A Realistic View at the 2026 Red Sox Part II

[dannycater]

4 minutes ago, Old Red said:

No I was talking how the Red Sox started all this winning when they started hitting more HR, and most of the times with runners on base, and what the record was when they hit HR. I really wasn’t going any deeper than that. The W-L speaks for itself when they hit HR especially during the streak.

they were the solo HR team for a while, and infrequent at that. But definitely more runners on base HRs to go with a ton of solos.

[UtahSox]

26 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Agreed.

They will almost certainly start Story at SS, after he rehabs and plays a few games part time.

The only way Monasterio keeps the job is if he gets his OPS over .800 and doesn't look horrible on D.

I think the Sox feel Story is still good on D- kinda like Devers thinking he was good on D.

Head-scratcher.

Story K rate, swing and miss, and lack of walks drive me nuts. Mona is not good defensively, but neither is Story. I’d rather have Mona’s bat in the lineup. 
 

to me I’d tell story, clearly we have been better without you. “don’t tell us you’re ready until you’re pain free” do a full minor league rehab….. and tell him “we can’t have a black hole in lineup.. he should watch Taylor Wards approach at plate, learn from it.. and get really good at sac bunting.”

 

[dannycater]

5 minutes ago, UtahSox said:

Story K rate, swing and miss, and lack of walks drive me nuts. Mona is not good defensively, but neither is Story. I’d rather have Mona’s bat in the lineup. 
 

to me I’d tell story, clearly we have been better without you. “don’t tell us you’re ready until you’re pain free” do a full minor league rehab….. and tell him “we can’t have a black hole in lineup.. he should watch Taylor Wards approach at plate, learn from it.. and get really good at sac bunting.”

 

If Mona is "not good defensively" you could have fooled me in the Dodger series and really during the streak. I think he has been playing outstanding on defense, making some great plays. I really think Story is a DH if he does return...he can supply the righty power as DH. Never should Story see the field again.

[JoeBrady]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

I disagree. Run differential is the leading indicator of W-L, not just one side of the runs scored vs runs allowed.

Run differential and Py W/L is settled science.  Take any team, at the end of April, with a actual v Py W/L difference of 100 percentage points.  I will gladly bet that they will play closer to their Py W/L than their actual record for the remainder of the season.

[UtahSox]

35 minutes ago, dannycater said:

If Mona is "not good defensively" you could have fooled me in the Dodger series and really during the streak. I think he has been playing outstanding on defense, making some great plays. I really think Story is a DH if he does return...he can supply the righty power as DH. Never should Story see the field again.

Just to clarify…….. So you want guy on right to hit at DH? As opposed to Duran or Yoshida? And you’d rather have guy on left defensively at SS? I do agree Story shouldn’t see the field  at all….. unless we have another injury.

[UtahSox]

Even 2025 Story really lacked in areas I think this team needs out of MIF down the stretch this year. And 2025 was by far his best season in Boston. 

[notin]

41 minutes ago, dannycater said:

If Mona is "not good defensively" you could have fooled me in the Dodger series and really during the streak. I think he has been playing outstanding on defense, making some great plays. I really think Story is a DH if he does return...he can supply the righty power as DH. Never should Story see the field again.

If he could have fooled you, maybe he did.  
 

He showed his lack of range on multiple occasions and his arm isn’t very strong.

His bat has been playing, and I think if someone else takes over short (Story? Cheng? Arias?), Monasterio could easily settle in at 2b for a while…

[notin]

3 minutes ago, UtahSox said:

Even 2025 Story really lacked in areas I think this team needs out of MIF down the stretch this year. And 2025 was by far his best season in Boston. 

That chart does show Story is still the better defensive SS of the two.  Not by much.

The good news is it won’t be hard to keep Monasterio in the lineup…

[UtahSox]

6 minutes ago, notin said:

If he could have fooled you, maybe he did.  
 

He showed his lack of range on multiple occasions and his arm isn’t very strong.

His bat has been playing, and I think if someone else takes over short (Story? Cheng? Arias?), Monasterio could easily settle in at 2b for a while…

Hard to get a lot of clarity on our MIF. Mead will most likely be 2b, especially if Roman gets back. At that case I really like Monasterio 1-6 or 7 innings, Cheng 7-9 if Red Sox are up defensively, with Story to PH/ pinch run if situation presents itself. 

[notin]

1 minute ago, UtahSox said:

Hard to get a lot of clarity on our MIF. Mead will most likely be 2b, especially if Roman gets back. At that case I really like Monasterio 1-6 or 7 innings, Cheng 7-9 if up defensively with Story to PH/ pinch run if situation presents itself. 

I at least think Monasterio can handle 2b until Mead gets back…

[Maxbialystock]

15 hours ago, dannycater said:

Monasterio is 27 for last 77....a .350 clip, hit safely including tonight 16 of last 17 games, 9 doubles, a triple, 3 dingers and 13 RBI since July 1...OBP is .415 since July 1....this is not a fluke...plus it wasn't seen in the highlights and I kept telling my brother about the play at Dodger Stadium...Bello was about to get touched for some runs and it was 1st and 2nd and a smash by Teoscar Hernandez is going into LF when AM somehow backhands it and makes a monster throw from deep hole to throw him out and make it 2nd and 3rd. Muncy was IBB and Bello got out of the jam with a Sox 4-3 lead...that's GG defense from him and he had a diving stop in same game. This guy is legit going forward. 

All good points.  His post-ASG OPS is a nifty 1.021 in 15 games (of 19 total).  

[Maxbialystock]

20 minutes ago, notin said:

That chart does show Story is still the better defensive SS of the two.  Not by much.

The good news is it won’t be hard to keep Monasterio in the lineup…

If you can hit, you get to play, even at SS.  

[mvp 78]

27 minutes ago, notin said:

That chart does show Story is still the better defensive SS of the two.  Not by much.

The good news is it won’t be hard to keep Monasterio in the lineup…

"better" 🤮

[mvp 78]

If the Sox are serious about winning, once Mona's bat goes away, they should call up Arias. Have him hit 9th. Tell him to just put the ball in play and provide good defense. He's better than Cheng and is the long term replacement at SS. Why wait if you truly believe all players at AAA are ready to be called up? He's not seen as a franchise savior. He doesn't have that burden. It'd be showing up at the right time TBH. 

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, Old Red said:

I know you get into that kind of stuff, but I don’t, and really don’t care what stats determine how good a team is playing. 

You stated being last in runs scored was why we were in last place, and you weren't wrong.

The run differential indicated we were not playing like a last place team and suggested maybe we weren't that bad. It suggested we may do better going forward if we kept the same differential or improved on it.

Certain indicators have been proven to better match with W-Ls than just looking at runs scored (offense.) Defense and pitching matters too, and thos eareas indicated we were better than 29th in MLB.

The longer sample size brought us closer to what earlier indicators suggested.

This in no way diminishes the idea that Wins and Losses matter most. It just adds context.

[moonslav59]

To me, Story should not play SS. He can be considered for 2B or DH only after he has shown he can hit more like the last 81 games of 2025 than before that.

How does he prove he can? 

1. He needs to hit well in rehba.

2. Assuming he is promoted to the 26, he can start by platooning at DH and 2B. He'll get a few ABs vs RHPs. Assess his numbers and hard hit/ swing and miss rates.

3. He should not be handed any FT role, unless someone gets hurt or is doing badly.

[dannycater]

The guys that are helping team win are the guys that are playing right now, not the Meads, the Storys, the Anthonys, even Crochet...the catcher they acquired is perfect need and once he is healthy catching will be two-way instead of defense only. I don't care if Monasterio and Sogard (plus Seigler) aren't the end all for people, but I can tell that you when you go 30-5, these are mojo guys, and they are playing stellar defense despite the analytics. I got an eye test at Dodger Stadium, pretty f***ing good.

[moonslav59]

53 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

If the Sox are serious about winning, once Mona's bat goes away, they should call up Arias. Have him hit 9th. Tell him to just put the ball in play and provide good defense. 

I said that on the prospects thread, and you said he should play more in AAA before promoting him.

Let's hope the timing of Mona's drop off matches with Arias's readiness.

Personally, I don't think a week or month more is needed for Arias, but I'm fine with riding Mona.

Seigler is doing well, but I'd prefer Arias at SS and Mona-Seigler-Sogard at 2B.

[Bellhorn04]

5 hours ago, Yaz Fan Since 67 said:

Imagine if just one of the following occurs in September and carries through the playoffs:

Abreu gets hot again and puts up numbers that can carry a team like he does to start the season.

Story returns (at DH) and does something similar.  It's rare and it's been a while but it has happened.

Rutschman returns to all star level play.

Now we are looking at a really dangerous team.  Let's assume everyone else returns to expected performances.  Ceddanne and Durbin cool off but Duran gets back to where he has been the last 2 years, getting on base and created havoc.   Everyone else stays the same.

They would roll out a playoff team with a lineup that is much improved and would produce runs.  Every one of their starting pitchers can be counted on for a solid outing, if one starts leaking oil Bello can come in and shut the door for 4 innings keeping them in the game.  

Assuming Guererro continues his magical ride the game is now we turned over to a guy who is throwing dancing 103 MPH sinkers and a left handed flame thrower before we get to Whit and Chapman.  

Even if he doesn't hit Rutschman behind the plate will turn one of the best defensive teams in baseball into perhaps the best.  They have speed and have shown the ability to create runs by playing small ball, they can beat you in a number of ways.  

Pretty exciting and a post I never imagined writing a month ago.

Abreu leads the majors in homers since the ASB.

He be hot.  bWAR is up to 4.6.

 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

57 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

If the Sox are serious about winning, once Mona's bat goes away, they should call up Arias. Have him hit 9th. Tell him to just put the ball in play and provide good defense. He's better than Cheng and is the long term replacement at SS. Why wait if you truly believe all players at AAA are ready to be called up? He's not seen as a franchise savior. He doesn't have that burden. It'd be showing up at the right time TBH. 

Watching today's Woo game on NESN: Arias at SS smoothly fields a grounder in the hole and with lightning quick hands fires a perfect feed to Cheng at 2B, who turns the DP.

[Bellhorn04]

2 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I said that on the prospects thread, and you said he should play more in AAA before promoting him.

Let's hope the timing of Mona's drop off matches with Arias's readiness.

Personally, I don't think a week or month more is needed for Arias, but I'm fine with riding Mona.

Seigler is doing well, but I'd prefer Arias at SS and Mona-Seigler-Sogard at 2B.

I have decided I'm going to call Monasterio Andy Monkhouse.  

 

[Maxbialystock]

15 hours ago, dannycater said:

Don't forget I have bandwagoned like no other, I have given up on this team so often last several seasons, I can't even imagine. But it's the lack of entertainment of the team, often lack of power--and then this thing happens and it's getting to a point where it's mythical. I'm a bad fan, but I'll take the hit. I am excited about this squad right now and playoffs certainly looks like a possibility of a lot of fun. 

Great paragraph!  As a Sox fan since 1949, I would put it differently.  John Henry was the 2d coming after the 86 year drought and he spoiled us rotten with 4 WS titles in 17 or 18 seasons.  Then came 2019, the highest payroll in MLB, and no postseason, so out goes Drombowski and in comes Chaim Bloom with his Rays credentials. 

Forget 2020.  2021 was actually a good season, getting to the ALCS game after beating the Yankees and Rays in the postseason.  JH, however, was determined to tighten the payroll belt somewhat--Sox payroll is curretly ranked 10t.   Chaim Bloom struggled with that and the Sox struggled for 3 straight seasons which caused a lot of pain and misery in the fan base.

Then came Breslow who is think is is very different from his predecessors, none of whom knew as much pitching or liked it as much as Breslow.  Fenway is a hitters park.   In all 4 WS seasons the hitting was paramount (although there were some good starters and closers).  

Now pitching is.  The team ERA of 3.49 is 3d best in MLB and maybe the best ever for the Sox.   The defense has also improved.  Right now the Sox have given up 27 unearned runs in 113 games.  Last seaon it was 80 unearned runs in 162 games.  

Season to date, the Sox hitting is their  worst in a long time, but it's still good enough to enable the Sox to be the hottest team in MLB since June 23 when they were 32-46.  Now they are 62-51 or 30-5 since June 23.  That just might the hottest 35 games in Sox history.  

To me this is Moneyball turned upside down.  in the movie Billy Beane never talks to any of his pitchers because his version of sabermetrics is all about offense.   One of the ironies of that movie is that at the end John Henry swears everlasting fealty to sabermetrics and winning more with less payroll--but he in fact spent big time to get the Sox those 4 WS.  

 

[dannycater]

2 minutes ago, Maxbialystock said:

Great paragraph!  As a Sox fan since 1949, I would put it differently.  John Henry was the 2d coming after the 86 year drought and he spoiled us rotten with 4 WS titles in 17 or 18 seasons.  Then came 2019, the highest payroll in MLB, and no postseason, so out goes Drombowski and in comes Chaim Bloom with his Rays credentials. 

Forget 2020.  2021 was actually a good season, getting to the ALCS game after beating the Yankees and Rays in the postseason.  JH, however, was determined to tighten the payroll belt somewhat--Sox payroll is curretly ranked 10t.   Chaim Bloom struggled with that and the Sox struggled for 3 straight seasons which caused a lot of pain and misery in the fan base.

Then came Breslow who is think is is very different from his predecessors, none of whom knew as much pitching or liked it as much as Breslow.  Fenway is a hitters park.   In all 4 WS seasons the hitting was paramount (although there were some good starters and closers).  

Now pitching is.  The team ERA of 3.49 is 3d best in MLB and maybe the best ever for the Sox.   The defense has also improved.  Right now the Sox have given up 27 unearned runs in 113 games.  Last seaon it was 80 unearned runs in 162 games.  

Season to date, the Sox hitting is their  worst in a long time, but it's still good enough to enable the Sox to be the hottest team in MLB since June 23 when they were 32-46.  Now they are 62-51 or 30-5 since June 23.  That just might the hottest 35 games in Sox history.  

To me this is Moneyball turned upside down.  in the movie Billy Beane never talks to any of his pitchers because his version of sabermetrics is all about offense.   One of the ironies of that movie is that at the end John Henry swears everlasting fealty to sabermetrics and winning more with less payroll--but he in fact spent big time to get the Sox those 4 WS.  

 

It's definitely the Moneyball angle...believe in the philosophy, the players. 2013 was the Motley Crew squad, but still had some marquee players as part of the equation mixed in with grizzled vets and a few young guys. The 04, 07 and 18 WS teams were high profile, high salary positively. Henry is chuckling right now, Breslow is beaming as he should and Tracy has been a terrific field boss. Go Sox!

[mvp 78]

57 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

You stated being last in runs scored was why we were in last place, and you weren't wrong.

The run differential indicated we were not playing like a last place team.

Since July 1, they are 5th in runs scored. Seems like they needed to score runs to win. If they kept scoring runs at the previous pace, they'd still be below .500 regardless of pythagorus. 

[Bellhorn04]

The Moneyball concept is basically about hunting for undervalued players, right?  You could probably say that about a few of Brez's moves, but I think that's about it.  Suarez looks like a great signing, but that was a simple case of paying a guy what he was looking for. 

It's harder to find undervalued players now because every team has wall to wall data crunchers...human and non-human.

[JoeBrady]

59 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

This in no way diminishes the idea that Wins and Losses matter most. It just adds context.

W/L is a past-tense measurement.  Py W/L is predictive.  It's like picking a stock based on past performance, or current circumstances.

[Bellhorn04]

1 minute ago, mvp 78 said:

Since July 1, they are 5th in runs scored. Seems like they needed to score runs to win. If they kept scoring runs at the previous pace, they'd still be below .500 regardless of pythagorus. 

And I'm surprised we haven't seen a "How the Sox offense turned it around" article or two yet.

[mvp 78]

28 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I said that on the prospects thread, and you said he should play more in AAA before promoting him.

And my argument is that Mona should keep starting at SS until his bat goes away. Therefore, Arias would get more playing time in WOO over the next 10 games or more! 😎

[mvp 78]

1 minute ago, Bellhorn04 said:

And I'm surprised we haven't seen a "How the Sox offense turned it around" article or two yet.

Scared to jinx it? IDK. 

[Bellhorn04]

1 minute ago, JoeBrady said:

W/L is a past-tense measurement.  Py W/L is predictive.  It's like picking a stock based on past performance, or current circumstances.

I would think Py W-L has to be some of both, because of the changes in personnel that happen throughout the season.