Red Sox Pre-Offseason Mega Thread

[moonslav59]

6 hours ago, Randy Red Sox said:

name the bats you think we should sign this offseason.

B Lowe or Suzuki

I would not sign Arozarena or Bichette.

[moonslav59]

6 hours ago, Randy Red Sox said:

neither of them should classify as anything close to untouchable.

Soagard, White and Gasper are replaceable, but since their trade value is not high, keeping them is a good idea. I just wouldn't call them must keeps.

Sogard> 1B Romy, Casas, Mead, 2B Seigler, Monasterio, Cheng, Story/Arias, 3B Monasterio, Cheng, Eaton

Gasper> 1B Sogard, Romy, Casas, Mead, C Wong, Jo Garcia, DH Yoshida, Casas/Sogard-Jones/Romy

White> Jones is also out of options, Duran, Campbell, Eaton, Ward 

 

[drewski6]

6 hours ago, Randy Red Sox said:

name the bats you think we should sign this offseason.

While its true there is a shortage of FA bats this go-round, it is important that we examine why, and how this impacts other decisions - so we dont continue to fall into the trap of throwing up our arms and saying "what did you want the front office to do?"

Ive seen that question posed multiple times by those who believe Breslow is exec of the year (not you, Randy).  But honestly (and this isnt directed at you) - Im sick of seeing the excuse.

Im not saying we can just wish better free agents, Im not even necessarily saying we can go for trade for bats...What Im focused on is how much the landscape has changed in just the last 5 years.

Because Ive heard some try to convince me that WAR per dollar spent is king.  And I think its a great metric, but I think we need to accept the new reality, and understand why this may not be as good of a north star as it was just a few short years ago.

See, the premise of chasing highest WAR you can for as little spent as possible is to create a foundation of  relatively cheap players, who are good value for their money, and this creates budget room to add around those guys, and you can even overpay a bit there since you have the core of affordable guys.

But one recent change that really gets in the way of this is that its never been harder to turn budget room into actual difference makers, ESPECIALLY with the bat. Joe Brady and I have debated this.  I have told him that if you try to build a base through value guys (acknowledging that up until recently, this was an excellent strategy) - you create the budget room to get elite guys, but often there are no elite guys to get especially on the offensive side of the ball.

And Joe countered will then Id have 5 aces (he said licking his chops).  But thats just pulling aces out of 0-0 games in the fourth inning when playoffs come around.  And we literally just saw that movie play out.

Im not sure how to fix it now.  Its going to be a challenge.  BUt its a challenge of their own making by not signing Bregman and Alonso.  And now I dont know how you go get the bats, but I do know that trying to win playoff games 2-1, or 1-0 is a near impossible task. Because you need elite starters, you need them to stay healthy. You need elite relievers. You need elite defense.  And its just not realistic to expect our run prevention side (Starters, relievers, good defense) to put up 0s game after game all the way through the playoffs.

I do still think its a good strategy for getting to the playoffs, but the playoffs are not as much of a crapshoot as those who want to chase sustainability want it to be.  Its not random that we are getting bounced out of the first round, 2 years running.  This is another key recent change.  The league has become quite top heavy.  You are not going to beat all-star teams by trying to put value at every position.  You are not going to beat Jordan and Pippen by having 5 above average guys.  Having solid , value guys will help you get to the playoffs, but Im thinking unless we have a fundamental philosophical reset - we will just continue to come up short.  

Beat up on most teams, make playoffs, lose to the top teams.  Like I always say, if you want to know what direction baseball, hockey and football are moving, watch the NBA.  Its always a little bit ahead with modernization.  ANd in the NBA , super teams came first. But now theyve come to baseball too.  And your just not going to beat a super team with an offense thats made to be as efficient as possible to save as much budget as possible for pitching.

Things change fast, and I think we are a bit stuck right now because we havent fully embraced these recent trends.

[drewski6]

SO when those of you were high fiving about getting something from Betts before he hit FA, you were wrong.  When those of you who were high fiving that we didnt get Bregman and ALonso, you were wrong.  Those of you who were high fiving that we "saved money" because Devers was "just a DH" - you were wrong (I understand that the chemistry/personality complicated that one).

You just cant be overly focused on economical position players right now.  Because starting pitching is 1/3 of 1/2 of the game, relief pitching is 1/3 of 1/2 of the game, positional player defense is 1/3 of 1/2 of the game.  But scoring runs is half the game. The full other half.  And the fact that we have gone economical here, and have prioritized defense and pitching.....Is why we are coming up short.

We need a philosophical reset.  BATS FIRST

[drewski6]

I think a lot of what you see on sports forums, is you have these really advanced minds for those sports - who can see things that maybe casual fans cant see, so they tend to underrate the things that casual fans can see.

For example , if you jump over to a hockey forum, you will prob see a bunch of hockey minds talking about the little things that make a difference.  I love player x, sure the masses dont love him, because he doesnt score a lot of goals, but he always gets back on defense, always wins faceoffs.....And sure, thats a good observation - but you know what is HUGE in hockey - scoring goals.  But you have this situation where the highly intelligent hockey minds poo-poo that because everyone knows that goals are great but they want to focus on and talk about the stuff that only they can see.

I think some of that applies to baseball as well.  So like when people tell me, offense is fun but all the real baseball folks know that pitching and defense are what win....First of all, its condescending.  Second of all, it isnt true.  And I think its the same trap that Im talking about in hockey forums.  

Guys like Durbin? Sure hes cheap, and sure he will stay 20 bags, and sure hes great defensively.  And if you are a guy who just loves dirty jerseys and defense, you'll love this guy.  And hes fine.  BUt you just cant have too many guys like that if you want to beat the super teams. 

So now you have a situation where many baseball minds poo-poo offense first philosophy because "thats for casual fans and im not a casual."

But Im seeing with my own eyes this break down.  Starting pitching is not winning championships when its getting pulled in the fourth inning of 0-0 games.  

[Old Red]

6 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

SO when those of you were high fiving about getting something from Betts before he hit FA, you were wrong.  When those of you who were high fiving that we didnt get Bregman and ALonso, you were wrong.  Those of you who were high fiving that we "saved money" because Devers was "just a DH" - you were wrong (I understand that the chemistry/personality complicated that one).

You just cant be overly focused on economical position players right now.  Because starting pitching is 1/3 of 1/2 of the game, relief pitching is 1/3 of 1/2 of the game, positional player defense is 1/3 of 1/2 of the game.  But scoring runs is half the game. The full other half.  And the fact that we have gone economical here, and have prioritized defense and pitching.....Is why we are coming up short.

We need a philosophical reset.  BATS FIRST

Well said. Both Alonso, and Schwaber were out there last, but the Red Sox didn’t want to spend the money. Schwaber probably was going back to Philly, but Alonso was definitely in play except the Red Sox decided to play hard ball, and lowball with him. P&P players got you into the postseason, but only for a failed cameo appearance. 

[NHNative]

Simple--we need more home runs in 27. How do we get em?

[Old Red]

2 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

I think a lot of what you see on sports forums, is you have these really advanced minds for those sports - who can see things that maybe casual fans cant see, so they tend to underrate the things that casual fans can see.

For example , if you jump over to a hockey forum, you will prob see a bunch of hockey minds talking about the little things that make a difference.  I love player x, sure the masses dont love him, because he doesnt score a lot of goals, but he always gets back on defense, always wins faceoffs.....And sure, thats a good observation - but you know what is HUGE in hockey - scoring goals.  But you have this situation where the highly intelligent hockey minds poo-poo that because everyone knows that goals are great but they want to focus on and talk about the stuff that only they can see.

I think some of that applies to baseball as well.  So like when people tell me, offense is fun but all the real baseball folks know that pitching and defense are what win....First of all, its condescending.  Second of all, it isnt true.  And I think its the same trap that Im talking about in hockey forums.  

Guys like Durbin? Sure hes cheap, and sure he will stay 20 bags, and sure hes great defensively.  And if you are a guy who just loves dirty jerseys and defense, you'll love this guy.  And hes fine.  BUt you just cant have too many guys like that if you want to beat the super teams. 

So now you have a situation where many baseball minds poo-poo offense first philosophy because "thats for casual fans and im not a casual."

But Im seeing with my own eyes this break down.  Starting pitching is not winning championships when its getting pulled in the fourth inning of 0-0 games.  

Predetermined  playbooks on when to take a starting pitcher out, and go with someone not once, but twice who hasn’t pitched good at all for the last two weeks you deserved to loose.

[NHNative]

Pretty good article..

https://www.si.com/mlb/red-sox/onsi/red-sox-s-projected-2027-opening-day-lineup-boston-finally-adds-power-pat3

[NHNative]

3 minutes ago, Old Red said:

Predetermined  playbooks on when to take a starting pitcher out, and go with someone not once, but twice who hasn’t pitched good at all for the last two weeks you deserved to loose.

Still can't wrap my head around that mess.

[mvp 78]

19 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

This doesn't look like a big step in the right direction?

Anthony 8 yrs

Crochet 5 yrs

Tolle 5 yrs

Rafaela 5 yrs

Durbin 5 yrs

Suarez 5 yrs

Bennett 5 yrs

Bello 4 yrs

Miller 4 yrs

Abreu 3 yrs

Mead 3 yrs

9 good players at 4+ years

11 good at 3+

This is a major shift from even Theo & DD's eras. Some of these players listed have already been on this team for 2-4 years.

Theo won 2 WS. Breslow isn't close to that TBH.

[mvp 78]

14 hours ago, Nick said:

We have $53M to spend.

Gray and Sandoval gone.

Whitlock is technically FA. Club option are $8.25M for 2027 and $10.5M for 2028, Doesn't it seem high?

CC covered by arbitration players Adley and Wong.

1B covered by Contreras

2B covered by Mead/Arias

SS covered by Trevor/Arias

3B covered by Durbin

LF covered by Anthony

CF covered by Rafaela

RF covered by Abreu

DH covered by Yoshida

SP Crochet, Suarez, Tolle, Bennett, Bello

I know its slim pickings but shouldn't we be able to trade for a 30 HR guy for $25-30M?

At some point we'll have to sign a Schwarber ($150M/5yrs) or Alfonso ($155M/5yrs) type. 

And perhaps they'll have to bite the bullet like upcoming season. We have $40M in expiring contracts in Yoshida/Story. I would include that in this year's budget/spending knowing it'll be gone in 2028.

So spend $93M. That should get us a bat or two.

 

That $ amount is cheap for Whitlock. He'd get more than that on the open market. 

[drewski6]

Since we fired DD, we have finished an average of 4th place (3.7 is much closer to 4 than 3), and have one playoff series win....In 7 full years.  

If we've had a major shift since DD, can we switch back?

[Old Red]

21 minutes ago, NHNative said:

Still can't wrap my head around that mess.

Bad computers?🤔

[NHNative]

Just now, Old Red said:

Bad computers?🤔

That's pretty close.

[Hitch]

20 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

This doesn't look like a big step in the right direction?

Anthony 8 yrs

Crochet 5 yrs

Tolle 5 yrs

Rafaela 5 yrs

Durbin 5 yrs

Suarez 5 yrs

Bennett 5 yrs

Bello 4 yrs

Miller 4 yrs

Abreu 3 yrs

Mead 3 yrs

9 good players at 4+ years

11 good at 3+

This is a major shift from even Theo & DD's eras. Some of these players listed have already been on this team for 2-4 years.

A step in the right direction maybe, but seeing as we've trade Mookie and Devers, I would say you can rule nothing out. 

[notin]

1 hour ago, NHNative said:

Simple--we need more home runs in 27. How do we get em?

 There won’t be a real trade market until the CBA is resolved, since it can change the financial strategies of some teams.  And even then, the Sox are a tad light on trade bait.

I like Teruaki Sato as a good FA target.  He’s hit 79 HRs in the last two season in the JPCL, and is similar to Murakami.  Just finished his age 27 season.  Hes listed as a 3b/OF, but no idea of his actual defensive skillset.  
 

I do like Tatis as a trade target, but even if SD wants to cut payroll, his contract is actually very good.  In order to trade him, it’s going to take a lot.  BTV gives one equivalent package as Arias, Abreu and Bennett.  Honestly, that’s probably close. Possibly light…

[NHNative]

11 minutes ago, notin said:

 There won’t be a real trade market until the CBA is resolved, since it can change the financial strategies of some teams.  And even then, the Sox are a tad light on trade bait.

I like Teruaki Sato as a good FA target.  He’s hit 79 HRs in the last two season in the JPCL, and is similar to Murakami.  Just finished his age 27 season.  Hes listed as a 3b/OF, but no idea of his actual defensive skillset.  
 

I do like Tatis as a trade target, but even if SD wants to cut payroll, his contract is actually very good.  In order to trade him, it’s going to take a lot.  BTV gives one equivalent package as Arias, Abreu and Bennett.  Honestly, that’s probably close. Possibly light…

The Padres have said he is an untouchable. They ain't gonna let him go.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

2 minutes ago, notin said:

 There won’t be a real trade market until the CBA is resolved, since it can change the financial strategies of some teams.  And even then, the Sox are a tad light on trade bait.

I like Teruaki Sato as a good FA target.  He’s hit 79 HRs in the last two season in the JPCL, and is similar to Murakami.  Just finished his age 27 season.  Hes listed as a 3b/OF, but no idea of his actual defensive skillset.  

Signing a guy like Sato is more likely than trading Arias, unless Elly is coming back.

Blowing BIG bucks longterm on a position player like Alonso or Bregman was always unlikely -- for those of us who concede John Henry really is that character of the same name in Moneyball.

But anyone could've invested a lot less in Murikami or Okamoto and had a 30 home run hitter. Granted, that comes with a lot of Ks, which is why I don't want both and would also go after Arraez, whose contact skills are more rare than longballers.

Then again, look at the White Sox: unbeaten in the playoffs with two 30 home run guys who also have over 400 strikeouts combined this year (unlike Colson M and Moon Attacker, they also have a third 30 HR man, Vargas, who's not a big whiffer).

[notin]

31 minutes ago, NHNative said:

The Padres have said he is an untouchable. They ain't gonna let him go.

That makes sense.  27 years old (Still!!), only signed for 8 more years with some $270mill left.  Contract ends at age 35.

While Abreu/Arias/Bennett is really impressive offer, getting Tatis is a very tall order.  It’s hard to see them walking away from his production and contract.  They probably do want to cut payroll, but Tatis is not that payroll.  Bogaerts? Probably. Cronenworth? Definitely.  Tatis? Makes very little sense to move him and strap yourself with Bogaerts’ and Cronenworth’s deals…

[mvp 78]

 

[drewski6]

18 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

 

Burn

[mvp 78]

 

[mvp 78]

 

[mvp 78]

 

[mvp 78]

To appease some of you:

 

[mvp 78]

The biggest lie ever told:

 

[mvp 78]

 

[mvp 78]

 

[mvp 78]