why start now? They might not win the division, but there is nothing about the Sox and the competition which warrants an absolute anything.

[User Name]

No way Boston wins the division with that pitching. Wildcard maybe...

 

You mean with essentially the same type of pitching setup that got the O's to steamroll the East last year? You're right. No chance.

[mvp 78]

There's a chance. They'll be competitive, but will miss Wild Card by 2-3 games imo. Saying there is no chance is pushing it a little.

[Spudboy]

Well if the Sox rotation fails to be solid I am not looking forward to the repeated complaints about how the Sox blew the Lester deal and did not sign a high priced starter "#1".

[iortiz]

Well if the Sox rotation fails to be solid I am not looking forward to the repeated complaints about how the Sox blew the Lester deal and did not sign a high priced starter "#1".

 

Would be worthless talk for sure but put it this way... It only would prove that this strategy was wrong but the good thing would be that finally the FO would not go on the cheap again and balance the rotation with a couple of solid arms as most people were suggesting.

[Kimmi]

No way Boston wins the division with that pitching. Wildcard maybe...

 

 

What other AL East team or teams do you think are better than the Sox?

[Kimmi]

Well if the Sox rotation fails to be solid I am not looking forward to the repeated complaints about how the Sox blew the Lester deal and did not sign a high priced starter "#1".

 

 

Nor am I.

 

As I said before, I think the Sox blew the Lester deal, but I think they recouped nicely. While a #1 would have been nice, I am okay with the rotation as is. If it doesn't work, it doesn't work. Yes, I will be greatly disappointed, but no need for continued complaining. I think the FO did a solid job this offseason.

[Spudboy]

Nor am I.

 

As I said before, I think the Sox blew the Lester deal, but I think they recouped nicely. While a #1 would have been nice, I am okay with the rotation as is. If it doesn't work, it doesn't work. Yes, I will be greatly disappointed, but no need for continued complaining. I think the FO did a solid job this offseason.

 

Stop with the maturity and commons sense.

 

You'll break Talksox!

[seabeachfred]

Nor am I.

 

As I said before, I think the Sox blew the Lester deal, but I think they recouped nicely. While a #1 would have been nice, I am okay with the rotation as is. If it doesn't work, it doesn't work. Yes, I will be greatly disappointed, but no need for continued complaining. I think the FO did a solid job this offseason.

 

Kimmi, for those who haven't complained about the Sox not getting two solid starters along with what they got this winter, you're right.....They have no right to complain if they went along with the program. Those who have complained about not signing these needed pitchers will have every right to gripe, bitch and moan if this thing goes south because they warned about this very questionable move by the front office. I hope none of us have reason to, but if it happens that way there will be a number of us who will and you know one of them.....perhaps two, three or ten.

[jacksonianmarch]

UN?, what bold prediction do you have for who they will acquire? My bold prediction is that Hamels is a Red Sock by the trading deadline