Boston Red Sox 2026 Win Total

[drewski6]

11 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Sox were 8th in runs scored from July 1 on. 

Okay.  The team that entered the playoffs had no hope of scoring enough runs to win a playoff series last year.  

[JoeBrady]

4 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

I don't see the offense dropping off all that much at all, if any. Contreras replaces Bregman. Durbin will outhit last year's 2b. As long as the other players don't fall off, they should be fine. 

I've mentioned this before.  We finished 22nd in OPS at 1st, and 17th at 2nd.  Those should be improved.  Bregman will hurt, but I think Duran's all-around offense will be similar to Devers' hitting.

[JoeBrady]

4 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Agreed, but these two additions don't account for the nearly 550 PAs lost from Devers and Refsnyder.

Refsnyder was a bit of an illusion with his BABIP.  Good bench player, but who does he realistically start over?  And he is 35.

[moonslav59]

33 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

Refsnyder was a bit of an illusion with his BABIP.  Good bench player, but who does he realistically start over?  And he is 35.

He started over Abreu vs LHPs and was well deserving of it for 3 years.

He's a top 5 batter vs L...in MLB! no the team.

[JoeBrady]

4 hours ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

John Heyman on the Sox' O: "I feel like the bottom third of the lineup is gonna be a challenge, and you're in a really tough division when you got Toronto, the Yankees and the Orioles, all of whom have way better offenses than you do."

Some of these writers don't even follow baseball.  The RS and TO tied last year at 4.9 rpg.  The Orioles had one of the worst offenses in BB last year.  They will improve, but still scored 108 less runs than us last year.

[JoeBrady]

1 hour ago, drewski6 said:

Okay.  The team that entered the playoffs had no hope of scoring enough runs to win a playoff series last year.  

But except for Duran dropping a fly ball and a baserunning gaffe, we'd have swept the Yankees.

[sk7326]

89-73.  I wish the ball went over the fence more.  But this is a good team - and might be even better if Story moved over to 2B.  

[mvp 78]

58 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

Some of these writers don't even follow baseball.  The RS and TO tied last year at 4.9 rpg.  The Orioles had one of the worst offenses in BB last year.  They will improve, but still scored 108 less runs than us last year.

Think the Sox had a bad September? They scored 32% more runs than the O's did (29th in Sept in runs scored). 

[moonslav59]

8 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Think the Sox had a bad September? They scored 32% more runs than the O's did (29th in Sept in runs scored). 

These are the types of things Chicken Littles don't know about.

[notin]

3 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Tolle would be in AAA. Moran doesn't have options.

Unless he is bombing, I doubt they push him off for anyone.  They will likely have an optionable reliever or two.

Of course, if he sucks, he has nowhere else to go…

[notin]

33 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

These are the types of things Chicken Littles don't know about.

And the Orioles are not some perfect lineup. After their top four hitters  (Ward, Westburg, Henderson, Alonso per Roster Resource), there is a bit of a drop off.  Rutschman has seen his OPS drop 3 straight years.  Cowser is a good all-around player but his career OPS is .703.  Dylan Beavers and Sam Basallo are good prospects but not necessarily impact bats in 2026.  And then there’s Blaze Alexander.

It could certainly be a good lineup, but it’s far from a guarantee.  Even Ward and Alonso are both 32 and coming off their second best seasons each at the plate.  Can they repeat?

[drewski6]

Depending on righty or lefty on the mound last year, we had either Narvaez (0/8) or Cedanne (0/10) hitting fifth.  The guys hitting below them (6,7,8,9) was like Eaton, Sogard, Romy (vs righties), Duran (vs lefties)....Not great.  The top 4 wasnt particularly great either and included 2 guys no longer here (Bregman, Refsnyder) and one guy who isnt expected to get much PT (Masa).  The only returning offensive player , who is projected to have a big role this year, who did really anything with the bat in the series was Story. Hope he stays healthy and NO IKF is not good insurance here, lol.

Because if you replace Story with IKF in that series, scoring  0 runs in 3 games combined becomes a real possibility.  This team flubbed at the plate against the Yankees injured pitching staff.  The bar I was at cleared out after the 4th inning in game 3, when the yanks hung a crooked number because eveyone but me knew we didnt have it to come back.  I stuck around like a sucker and watched the year ended on a whimper just like the previous 3. No fight.

I know there were injuries, I know the team is different.  But dont tell me that the offnse that finished the year was fine.  The only dangerous hitter was Story.

You wanna talk about Duran dropping the ball? How about Cedanne going 0/10?

Okay Bregman out and Contreras in. We'll call that a wash. But at the end of the day, this year, you have like 4-5 bats (again), and its very unlikely all will be healthy next year playoffs and again we're likely to see a lineup that falls off after like the first 3-4 batters.

And I understand that this offense, at full strength or even minus a couple injuries, is like middle of the pack and not like dead last in baseball.  I understand that.  But are we trying to win postsseason series?  Because last year, the offense wasnt strong enough to win a series because the bar of what is acceptable goes up when you are trying to win playoff series.  And we turned around focused mostly on upgrading the pitching.

We are going to need one of three things for a deep run, either a) very good injury luck b)internal breakouts c) in season acquisitions.  Not implying that we'll need all 3.  Its okay because I do agree that you look around the league and you see teams that need stuff to break in their favor to win a championship (you almost always do). Nobody is throwing in the towel (except maybe Fred).

But all Im asking is dont gaslight me by trying to tell me that offense was not a problem last year.  And dont say that Im a "chicken little" when I have said the sox are the 5th-6th best team in baseball which is better/higher than any power rankings/standing projections that Ive seen.

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[drewski6]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

Think the Sox had a bad September? They scored 32% more runs than the O's did (29th in Sept in runs scored). 

I think they had a bad october.

[drewski6]

How about this? This year, we be the team that goes and gets the Devers should one become available and not the team looking to dump offense.  And I honestly dont care if we have to bench Cedanne or send Mayer to AAA to make a spot.  This team still needs a bat, and a good one, and I care not what position that bat plays.

Get me Brent Rooker.

[moonslav59]

32 minutes ago, notin said:

And the Orioles are not some perfect lineup. After their top four hitters  (Ward, Westburg, Henderson, Alonso per Roster Resource), there is a bit of a drop off.  Rutschman has seen his OPS drop 3 straight years.  Cowser is a good all-around player but his career OPS is .703.  Dylan Beavers and Sam Basallo are good prospects but not necessarily impact bats in 2026.  And then there’s Blaze Alexander.

It could certainly be a good lineup, but it’s far from a guarantee.  Even Ward and Alonso are both 32 and coming off their second best seasons each at the plate.  Can they repeat?

For years we heard Sox fans lamenting the 2-3 "black holes" we had in our line-ups. Last year we had very few for most of the season, and our worst slots were better than most teams. That was partially the result of seeking our quantity over top quality, but it did help us do better than many expected us to do.

We had MLB's second best 9 slot OPS at .730, which is better than the MLB overall OPS of .719! Our 9 guy!!!

Okay, our #8 was bad (#26 at .617).

Our 7 slot was 4th best at .740.

Our 6th slot was 5th best at .759. We did fine at #5, too (5th at .768)

Back to the lacking top quality point: we were 23rd at the 4thy slot (.687 was god-awful)

8th place at the 3 slot is not bad at .825.

14th at the all-important 2 slot is not good .777.

We were 10th in the one slot at .787.

 

 

[mvp 78]

12 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

But all Im asking is dont gaslight me by trying to tell me that offense was not a problem last year.  

They were 7th in runs last year. Overall, it was fine. 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

3 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

They were 7th in runs last year. Overall, it was fine. 

Not the four-letter f word... whenever my wife uses that, it's definitely not.

[drewski6]

1 minute ago, mvp 78 said:

They were 7th in runs last year. Overall, it was fine. 

And it will be fine again this year, unless there are 2-3 injuries to key players and we take a lineup that would be "fine" if everyone was healthy into a series against the yankees.

So we'll need some injury luck or to aggressively replace contributors who go down (which we didnt do last year).

[moonslav59]

We have to hope Contreras replaces Bregman's bat and a half season more from Anthony replaces the half season lost by Devers. Abreu vs LHPs won't make up for the loss of Refsnyder, but maybe Durbin, Mayer and Romy pick up the slack from losing Ref and N Lowe. Lot's of "ifs."

It's not chicken little to be concerned and worried. Fangraphs has our batting ranked 16th, but we're only 2.1 from top 10. (2.1 from bottom 10, too.)

We will likely have a few regressions, maybe one or two from unexpected players, but with so many players nearing prime and peak prime, it's not hard to think we should have more unexpected plusses than minusses.

I don't think anyone would be shocked if Rafaela, Narvaez and/or Mayer hit around .650. Maybe Durbin struggles to stay above .675. Maybe Story shows some decline. We probably can't handle too many of these, but I think it's doubtful most of these guys decline. Maybe 1 or 2.

What's the upside on Anthony, Abreu, Mayer and even Rafaela? Is it far-fetched to see Duran, Contreras, Masa, Casas or Romy hit over .800? (again for Romy.)

[drewski6]

11 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

For years we heard Sox fans lamenting the 2-3 "black holes" we had in our line-ups. Last year we had very few for most of the season, and our worst slots were better than most teams. That was partially the result of seeking our quantity over top quality, but it did help us do better than many expected us to do.

We had MLB's second best 9 slot OPS at .730, which is better than the MLB overall OPS of .719! Our 9 guy!!!

Okay, our #8 was bad (#26 at .617).

Our 7 slot was 4th best at .740.

Our 6th slot was 5th best at .759. We did fine at #5, too (5th at .768)

Back to the lacking top quality point: we were 23rd at the 4thy slot (.687 was god-awful)

8th place at the 3 slot is not bad at .825.

14th at the all-important 2 slot is not good .777.

We were 10th in the one slot at .787.

 

 

That .825 in the 3 hole really stands out. I wonder who it was that caused that number to be substantially higher than other lineup spots.

[moonslav59]

3 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

And it will be fine again this year, unless there are 2-3 injuries to key players and we take a lineup that would be "fine" if everyone was healthy into a series against the yankees.

So we'll need some injury luck or to aggressively replace contributors who go down (which we didnt do last year).

Isn't this true for most or all teams?

One could argue a team set up for balance and depth is better equipped for injuries than a team like the Yanks, who see an injury to Judge or Stanton & Bellinger. Or TOR with an injury to Springer or Vladdy. or BAL...

[drewski6]

2 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

We have to hope Contreras replaces Bregman's bat and a half season more from Anthony replaces the half season lost by Devers. Abreu vs LHPs won't make up for the loss of Refsnyder, but maybe Durbin, Mayer and Romy pick up the slack from losing Ref and N Lowe. Lot's of "ifs."

It's not chicken little to be concerned and worried. Fangraphs has our batting ranked 16th, but we're only 2.1 from top 10. (2.1 from bottom 10, too.)

We will likely have a few regressions, maybe one or two from unexpected players, but with so many players nearing prime and peak prime, it's not hard to think we should have more unexpected plusses than minusses.

I don't think anyone would be shocked if Rafaela, Narvaez and/or Mayer hit around .650. Maybe Durbin struggles to stay above .675. Maybe Story shows some decline. We probably can't handle too many of these, but I think it's doubtful most of these guys decline. Maybe 1 or 2.

What's the upside on Anthony, Abreu, Mayer and even Rafaela? Is it far-fetched to see Duran, Contreras, Masa, Casas or Romy hit over .800? (again for Romy.)

Duran hit .850 last year against righites. He was the reason our 3 hole was .825 OPS (he didnt hit 3 hole against lefties).  The underrated mistake is Refsnyder walking.

Im not sure why everyone except us is so anti-platoon.  Give me a guy who hits .900 against righties and .600 against lefties vs a guy who hits .775 against both ALL DAY.

For the third year in a row, Duran is the key.  Hit him 8th against lefties (or not at all), dont care. BUT DO NOT F'ING TRADE HIM.

[mvp 78]

8 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

And it will be fine again this year, unless there are 2-3 injuries to key players and we take a lineup that would be "fine" if everyone was healthy into a series against the yankees.

So we'll need some injury luck or to aggressively replace contributors who go down (which we didnt do last year).

There were key injuries last year and it was fine until it wasn't (Breggie/Anthony).

[drewski6]

Just now, mvp 78 said:

There were key injuries last year and it was fine until it wasn't (Breggie/Anthony).

Id Duran/Abreu/Contreras/Story/Anthony stay healthy , we'll be fine this year.  But smart money is that 1 or 2 will not, and I just hope we get bats should that happen again.

[mvp 78]

5 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

That .825 in the 3 hole really stands out. I wonder who it was that caused that number to be substantially higher than other lineup spots.

Bregman.

 

[drewski6]

5 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Isn't this true for most or all teams?

One could argue a team set up for balance and depth is better equipped for injuries than a team like the Yanks, who see an injury to Judge or Stanton & Bellinger. Or TOR with an injury to Springer or Vladdy. or BAL...

I said that in my post.  That you always need a little injury luck. All teams.  But I dont think we're particularly balanced or deep.  I think we hinge on Duran, mr doubles and triples.

[mvp 78]

4 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Duran hit .850 last year against righites. He was the reason our 3 hole was .825 OPS (he didnt hit 3 hole against lefties).  The underrated mistake is Refsnyder walking.

Im not sure why everyone except us is so anti-platoon.  Give me a guy who hits .900 against righties and .600 against lefties vs a guy who hits .775 against both ALL DAY.

For the third year in a row, Duran is the key.  Hit him 8th against lefties (or not at all), dont care. BUT DO NOT F'ING TRADE HIM.

Prospects are fun. They could turn into anything. 🤩

[drewski6]

1 minute ago, mvp 78 said:

Bregman.

 

That doesn look like .825 to me, I guess Abreu and Refsnyder weighing it down hard?

Fair enough though, I thought it was more Duran than Bregman.

[drewski6]

1 minute ago, mvp 78 said:

Prospects are fun. They could turn into anything. 🤩

Maybe even the next duran !

[drewski6]

Trade Cedanne straight up for Brent Rooker. Championship. Duran is better in CF than he is in LF.