Bregman signs with the Cubs

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, notin said:

Youre working in the realm of theory, and not even supported theory, on the role of thr CBO/GM, and not only holding these theories against Breslow, but pretending the playing field is equal.

When the Sox fired Dombrowski and hired Bloom, they did so to create a sustainable pipeline of minor league talent aka make the team cheaper.

If Dombrowski was all about talking Henry into spending more money, why didn’t he 1) get enough money to keep Betts or 2) buy a closer to replace Kimbrel for 2019?

I do think GMs might have some pull, at times, even if slight, but it's hard to prove they make a substantial difference in setting budget limits.

[moonslav59]

44 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Cora wanted to move on from Devers and have his buddy Bregman around. He just didn't realize that Breslow wouldn't be able to get a contract across the finish line. I wonder if he's having second thoughts now with that big hole at the top of the lineup? 

I thought Cora wanted Bregman to play 2B and not move Devers to DH (or 1B.)

[jad]

23 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

I once tied an all-time record in baseball history for making three put-outs in one inning at first base.

I know there are situations where you can record 4 outs in an inning (it involves a base-running appeal).  And I THINK, but I'm not sure, that a player in that situation MIGHT get credit for put-outs.   (I'm to lazy to construct the scenario--but if anyone can do it, I'd be grateful.). Even if this happened in your local beer league, your record crumbles!

[moonslav59]

40 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Some here and in the media say the Red Sox have made improvements.

Are the 2025 and 2026 roster and system better than 2022-2024?

If you agree, then isn't saying "improvements have been made" also correct?

I agree, mistakes have been made. Coming up short on just about every FA "of interest" sucks, bigtime. Keeping an overly tight budget when it's clear as day we have a great opportunity to get to glory is ludicrous.

One reason we feel like there is a great opportunity, right now, is because we have IMPROVED!

As for "improvement" from 2025 to 2026, that remains to be seen. I think we are close to being the same, right now.

[moonslav59]

40 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

I thought my earlier off season projection of Bo for 240/8 might have been a little too high, now I'm thinking it might even be a little too light.  I don't think he's getting anything out of the 200's but he's going to push high into the 200 million mark.  If Bregman can get 175, Bo will command more. 

More years, yes.

[mvp 78]

10 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I do think GMs might have some pull, at times, even if slight, but it's hard to prove they make a substantial difference in setting budget limits.

I think Theo and DD were able to move the needle a little bit. Bloom and Breslow are not. They don't have the juice with Henry. Maybe Breslow just doesn't want to spend either because of what the models say? 

[mvp 78]

9 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I thought Cora wanted Bregman to play 2B and not move Devers to DH (or 1B.)

He said that in the offseason and then the second Bregman got to ST, he didn't play a lick of 2b. Didn't even take a grounder on the right side of the IF. 

[Old Red]

51 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Cora wanted to move on from Devers and have his buddy Bregman around. He just didn't realize that Breslow wouldn't be able to get a contract across the finish line. I wonder if he's having second thoughts now with that big hole at the top of the lineup? 

I think he wanted his buddy no doubt, but only locking him up for 1 year at the time, and taking a chance later was more than a big, big gamble that the Red Sox ultimately, and I think predictably lost. It seems Breggie had more pursuers this time around, and the Red Sox were all so close.

[Hugh2]

7 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

More years, yes.

he might do better than 30 AAV too. 

[mvp 78]

8 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Are the 2025 and 2026 roster and system better than 2022-2024?

If you agree, then isn't saying "improvements have been made" also correct?

I agree, mistakes have been made. Coming up short on just about every FA "of interest" sucks, bigtime. Keeping an overly tight budget when it's clear as day we have a great opportunity to get to glory is ludicrous.

One reason we feel like there is a great opportunity, right now, is because we have IMPROVED!

As for "improvement" from 2025 to 2026, that remains to be seen. I think we are close to being the same, right now.

They've improved in some ways and have taken steps back in others. I think the org was stronger on 4/1/25 than it will be on 4/1/26. 

[mvp 78]

2 minutes ago, Old Red said:

I think he wanted his buddy no doubt, but only locking him up for 1 year at the time, and taking a chance later was more than a big, big gamble that the Red Sox ultimately, and I think predictably lost. It seems Breggie had more pursuers this time around, and the Red Sox were all so close.

They were close, but not willing to budge on the dollars or no trade clause. 

Signed Breggie for a year to move Devers off 3b. Traded Devers for crap. Didn't re-sign Breggie. Nice 12 months!

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

4 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Are the 2025 and 2026 roster and system better than 2022-2024?

If you agree, then isn't saying "improvements have been made" also correct?

I agree, mistakes have been made. Coming up short on just about every FA "of interest" sucks, bigtime. Keeping an overly tight budget when it's clear as day we have a great opportunity to get to glory is ludicrous.

One reason we feel like there is a great opportunity, right now, is because we have IMPROVED!

As for "improvement" from 2025 to 2026, that remains to be seen. I think we are close to being the same, right now.

My whole post refers to this year compared to last year.

Some may feel Romy or Mayer or Ceddanne can play infield good enough, but no one can dispute that there is a big hole in the batting order right now. 

The Red Sox offseason doesn't deserve an F, because Breslow replaced Devers, Giolito and Buehler. But did he really upgrade?

Even if... right now they get an I for Incomplete because their only All-Star positional player just left. 

[moonslav59]

13 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I think Theo and DD were able to move the needle a little bit. Bloom and Breslow are not. They don't have the juice with Henry. Maybe Breslow just doesn't want to spend either because of what the models say? 

I remember hearing that Ben preferred to try and show he could win without spending. (I never believed it.)

[moonslav59]

9 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

They've improved in some ways and have taken steps back in others. I think the org was stronger on 4/1/25 than it will be on 4/1/26. 

If we do nothing more, it's a close call, but I'd probably say I agree. The hope it that returning players improve and stay healthier than 2025. With a mostly young team, that's not a stretch, but it's hard to project improvement from the same players.

[moonslav59]

6 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

My whole post refers to this year compared to last year.

Some may feel Romy or Mayer or Ceddanne can play infield good enough, but no one can dispute that there is a big hole in the batting order right now. 

The Red Sox offseason doesn't deserve an F, because Breslow replaced Devers, Giolito and Buehler. But did he really upgrade?

Even if... right now they get an I for Incomplete because their only All-Star positional player just left. 

The winter is not over. It's hard to be encouraged knowing we offered a major overpay on a 5 year deal, just as we saw the money offered to Soto not spent elsewhere. I do NOT think we are done making additions- yes plural.

As of now, I agree we do not look "improved" from 2025, unless we start speculation on several young players busting out or most of them improving, all at once. That seems more like a hope than a fact-based projection.

I'm not happy with the "end product," if this is it.

[mvp 78]

15 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

My whole post refers to this year compared to last year.

Some may feel Romy or Mayer or Ceddanne can play infield good enough, but no one can dispute that there is a big hole in the batting order right now. 

The Red Sox offseason doesn't deserve an F, because Breslow replaced Devers, Giolito and Buehler. But did he really upgrade?

Even if... right now they get an I for Incomplete because their only All-Star positional player just left. 

If they are basically done an only add bit parts: C- (I like Sonny Gray a lot more the most posters on here)

[Hitch]

It seems like the biggest obstacle of all was that the Sox wouldn't give him a no-trade clause. 

Not a great look to other FA's - we want to be able to trade you whenever we want.

[mvp 78]

1 hour ago, Hitch said:

It seems like the biggest obstacle of all was that the Sox wouldn't give him a no-trade clause. 

Not a great look to other FA's - we want to be able to trade you whenever we want.

They aggressively wanted to make sure that they could still trade him at any point in the future. 

[moonslav59]

56 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

If they are basically done an only add bit parts: C- (I like Sonny Gray a lot more the most posters on here)

I'd mention Contreras and cout him and Gray as more than "bit parts," but certainly not big splashes.

[mvp 78]

6 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I'd mention Contreras and cout him and Gray as more than "bit parts," but certainly not big splashes.

I meant "only bit parts going forward." I consider Contreras and Gray as certainly more than bit parts. If they got another bat on Contreras's level it'd be HUGE. 

[Old Red]

8 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I'd mention Contreras and cout him and Gray as more than "bit parts," but certainly not big splashes.

The Con Man should be a step up from what they had, but to me a step down from what they could of had in Alonso. As for Gray it remains to be seen if he’s a step up from Gio.

[Old Red]

4 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I meant "only bit parts going forward." I consider Contreras and Gray as certainly more than bit parts. If they got another bat on Contreras's level it'd be HUGE. 

The biggest bats out there as FA are OF, and it seems Martel is off the market, so Brez is going to have to get creative to find one.

[mvp 78]

2 minutes ago, Old Red said:

The Con Man should be a step up from what they had, but to me a step down from what they could of had in Alonso. As for Gray it remains to be seen if he’s a step up from Gio.

2025:

Giolito 145 IP, 7.51 K, 3.48 bb, 3.41 ERA, 4.59 xFIP, 2.0 fWAR

Gray 180 IP, 10.01 k, 1.89 bb, 4.28 ERA, 3.07 xFIP, 3.6 fWAR

Aside from ERA, Gray had a much better season than Giolito last year. If you cross out the names, 90% of people pick the guy who threw 180 IP with a better k/bb rate. 

[Hitch]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

The aggressively wanted to make sure that they could still trade him at any point in the future. 

I'm really torn on this. That is not a contract I want us giving to Bregman in a vacuum. But we aren't in a vacuum, we're in a world where the Sox have mostly been mismanaged for 6 years. And so with the window open to win, its perfectly fine to say we should go for it and overpay for the the first three years knowing the last two would hurt us. But we just seem programmed, like literally programmed to decide things on how they read after being run through their model.

It often feels like they'll let perfect be the enemy of good.

[moonslav59]

48 minutes ago, Hitch said:

It seems like the biggest obstacle of all was that the Sox wouldn't give him a no-trade clause. 

Not a great look to other FA's - we want to be able to trade you whenever we want.

I think, until maybe now, it's been lowballing on numbers and years and not the no-trade clause that has kept us from signing big-splash FAs.

These are our largest FA signings from 2025 working backwards:

All one year deals, unless noted. (extensions only listed to FAs)

2025:

$40M Bregman ($120M/3 w opt-outs)

$21M Buehler

$10.8M Chapman (extended mid season to 1 year + option)
$2.3M J Wilson

2024:

$38.5M/2 Giolito

$10M/2 Hendriks

2023:

$32M/2 Jansen

$21.7/2 Turner (turned down player option- was $11M/1)

$10M Kluber

$7M Duvall

$2M Joely R

2022:

$17.5M/2 Chris Martin

$10M Paxton w option

$8M/2 Diekman (traded mid season year 1)

$7M Wacha

$5M Rich Hill

2021:

$14M/2 Kike (later extended for 3rd year at $10M)

$10M Richards

$5M Martin Perez

$3M Marwin G (traded mid season)

2020:

$6M Martin Perez

$3M Moreland (traded at deadline)

Largest deals from 2015-2019:

$10M+++ only (not all that many and none between $18M and $68M!

$217M/7 Price 2016 (traded after 2019)

$110M/5 JD 2018

$95M/5 Pablito 2015 (DFAd)

$88M/4 HRam 2015 (DFA'd)

$68M/4 Nate 2019 (more like an extension)

$18M/1 Uehara 2015

$13M/2 Moreland 2018 and Chris Young 2016

[JoeBrady]

3 hours ago, notin said:

If Dombrowski was all about talking Henry into spending more money, why didn’t he 1) get enough money to keep Betts or 2) buy a closer to replace Kimbrel for 2019?

Probably because we were already #1 in payroll, combined with the #30 farm.  Except for the LAD and NYM, even teams with money also have limits.

[JoeBrady]

2 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

He said that in the offseason and then the second Bregman got to ST, he didn't play a lick of 2b. Didn't even take a grounder on the right side of the IF. 

Campbell was always going to be the presumptive 2B.

[mvp 78]

2 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

Probably because we were already #1 in payroll, combined with the #30 farm.  Except for the LAD and NYM, even teams with money also have limits.

Their limit was 300M, not 365M. They either wanted a lower AAV or didn't want to go the additional 2 years. There was money for Betts at some point. They just gave him a take it or leave it offer. That 12/365M seems like a steal at this point for a true superstar like Betts. 

[JoeBrady]

2 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

I think Theo and DD were able to move the needle a little bit. Bloom and Breslow are not.

IMO, JH thought of Bloom as the rebuild guy.  He was never going to tank, but was never going to go all-in.  Too early to tell with Breslow.  I think we will go past threshold #1, and JH will make a business decision at the TDL.  He's done that before.

[mvp 78]

1 minute ago, JoeBrady said:

Campbell was always going to be the presumptive 2B.

He shouldn't have been. I wanted Campbell to be the 2b, but I wanted Campbell to earn the spot first and foremost. He wasn't ready. He had a bad spring. His defense was also horrible. Apparently, internal models still grade his 2b defense highly but they still moved him to LF???

The only reason he got the spot was because he signed the extension. That's not how you should build the roster.