The all inclusive "2015 Predictions" thread

[cp176]

My 2015 Red Sox prediction is that the team will see several players take their careers to the next level.

 

The team has so many players that could become borderline all-stars next year. Xander, Mookie, Rodriguez and Owens are highly projectable. Workman is finally getting the chance stay in the pen, where he thrived in a World Series run. Coaches are raving about Castillo.

 

Masterson became much more effective against lefties in 2013 before getting injured. He could see a resurgence. Porcello/Miley/Masterson/Kelly can all benefit from having a solid defense behind them, and the entire staff will love throwing to Vazquez/Hannigan.

 

I don't have stats, and I can't even say which players will start to thrive, but it just seems like the Red Sox will finally start churning out top players again.

 

Good for you! You have made notice of Rodriguez. He has the body type that would indicate some staying power at the big league level. I know nothing about his mental makeup which of course is very important but in terms of raw potential he tops my list of pitching prospects. No one seems to know where he might fit someday. He is only 21 but some suggest he has top of the rotation potential.

[jacksonianmarch]

BSN, you have 84 wins from starters. C'mon man? I have some predictions for you...

 

Baltimore wins the East. I know they lost Cruz, but they add back Wieters and Machado and continue to have a vastly underrated rotation and pen.

Boston flounders slightly below .500 until July 1 when they deal for Cole Hamels and an innings eater to replace Buchholz and Kelly. They go on a tear and make it interesting, eventually missing the playoffs by a game or two

I have a dual prediction for my team...

My prediction, if Tanaka and Pineda make 60 starts is that the Yankees are the #1 wild card. If they do not, the Yankees do not make the playoffs

[User Name]

That's a cop-out Jacko. Make your prediction with some conviction. Do they or don't they make the playoffs?

[seabeachfred]

I don't see how you guys can think that Wade Miley will have a 15-10 record. He has a career record of 38-35 pretty much a .500 pitcher in the National League where he has a pitcher and the number 8 hitter who would be number 9 in the AL. You also have to take into account the pressure that comes with playing in Boston.

 

Remember that song from the late 50's? HIGH HOPES??? Some of our friends here have some very high hopes----and that's not all that bad either. At this time of year hope does spring eternal, and Red Sox fans are very anxious to rid our memories of 2014 as quickly as humanly possible. I saw mvp predict we'd finish third with 86 wins. If that's the case, the AL East is going to be better than most people think because I think that number of wins put whatever team that gets that number to be within two to four wins of the division title.

[jacksonianmarch]

UN?, most years I put one out there and stand behind it. This year, I have no f***ing clue. It is entirely dependent on the health of our fragile duo at the top of the rotation. If they're out there and throw 60 of our games, we're going to the playoffs

[jacksonianmarch]

One prediction I am pretty confident of, obviously assuming good health, is that Eovaldi will outperform Porcello again in FIP. Rothschild is a very good pitching coach who seems to find ways to bring the most out of his pitchers. Last year, he seemed to take on a bunch of reclamation projects and turn them around. I have a feeling he'll take a pretty solid pitcher with insane stuff and have him near his ceiling

[sk7326]

One prediction I am pretty confident of, obviously assuming good health, is that Eovaldi will outperform Porcello again in FIP. Rothschild is a very good pitching coach who seems to find ways to bring the most out of his pitchers. Last year, he seemed to take on a bunch of reclamation projects and turn them around. I have a feeling he'll take a pretty solid pitcher with insane stuff and have him near his ceiling

 

Eovaldi's FIP/xFIP was 3.37/3.78

Porcello was 3.67/3.68

 

So if there was a difference it was pretty small and potentially could be normalized away. I expect a lot from both guys. Yankees had a good offseason with the pitching staff, although the lineup maintains its issues. I am sure the Yankees will be a positive run differential team for the first time since 2012 - whether it translates into more actual wins or not is a bit of a coin flip.

[jacksonianmarch]

sk, I'm not sure we will be. If we get durability from Pineda, Tanaka, and Eovaldi, then we're gonna be good. Our pen is gonna be absolutely dominant, I just hope we name a closer during ST and we don't play around with a rotating closer. I think our offense will actually improve. A full season of Headley and Drew should be a good thing for us and both of them. AROD actually gives us a little flexibility assuming he doesn't implode due to massive bitch tittiness. We also have options when the horse goes to the glue factory (Tex). ARod and Jones can play the position and Roller is ready in the minors. I like our position player depth for the first time in a long time. But for the first time in a long time, our rotational depth is abysmal. We have 5 starters entering the season, one who doesn't stay healthy (Pineda), one who is apparently healthy but has a potential time bomb in his elbow (Tanaka). We have an old broken down lefty fatass with a chronic knee problem who says he's healthy. We have a lefty who is nothing more than a 5. And we have a young hot shot who is a project. Nova is coming back mid season, which will be a boost, but other than that, we've got a lot of drop off from 6 to 7. And with 6 being down the first three months and with all the potential for DL time in the rest of the rotation, we're only gonna go as far as our top 3 go

[sk7326]

sk, I'm not sure we will be. If we get durability from Pineda, Tanaka, and Eovaldi, then we're gonna be good. Our pen is gonna be absolutely dominant, I just hope we name a closer during ST and we don't play around with a rotating closer. I think our offense will actually improve. A full season of Headley and Drew should be a good thing for us and both of them. AROD actually gives us a little flexibility assuming he doesn't implode due to massive bitch tittiness. We also have options when the horse goes to the glue factory (Tex). ARod and Jones can play the position and Roller is ready in the minors. I like our position player depth for the first time in a long time. But for the first time in a long time, our rotational depth is abysmal. We have 5 starters entering the season, one who doesn't stay healthy (Pineda), one who is apparently healthy but has a potential time bomb in his elbow (Tanaka). We have an old broken down lefty fatass with a chronic knee problem who says he's healthy. We have a lefty who is nothing more than a 5. And we have a young hot shot who is a project. Nova is coming back mid season, which will be a boost, but other than that, we've got a lot of drop off from 6 to 7. And with 6 being down the first three months and with all the potential for DL time in the rest of the rotation, we're only gonna go as far as our top 3 go

 

Sabbathia is key. He is not going to be the league's best pitcher again (which he has been before, and the Yankees got a taste of it before the baffling extension). But if he can give them 180+ competitive innings, that will help. The last 3 seasons the AL East was 100% unpredictable, and it still remains. If you say you know who will finish 1st and 5th, you are deluding yourself. After all, Boston had the most theoretical improvement (headlines), Yankees helped the pitching staff, Toronto got the best player moved this offseason (Donaldson), Tampa still has a lot of talent and Baltimore lapped the division last year so have they really lost all that much to the rest?

[Bellhorn04]

Sabbathia is key. He is not going to be the league's best pitcher again (which he has been before, and the Yankees got a taste of it before the baffling extension).

 

Why 'baffling' extension, sk?

[Spudboy]

What exactly was Tubbie's extension?

 

Hasn't he had some productive time at the beginning of it?

 

Anyway, it sure looks bad for the Yankees now.

[Bellhorn04]

The extension was triggered by the opt-out that kicked in after 3 years - 3 very good years by Sabathia. It was the opt-out itself that was deadly.

[sk7326]

The extension was triggered by the opt-out that kicked in after 3 years - 3 very good years by Sabathia. It was the opt-out itself that was deadly.

 

Right, the opt-out which set up a real albatross scenario. Sabbathia was arguable the AL's best pitcher before then - but definitely wandering into the deep water performance wise for a guy who had as many miles as he had.

[BSN07]

Yankees Predictions,

 

Ellsbury rebounds for a good season, Tanaka needs TJS by June. CC continues his slide and misses time because of his knee, Gardner does his usual, Beltran produces with bat but shows his age int he field, Tex manages 130 games with decent numbers, the new SS is great in the field but terrible at the plate causing fans to call for his head, Drew doesn't transition well to full time 2B, McCann rebounds but still doesn't live up to expectations, I think Headley has the best all around offensive year and his resigning will be a big positive, Yanks BP is lights out on the back end, Pineda doesn't crack 200 IP but has a good year, the kid with the big WHIP the got from the Marlins gets pummeled.

 

The there is Arod. I have no idea how they play this thing out. I can see them using him at DH, 1B and 3B in a pinch, I can see them letting him rot in the bench and hope he decides to leave, and I can see them figuring out some kind of buyout. In the end I think he's going to be a distraction for the team and with the Captain gone I think it has a bad impact on the Yankees in 2015. But they have the talent to compete if all their ? come through. I don't see that as likely tho.

 

After missing the playoffs 3 years running I expect them to do some major thing in the off season. I'm not really sure what because there is so much dead money on the roster for the next couple years.

[a700hitter]

Yankees Predictions,

 

Ellsbury rebounds for a good season, Tanaka needs TJS by June. CC continues his slide and misses time because of his knee, Gardner does his usual, Beltran produces with bat but shows his age int he field, Tex manages 130 games with decent numbers, the new SS is great in the field but terrible at the plate causing fans to call for his head, Drew doesn't transition well to full time 2B, McCann rebounds but still doesn't live up to expectations, I think Headley has the best all around offensive year and his resigning will be a big positive, Yanks BP is lights out on the back end, Pineda doesn't crack 200 IP but has a good year, the kid with the big WHIP the got from the Marlins gets pummeled.

 

The there is Arod. I have no idea how they play this thing out. I can see them using him at DH, 1B and 3B in a pinch, I can see them letting him rot in the bench and hope he decides to leave, and I can see them figuring out some kind of buyout. In the end I think he's going to be a distraction for the team and with the Captain gone I think it has a bad impact on the Yankees in 2015. But they have the talent to compete if all their ? come through. I don't see that as likely tho.

 

After missing the playoffs 3 years running I expect them to do some major thing in the off season. I'm not really sure what because there is so much dead money on the roster for the next couple years.

The stabilizing factor on that team for so long was having that big hammer at the back of the bullpen. They will find that consistency in a post-Mo world is ellusive.

[sk7326]

The stabilizing factor on that team for so long was having that big hammer at the back of the bullpen. They will find that consistency in a post-Mo world is ellusive.

 

Mo was phenomenal. That said, last year was not shabby - and the bullpen hammer is a big contributing factor to the Yankees somehow getting 170 wins the last 2 seasons while being outscored.

[a700hitter]

Mo was phenomenal. That said, last year was not shabby - and the bullpen hammer is a big contributing factor to the Yankees somehow getting 170 wins the last 2 seasons while being outscored.

It will be hard to be consistent in the back of the pen for 16 seasons like they were with Mo. Last year was a good year, but going forward it will be a bigger challenge than just renewing Mo.

[Kimmi]

Mo was phenomenal. That said, last year was not shabby - and the bullpen hammer is a big contributing factor to the Yankees somehow getting 170 wins the last 2 seasons while being outscored.

 

 

The bullpen hammer may have been a contributing factor to some extent, but I call it mostly luck.

[yankthis]

If Mujica is still around, he will single-handedly give away the 8 or so games that will make the difference between finishing first or fifth in the division.

[Bellhorn04]

If Mujica is still around, he will single-handedly give away the 8 or so games that will make the difference between finishing first or fifth in the division.

 

Yeah, I'm sure they would let him do that.

[jacksonianmarch]

a700, we had years where the only viable pen arm was Mo. Having the hammer back there for 18 years meant that the pen got fixed last because old Mo was there. You don't replace that. But you can improve your pen overall if you add multiple arms capable of shutting down opposing offenses. We have that this yr. we have 4 guys who had wild success last yr in the pen. One will jump out and grab the role. We are also flush with pen talent in AAA and AA. While we don't have old steady back there, we have a better overall pen. My bet is Betances snags the closers role with Miller spelling him in lefty deep projected 9th innings. We also have Carpenter and Warren back there, who were dominant in their own right last yr. I am not worried about the pen. I am very concerned about the health and stability of our rotation

[sk7326]

The bullpen hammer may have been a contributing factor to some extent, but I call it mostly luck.

 

Oh I think luck has a lot to do with it - but I do think bullpen quality helps if you are playing a lot of close games. It's not a magic bullet, but could contribute to more positive results than just coin flips.

[a700hitter]

I am not ready to give a comprehensive set of projections like BSN, but here are the keys to the 2015 season IMO:

 

Starting Pitching: Buchholz is the key. He's in a contract year. If he comes out like he did in 2013, that will set a good tone for the whole rotation.

The second key is Masterson who has to show marked improvement from 2014

 

Defensive Key: Bogaerts needs to take his game to the next level, especially since we have a staff full of groundball pitchers

 

Offensive Key:Victorino and Castillo. I expect Hanley and Papi and Sandoval to do what they always do, but we need some catalysts. We need 130-140 games from Victorino and Castillo needs to produce. He can't be Bradley 2.0.

[sk7326]

Predicted Depth Chart: I have not looked enough at the pitching staff, so I will defer on that. But assuming we carry a 12 man staff ... the 13 regulars

 

C: Vasquez, Hannigan

1B: Napoli, Craig

2B: Pedroia

3B: Sandoval, Holt

SS: Bogaerts

LF: Ramirez

CF: Betts

RF: Victorino, Nava

DH: Ortiz

 

Obviously much can change ... and I expect it will

[cp176]

Predicted Depth Chart: I have not looked enough at the pitching staff, so I will defer on that. But assuming we carry a 12 man staff ... the 13 regulars

 

C: Vasquez, Hannigan

1B: Napoli, Craig

2B: Pedroia

3B: Sandoval, Holt

SS: Bogaerts

LF: Ramirez

CF: Betts

RF: Victorino, Nava

DH: Ortiz

 

Obviously much can change ... and I expect it will

 

Odd man out is the million dollar boy who nobody really knows much about. If everybody is healthy, that would be my outfield.

[sk7326]

Odd man out is the million dollar boy who nobody really knows much about. If everybody is healthy, that would be my outfield.

 

I am pragmatic here - when in doubt, the odd man out is the one with minor league options. Victorino and HanRam are sufficiently risky healthwise that Castillo will get his chance.

[a700hitter]

I am pragmatic here - when in doubt, the odd man out is the one with minor league options. Victorino and HanRam are sufficiently risky healthwise that Castillo will get his chance.

That's a hefty salary in AAA. I don't see them doing it. I think it is more likely that Mookie goes to AAA. I am not saying that I favor that, but that's the way I see it going... or Nava.

[Spudboy]

Nava has no options left.

 

He seems to be on the bubble each year now.

 

I'm of the opinion that untill Castillo proves that he can play well consistently in AAA that Betts should be in front of him regardless of the money spent on the guy.

[sk7326]

That's a hefty salary in AAA. I don't see them doing it. I think it is more likely that Mookie goes to AAA. I am not saying that I favor that, but that's the way I see it going... or Nava.

 

I don't think he's at AAA for long - but the glut of OF needs to be solved, and putting him or Betts down is the simplest move that doesn't impact the 40. And if you want a baseball reason, nothing Castillo has done warrants bumping Betts.

[Spudboy]

I don't think he's at AAA for long - but the glut of OF needs to be solved, and putting him or Betts down is the simplest move that doesn't impact the 40. And if you want a baseball reason, nothing Castillo has done warrants bumping Betts.

 

Exactly.