How to fix 2026 Red Sox?

[FredLynn]

3 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

We are not middle third in spending. We are 6th.... just one away from your call for being top 5 in spending.

Granted, moving to 5th would mean spending $25M more.

While I agree we should spend more and don't want to sound like I'm defending JH, facts are facts:

We were 11th in spending in 2024 at $220M. We are 6th now at $267. Here are the top 6 teams in 2026 spending and their percent increase in spending since 2024:

1. LAD +18% (353>416) Lost of hidden deferred money

2. NYM + 9.6% (348>381)

3. NYY +6.6% (316>337)

4. PHI +20% (264 #7 to 314)

5. TOR +24% (234 #10 to 291

6. BOS +21% (220 #11 to 267)

It will be interesting to see if the uptick in spending increases, but it appears that how we spend the money seems like a bigger issue than not spending enough.

We are 12th in payroll per Spotrac. See the link I provided. If you have a different link that proves are not 12th in payroll by all means post it.

[mvp 78]

24 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

But the "bounce back" might be to hit mid tier the rest of the way and still end up at #15 or lower, at best- maybe.

Depends on the stat.

[moonslav59]

6 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Depends on the stat.

Which significant stats might we finish above #15?

Maybe Runs, as playing half the games in Fenway might help. We are 26th at 92 and 20 runs behind #14. That can be made up rather quickly.

wRC+ 29th at 78 (14th is 101)

OPS 29th at .636 (.001 from 30th & .078 from 14th)

wOBA 28th at .293 (14th is at .322)

[moonslav59]

20 minutes ago, FredLynn said:

We are 12th in payroll per Spotrac. See the link I provided. If you have a different link that proves are not 12th in payroll by all means post it.

the 11th ranking is legit, but when you have so many pre-arb players and some who have been locked up but have low alary now, I find it to be misleading. It's still legit, though.

Other teams have numbers influenced by heavy deferments, but that does not show up here, so that would tweak some numbers, too.

I always go by the tax number as it represents the true AAV cost.

https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/tax

It's interesting to note we were 5th in spending in in 2021 at $187M. Now, we are at $193M and in 11th.

[mvp 78]

Runs

wRC+

wOBA

OPS

I think they may not get top 15 in HR or SLG. We'll see though. 

[FredLynn]

3 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

the 11th ranking is legit, but when you have so many pre-arb players and some who have been locked up but have low alary now, I find it to be misleading. It's still legit, though.

Other teams have numbers influenced by heavy deferments, but that does not show up here, so that would tweak some numbers, too.

I always go by the tax number as it represents the true AAV cost.

https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/tax

It's interesting to note we were 5th in spending in in 2021 at $187M. Now, we are at $193M and in 11th.

OK. Understood. But its 12th, not 11th, in total payroll. We should not be there. I know you agree that Henry should be spending more if he really wants to compete, which at this point, seems insincere at best.

[moonslav59]

When it warms up, other teams will homer more, too, but we played a lot more games in the cold, so far, so maybe...

We are 29th in ISO & HRs. We are 13 HRs away from #14.

We are 30th in SLG and doubt we get to 14th. (.055 away)

 

[notin]

2 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Ryan Watson is NOT an MLB pitcher. 

If they are intentionally going for line drive swings, why do they have this sign up? 

 

I am no Watson fan either, but apparently the team feels differently.

If their goal is hard flyballs, they’re failing miserably, sign or not.  Maybe I gave them too much credit…

[mvp 78]

This team used to be a top 3 payroll year in and year out. Bickering if they are 6th or 12th is silly. They have taken a step back while other ownerships have taken a step forward. 

I'll keep judging them on playoff appearances. Now they can't even field a team to make expanded playoffs.

2003-2019 5 of 17 years missed playoffs (under expanded rules)

2020-2025 4 of 6 years missed playoffs (under expanded rules) 

So what changed???

[mvp 78]

9 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

When it warms up, other teams will homer more, too, but we played a lot more games in the cold, so far, so maybe...

We are 29th in ISO & HRs. We are 13 HRs away from #14.

We are 30th in SLG and doubt we get to 14th. (.055 away)

It's not the weather, it's the SSS with this team. They need some regression.

[notin]

41 minutes ago, FredLynn said:

We are 12th in payroll per Spotrac. See the link I provided. If you have a different link that proves are not 12th in payroll by all means post it.

Sixth in tax payroll by the same site.

https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/tax

[iortiz]

Imagine this:

1. Anthony LF

2. Marte 2B

3. Bregman 3B

4. Contreras 1B

5. Abreu RF

6. Arias SS

7. Yoshida/Story/Duran DH

8. Narvaez C

9. Rafaela

Mayer, Bello gone for Marte. 

Hamilton and Harrison still here. 

What stopped us for this? What? Money? Really? Balls? What?

[mvp 78]

7 minutes ago, iortiz said:

Imagine this:

1. Anthony LF

2. Marte 2B

3. Bregman 3B

4. Contreras 1B

5. Abreu RF

6. Arias SS

7. Yoshida/Story/Duran DH

8. Narvaez C

9. Rafaela

Mayer, Bello gone for Marte. 

Hamilton and Harrison still here. 

What stopped us for this? What? Money? Really? Balls? What?

The aren't going over the 3rd luxury tax. Also, there is a best by date for Marte/Contreras/Story/Bregman. That team could fall apart very quickly. Nobody was projecting Arias to be on the roster prior to the season starting. 49M sitting at DH?

[notin]

10 minutes ago, iortiz said:

Imagine this:

1. Anthony LF

2. Marte 2B

3. Bregman 3B

4. Contreras 1B

5. Abreu RF

6. Arias SS

7. Yoshida/Story DH

8. Narvaez C

9. Rafaela

Mayer, Bello gone for Marte. 

Hamilton and Harrison still here. 

What stopped us for this? What? Money? Really? Balls? What?

This past offseason?  Probably that they didn’t want to go with Arias, as he only had 10 games above A ball on his resume.  Also they were probably hesitant to deal Mayer and preferred to move Duran, given that OF was their depth and INF wasn’t.  And speaking of Duran, where is he in this scenario?  And I really doubt Cora wanted to move Story to a weak side DH role, especially after the disaster of trying to move Devers around.

Is Harrison replacing Suarez?

[iortiz]

3 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

The aren't going over the 3rd luxury tax. Also, there is a best by date for Marte/Contreras/Story/Bregman. That team could fall apart very quickly. Nobody was projecting Arias to be on the roster prior to the season starting. 49M sitting at DH?

IMHO This is a legit WS contender team to WIN now!!!!

[iortiz]

11 minutes ago, notin said:

This past offseason?  Probably that they didn’t want to go with Arias, as he only had 10 games above A ball on his resume.  Also they were probably hesitant to deal Mayer and preferred to move Duran, given that OF was their depth and INF wasn’t.  And speaking of Duran, where is he in this scenario?  And I really doubt Cora wanted to move Story to a weak side DH role, especially after the disaster of trying to move Devers around.

Is Harrison replacing Suarez?

Harrison replace Bello. You still sign Suarez. Duran is still a role player. Mayer is nothing but meh. Story is done. You just need balls and common sense. 

[mvp 78]

11 minutes ago, iortiz said:

Harrison replace Bello. You still sign Suarez. Duran is still a role player. Mayer is nothing but meh. Story is done. You just need balls and common sense. 

Duran as a parttime role player would perform the way his is right now, horribly. 

[mvp 78]

18 minutes ago, iortiz said:

Harrison replace Bello. You still sign Suarez. Duran is still a role player. Mayer is nothing but meh. Story is done. You just need balls and common sense. 

Crochet, Suarez and bunch of young guys in the rotation? It's a high ceiling, but a very low floor. You keep saying "you need balls" but you also need brains. I think you can find a way to get Contreras, Bregman and Marte on this roster, but it doesn't end up looking the way yours does. 

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

It's not the weather, it's the SSS with this team. They need some regression.

Yes, but unless you felt we were a 10-12 team in these areas to begin with, and they play like a 10-12 for the rest of the season, they won't finish 14th.

We have played over 15% of the season. That is a SSS, but a lot of "making up" has to occur.

[FredLynn]

1 hour ago, notin said:

Sixth in tax payroll by the same site.

https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/tax

How do you explain that?

[iortiz]

56 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Duran as a parttime role player would perform the way his is right now, horribly. 

Story, Yoshida and Duran would have been DH/role/depth players. Seems like Anthony is made of glass and some players underperform and get injured at times. Plus you have Hamilton as well. 

[Deja Doh]

      The problem is the front office and offensive scouting.  Instead of signing the real thing, we settled on what ifs and now we have an offense of what ifs.  We ignored so many top players in free agency the last 4 years that it's obvious that winning isn't everything.  In 2021 I wrote here we should go after Freddie Freeman.  Instead we get more Bobby I can't see Dalbec, Franchy Cordova, and Tristan I can't hit Casas.  Who is scouting these people.

 

 

[Duran Is The Man]

20 hours ago, Hitch said:

Maybe we should bring in forum favourite, Last Place Dave to fix it.

 

he's a hall of fame GM that has won 2 world series and took the Sox to three straight AL east titles. i'd take him all day every day over the ******** we've had since he was fired. i guess you'd rather have Last Place Bloom or Last Place Breslow, neither of whom has won a f***ing thing, instead. 

[iortiz]

37 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Crochet, Suarez and bunch of young guys in the rotation? It's a high ceiling, but a very low floor. You keep saying "you need balls" but you also need brains. I think you can find a way to get Contreras, Bregman and Marte on this roster, but it doesn't end up looking the way yours does. 

It's basically the same rotation without Bello, and Harrison can't be worse. Bello was the promise never delivered. It is what it is. He is not a top of a rotation guy. And BTW thinking Story is still an everyday SS is delusional to say the least, and they need more "balls" rather than brain to realize that. He doesn't have the range nor the bat anymore. 

[JoeBrady]

2 hours ago, iortiz said:

3. Bregman 3B

6. Arias SS

Mayer, Bello gone for Marte. 

Hamilton and Harrison still here. 

Having Bregman instead of Suarez adds 0.2 bWAR.

I doubt Mayer + Bello gets you Marte.  And Marte's 0.4 doesn't make a huge difference.

Arias had 46 weak AA ABs before this season.  There is no way we were going to replace Story with a guy barely out of A+.

H&H are okay backup guys, but haven't done anything special with Mil.

[iortiz]

21 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

Having Bregman instead of Suarez adds 0.2 bWAR.

I doubt Mayer + Bello gets you Marte.  And Marte's 0.4 doesn't make a huge difference.

Arias had 46 weak AA ABs before this season.  There is no way we were going to replace Story with a guy barely out of A+.

H&H are okay backup guys, but haven't done anything special with Mil.

No, my proposal was sign both. Story would have started but by June Arias will be a better bet than Story. Story is done.

H&H are depth, although Harrison would have been a better bet than Bello moving forward. 

[mvp 78]

You know it's bad if we're at the "bring back David Hamilton" portion of the year. 

[JoeBrady]

2 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

You know it's bad if we're at the "bring back David Hamilton" portion of the year. 

I told a lot of folks not to give up on Hammy.  He is a high-end utility.  Compare Hammy and Ceddanne on a per AB basis in 2024-25, and they are very similar players.  Ceddanne with the better glove and Hammy with the great speed.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, JoeBrady said:

I told a lot of folks not to give up on Hammy.  He is a high-end utility.  Compare Hammy and Ceddanne on a per AB basis in 2024-25, and they are very similar players.  Ceddanne with the better glove and Hammy with the great speed.

DHam was very good at 2B defense, too, but his look at SS and 3B were kinda scary with the Sox. He is +16 DRS at 2B in just 695 innings.

[jdc69]

8 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

This team used to be a top 3 payroll year in and year out. Bickering if they are 6th or 12th is silly. They have taken a step back while other ownerships have taken a step forward. 

I'll keep judging them on playoff appearances. Now they can't even field a team to make expanded playoffs.

2003-2019 5 of 17 years missed playoffs (under expanded rules)

2020-2025 4 of 6 years missed playoffs (under expanded rules) 

So what changed???

Three things. 1. Building farm system, and relying on it too fast 2. Constantly changing GMs with the new ones inheriting the problems that the other one got fired for 3. Just not making smart moves, ie having multiple players for one position, or Bregman/Devers fiasco.

Beyond that, Im a believer in the old school ways, especially for this team at this time. I think these new analytics guys got the players thinking too much, and not playing enough. Bad coaches and manager, except Varitek and maybe Assistant Manager.