A Realistic View at the 2026 Red Sox Part II

[drewski6]

12 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

I can support that, but there is no way of telling what Gray going to do or why.

Im not looking forward to his money coming off the books.  Id happily try to bring him back 2 yr deal 25-27 that pushes to 30-32 / yr with incentives and maybe a conditional third year wth a modest buyout.

[drewski6]

1 minute ago, mvp 78 said:

In 05, he came in 2nd. He never was leading the triple crown categories like Yordan. 

He also never played in this era where there are like 3 guys hitting about .300 and a 3.5 ERA is a #3/4 pitcher lol

[mvp 78]

3 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Doesnt White and Jones have good splits against LHP?  Im not sure we need three platoon corner outfileders, but I dont hate it. Im a platoon fan.

The argument goes back to before the season. Grichuk is a better platoon bat than White or Jones. It's not close. 

[drewski6]

I just want to retire the anti-DH slant.

If you hit .400 and 50 HR, I aint letting you play the field.

[mvp 78]

Just now, drewski6 said:

He also never played in this era where there are like 3 guys hitting about .300 and a 3.5 ERA is a #3/4 pitcher lol

What does that have to do with anything? 

[drewski6]

90% of a positional players value is in what the germans call: "das bat"

[mvp 78]

1 minute ago, drewski6 said:

I just want to retire the anti-DH slant.

If you hit .400 and 50 HR, I aint letting you play the field.

I mean, I would have been happy if they signed Alonso to be the DH. 🤷‍♂️

[mvp 78]

1 minute ago, drewski6 said:

90% of a positional players value is in what the germans call: "das bat"

You'll need to come up with your own calc for war then. skiWAR? 

[drewski6]

Just now, mvp 78 said:

What does that have to do with anything? 

What does it have to do with discussing MVP resumes that we are in a pitchers year?  Competition.  

They could give it to a pitcher this year, but pitchers kind of have their own award so in a pitcher year, usually a weaker resume MVP gets it than in a year when there are 50 dudes with OPS north of .900

[drewski6]

3 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

You'll need to come up with your own calc for war then. skiWAR? 

You sure you want that?  Im adding adjusters for catitude and personality and marketability and who I decide to fall in love with any given time.  And what kidn of pets they have at home. And how hot their wife is.  But she cant be an awful person, inner beauty counts.  Humor too.  And clubhouse matters too.  ANd willingness to fight.

If you arent willing to stand and bang, you dont win any skiMVPs.  And if you are under 6'3 , boy are you going to need a resume (but not impossible).

[drewski6]

Owen Hulls projected 2027 skiWAR: Over 9 thousand.
Sean Manea's: 46 (and no, Harmony, this does not mean you can bait and switch in Luis Castillo).

[mvp 78]

3 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

What does it have to do with discussing MVP resumes that we are in a pitchers year?  Competition.  

They could give it to a pitcher this year, but pitchers kind of have their own award so in a pitcher year, usually a weaker resume MVP gets it than in a year when there are 50 dudes with OPS north of .900

A pitcher's year? 

League Average ERA is 4.17.

In Papi's last year it was 4.18. In 2005, it was 4.28. 

[drewski6]

I sat next to a smoking hot gal last time i was at fenway.  she moved her seat to come sit next to me cuz i was yelling funny stuff.  It was a fun night.  BUt she was showing me pictures of Cedanne at a camp and talking about how awesome he was as a person,

So not only is Cedanne a nice guy (which gets bonus points with me) but the fact that he is gave me fodder to keep a chat with an absolute smokeshow going.

So you get bonusSKI WAR for this.  SO I wouldnt hate Cedanne sneaking an MVP.

ANd Yordan? I got sick of hearing "just a DH" so to see a DH win it, would be cool to me.  So I wouldnt hate that either.

I think the moral of the story is that I am not a good choice to put in charge of this stuff.  If somebody had a basset hound and let me pet it, they are getting a lot of MVP points.

[drewski6]

1 minute ago, mvp 78 said:

A pitcher's year? 

League Average ERA is 4.17.

In Papi's last year it was 4.18. In 2005, it was 4.28. 

are we cherry picking years? Are you going to straight face tell me that it doesnt feel like OPS are down from lets say the 1990-2010 average?

It could be my perception and not real but I doubt that.

[mvp 78]

 

[mvp 78]

9 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

are we cherry picking years? Are you going to straight face tell me that it doesnt feel like OPS are down from lets say the 1990-2010 average?

It could be my perception and not real but I doubt that.

ERA is actually up from the last two seasons! 

Why would I average 90-10? There are three completely different versions of baseball in there (pre-steroid era, steroid era and post steroid era) with differing impacts on runs. 

I don't need to state anything more than what I did. You said it was a pitcher's year. I showed Papi's last year and his 05 year when he was 2nd in the MVP. The league ERA was similar to what we have this year. It wouldn't affect Yordan or his MVP votes IMO. 

[UtahSox]

Attempting to be Realistic in terms of health: What lineup does Tracy roll out in NYC for wild card games vs the Yankees this year? 
1-

2-

3-

4-

5-

6-

7-

8-

9-

5 bench guys-

SP Game 1-

SP Game 2-

SP Game 3-

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

3 hours ago, drewski6 said:

I think you can be too valuable to play the field.

That's what she said.

Then she married me, and now I'm in bed with women she works with all the time... except they're on one of her phones, nonstop texting.

But your notion makes sense -- unlike passing on signing Schwarber twice now.

[moonslav59]

9 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

I like Rafaela, but no. He's not having an MVP season. 

5th in AL fWAR is not way behind, but I aree.

Alvarez as a DH hurts his WAR.

NL:

15.3 PCA 7.9+7.4

9.7 Lopez 4.4+5.3

9.5 Turang 4.2+5.3

AL:

11.1 Alvarez 5.6+5.5

10.6 Witt 5.3A+5.3

10.4 McGonigle 4.8+5.6

9.9 Dingler 5.4+4,5

9.4 Rafalea 4.2 +5.2

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, UtahSox said:

Attempting to be Realistic in terms of health: What lineup does Tracy roll out in NYC for wild card games vs the Yankees this year? 
1- Anthony LF

2- Mead 2B

3- Abreu RF

4- Contreras 1B

5- Rutschman C

6- Durbin 3B

7- Yoshida DH

8- Rafaela CF

9- Monasterio -Sogard SS

3 other bench guys- Duran, Seigler, Wong

SP Game 1- Gray

SP Game 2- Tolle

SP Game 3- Suarez

SP Game 4- Bennett

Pinch me.

[moonslav59]

Gotta hope this is just a glitch.

We may really need a boost from the IL All Star Team. (No, not Illinois.)

[moonslav59]

SP:Crochet, Houck, Crawford, Oviedo, Rivera

RP: Whitlock, Kelly, Martinez, Berrios

C: Juan Montero

1B: Casas

2B: Rodgers

SS: Story

3B: IKF

OF: Anthony (a lotta ground to cover by himself)

 

 

[vegasbob]

How is this take ? Crochet will never be back  as a power pitcher but will need to learn to pitch by location and changing speeds.

Further, he will need rotator  cuff surgery before his contract ends.

Lastly, trade Whitlock this winter. His elbow is shot

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Whitlock will be ok. The Sox just flew him back to Transylvania for evaluation by Doctor Ahm Shallcutta.

[Duran Is The Man]

9 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

SP:Crochet, Houck, Crawford, Oviedo, Rivera

RP: Whitlock, Kelly, Martinez, Berrios

C: Juan Montero

1B: Casas

2B: Rodgers

SS: Story

3B: IKF

OF: Anthony (a lotta ground to cover by himself)

 

 

where is Wehardlyknewye' Mead?

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, Duran Is The Man said:

where is Wehardlyknewye' Mead?

DH or LF?

[moonslav59]

Some interesting tidbits...

With about 25% of the season to go, the three top AL teams in run differential are the 3 wild card teams:

+87 NYY (68-54 is second best AL record, though)

+86 DET (amazingly only 60-62 w WC3 slot)

+82 BOS (65-57 is third best AL record)

________________________

The Astors lead the ALW with a -24 run differential and Pete Lambert as their ace.

_________________________

5 AL teams are within 1.5 of the WC3 slot, and none have a run differential better than -32 (CLE.)

_________________________

SEA (57-66) is the 4th worst team in the AL. They are 16-27 since June 24th.

________________________

The NL has 4 teams over .585 win%, while only the Rays are there (.612.) Both leagues have 3 teams below .440

________________________

PHI and AZ are tied for the last WC slot, and nobody else is closer than 3 GB. The NL does have 5 teams "hanging around:"

-3.0 MIA (62-61 is better than DET)

-3.5 STL (61-61 better, too)

-5.0 STL (59-62)

-5.5 PIT & WSH (We did our best to keep these two teams close, as we are 1-3 vs the two and counting.)

_________________________

Sox best and worst records by teams:

6-0 CWS (Division leader)

3-0 LAD (2nd best team in MLB)

3-0 NYM, KCR & LAA

5-2 DET (3rd WC team and second best AL run diff)

_ _ _ _ _ _

2-4 ATL (Division leader & 4th best MLB record)

4-9 TOR (We have kept them in the race almost by ourselves)

1-5 MIN (0.5 GB WC3 thanks to us.)

1-5 HOU (Division leader thanks to us.)

[moonslav59]

Sox OPS+ Leader (with 2025 /Career OPS+)

180+ PAs:

158 Contreras (122/123)

123 Abreu (120/116)

122 Rafaela (99/95)

118 Monasterio (96/109)

110 Yoshida (109/93)

105 Durbin (103/101)

95 Wong (88/42)

73 Duran (107/114)

_ _ _ _ _ _ _

20-179 PAs:

308 Jones (95/74)

102 Sogard (91/85)

101 Seigler (83/44)

101 IKF (82/75)

75 Anthony (126/140)

73 Cheng (47/n/a)

73 Gasper (50/38)

69 Mayer (75/85)

62 Romy (98/128)

61 Eaton (70/105)

55 Story (106/104)

53 Narvaez (82/100)

_________________

Major players doing better than Career and 2025:

Contreras (+38/+37)

Rafaela (+23/+27)

Wong (+7/+53)

Monasterio (+22/+9)

Yoshida (+1/+17)

Abreu (+3/+7)

Durbin (+2/+4)

Players doing worse on both:

Duran (-30/-41)

[notin]

23 hours ago, drewski6 said:

What does it have to do with discussing MVP resumes that we are in a pitchers year?  Competition.  

They could give it to a pitcher this year, but pitchers kind of have their own award so in a pitcher year, usually a weaker resume MVP gets it than in a year when there are 50 dudes with OPS north of .900

Rookies have their own award too, so should rookies not be MVP?

Whether or not pitchers have their own award is immaterial.  The rules for MVP voting explicitly state pitchers are eligible and any writer saying “pitchers shouldn’t be MVP” should have his voting rights stripped…

[moonslav59]

Batters have Silver Slugger Awards, but they seem to not be very high profile, but so what?

I always thought Pedro not winning the MVP, when he put up astounding numbers in a hitting era was a travisty.

Current fWAR leaders:

NL (Looks like a two man race: batter vs bat/arm guy)

7.8 PCA

6.6 Ohtani (3.6 bat/3.0 arm)

5.1 Misiorowski

5.0 C Sanchez

4.6 Sale

4.4 Lopez

4.3 Luzardo

4.2 Turang, Wetherholt & Wood

AL (2-3 man race between all batters)

5.7 Alvarez

5.4 Witt

5.3 Dingle

4.8 McGonigle

4.7 Schlitter

4.5 Cease

4.1 Caminero & Rafaela

_________________

1999-2003 AL fWAR Leaders

41.3 Pedro (No MVP, 1 second, 1 fifth, a 20th & 22nd)

41.2 ARod (1MVP, 2nd, 3rd, 6th & 15th)

33.7 Giambi (1 MVP, 2nd, 5th, 8th & 13th)

28.5 Manny (No MVP, but 3rd, 6th x 2 & 9th x 2)

IRod 6.8 in '99, Suzuki 6.0 in 2001 & Tejada 4.5 in 2002 all won an MVP in this period.

Pedro (11.6) was almost double IRod's fWAR. Highway robbery.

He was lower (5.5) than Suzuki's (6.0) in 2001. This one was okay.

He was nearly 3 fWAR higher than Tejada in 2002. Shoulda been Pedro.

In 2000, Pedro was at 9.4, while Giambi was 7.7. (Giambi went to 9.2 in 2001) Shoulda been Pedro.

2003, Pedro was at 4.9 and ARod 9.2 to Pedro's 7.4, so that one was okay.

Pedro should have had 3 MVP, and maybe one with Montreal (8.5 in '97)or the Mets (6.1 in '05)