Early Trade deadline deals the selling Sox should make

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, Duran Is The Man said:

i wanted Brandon Lowe last winter. 

I mentioned him often, too. I liked him better than Donovan.

I think signing him might work well, this coming winter. He has power we need and should fix the 2B position once and for all. It's been a decade of a circus carrousel at 2B.

I'd also look to maybe signing Jeffers, although he may be more of a DH than a decent catcher. The Catching and DH positions both need a big boost on offense.

Neither of those two signings are earth-shattering, but they won't be budget busters, either. That would leave a major trade as the last part of the plan to add 3 major bats to the line-up. Assuming we trade Duran, we could trade for any position, except 1B (Contreras) or 2B (BLowe.) Catcher or DH would still be fine, as Jeffers could play the other. OF would be fine, as Anthony could DH. SS would be best, but trading for a big bat SS would cost us some serious young arm talent (Early or Tolle plus maybe Bennet or Eyanson.) I can't see us trading Arias, but if it's for a long term SS, I guess he could be the centerpiece of a trade. Who can we get for Arias and two from Early/Witherspoon/Phillips/Valera/Holobetz?

[norbit]

15 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

There are times when you need to deal the no control players, but I fully agree. This cannot be a major teardown, even if you hate the foundation, as is.

We've watched a slow tear down beginning in 2019, when we failed to replace Kimbrell and Kelly. That's 7 seasons of mostly last places with a couple wonder years sprinkled in.

Right or wrong: we need to identify the keepers, fill 3-4 slots with top quality players and go for it in 2027. It's fine to try and get players for beyond just 2027, but we can't ignore 2027 and load up on prospects that have ETAs in late 2027 and early 2028 and beyond.

We just CANNOT!

It would be a crime to tear it down with quality of starting pitching the Sox have. The truth is the Red Sox are almost below average at every position when it comes to offense.  I read an article awhile back reference baseball value, and it went something along the lines of 48% comes from offense, 40 % on pitching, 11% on defense.  I think Bresolow went 48% pitching, 40% defense, and 11% offense.

[Nick]

32 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

At this point, trading Duran for the best offer is okay, even if we dislike the return. Yoshida & Story? Sure, try to save $4-7M. This would open up 3 roster spots, and allow some of our current starters (1 from Narvaez/Wong and 2 from Mayer/Seagler/Monasterio) to become decent bench players for 2027.

I'm not so sure about trading Chapman, as he is under control for 2027, if he reached 40 IP. (He is on pace for close to that.) I have no idea what Gray and Chapman bring back. Their BTV value is shockingly low, so I would not go by that, I'd rather keep both and hope for a miracle than trade them for scraps.

IKF, Coulombe and Sandoval will also be dealt, if we are sellers. None have any more team control. They won't bring back much, but they should have value to several contending teams in desperate need.

The problem with deadline deals is that few teams will trade a ML ready top prospect or good established MLB player, because they need them, now. They want to trade single A prospects or maybe a AA one or two. I don't see the Sox thinking 2028 and beyond rebuild here, and I also think they are terrified of giving off that message to the fanbase. We will need immediate or near immediate return values, and that is not easy to pull off. Then, add to this the calculation that prospects or young players have more speculative value than proven value, so we have to trust we do well or "guess right." There are too many examples of failed guesses to list, but Vaughn Grissom, Jeter Downs and Kyle Harrison.... oops.... I mean YRod & Holobetz are but a few.

I really can't see this team turning it around so strongly that I have faith they can advance to the WS, but stranger things have happened, and I and many others felt this team on paper was as good or better than 2025's teams, and they got me encouraged, last year, so maybe I'm wrong (again.) As of right now, I'm leaning sell, but not totally teardown mode. Just the one year guys and maybe Chapman. (Duran, Story and Yoshida should be traded. Keeping Story as 2B depth might be okay.)

Sorry I can't offer specifics on who we can get for Gray + Chapman, but it should be someone viewed as a very good or better starting player in 2027- hopefully a SS, 2Bman or Catcher- maybe two.

It does appear that Breslow guys that were signed/traded have outperformed the guys traded away to date, thanks in part to resurgence by Durbin. 

It's just frustrating that both Crochet and Anthony are out with no definite timeline for their returns. And I've never seen a string of injuries accumulated by a young position player, Mayer. 

[moonslav59]

19 minutes ago, norbit said:

I would bet that Mayer is the better player in the next 500at bats, his ceiling is too high.  Durbin has already reached his ceiling.

While Durbin is 26, he still has under 800 PAs in the bigs. In his two seasons, he's been a slow starter. He was in the .520's last late May, too.

I'm not saying his ceiling is what he's done the last month or the .887 forty-two game streak in 2025 from near the end of May to mid July, but doing this twice opens up the idea that his ceiling may be higher than his career 96 OPS+.

Durbin played 5 seasons in the minors but only has 1274 career PAs there. He did hit .858 in AAA (443 PAs) but was between .734 and .765 at the other levels.) He has a career .782 OPS on the farm, so thinking maybe that is his ceiling is understandable. To me, with his glove, .775 would be very very nice.

Mayer has about half the MLB PAs and a 76 OPS+, so of course, his ceiling is more speculative and easily placed higher, but his minor league numbers are not all that impressive, and his injury history is frightening.

Mayer also has 5 years in the minors and slightly more PAs than Durbin (1411) so maybe the durability factor differential is not so clear. (I'm not sure why Durbin's minor league PAs are lower than Mayer's.) Mayer has less than half the AAA PAs as Durbin and a lower OPS (.818) His AA PAs rank first in level at 524, and his OPS was a pedestrian .763. He did much better in single A than Durbin, but to me that is not what I look at when determining "ceiling."

Mayer can play plus D at SS, so that is one thing in his favor.

[moonslav59]

Just now, moonslav59 said:

While Durbin is 26, he still has under 800 PAs in the bigs. In his two seasons, he's been a slow starter. He was in the .520's last late May, too.

I'm not saying his ceiling is what he's done the last month or the .887 forty-two game streak in 2025 from near the end of May to mid July, but doing this twice opens up the idea that his ceiling may be higher than his career 96 OPS+.

Durbin played 5 seasons in the minors but only has 1274 career PAs there. He did hit .858 in AAA (443 PAs) but was between .734 and .765 at the other levels.) He has a career .782 OPS on the farm, so thinking maybe that is his ceiling is understandable. To me, with his glove, .775 would be very very nice.

Mayer has about half the MLB PAs and a 76 OPS+, so of course, his ceiling is more speculative and easily placed higher, but his minor league numbers are not all that impressive, and his injury history is frightening.

Mayer also has 5 years in the minors and slightly more PAs than Durbin (1411) so maybe the durability factor differential is not so clear. (I'm not sure why Durbin's minor league PAs are lower than Mayer's.) Mayer has less than half the AAA PAs as Durbin and a lower OPS (.818) His AA PAs rank first in level at 524, and his OPS was a pedestrian .763. He did much better in single A than Durbin, but to me that is not what I look at when determining "ceiling."

Mayer can play plus D at SS, so that is one thing in his favor along with being about 2 years younger.

 

[moonslav59]

2 minutes ago, Nick said:

It does appear that Breslow guys that were signed/traded have outperformed the guys traded away to date, thanks in part to resurgence by Durbin. 

The other factor I look at is how almost all of us and probably most baseball experts viewed Harrison, Priester & Drohan at the times we traded them. What's also interesting about those three is that Brez acquired them before trading them. People scoffed at the idea that Harrison might be the prize of the Devers trade. Many liked Tibbs more. Not many were wow'd by the Yorke for Priester deal, but many are pissed at Brez for trading him away. Drohan is Drohan. I doubt he keeps this up.

Then, we hear, "Oh, I forgot about Bennett." Who is crying about trading Perales, Clarke, Aita, Fajardo and several others? (I should bite my tongue, because someday they may do so.)

We bitched about Bloom's reluctance to trade top prospects and his paralyzing indecisiveness, especially at the deadlines, but Brez has been the opposite. The amount of players and prospects he has traded and traded for is staggering. (I only mentioned a few of those he traded for and then traded away.) In less than 3 years, he has made the 26, 40 and farm mostly his. That may be unintended hyperbole, but it must be close to being true.

Looking at 40 man roster seniority, which is not the same as system seniority, the 9th most senior member is Weissert- a player Brez traded for. That means only 8 players on the 40 were on the 40, when Brez took over. The vast majority of the next 32 were acquired by Brez, not promoted from the system as Bloom or DD players.

Now, some might say, "so what- we suck," and that has merit, but take a look at the roster and farm Brez took over and compare it to this one. Take a look at the budget and bad contracts, and you'll see the worst 2-3 were inherited. Take a look at the pitching pipeline and tell me it's not vastly improved. (True, the hitting side is lacking, though.)

When you trade away about half the system, you have to figure some will do well elsewhere. The Sale trade is an example- the big one- but even that trade had some serious merit to it, at the time. Nobody expected this from Freakin' Chris Sale.

I like what Brez has done. I realize it doesn't mesh with our current W-L record, and that doe ssuck, badly. Ultimately, the record is on him. He missed the boat on adding bats. Thatw as a major blunder, but it's not the whole story, IMO.

[Bellhorn04]

2 hours ago, norbit said:

Scoring runs.  I think everyone agrees that the Sox offense is putrid. There will need to be at the minimum at least 3 offensive upgrades. I doubt the Sox trade Rafaela or Anthony, they could trade Contreras but then you're counting on Casas as the free agent class is trash. SS will be manned by Story at least the first couple of months and the hopefully replaced by Arias.  Catcher needs an obvious upgrade and I would assume the Red Sox will be in on Jeffers but so will several other teams.  That leaves 2b/3b, I could be wrong but I doubt they move Mayer for pennies on the dollar when his ceiling is so high.  

This is a personal opinion,  but I don't value defense at the corner positions.  Abreu has a league average bat and plays solid defense, belongs nowhere near the middle of the lineup.  Durbin is similar to Abreu as most his value comes from defense, but the offensive upside is limited as he just doesn't hit the ball hard(4th percentile exit velocity), even in his current hot streak his xwOBA is only .299 where league average is .320.

Early would be my choice if I had to move at pitcher in a package for a upgrade position player,  I think Tolle and Bennet are significantly better and Eyenson will be in AAA next year with couple of other interesting arms.

None of Durbin, Abreu, or Early alone will bring back an impact bat, but maybe if they are part of a package.

I think a lot of fans including myself get caught up getting the most value out of players, when the goal should just to be able just to get the best players.

I think Abreu is a little better than a league average bat.  Career OPS of .784, OPS+ of 119, so about 19% better than average, plus the solid glove.  Career bWAR of 10.9 in 360 games is more like a star level player. 

[moonslav59]

4 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

I think Abreu is a little better than a league average bat.  Career OPS of .784, OPS+ of 119, so about 19% better than average, plus the solid glove.  Career bWAR of 10.9 in 360 games is more like a star level player. 

Agreed, and RF defense is huge in Boston. (Glove & arm)

I expected a career year in 2026, and it's not too late to see it. He's only .017 from his career high OPS.

His OPS+

118 in '24

118 in '25

118 in '26

[norbit]

10 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

While Durbin is 26, he still has under 800 PAs in the bigs. In his two seasons, he's been a slow starter. He was in the .520's last late May, too.

I'm not saying his ceiling is what he's done the last month or the .887 forty-two game streak in 2025 from near the end of May to mid July, but doing this twice opens up the idea that his ceiling may be higher than his career 96 OPS+.

Durbin played 5 seasons in the minors but only has 1274 career PAs there. He did hit .858 in AAA (443 PAs) but was between .734 and .765 at the other levels.) He has a career .782 OPS on the farm, so thinking maybe that is his ceiling is understandable. To me, with his glove, .775 would be very very nice.

Mayer has about half the MLB PAs and a 76 OPS+, so of course, his ceiling is more speculative and easily placed higher, but his minor league numbers are not all that impressive, and his injury history is frightening.

Mayer also has 5 years in the minors and slightly more PAs than Durbin (1411) so maybe the durability factor differential is not so clear. (I'm not sure why Durbin's minor league PAs are lower than Mayer's.) Mayer has less than half the AAA PAs as Durbin and a lower OPS (.818) His AA PAs rank first in level at 524, and his OPS was a pedestrian .763. He did much better in single A than Durbin, but to me that is not what I look at when determining "ceiling."

Mayer can play plus D at SS, so that is one thing in his favor.

Since 5/28 Durbin is 307/341/588 wOBA .392, which is crazy cause his xwOBA is .305

[moonslav59]

Just now, norbit said:

Since 5/28 Durbin is 307/341/588 wOBA .392, which is crazy cause his xwOBA is .305

I'm thinking we should be able to expect a .750ish batter for the rest of Durbin's control years.

Couple that with near GG defense at 3B, I'm happy. .750 might beat out Bregman's next 4-5 years, too. That's an added plus, when you factor the money differential.

For now, I count Rafaela (CF) Contreras (1B) Abreu (RF) Anthony (LF/DH) and Durbin (3B/2B) as the only sure keepers for the opening day 2027 line-up. Romy can shore up a FT role by showing he can hit righties the rest of 2026, and if he doesn't he's a sure platoon bat in 2027 (1B/2B/DH.) That gives us 5. 5.5 or 6 core everyday players.

We'll need 3 serious additions this winter: SS, C and 2B/3B or DH/OF.

[norbit]

51 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Agreed, and RF defense is huge in Boston. (Glove & arm)

I expected a career year in 2026, and it's not too late to see it. He's only .017 from his career high OPS.

His OPS+

118 in '24

118 in '25

118 in '26

Abreu is odd in that he starts off this on fire and then his bat turns into a wet noodle.

2025 after 4/6 wRC+ 92

2026 after 4/6. wRC+ 95.      100 is league average

reference his defense, in my opinion defense at corner positions is significantly overvalued,  I realize this is an unpopular opinion.  I think we can both agree that he wouldn't  be in the middle of a lineup of an average offensive team.

 

[UtahSox]

2 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

At this point, trading Duran for the best offer is okay, even if we dislike the return. Yoshida & Story? Sure, try to save $4-7M. This would open up 3 roster spots, and allow some of our current starters (1 from Narvaez/Wong and 2 from Mayer/Seagler/Monasterio) to become decent bench players for 2027.

I'm not so sure about trading Chapman, as he is under control for 2027, if he reached 40 IP. (He is on pace for close to that.) I have no idea what Gray and Chapman bring back. Their BTV value is shockingly low, so I would not go by that, I'd rather keep both and hope for a miracle than trade them for scraps.

IKF, Coulombe and Sandoval will also be dealt, if we are sellers. None have any more team control. They won't bring back much, but they should have value to several contending teams in desperate need.

The problem with deadline deals is that few teams will trade a ML ready top prospect or good established MLB player, because they need them, now. They want to trade single A prospects or maybe a AA one or two. I don't see the Sox thinking 2028 and beyond rebuild here, and I also think they are terrified of giving off that message to the fanbase. We will need immediate or near immediate return values, and that is not easy to pull off. Then, add to this the calculation that prospects or young players have more speculative value than proven value, so we have to trust we do well or "guess right." There are too many examples of failed guesses to list, but Vaughn Grissom, Jeter Downs and Kyle Harrison.... oops.... I mean YRod & Holobetz are but a few.

I really can't see this team turning it around so strongly that I have faith they can advance to the WS, but stranger things have happened, and I and many others felt this team on paper was as good or better than 2025's teams, and they got me encouraged, last year, so maybe I'm wrong (again.) As of right now, I'm leaning sell, but not totally teardown mode. Just the one year guys and maybe Chapman. (Duran, Story and Yoshida should be traded. Keeping Story as 2B depth might be okay.)

Sorry I can't offer specifics on who we can get for Gray + Chapman, but it should be someone viewed as a very good or better starting player in 2027- hopefully a SS, 2Bman or Catcher- maybe two.

BTV is hella struggling right now. Gray, Contreras, Chapman, Bennett are laughable. I think they over value Rafaela a little. 

[UtahSox]

1 hour ago, norbit said:

It would be a crime to tear it down with quality of starting pitching the Sox have. The truth is the Red Sox are almost below average at every position when it comes to offense.  I read an article awhile back reference baseball value, and it went something along the lines of 48% comes from offense, 40 % on pitching, 11% on defense.  I think Bresolow went 48% pitching, 40% defense, and 11% offense.

I agree, The offense is stuck in tear down mode, Specifically C, 2b, SS, DH/LF… that’s with average offensive output from Rafaela and Abreu.  As moon has stated we can really go get best available….. I personally like the idea of trading a couple highly touted pitchers and either Arias or Mayer depending on whom you project/scout to be better…. Do this for a sure thing bat. 

while the the pitching staff is ready for World Series glory. 
 

[southpaw777]

2 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

You me the Will-DA-Beast?

He was so set in his opinions, nothing could budge him.

I made the mistake of agreeing with him that Ellsbury was not good on defense, and he wasn't year one and two, but when he started improving, softlaw would have none of that. Once he called him sucky, he had to stay that way.

(We both were happy we did not signing him to big money.)

He also agreed with me on my "No Manny- No Rings" thread which broke records for most posts and disagreements, but that was about the end of any similar views. I found it nearly impossible to have a person exist whereby I disagree on 99.9% of all his opinions. At times, I felt it was all staged or trolling, but I think he really believed every absurd idea he had. At least he was articulate in presenting his views and did not distort other's views- he just bashed them relentlessly.

The whole "pink hat Theo apologist" rants were epic, and of course wrong on several levels.

I never laughed so hard. you guys were priceless. I almost wish he was here. He was harmless and very entertaining 

[moonslav59]

12 minutes ago, UtahSox said:

BTV is hella struggling right now. Gray, Contreras, Chapman, Bennett are laughable. I think they over value Rafaela a little. 

The thing is most teams would not trade for Gray or Chapman, because of what they are owed, so that is part of how they view a player's value.

Teams that have no or little budget constraints see them as bargains.

[norbit]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

I'm thinking we should be able to expect a .750ish batter for the rest of Durbin's control years.

Couple that with near GG defense at 3B, I'm happy. .750 might beat out Bregman's next 4-5 years, too. That's an added plus, when you factor the money differential.

For now, I count Rafaela (CF) Contreras (1B) Abreu (RF) Anthony (LF/DH) and Durbin (3B/2B) as the only sure keepers for the opening day 2027 line-up. Romy can shore up a FT role by showing he can hit righties the rest of 2026, and if he doesn't he's a sure platoon bat in 2027 (1B/2B/DH.) That gives us 5. 5.5 or 6 core everyday players.

We'll need 3 serious additions this winter: SS, C and 2B/3B or DH/OF.

Just don't see how he can be a 750ish hitter with how soft he hits the ball, but maybe he hits a s*** ton of balls off the monster.   

[notin]

13 minutes ago, UtahSox said:

BTV is hella struggling right now. Gray, Contreras, Chapman, Bennett are laughable. I think they over value Rafaela a little. 

Bear in mind St. Louis pays Boston money for Sonny Gray, not Sonny directly, and Boston is under no obligation to forward that money in a Gray trade.   But if they do, his surplus value goes up by about $6-7mill…

[moonslav59]

1 minute ago, southpaw777 said:

I never laughed so hard. you guys were priceless. I almost wish he was here. He was harmless and very entertaining 

I will say, I never once considered putting softlaw on ignore. It was entertaining to me, and he did make some points that had merit.

While he did call people "pink hats" and "Theo apologists," it seemed all in fun and was more generalized than specifically aimed at one person.

I wouldn't mind if he joined this board.

I have no tolerance for liars and those who continuously misrepresent and distort other people's positions, even after being corrected. Also, though who throw a hissy for calling them a _____ hater, then calling others a "Devers-hater."

Cognitive dissonance and hypocrisy are not something I choose to interact with.

[moonslav59]

9 minutes ago, norbit said:

Just don't see how he can be a 750ish hitter with how soft he hits the ball, but maybe he hits a s*** ton of balls off the monster.   

Good point. Durbin is bottom 10% in hard hit %  at 27.4%, it's interesting to note that Arraez is second worst out of 129 qualifying players from 2025-2026! Hoerner is 6th worst, Meidroth 7th worst and Albies just below Durbin at 11th worst.

Durbin is second worst in soft hit% at 20%.

His LD% of 18 is bottom 20 or bottom 1/6 tier. Surprisingly, that's above Abreu's 17.5%.

[moonslav59]

13 minutes ago, notin said:

Bear in mind St. Louis pays Boston money for Sonny Gray, not Sonny directly, and Boston is under no obligation to forward that money in a Gray trade.   But if they do, his surplus value goes up by about $6-7mill…

Yes, and the team that trades for him now would owe him about $15M, if traded today.

We'd still get the money STL pays ($10M.)

[Old Red]

8 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I will say, I never once considered putting softlaw on ignore. It was entertaining to me, and he did make some points that had merit.

While he did call people "pink hats" and "Theo apologists," it seemed all in fun and was more generalized than specifically aimed at one person.

I wouldn't mind if he joined this board.

I have no tolerance for liars and those who continuously misrepresent and distort other people's positions, even after being corrected. Also, though who throw a hissy for calling them a _____ hater, then calling others a "Devers-hater."

Cognitive dissonance and hypocrisy are not something I choose to interact with.

You just like to keep things going. Sounds like you just did an Autobiography. Here’s You’re Sign. Stink-Stank-Stunk.🤭🙈🤮