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Community Moderator
Posted

Contreras continues to hit dingers and play great defense. He's been way better than a B.

Rafaela has been having his best offensive season so far. How is that a C+?

Giving 3b an F, but SS is a D is wild. Is this just an offensive rating? Durbin -0.1 fWAR. Story -0.4 fWAR. At least Durbin can field the position. 

C should be higher than D. They are 12th overall in fWAR. Narvaez has been very good defensively and Wong stopped being a train wreck offensively.

 

Old-Timey Member
Posted

Rotation and bullpen botj got a B-.  That seems odd.  Like they’ve both pitched equally well and one isn’t blowing leads for the other…

Community Moderator
Posted
7 minutes ago, notin said:

Rotation and bullpen botj got a B-.  That seems odd.  Like they’ve both pitched equally well and one isn’t blowing leads for the other…

The bullpen is 11th in fWAR and has been ok enough. The problem is that early on the starters weren't going long enough. Every bullpen gives up a lead or two (just not when playing the Sox). 

The starters have been great lately, but Bello really skews the overall numbers down (bottom third in MLB). Even in a small sample of just May, they are 17th in fWAR.

Old-Timey Member
Posted
20 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

The bullpen is 11th in fWAR and has been ok enough. The problem is that early on the starters weren't going long enough. Every bullpen gives up a lead or two (just not when playing the Sox). 

The starters have been great lately, but Bello really skews the overall numbers down (bottom third in MLB). Even in a small sample of just May, they are 17th in fWAR.

So Bello’s rotation numbers bring that grade down while his bullpen numbers bring that grade up?  
 

Interesting…

Community Moderator
Posted
15 minutes ago, notin said:

So Bello’s rotation numbers bring that grade down while his bullpen numbers bring that grade up?  
 

Interesting…

Seems like Bello has found his calling. 

Community Moderator
Posted

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/brayan-bello-is-going-through-it/

For his whole career up to this point, he has lived in the low 30-degree range; last year, it was 33 degrees. This year, his arm angle is up to 42 degrees...

So whether the arm angle change is the cause of Bello’s woes or a symptom of some larger systemic issue, the real problem is he’s lost about a mile an hour of velocity this year, and his fastballs — all three of them — are getting crushed...

But he is also leaving more hittable changeups over the heart of the plate. Last year, only 9.5% of his changeups ended up in Statcast’s Heart zone. This year, that’s up to 22.7%. And it gets worse when you look at his four-seamer.

Truth be told, Bello’s four-seamer has never been great; it’s got average velocity and dead-zone movement. There’s a reason he throws mostly sinkers. But his four-seamer is still useful as a chase pitch and to keep hitters from sitting on the sinker. Usually, Bello throws the fastball up in the zone, or even above it....

This year, Bello’s either totally lost his fastball command or he’s throwing high on purpose. Only 31.8% of his four-seamers have been in the strike zone this year, and if that’s a deliberate strategy, it is super not working...

In other words, Bello’s four-seamer has led to seven hits and three outs this season, and one of those outs was on purpose. This is the pitch whose reintroduction has arguably made him more effective, because the cutter wasn’t working either. He does get a decent amount of in-zone whiffs with his cutter, but when he’s not locating the pitch well, he’s getting torched.

You see the problem. He’s already given up as many home runs on cutters in 2026 as he did in all of 2025.

There are lots of ways to get hitters out consistently, but generally a pitcher needs at least one of velocity and command, and Bello has been bleeding both this year. 

 

Posted
3 hours ago, notin said:

Rotation and bullpen botj got a B-.  That seems odd.  Like they’ve both pitched equally well and one isn’t blowing leads for the other…

Bullpen gets a Blow Minus, and the rotation gets a Be Positive.

There's always that one challenging kid in class like Bello who diverts 90% of the teacher's time to attempt to "reengage" him, thus robbing all the other students of instructional opportunities in an otherwise a positive learning environment.

At least during assessments, Bello gets extended time and setting... with no pitch counts.

Community Moderator
Posted
34 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

DH: D-

Red Sox

11th in H

6th in BB

14th in fWAR

6th in OBP

15th wOBA

19th in wRC+

19th in OPS

Posted
1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/brayan-bello-is-going-through-it/

For his whole career up to this point, he has lived in the low 30-degree range; last year, it was 33 degrees. This year, his arm angle is up to 42 degrees...

So whether the arm angle change is the cause of Bello’s woes or a symptom of some larger systemic issue, the real problem is he’s lost about a mile an hour of velocity this year, and his fastballs — all three of them — are getting crushed...

But he is also leaving more hittable changeups over the heart of the plate. Last year, only 9.5% of his changeups ended up in Statcast’s Heart zone. This year, that’s up to 22.7%. And it gets worse when you look at his four-seamer.

Truth be told, Bello’s four-seamer has never been great; it’s got average velocity and dead-zone movement. There’s a reason he throws mostly sinkers. But his four-seamer is still useful as a chase pitch and to keep hitters from sitting on the sinker. Usually, Bello throws the fastball up in the zone, or even above it....

This year, Bello’s either totally lost his fastball command or he’s throwing high on purpose. Only 31.8% of his four-seamers have been in the strike zone this year, and if that’s a deliberate strategy, it is super not working...

In other words, Bello’s four-seamer has led to seven hits and three outs this season, and one of those outs was on purpose. This is the pitch whose reintroduction has arguably made him more effective, because the cutter wasn’t working either. He does get a decent amount of in-zone whiffs with his cutter, but when he’s not locating the pitch well, he’s getting torched.

You see the problem. He’s already given up as many home runs on cutters in 2026 as he did in all of 2025.

There are lots of ways to get hitters out consistently, but generally a pitcher needs at least one of velocity and command, and Bello has been bleeding both this year. 

 

… unless he is acting as a double agent

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