Boston Red Sox 2026 Win Total

[FredLynn]

1 minute ago, drewski6 said:

Like MVP has said in the past, WAR doesnt take roster/team building into account, which you are also kind of agreeing with here.  I would agree with that , but I would be shy to agree that a retrospective view of past makes theoretical performance predictions fully dismissable.

If I look at Roman Anthonys projected WAR or WRC+ or OPS or RBI totals, I dont immediately dismiss them because hes never done a full season.  I take them with more "gain of salt" because sophmores can slump, get hurt, and sure - the chance of superstardom from a second year player who didnt play a full rookie season would be generally lower than the chance of superstardom from an established superstar (holding many things equal for apples-to-apples comparison). 

To me the issue here is opportunity cost.  This team looks like it has/had the potential to jump from T2 baseball team to T1, and I dont think we've done that.  And I can understand being disappointed about that.

Right now , this team has about a 59% of making the playoffs, and I do think thats a lot because of the  expanded format.  But you could argue that the expanded format leaves a lot of teams/owners complacent.  Because there is nothing worse than falling out of contention early, but with so many teams making the playoffs, thats kind of hard to do.  Thats also why deadlines arent what they use to be becasue there are just less sellers because its easier to make playoffs due to expanded format.

This ^^^

We could make the playoffs but anyone who thinks this team as currently constructed is talented enough to make a deep run in October is living on a different planet. And I didn't mean to dismiss WAR. I just wouldn't rely on it too much. There are many other factors to consider: past performance and the current needs of the team. If a team has an outstanding rotation but lacks firepower to score runs there isn't the need to sign another ace. Address the needs, not the WAR.

[FredLynn]

Just now, moonslav59 said:

You can't argue with someone who thinks the difference between Alonso and Contreras + Gray is a possible ring to a sure fire 4th place finish.

Then don't bother.

[moonslav59]

1 minute ago, drewski6 said:

The rotation will be lights out.  But the lack of offense puts a ceiling on the team IMO.  Caleb Durbin wasnt a dumpster dive.

Nor was Contreras. IMO, he will out OPS Bregman in 2026-- maybe tied.

I do wish we'd have gotten KMarte or Neto.

[FredLynn]

2 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

The rotation will be lights out.  But the lack of offense puts a ceiling on the team IMO.  Caleb Durbin wasnt a dumpster dive.

OK. We seem to be in agreement here. I will concede that Durbin is probably not a dumpster dive. But he certainly isn't what we needed, not when his OPS+ last year (his only year) was average and his HR total last year was 11.

[moonslav59]

Just now, FredLynn said:

Then don't bother.

Why not try to explain how Alonso adds that mush of a difference?

Contreras is a good hitter and better defender. 

[moonslav59]

Just now, FredLynn said:

OK. We seem to be in agreement here. I will concede that Durbin is probably not a dumpster dive. But he certainly isn't what we needed, not when his OPS+ last year (his only year) was average and his HR total last year was 11.

Good. A non hyperbolic post.

[drewski6]

3 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

You can't argue with someone who thinks the difference between Alonso and Contreras + Gray is a possible ring to a sure fire 4th place finish.

Only cuz of "sure fire" tho, his position is only unreasonable because of the extreme confidence ,but thats par for the course.  He ends up hurting himself with incredible stubbornness.

Like how last year he was screaming about how we were not going to make the playoffs when we were already in.  But he had been making great points all year about how the team wasnt an actual competitor, but he just wouldnt fall back from "no playoffs" to "easy out in the playoffs"

[FredLynn]

3 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Nor was Contreras. IMO, he will out OPS Bregman in 2026-- maybe tied.

I do wish we'd have gotten KMarte or Neto.

Contreras was not on my dreg list. His lifetime OPS is 121. Alonso is at 135 lifetime and 144 last year. Alonso hit 38 HRs last year. Contreras 17. Face it: we chose "Alonso light".

[FredLynn]

6 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Why not try to explain how Alonso adds that mush of a difference?

Contreras is a good hitter and better defender. 

Yes, Conteras IS a good hitter (see above). But Alonso has better numbers.

[drewski6]

7 minutes ago, FredLynn said:

OK. We seem to be in agreement here. I will concede that Durbin is probably not a dumpster dive. But he certainly isn't what we needed, not when his OPS+ last year (his only year) was average and his HR total last year was 11.

Correct.  Durbin is yet another average player on a team with too many average position players.  Its one less place to put a superstar.

[drewski6]

8 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Why not try to explain how Alonso adds that mush of a difference?

Contreras is a good hitter and better defender. 

Hes also showing signs of aging across the board though.  More than Alonso and Bregman who are showing signs of aging but not as much.

[moonslav59]

2 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Only cuz of "sure fire" tho, his position is only unreasonable because of the extreme confidence ,but thats par for the course.  He ends up hurting himself with incredible stubbornness.

Like how last year he was screaming about how we were not going to make the playoffs when we were already in.  But he had been making great points all year about how the team wasnt an actual competitor, but he just wouldnt fall back from "no playoffs" to "easy out in the playoffs"

I understand his view and stubbornness, along his propensity for making hyperbolic statements then backing down. I understand the negativity and feelings of doom & gloom. I lived it for over 3 decades of following the Sox.

I'm not happy we are not taking full advantage of this clear and present window. I just don't need to talk in absolutes and black & white formats. It's not all or nothing. There is no need to make deceptive and untrue statements to make the point. I actually agree with the main point being made- that we coulda-shoulda done more/better, this winter. 

But, why say we should have spent more when we could have gotten Alonso with the money we spent, and apparently he's all we need to be a ring competitor. When I say it's not worth arguing, it's about his failure to address the specifics of points like this one I just made. If my point is made, it's on Brez not JH, and he gets in his fair share of Brez bashing, too, but then goes full circle back to JH and the stale Revenue v Spending ranking from 2 years ago as the be-all-end-all point.

I guess in a perfect world the MLB spending by teams would fall exactly in line with revenue, and if it doesn't, the owner who falls below his slot is a liar and a bum. It's just silliness, to me. Then the doubling down and circular reasoning.

The fact is JH has spent more "new money" in the last two winters than he did in the previous 3-4 seasons combined. That doesn't mean it's "enough," but to say he's "not spending" or "cheap" is changing the meanings of the English language.

 

[moonslav59]

10 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Hes also showing signs of aging across the board though.  More than Alonso and Bregman who are showing signs of aging but not as much.

Thanks for finally getting specific, although you are totally wrong.

OPS+Contreras
Best seasons: 2024 138, 2019 127, 2022 126, 2025 123, 2023 123 (4 of his best 5 years are the last 4 years!)

Worst: 2018 94, 2020 106, 2021 109, 2017 118. 2016 122 ( 5 of his 6 worst seasons were 2021 and before.)

It's just not true. He is aging very well and no longer has the physical burden of having to catch.

Bregman- OMG!!! You are totally off base.

147 OPS+ '17-'19

124 OPS+ '20-'22

121 OPS+ '23-'25 (If it wasn't for his half season to start 2025, it was 119 from '23-'24)

Alonso had his 3rd best OPS+ season in 2025, so age does not seem to be hurting him, however, he did have his 2nd and 3rd worst OPS+ seasons in 2023 (123) and 2024 (122).

140 OPS+ his first 2254 PAs

130 OPS+ his last 2062 PAs ('23-'24)

[FredLynn]

19 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Hes also showing signs of aging across the board though.  More than Alonso and Bregman who are showing signs of aging but not as much.

I think you correctly and succinctly posted that our ceiling is now limited because our offense isn’t that of a team competing for a ring. That sums it up. Maybe we’ll finish 3rd. Maybe we’ll make the playoffs. But doing that and getting bounced early again isn’t what I would call a successful season. Not this year. And the shame is that it didn’t have to be this way.

[drewski6]

11 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I understand his view and stubbornness, along his propensity for making hyperbolic statements then backing down. I understand the negativity and feelings of doom & gloom. I lived it for over 3 decades of following the Sox.

I'm not happy we are not taking full advantage of this clear and present window. I just don't need to talk in absolutes and black & white formats. It's not all or nothing. There is no need to make deceptive and untrue statements to make the point. I actually agree with the main point being made- that we coulda-shoulda done more/better, this winter. 

But, why say we should have spent more when we could have gotten Alonso with the money we spent, and apparently he's all we need to be a ring competitor. When I say it's not worth arguing, it's about his failure to address the specifics of points like this one I just made. If my point is made, it's on Brez not JH, and he gets in his fair share of Brez bashing, too, but then goes full circle back to JH and the stale Revenue v Spending ranking from 2 years ago as the be-all-end-all point.

I guess in a perfect world the MLB spending by teams would fall exactly in line with revenue, and if it doesn't, the owner who falls below his slot is a liar and a bum. It's just silliness, to me. Then the doubling down and circular reasoning.

The fact is JH has spent more "new money" in the last two winters than he did in the previous 3-4 seasons combined. That doesn't mean it's "enough," but to say he's "not spending" or "cheap" is changing the meanings of the English language.

 

I agree, but I think Fred in his default state (not digging in heels and going 200 proof stubborn) is more reasonable than the people who go too far the other way talking about like GM of the year / one of the best off-seasons in baseball history / 2nd best team in MLB

At least you agree with Freds underlying beliefs.  I do love ur points regarding blame Breslow over JH and Im there.  

[drewski6]

9 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Thanks for finally getting specific, although you are totally wrong.

OPS+Contreras
Best seasons: 2024 138, 2019 127, 2022 126, 2025 123, 2023 123 (4 of his best 5 years are the last 4 years!)

Worst: 2018 94, 2020 106, 2021 109, 2017 118. 2016 122 ( 5 of his 6 worst seasons were 2021 and before.)

It's just not true. He is aging very well and no longer has the physical burden of having to catch.

Bregman- OMG!!! You are totally off base.

147 OPS+ '17-'19

124 OPS+ '20-'22

121 OPS+ '23-'25 (If it wasn't for his half season to start 2025, it was 119 from '23-'24)

Alonso had his 3rd best OPS+ season in 2025, so age does not seem to be hurting him, however, he did have his 2nd and 3rd worst OPS+ seasons in 2023 (123) and 2024 (122).

140 OPS+ his first 2254 PAs

130 OPS+ his last 2062 PAs ('23-'24)

Dont try the gymnastics here....Contreras is going into his age 34 season and is 2 yrs older than Bregman.  His OPS was under .800 last year for the first time in four years.  It fell from .850 to sub .800 which is a concerning trend.  And he cant play his primary position anymore becasue he got old.

Hes aging well, yes.  Hes doing a good job of staying a contributor in the aging process.  He is quite advanced/far along in the aging process.  I understand that aging is not always linear and different for everybody, but no way he would have gotten a 5 yr contract had he been a free-agent like Bregman/Alonso, and there is a reason why the Cards added money to make his contract worth trading for.

[drewski6]

Bregman is getting old, Contreras is old.

[drewski6]

ANd if hes not old, Contreras, this is great news for everybody but Narvaez.

[Old Red]

6 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

I agree, but I think Fred in his default state (not digging in heels and going 200 proof stubborn) is more reasonable than the people who go too far the other way talking about like GM of the year / one of the best off-seasons in baseball history / 2nd best team in MLB

At least you agree with Freds underlying beliefs.  I do love ur points regarding blame Breslow over JH and Im there.  

I agree, and I like to think of it of Breslow being a settler who settled. It may all work out in the end though.

[Old Red]

1 minute ago, drewski6 said:

Bregman is getting old, Contreras is old.

It doesn’t matter as much though with the Con Man who’s on a shorter contract.

[drewski6]

Just now, Old Red said:

It doesn’t matter as much though with the Con Man who’s on a shorter contract.

Agreed. I dont dislike Contreras or the move.  I expect Contreras to contribute and be our best hitter next year who isnt an outfielder and likely our third best hitter overall.  But a guy who can no longer play the position he always was, entering his age 34 season, who just his first sub .800 OPS season in a while is in an advanced stage of aging.

And if he ages backwards (which does happen, see Al Horford), great. Freeman had an .850 OPS his age 34 season and while Contreras was never on Freemans level, I would happily take that.

[mvp 78]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

I thought we should be sellers a couple of those years.

The year we got Garcia and Sims for the pen did not work out well, and we coulda gone bolder, but they were not really as bad as the D May deal.

In hindsight, yes.

It wasn't hindsight for some of us. I wanted them to sell off on day one of '22. I wanted them to trade Kenley and Martin in '24. They should have tried to go for it in '23 as they didn't really have any pieces to deal off (could have done the deal for Jack Flaherty). 

[moonslav59]

4 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

It wasn't hindsight for some of us. I wanted them to sell off on day one of '22. I wanted them to trade Kenley and Martin in '24. They should have tried to go for it in '23 as they didn't really have any pieces to deal off (could have done the deal for Jack Flaherty). 

No, I meant in hindsight the Garcia/Sims deals turned out badly.

Yes, many of us wanted us to sell everything not tied down for a year or even 2.

[mvp 78]

53 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Hes also showing signs of aging across the board though.  More than Alonso and Bregman who are showing signs of aging but not as much.

Conteras will be 34 this year. Alonso will be 31. If Alonso was showing the same signs of as a career long catcher who was 3 years older, any argument about him signing here should just pack it in. Contreras is a better fit because his glove is better and his contract is only 2 years long. 5 years of Pete Alonso at DH for 30M+? No thanks. 

[FredLynn]

28 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

I agree, but I think Fred in his default state (not digging in heels and going 200 proof stubborn) is more reasonable than the people who go too far the other way talking about like GM of the year / one of the best off-seasons in baseball history / 2nd best team in MLB

At least you agree with Freds underlying beliefs.  I do love ur points regarding blame Breslow over JH and Im there.  

I tend to be stubborn and stick to my guns when I think I’m right. I realize that I won’t always get it right but if I truly believe something I see no reason to change my mind unless what I consider to be solid proof that I’m wrong presents itself.

[mvp 78]

9 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Agreed. I dont dislike Contreras or the move.  I expect Contreras to contribute and be our best hitter next year who isnt an outfielder and likely our third best hitter overall.  But a guy who can no longer play the position he always was, entering his age 34 season, who just his first sub .800 OPS season in a while is in an advanced stage of aging.

And if he ages backwards (which does happen, see Al Horford), great. Freeman had an .850 OPS his age 34 season and while Contreras was never on Freemans level, I would happily take that.

There were no changes in his bat speed from '24 to '25. 

[Old Red]

2 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

No, I meant in hindsight the Garcia/Sims deals turned out badly.

Yes, many of us wanted us to sell everything not tied down for a year or even 2.

What do you think the players, and Cora wanted to do? Fire Sale? No way, and as this was brought up then as it is now not trying to win is a LOSERS Attitude. Not trying to win then you might as well not play. 

[mvp 78]

Just now, Old Red said:

What do you think the players, and Cora wanted to do? Fire Sale? No way, and as this was brought up then as it is now not trying to win is a LOSERS Attitude. Not trying to win then you might as well not play. 

As CBO, I'm Alex's boss and can tell him what he needs to believe. I'm selling in '22 so that the Sox can build the next great Red Sox team instead of halfassing it the way Bloom/Breslow did on Earth 1. 

[moonslav59]

18 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Bregman is getting old, Contreras is old.

Bregman aged early. There is no gymnastics to it. He's been basically a half season hitter for a while. In 2024, he started very slowly. In 2025, he ended very slowly.

He had a little up blip in 2022 at age 28, but then went right back into a downward trend until the half season in 2025. Sure, he has the chance to have a couple more good and better seasons, but I don't see why we should project anything better than his 121 three year OPS+.

Yes, Contreras is already old. However, his age 33 season saw him hit 123 and his 3 year number is 127. I think he has a very good chance at out-OPS+'ing Bregman in 2026. I think not catching should help him out, a lot.

There is no way anyone can look at the recent trends of Bregman, Contreras and Bregman and say Willson is showing more decline.

Use the age angle- fine.

[moonslav59]

23 minutes ago, Old Red said:

It doesn’t matter as much though with the Con Man who’s on a shorter contract.

Lower AAV and less years- music to Brez, JH & Co's ears.