Early Trade deadline deals the selling Sox should make

[moonslav59]

23 minutes ago, notin said:

Leverage Index is a factor in WAR

https://library.fangraphs.com/war/calculating-war-pitchers/

I did not know this. Thanks.

Is it part of bWAR, too?

IMO, it still seems like the best closers are undervalued by WAR, but I can't offer any proof.

[notin]

2 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I did not know this. Thanks.

Is it part of bWAR, too?

IMO, it still seems like the best closers are undervalued by WAR, but I can't offer any proof.

Thats a common belief.

Mariano Rivera was worth 39 fWAR in 19 seasons and was the first unanimous selection to the Hall of Fame.  Gary Gaetti was worth 39 fWAR in 19 seasons and can’t get into the Hall of Fame without paid admission.  Some say this is proof WAR under values closers.  
 

But - maybe fans just overvalue them?  They really do very little if anything to increase a team’s win total; they just pitch one inning against whoever comes up - often not the best hitters.  In fact, the entire point of using an opener was to have the closer (or equivalent) guaranteed to face the opponent’s best hitters.  
 

That doesn’t mean “anyone can close,” just like anyone cannot start.  It’s like that common myth that relievers are inconsistent pitchers.  Sure, some certainly are.  But the ones entrusted with the ninth inning year after year are most definitely not.

The odds are in a closer’s favor, which is inherent to the role.  But most consistent relief pitchers could pribably be very good closers.

[harmony]

6 hours ago, notin said:

The Sox have no use for Refsnyder.

Buying low for what? Hoping he turns it around in August?  This is a player on a short term here.  When it’s a Mariner player, his .355 OPS can be ignored because he’s been “highly productive” at some point.  But the Boston players only have immediate stats considered for comparison to the career Seattle bench players.

When teams in the postseason hunt start pawning off rostered Major League players, it’s not because those players have too much usefulness left.

The main reason you’re thinking they should move Refsnyder is because he sucks this year.  Why not lead with that?  
 

Exactly…

In response to this thread, the initial question was whether there was any interest in Rob Refsyder.

Thank you for your opinion.

[illinoisredsox]

11 hours ago, notin said:

Why would the Red Sox want another player in the midst of a career worst season?

That’s a rhetorical, right?

[UtahSox]

On 5/24/2026 at 7:28 AM, Bellhorn04 said:

Baseball Trade Values calculates a player's net value based strictly on their contracts and their projected WARs.  It can be useful, but you're right about Chapman, he would fetch a pretty good return.  BTV doesn't take into account things like how much a team trying to win it all would give up for an elite closer.

Also doesn’t account for his extra year kicking in at 40 innings. Aroldis BTV is way off IMO probably a +10 IMO

[UtahSox]

14 hours ago, notin said:

 

But - maybe fans just overvalue them?  They really do very little if anything to increase a team’s win total; they just pitch one inning against whoever comes up - often not the best hitters.  In fact, the entire point of using an opener was to have the closer (or equivalent) guaranteed to face the opponent’s best hitters.  
 

That doesn’t mean “anyone can close,” just like anyone cannot start.  It’s like that common myth that relievers are inconsistent pitchers.  Sure, some certainly are.  But the ones entrusted with the ninth inning year after year are most definitely not.

The odds are in a closer’s favor, which is inherent to the role.  But most consistent relief pitchers could pribably be very good closers.

Dodgers sure spend a lot on them…… Tanner Scott big contract, then Edwin Diaz. If teams trying to win will pay that in FA……… I have to believe 2 years of the bionic Chapman will be worth quite a bit. Whitlock could be viewed as a closer as well. 

[JoeBrady]

On 5/24/2026 at 9:23 AM, urban cowboy said:

I'm not familiar with BTV. Why is Chapman negative? He could be the key to a contender, no?

BTV is something to reference just for approximate values.  It doesn't work well for RPs, prospects, or long-term contracts.

[JoeBrady]

23 hours ago, notin said:

It does mean giving up on a first round pick quickly for Boston, but Schmitt was also a first round pick.

2/47.

[JoeBrady]

23 hours ago, notin said:

Bello (-18 -actually dropped to -22.2 but SF isn’t backing off on that) to SFG for SS Willie Adames (-18.3).  

Trade 2.  Same teams.  Kyson Witherspoon (-16.7) straight up for INF Casey Schmitt (-16.3) .

Do both.  I don't see an unproven Kyson being worth as much as 3.5 years of Schmitt.  I think Bello will provide value.  And it might be complicated enough that the SF fans won't object.

With the usual disclaimer that the fans that hate Bello's contract will scream to high heavens that we traded away a future HOF.

[JoeBrady]

23 hours ago, notin said:

Are you seriously suggesting Mayer has no trade value and no other teams would have interest if Boston made him available?

Well, Jackson Merrill is hitting a robust .600 OPS and Judge has a .593 over his last 12 games, so maybe a 3-team trade can be arranged.

[Old Red]

23 hours ago, notin said:

Are you seriously suggesting Mayer has no trade value and no other teams would have interest if Boston made him available?
 

I look forward to your non-answer…

Huh? Huh? Huh? How did you come up with Mayer has no trade value when the talk was all about Masa? Mayer wasn’t even MENTIONED.🤭

[notin]

30 minutes ago, Old Red said:

Huh? Huh? Huh? How did you come up with Mayer has no trade value when the talk was all about Masa? Mayer wasn’t even MENTIONED.🤭

This one is on me.  Misread “Mayor” for “Mayer”.

Oops…

[notin]

56 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

Well, Jackson Merrill is hitting a robust .600 OPS and Judge has a .593 over his last 12 games, so maybe a 3-team trade can be arranged.

Definitely.  If ever two players were readily available…

[notin]

1 hour ago, JoeBrady said:

Do both.  I don't see an unproven Kyson being worth as much as 3.5 years of Schmitt.  I think Bello will provide value.  And it might be complicated enough that the SF fans won't object.

With the usual disclaimer that the fans that hate Bello's contract will scream to high heavens that we traded away a future HOF.

I do Schmitt/Witherspoon.  

Adames has 5 years left and will be playing like the current version Trevor Story in 2-3 years.  The biggest difference between the two now is Adames can at least still throw.

I am not giving up on Bello after two bad months.  Players have bad years.  And his contract is basically mid-rotation starter/mid-tier closer money.  I think Bello could be a game-changing force in the bullpen.  Whereas I think Adames is a stopgap shortstop with high albatross potential…

[Bellhorn04]

16 hours ago, notin said:

Thats a common belief.

Mariano Rivera was worth 39 fWAR in 19 seasons and was the first unanimous selection to the Hall of Fame.  Gary Gaetti was worth 39 fWAR in 19 seasons and can’t get into the Hall of Fame without paid admission.  Some say this is proof WAR under values closers.  
 

But - maybe fans just overvalue them?  They really do very little if anything to increase a team’s win total; they just pitch one inning against whoever comes up - often not the best hitters.  In fact, the entire point of using an opener was to have the closer (or equivalent) guaranteed to face the opponent’s best hitters.  
 

That doesn’t mean “anyone can close,” just like anyone cannot start.  It’s like that common myth that relievers are inconsistent pitchers.  Sure, some certainly are.  But the ones entrusted with the ninth inning year after year are most definitely not.

The odds are in a closer’s favor, which is inherent to the role.  But most consistent relief pitchers could pribably be very good closers.

Relievers only pitch about one-third as many innings.  So Rivera played at the equivalent of a 6 WAR player for 19 seasons.  That's how I look at it anyway. 

[notin]

1 hour ago, UtahSox said:

Dodgers sure spend a lot on them…… Tanner Scott big contract, then Edwin Diaz. If teams trying to win will pay that in FA……… I have to believe 2 years of the bionic Chapman will be worth quite a bit. Whitlock could be viewed as a closer as well. 

That supports fan perception of closer’s value, not actual value…

[notin]

4 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Relievers only pitch about one-third as many innings.  So Rivera played at the equivalent of a 6 WAR player for 19 seasons.  That's how I look at it anyway. 

I think part of the point is closers/relievers do play a compacted role, which makes them less valuable in terms of WAR.

By your logic, backup catchers accruing 0.5 fWAR by the All Star break should be considered for the roster…

[Bellhorn04]

9 minutes ago, notin said:

I think part of the point is closers/relievers do play a compacted role, which makes them less valuable in terms of WAR.

By your logic, backup catchers accruing 0.5 fWAR by the All Star break should be considered for the roster…

Well, a lot of this stuff is pretty subjective.  But would you rather have a reliever that averages 1.8 WAR per 60 innings or a first baseman that averages 1.9 WAR per full season?  One guy is among the elite at his position and the other is mediocre.  

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, UtahSox said:

Also doesn’t account for his extra year kicking in at 40 innings. Aroldis BTV is way off IMO probably a +10 IMO

BTV has Chapman listed at 1.7 years of control and a $23.4M value.

Minus his $22.2M contract, and he's worth about $2M, according to them.

[Old Red]

8 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Well, a lot of this stuff is pretty subjective.  But would you rather have a reliever that averages 1.8 WAR per 60 innings or a first baseman that averages 1.9 WAR per full season?  One guy is among the elite at his position and the other is mediocre.  

What does that amount to in Saves, HR, and RBI?

[Bellhorn04]

2 minutes ago, Old Red said:

What does that amount to in Saves, HR, and RBI?

A reliever that averages 2.0 WAR per season is Mariano Rivera.  A first baseman that averages 2.0 WAR I'll guess gives you about 20 HR and 70 RBI.

[Old Red]

6 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

A reliever that averages 2.0 WAR per season is Mariano Rivera.  A first baseman that averages 2.0 WAR I'll guess gives you about 20 HR and 70 RBI.

Thanks.  I guess it depends what you need most. In the Red Sox case both.

[notin]

43 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Well, a lot of this stuff is pretty subjective.  But would you rather have a reliever that averages 1.8 WAR per 60 innings or a first baseman that averages 1.9 WAR per full season?  One guy is among the elite at his position and the other is mediocre.  

And that is why one went into Cooperstown and one didn’t.  But it doesn’t mean WAR undervalues closers.  If anything you’re strengthening the argument that it works well for them.  That an elite reliever in 60 IP can have the same impact as a league-average 1b makes a lot of sense.

I think WAR values relievers fine, it just makes more sense with the perspective you’ve added… 

[moonslav59]

I don't see how one player in the HOF vs another not matters on how WAR is calculated.

It just shows the extreme subjectivity of it all.

In one way, you could argue it shows closers are under-valued and people view the closer as better than the other player despite equal WAR numbers.

[Bellhorn04]

32 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I don't see how one player in the HOF vs another not matters on how WAR is calculated.

It just shows the extreme subjectivity of it all.

In one way, you could argue it shows closers are under-valued and people view the closer as better than the other player despite equal WAR numbers.

It's kind of a quality vs. quantity argument.

[Nick]

41 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I don't see how one player in the HOF vs another not matters on how WAR is calculated.

It just shows the extreme subjectivity of it all.

In one way, you could argue it shows closers are under-valued and people view the closer as better than the other player despite equal WAR numbers.

And a closer on a good team has more value to that team than a closer on a mediocre team, such as the Red Sox. So the 'trading value' for Chapman should be off the charts. The Dodgers will pay more for Chapman than say the Giants. 

[moonslav59]

46 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

It's kind of a quality vs. quantity argument.

Yes, and there are a ton of 30 WAR everyday players and not many RP'ers at that number- plus.

[notin]

45 minutes ago, Nick said:

And a closer on a good team has more value to that team than a closer on a mediocre team, such as the Red Sox. So the 'trading value' for Chapman should be off the charts. The Dodgers will pay more for Chapman than say the Giants. 

I think of it as like the Kelly Blue Book value on a car.  It establishes a value, but you’re only going to get what someone offers you…

[notin]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

I don't see how one player in the HOF vs another not matters on how WAR is calculated.

It just shows the extreme subjectivity of it all.

In one way, you could argue it shows closers are under-valued and people view the closer as better than the other player despite equal WAR numbers.

HOF has nothing to do with WAR calculations.  Really it is part of this discussion because it supports how much closers are overrated.

I know Rivera’s postseason stats support his legend, but how many titles do the Yankees win without him?  In fact, an argument exists they might have won more without him…

[moonslav59]

14 minutes ago, notin said:

I think of it as like the Kelly Blue Book value on a car.  It establishes a value, but you’re only going to get what someone offers you…

And you know some teams will offer way more than $2M value for Chapman.

BTV:

2.2 Chapman

Players we know...

2.3 Zanetello, Romero, YRod & Cason

2.2 Uberstine & Samaniego

2.1 Weissert