The all inclusive "2015 Predictions" thread

[wyo-sox]

Not sure of my predictions, but 2015 is off to a rough start. I got served with a stupid traffic court subpoena today for April 6th at 1pm (3 eastern)!

[yankthis]

I wouldn't bet 25 cents on the Red Sox to finish any better than third in the division this year. 2015 is the juncture at which the AL East isn't what it used to be. Baltimore should win the division just by virtue of simply having their s*** somewhat together; they aren't going to need to steamroll over anyone. Blue Jays should be good enough for second. Tampa is a wild card; they could challenge for the division lead or they could trail the pack by 20. Red Sox and Yankees are a f***ing mess. Sure, the Sox have a few core players that can be counted on to do what they do best, but every other team does too; four guys can't play 8 positions.

[User Name]

There's a difference between realistic and outright pessimist. You're a good example of the latter.

[mvp 78]

Or he's so poor that he couldn't afford to lose 25 cents.

 

Spare change ma'am?

[mvp 78]

The only problem is the 4 guys to play 8 positions thing. The offense is on paper going mash and mash. The players that won't hit as well (Pedroia, CV, Vic) play excellent defense. Complain about the pitching all you want, but I have a hard time understanding what anyone's issue with the lineup will be.

[sk7326]

I wouldn't bet 25 cents on the Red Sox to finish any better than third in the division this year. 2015 is the juncture at which the AL East isn't what it used to be. Baltimore should win the division just by virtue of simply having their s*** somewhat together; they aren't going to need to steamroll over anyone. Blue Jays should be good enough for second. Tampa is a wild card; they could challenge for the division lead or they could trail the pack by 20. Red Sox and Yankees are a f***ing mess. Sure, the Sox have a few core players that can be counted on to do what they do best, but every other team does too; four guys can't play 8 positions.

 

Baltimore got worse. Andrew Miller fwiw walked, Markakis (warts and all, he started) left and even if you did not think Nelson Cruz would repeat his 2014, they still did not replace that pop. Showalter is a master with platoons, and he'll have to be.

 

Tampa got worse, although they are always dependent on the children - but the crop of kids looks less promising now than say the 2008-9 classes.

 

Yankees, Sox and Jays got better, but how much is questionable. The Yankees for instance got better but it might not result in actual wins (considering the last two years they had the fundamentals of a below .500 team).

[Palodios]

Baltimore has several core players in free agent years. Matt Wieters, Chris Davis, Wei-yen Chen, and to a lesser extent Tommy Hunter, Darren O'Day, and Bud Norris. I see them trying to get value on those guys at the deadline if they're not ahead.

[Kimmi]

Baltimore got worse. Andrew Miller fwiw walked, Markakis (warts and all, he started) left and even if you did not think Nelson Cruz would repeat his 2014, they still did not replace that pop. Showalter is a master with platoons, and he'll have to be.

 

Tampa got worse, although they are always dependent on the children - but the crop of kids looks less promising now than say the 2008-9 classes.

 

Yankees, Sox and Jays got better, but how much is questionable. The Yankees for instance got better but it might not result in actual wins (considering the last two years they had the fundamentals of a below .500 team).

 

 

One thing I like about this year's team over last year's team is the depth. I was reading an article which projected team-wide depth. The Sox are projected to have 24 players contribute at least one win this season, more than any other team. In comparison, the 2014 team had 14 players who contributed at least one win, and the 2013 team had 19 such players.

 

Season long success is not always about the all-star slugger or the ace, but rather how well-equipped the team is to deal with the inevitable injuries or underperformances.

[Bellhorn04]

Sox fans should be expecting the unexpected by now. We've had 4 straight seasons of surprising or shocking final results.

 

2011 - 5-10 wins worse than expected

2012 - 15-20 wins worse than expected

2013 - 10-15 wins better than expected

2014 - 15-20 wins worse than expected

 

Hopefully the law of averages is on our side this year.

Edited February 19, 2015 by Bellhorn04

[yankthis]

"Depth" talk is for teams that aren't fielding the cream of the crop. Other teams have "depth" too. And other teams have the cream of the crop that Boston booted. You can't let the likes of Lester and Lackey go both at the same time and not see a negative impact, unless you're replacing them with players of equal caliber.

[User Name]

....or you can upgrade other areas and mitigate the impact. We get it, you want to complain and let us know you think the team isn' that good, but at least be logical about it.

[Kimmi]

"Depth" talk is for teams that aren't fielding the cream of the crop. Other teams have "depth" too. And other teams have the cream of the crop that Boston booted. You can't let the likes of Lester and Lackey go both at the same time and not see a negative impact, unless you're replacing them with players of equal caliber.

 

 

All teams have depth. Not all teams have quality in that depth. A team can field the cream of the crop, but if that cream gets injured or underperforms and there are no viable backup options, that team is likely in trouble. We may not have an 8 WAR superstar on our team, but winning is not always about the all-stars. You need consistent contributions from everyone on the roster, including the depth guys. The Sox are set up that way.

[User Name]

See: 2013 Red Sox. That superstar-less team didn't accomplish much, did it?

[wyo-sox]

OK, I'll predict the Sox win the division. Napoli and Victorino have all star seasons offensively. Pedroia comes out swinging, has a great April with the bat. Ortiz has another solid year of HR's. JBJ gets traded soon. Koji will not be as solid as we need and the closer role will take time to figure out. Of our pitching staff, one will become useless, and two will look like aces through most of the year. I'm not predicting who, but just guessing how I think averages will work out.

[User Name]

Reports indicate that the Braves are very much interested in JBJ, mind you.

[BSN07]

All teams have depth. Not all teams have quality in that depth. A team can field the cream of the crop, but if that cream gets injured or underperforms and there are no viable backup options, that team is likely in trouble. We may not have an 8 WAR superstar on our team, but winning is not always about the all-stars. You need consistent contributions from everyone on the roster, including the depth guys. The Sox are set up that way.

 

You just described this seasons Yanks squad.

[Palodios]

Reports indicate that the Braves are very much interested in JBJ, mind you.

 

The Braves are in rebuild mode. I doubt they are offering the Red Sox anything worthwhile.

[User Name]

The Braves are in rebuild mode. I doubt they are offering the Red Sox anything worthwhile.

 

What they could offer are prospects who could be flipped in another deal.

[Kimmi]

See: 2013 Red Sox. That superstar-less team didn't accomplish much, did it?

 

 

Exactly. Think of the contributions we got from so many different players. It seemed like it was someone different stepping up and getting it done every night. That team did not have the proverbial black hole that can sink any team.

[Kimmi]

You just described this seasons Yanks squad.

 

 

LOL I think the Yankees offense (or lack thereof) will be their downfall this season, but the Yankees fans that I have spoken to seem to be rather pleased with their depth.

[Palodios]

What they could offer are prospects who could be flipped in another deal.

 

Sure, but rebuilding teams don't generally trade top prospects -- especially the kind Amaro wants.

[User Name]

Sure, but rebuilding teams don't generally trade top prospects -- especially the kind Amaro wants.

 

....but is not going to get.

[a700hitter]

From MLB Trade Rumors:

 

Prompted in part by trade rumors surrounding Cole Hamels and also by the recent release of multiple top prospects lists, Dave Cameron of Fangraphs/FOX Sports examined the reasons behind the perceived over-valuing of prospects. As Cameron notes, roughly 70 percent of all prospects to have appeared in Baseball America’s Top 100 lists over the years have failed to produce meaningful careers (that isn’t a knock on BA — rather, just an illustration of the difficulty in projecting minor leaguers). Despite that high failure rate, teams have been reluctant to part with two premium prospects to acquire Cole Hamels. However, Cameron theorizes that the unwillingness to part with prospects isn’t due to overvaluing prospects, but rather to teams looking past the longstanding narrative of “proven veterans” to realize that veteran players carry significant risk as well. Cameron studied the 100 best players from 2009-11 (weighting recent performance more heavily) and looked at the output of those players from 2012-14. Even some of the game’s best talents from that period — Roy Halladay, Dan Haren, Mark Teixeira, B.J. Upton and many more — have quickly seen their skills erode or, in Halladay’s case, been forced out of the game. Twenty-five of the 100 players Cameron looked at have failed to outproduce the same line that Cameron set to determine a busted prospect in his study, while another 34 were merely average Major Leaguers.

 

[BSN07]

The Braves are in rebuild mode. I doubt they are offering the Red Sox anything worthwhile.

 

JBJ in a package for Kimbrel could make sense. They don't really need an expensive closer while rebuilding.

[BSN07]

From MLB Trade Rumors:

 

There are no guarantees in baseball lol

[Kimmi]

I've been reading some more about "neuroscouting", something that first came up in 2011, I believe, and seems to be gaining in popularity amongst team FOs. It will be interesting to see the data on this in a few years, and how well, if at all, a high score in neuroscouting correlates to MLB success. Betts rates very high in this department.

[Ogden]

 

The Yankees neuroscout.

 

 

http://thumbs.dreamstime.com/x/fortune-teller-crystal-ball-9475083.jpg

[sk7326]

I've been reading some more about "neuroscouting", something that first came up in 2011, I believe, and seems to be gaining in popularity amongst team FOs. It will be interesting to see the data on this in a few years, and how well, if at all, a high score in neuroscouting correlates to MLB success. Betts rates very high in this department.

 

It is more information - which is never bad. With analytics, the annoying thing is the fans who seem to think it's eye test or numbers - when they are meant to complement each other. Front offices (Philadelphia) who don't like the other data so much are doing themselves a disservice.

[a700hitter]

Neuroscouting? -- I.e. The flavor of the day. It is a way for baseball executives to try to differentiate themselves from the pack while playing barely .500 ball and missing the playoffs. In my 30 years of business I have seen many new Wharton/Harvard MBA business analytics and management tools with catchy names and acronyms come and go.

 

They almost never improve performance or efficiency, except on a very temporary basis. The only people who profit from these ideas are the consultants who sell it to the exceutives. The consultants, not coincidently, are the same people that publish books on this stuff, and the books are profitable solely because they have a captive market -- their MBA students. It's mumbo jumbo.

Edited February 20, 2015 by a700hitter

[Kimmi]

 

The Yankees neuroscout.

 

http://thumbs.dreamstime.com/x/fortune-teller-crystal-ball-9475083.jpg

 

 

LOL Ogden. Sometimes, you have to wonder.