The all inclusive "2015 Predictions" thread

[kreinbihl34]

I actually agree with your main point, and I've gone on record several times here stating the obvious: Analytics and scouting are meant to go hand in hand. And remember that not just particular stats but rather everything (particularly in baseball evaluation) has its flaws. UZR is a great example, as it's just terrible at evaluating SS's and has no real way to measure catcher defense. But the main difference between data and scouting (hence why they compliment each other) is that data can help account for some of the inherent biases present in the human element.

 

Anyways, we agree on the core of the argument, so no reason to keep debating.

 

Seconded.

[sk7326]

It is the reason more than anything Farrell (even with the questions one can have) got extended, and why Maddon, Francona have been such desirable managers (and why someone like Gabe Kapler seemed so sensible on TV compared to Joe Morgan). Understanding both the old timey baseball things as well as the analytics and being able to work with them both. It is a hard skill set to find these days. And certainly bridging the gap between the analytics types and players is key for success with this stuff.

[Kimmi]

I have been working for 30 years as an attorney for a Company that was a NY institution for more than 130 years before the U.S. government declared it to be a Systemically Important Financial Institution (aka Too Big to Fail). Of course, you would give more weight to the Juggernaut from a third world country who works out of an internet cafe. LOL!!

 

What I have shared is not merely anecdotal. Of course, we use business analytics, and they are necessary to compete, but the differentiating factor for successful companies is human capital. I"ll paraphrase the statement of our past chairman and CEO who took us public in 2000 after coming to us from Paine Webber. When asked what he knew about running a life insurance company, he said "you need a sales force and an actuary, .... and you can rent the actuary." In our business, the actuary is the epitome of analytics. When that CEO retired from our Company, he was hired by the U.S. Government to save AIG -- the failure of which would have devastated many European banks and economies.

 

 

Why do I give more weight to the Juggernaut? Well, for one, because he's a freaking juggernaut! And for two, because I agree with what he says and his posts support my argument.

 

I'm not trying to say that you don't know what you're talking about. I'm sure that what you say is true for your experiences. I'm also sure that what User Name says is true for his experiences. The point remains, just because something hasn't worked for you company doens't mean that we should trash the whole concept for MLB. For baseball, the incorporation of analytics and technology have been successful.

[Kimmi]

We are just talking about relative importance. You would emphasize a different aspect than I would, but both things are necessary to run a successful team or any business. Unlike yourself, others mistakenly think I am making an either/or argument. I am not, but yet they do. Lol!

 

 

I think we fundamentally agree on more things than it seems.

 

Sometimes, I think you just like to argue. LOL

[a700hitter]

While I can see where you're coming from I don't agree with all your points.

 

The most expensive human capital is the one with the most experience. Like in my line of work, I'm the more technological of the two, but he has 45 years of experience and the know how. He's being paid for the past and I'm there to show him the new tricks. But he also gets paid twice my salary.

 

Any business that is paying for the past is not running their business right or is a union. Experience in certain businesses like mine does get rewarded, but not as a reward for past service. There is a tremendous learning curve and newbies are not hired as they are dead weight for several years. A good employee at my place with 15 years of experience will easily do more than twice the work or someone with 5 years on the job and do it in less time. The veteran gets paid substantially more than the 5 yr person, but a lot less than double. That isn't paying for the past. Edited February 22, 2015 by a700hitter

[a700hitter]

I 've been following this thread and man do I ever feel stupid. Can't imagine how I made it in the real world without the copious amount of analytical technical data that gets used today. I'm not even sure why anyone ever listened to me or my opinion when it came to preparing athletes for competition. Sometimes people still listen. I feel sorry for them.

 

The ones who listen are the smart ones. I am sure that there are others who don't listen who later realize that you actually know something, and then there are those who are convinced that you know nothing and who will continue learning from their mistakes instead of preventing those mistakes by learning from your experience. I call them slow learners.

[a700hitter]

Got that wrong there. It's "I'm not a scientist, I'm not a scientist."

 

And it is preferable to use the phrase "Global Climate Change" especially now when it is so cold. The deniers struggle with science as it is. No way they could ever comprehend how it could be so cold when the climate is warming.

 

But you are not a scientist and neither is Al Gore.

[a700hitter]

Why do I give more weight to the Juggernaut? Well, for one, because he's a freaking juggernaut! And for two, because I agree with what he says and his posts support my argument.

 

I'm not trying to say that you don't know what you're talking about. I'm sure that what you say is true for your experiences. I'm also sure that what User Name says is true for his experiences. The point remains, just because something hasn't worked for you company doens't mean that we should trash the whole concept for MLB. For baseball, the incorporation of analytics and technology have been successful.

 

As big a business as MLB is, my business dwarfs it.

 

Second, you should find a better source to support your arguments.

[a700hitter]

I think we fundamentally agree on more things than it seems.

 

Sometimes, I think you just like to argue. LOL

I just like to challenge conventional thinking. When you challenge commonly accepted notions, people get upset when they realize that many times commonly accepted wisdom is based on a foundation of quicksand. People also get upset when they are told that the commonly accepted wisdom is not a magic bullett. There is also a desire to believe that every bit of new conventional wisdom invalidates everything that went before it. I don't argue just to argue, but I also do not accept a contrary position just because some tells me that conventional wisdom says otherwise.

[cp176]

The sarcasm sure adds a lot to the discussion. Please, give us more of your infinite athlete-building wisdom.

 

 

You are right. It really didn't add much to the conversation. I wasn't really trying to be sarcastic. Just being truthful. Guess I was just lucky to get in and and out at the right time. Now you said you were a consultant - right? What exactly do you do?

Before you get your hackles up, i'm just asking a question. If I ever gave anyone the impression that I had "infinite athlete building wisdom", that wasn't my intent. I had fun doing what I did that's all. I'll admit it you gave me a spanking. I'm sorry I stuck my nose in there. Not my place.

[a700hitter]

You are right. It really didn't add much to the conversation. I wasn't really trying to be sarcastic. Just being truthful. Guess I was just lucky to get in and and out at the right time. Now you said you were a consultant - right? What exactly do you do?

Before you get your hackles up, i'm just asking a question. If I ever gave anyone the impression that I had "infinite athlete building wisdom", that wasn't my intent. I had fun doing what I did that's all. I'll admit it you gave me a spanking. I'm sorry I stuck my nose in there. Not my place.

 

I found your post to be amusing. And maybe I read your intentions incorrectly, but I am pretty sure those were your intentions. You didn't insult anyone or take sides. There is no need to apologize. The balance of world peace is not at stake here on this discussion thread.

[cp176]

I found your post to be amusing. And maybe I read your intentions incorrectly, but I am pretty sure those were your intentions. You didn't insult anyone or take sides. There is no need to apologize. The balance of world peace is not at stake here on this discussion thread.

 

Thanks 700 - You might have me figured out. I have been very lucky in many ways. I do think that this discussion is good and needful. I would never discredit the value and use of technological data, but if I couldn't communicate with someone on a personal basis, I would probably hire someone who had what might appear to be fewer qualifications simply because I am a people person. I have seen many over qualified people become absolute failures because they lacked the ability to simply communicate. You have to pass the most basic of tests - you have to be a good person. How many people have we seen that could have been great in many different fields if they had just been a little bit nicer to people? Same way on any team or in any clubhouse - if you can't get along, you don't belong.

[User Name]

Why do I give more weight to the Juggernaut? Well, for one, because he's a freaking juggernaut! And for two, because I agree with what he says and his posts support my argument.

 

I'm not trying to say that you don't know what you're talking about. I'm sure that what you say is true for your experiences. I'm also sure that what User Name says is true for his experiences. The point remains, just because something hasn't worked for you company doens't mean that we should trash the whole concept for MLB. For baseball, the incorporation of analytics and technology have been successful.

 

Logic? How dare you!

 

We don't like that 'round here.

[a700hitter]

Thanks 700 - You might have me figured out. I have been very lucky in many ways. I do think that this discussion is good and needful. I would never discredit the value and use of technological data, but if I couldn't communicate with someone on a personal basis, I would probably hire someone who had what might appear to be fewer qualifications simply because I am a people person. I have seen many over qualified people become absolute failures because they lacked the ability to simply communicate. You have to pass the most basic of tests - you have to be a good person. How many people have we seen that could have been great in many different fields if they had just been a little bit nicer to people? Same way on any team or in any clubhouse - if you can't get along, you don't belong.

Smart people with character are at the core of any successful business. All the other tools are on the periphery. The tools are available to everyone, except in those rare instances where the tools are developed in-house and are protected as intellectual property. What defines good people talent differs from industry to industry as different skill sets are appropriate for different industries and professions.

[Kimmi]

As big a business as MLB is, my business dwarfs it.

 

Second, you should find a better source to support your arguments.

 

 

User Name seems like a pretty knowledgable guy. So do you. I get that you two don't get along, for whatever reasons, but I'm not trying to take sides here. Both of you have some very good insight to offer, as do all the posters here. If it seems like I'm taking his side, it's only because his opinions seem to be very much in line with mine. It is nothing personal against you. I like you.

[a700hitter]

User Name seems like a pretty knowledgable guy. So do you. I get that you two don't get along, for whatever reasons, but I'm not trying to take sides here. Both of you have some very good insight to offer, as do all the posters here. If it seems like I'm taking his side, it's only because his opinions seem to be very much in line with mine. It is nothing personal against you. I like you.

I like hearing and reading different points of view. It makes me think and helps me learn. You keep the discussion civil and respectful, so it is fun to discuss these matters with you.

[User Name]

Anecdotal evidence is surely the most popular way to support a weak argument.

 

Quoted for truth.

[iortiz]

I'm not complaining about our FO at all. They have made me a happy Sox fan.

 

However, we also can't overlook the fact that the team has missed the playoffs 4 of the last 5 years, and turned in 2 of the worst W-L records since the dark days. There are reasons to question whether we've been trending in the right direction.

What would you do if we missed the POs again? It would have been 5/6. Would you keep the man behind the strategy (not sure what it is)? Some teams are regular contenders because they have a clear strategy beyond the budget and do not win the WS every year but they are regular PO teams. I do not see that in this team. When you have a track record like this 4/5, it suggests me that 2013 was more likely a fluke year (stars aligned) than anything else. How much time would you keep supporting this just because you won a WS? Or what?, is it gonna be a job insurance for the next 3,4,5,10 Y? Edited February 22, 2015 by iortiz

[iortiz]

Anecdotal evidence is surely the most popular way to support a weak argument.

 

mmm... When those anecdotal stories are well documented, they could help you build success stories hence win more customers and support your capabilities of your product/service mostly when you sale intangibles like IT or consulting services.

[sk7326]

What would you do if we missed the POs again? It would have been 5/6. Would you keep the man behind the strategy (not sure what it is)? Some teams are regular contenders because they have a clear strategy beyond the budget and do not win the WS every year but they are regular PO teams. I do not see that in this team. When you have a track record like this 4/5, it suggests me that 2014 was more likely a fluke year (stars aligned) than anything else. How much time would you keep supporting this just because you won a WS? Or what?, is it gonna be a job insurance for the next 3,4,5,10 Y?

 

Except the 4 seasons they missed the playoffs were very very different seasons. Nobody wants to repeat 2012 and 2014. But 2010 and 2011 were still a lot of wins.

[iortiz]

Except the 4 seasons they missed the playoffs were very very different seasons. Nobody wants to repeat 2012 and 2014. But 2010 and 2011 were still a lot of wins.

In the end you missed the PO and the track record is there. What would you do if we missed the POs again?

[Bellhorn04]

The Bobby Valentine year does not count. As for last year, I challenge anyone to tell me truthfully that they knew the offense was going to be as bad as it was. We knew there would be a dropoff from 2013, but it should have been good enough to keep the team in contention. The team that was assembled was good. The abysmal offense was something nobody could have foreseen.

 

I think the organization has to own the W-L records no matter what the reasons. It works the other way too, that is, they deserve full credit for the good years. I too get irritated when someone attributes 2013 to luck.

 

As with the game of baseball itself, the luck part generally evens out.

 

This ownership has been in place 13 seasons, and 3 championships has been a sensational achievement.

[kreinbihl34]

Any business that is paying for the past is not running their business right or is a union. Experience in certain businesses like mine does get rewarded, but not as a reward for past service. There is a tremendous learning curve and newbies are not hired as they are dead weight for several years. A good employee at my place with 15 years of experience will easily do more than twice the work or someone with 5 years on the job and do it in less time. The veteran gets paid substantially more than the 5 yr person, but a lot less than double. That isn't paying for the past.

 

Well that's great for your line of business. Metallurgy is a different animal. A beginning to 5 year vet will probably be making around 60-65k. 15-25 years, depending on the company can range from 100-200k. It's all about knowing the right people. As of right now the last of the "old boys club" is finally exiting out. There's a huge age gap in the field, thanks to the US steel collapse of the 80s and 09 scared alot of my generation off too.

[Spudboy]

But you are not a scientist and neither is Al Gore.

 

No. But My Sister is one of the leading experts on Environment and she knows a s*** ton more than most. So much so that she makes a living traveling the world consulting with countries and industries about the topic. That and she is a Pew Fellow. Maybe she is all wrong but I really doubt it. Her Husband, my Mother, and my Father, have all been or are currently scientists.

 

I grew up in a family of science. I understand most of it.

 

I don't care about Al Gore.

[Spudboy]

Logic? How dare you!

 

We don't like that 'round here.

 

I've been trying to tell her this!!

[a700hitter]

No. But My Sister is one of the leading experts on Environment and she knows a s*** ton more than most. So much so that she makes a living traveling the world consulting with countries and industries about the topic. That and she is a Pew Fellow. Maybe she is all wrong but I really doubt it. Her Husband, my Mother, and my Father, have all been or are currently scientists.

 

I grew up in a family of science. I understand most of it.

 

I don't care about Al Gore.

And when I see real scientists debating the issue, I will listen. My daughter is a scientist too and so is my niece. Unfortunately, science is not as pure as it should be. Outcomes are not always the result of pure methods because scientists have to eat too. Sometimes the person or entity cutting the check has an agenda.

 

Until now, I have not seen real scientists debating the topic with hard evidence. All of the the dire projections are based on models, and the reliability of models can be debated in the scientific community. All of the public discussion that I see and hear comes from politicians or people with business interests. They don't persuade me as they are professional manipulators and propagandists. That doesn't make me a denier. Not trusting politicians just means that I am not a fool.

 

What year did Al Gore start predicting that the oceans would be dead in 10 years? That was 20+ years ago. It reminds me of the old comedians joke about a doctor giving his patient 6 months to live. The patient didn't have the money to pay the doctor's bill so the doctor gave him another 6 months.

Edited February 22, 2015 by a700hitter

[a700hitter]

Well that's great for your line of business. Metallurgy is a different animal. A beginning to 5 year vet will probably be making around 60-65k. 15-25 years, depending on the company can range from 100-200k. It's all about knowing the right people. As of right now the last of the "old boys club" is finally exiting out. There's a huge age gap in the field, thanks to the US steel collapse of the 80s and 09 scared alot of my generation off too.

I think my Dad had a fair bit of knowledge regarding metallurgy. For several years he worked for a business that did electroplating.

[mvp 78]

In the end you missed the PO and the track record is there. What would you do if we missed the POs again?

 

The track record is 1 WS every 4 years. I'm ok with that.

[a700hitter]

The track record is 1 WS every 4 years. I'm ok with that.

I think we would all sign up for that.

[Kimmi]

One known case of the new stuff and scouting going hand in hand is the idea of batting eye - which was less emphasized in scouting because it was seen as a coachable skill. But now that is an important part of the package that is scouted because it is so hard to change.

 

But moreover - the analytics, the technical analysis of results - can't exist in a vacuum. All of the orgs use it to some degree or another, but what separates teams is how you take the information and turn it into actionable stuff, how it comes out in your scouting philosophy and the instructions those guys. It also comes out in on-field tactics. How would it not? It would be waste of money if it didn't.

 

 

Another solid post SK.