Red Sox acquire Wilson Contreras From Cardinals

[Hugh2]

1 hour ago, notin said:

Can we agree on this:

1) Duran is a viable trade candidate

2) Duran is very unlikely to be dealt directly for a #2 starter, but he can be dealt in a 3 team deal that nets one, or for a prospect haul that can be flipped for one…

Agree 100% on both accounts

[notin]

12 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I think Duran for Lodolo makes total sense for both teams. Sure, trading Singer works better for CIN, but they need a high quality bat and OF'er and Singer will not get that for them.

I think Duran is worth more than Lodolo. It only makes sense to BOS, because we have an OG logjam and need a quality SP'er.

I'd prefer trading Duran for a big bat 3Bman/2Bman, because I doubt we spend large and long on one, and I'm not high on Breggie or Bichette as "the guy" we break the mold on.

I'm not sure how much HOU like Duran (or Rafaela/Abreu) but getting Paredes and a LH'd RP'er might be the best we can do.

If they ever did Reds are willing to trade Lodolo for Duran, it should have already happened.  I think I’d be questioning Breslow if he’s the reason that deal never happened.

 

As for Singer, BTV suggests he is worth the about the same as Lars Nootbaar, Kerry Carpenter, Brenton Doyle, Isaac Collins or Josh Lowe in a trade.  I do Carpenter or Doyle yesterday, and think long and hard about Lowe.  Pass on Collins and Nootbaar. (Both are in the division anyway)…

 

[Hugh2]

Well seeing how this has turned into the Jarren Duran trade thread I'll keep this in here.

But at this point in time I think it makes MUCH more sense to trade Duran for offense, which he is but we need it at other positions. 

It makes a lot more sense to trade Duran (whether 2 team or 3 team trade) for a 2B or a 3B.  This team NEEDS and offensive upgrade much much more than it needs more pitching. 

[moonslav59]

6 minutes ago, notin said:

If they ever did Reds are willing to trade Lodolo for Duran, it should have already happened.  I think I’d be questioning Breslow if he’s the reason that deal never happened.

You can't assume this.

If it's Brez, it could be about Brez waiting on another (Plan A) trade option- like Duran for Paredes plus  LHP. Maybe HOU or some other team is holding up on an answer or are working out a final piece to a possible trade.

If it's CIN, it might be about them seeking the best they can get for Singer, but still on hold with a team on what that return might be.

There are too many moving parts to assume a deal would be done, if it could have been.

[moonslav59]

8 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

Well seeing how this has turned into the Jarren Duran trade thread I'll keep this in here.

But at this point in time I think it makes MUCH more sense to trade Duran for offense, which he is but we need it at other positions. 

It makes a lot more sense to trade Duran (whether 2 team or 3 team trade) for a 2B or a 3B.  This team NEEDS and offensive upgrade much much more than it needs more pitching. 

This how I see it, too.

If AZ does not like Duran enough, maybe a third team could be involved, so we could get KMarte. I get the money and years part scare Brez & Co, but his AAV is not that high, and if we include Duran, we can subtract $7.8M for 2026 and likely more for 2027 and 2028. we could also include Crawford $2.7M est. or get AZ to pay a little cash.

I keep mentioning Paredes, because I think he is about to explode on the scene, and I am hearing a lot of talk about trading him, here in HOU.

I would not trade Duran for Donovan, and I'm not sure STL has anything more I'd want to "balance" it out. I doubt they take Duran and Hicks for Donovan, but I might do that, if we use the savings to add one more piece, somewhere.

I hope we don't trade Duran for Vientos, but I'm not sure about the addition of Tong as tipping the scale to a yes.

[UtahSox]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

I think Duran for Lodolo makes total sense for both teams. Sure, trading Singer works better for CIN, but they need a high quality bat and OF'er and Singer will not get that for them.

I think Duran is worth more than Lodolo. It only makes sense to BOS, because we have an OG logjam and need a quality SP'er.

I'd prefer trading Duran for a big bat 3Bman/2Bman, because I doubt we spend large and long on one, and I'm not high on Breggie or Bichette as "the guy" we break the mold on.

I'm not sure how much HOU like Duran (or Rafaela/Abreu) but getting Paredes and a LH'd RP'er might be the best we can do.

The idea of trading Duran for Paredes plus a reliever from Houston is interesting, and I don’t hate it. I can see Paredes at third base working. Is he as good as Bregman? No… and you’d unquestionably lose a lot of intangibles, leadership for Anthony and others as well. 

That said, if Bregman or Bichette truly aren’t realistic options (can’t believe I’m writing this sh*t) then a deal like this could make sense — but only if it’s paired with a legit SP2 signing. In this scenario, you almost have to go out and sign Ranger Suárez or Framber Valdez to compensate for the downgrade from last year at 3B. 

What is becoming clear to me is the idea that this team can meaningfully improve only through trades without eventually gutting the farm system. Every “controlled, cost-efficient” upgrade comes at the expense of multiple prospects, and that bill adds up fast. This is why the Yankees, Dodgers, 2004-2018 Red Sox were always in contention. They didn’t mortgage the future for the now. And they always spent in the now to stay in the window. That’s really the core issue.

There’s no scenario where this roster takes a true step forward without either 1. spending real money or 2. accepting real farm depletion. If ownership won’t spend, then the latter becomes inevitable — and that drastically shortens the championship window. 

Or maybe I’m being forced to confront a third reality…

Story time: When I was in high school, I played on a competitive basketball team made up of players from four different schools. One guy on the team was loud, aggressive, muscled up, and honestly kind of a douche. He was by far the least skilled player we had. If plus-minus had been tracked, I have no doubt he would’ve been dead last — and not even close. Most of us didn’t like playing with him. He took unnecessary chances on D, constantly forced you to ad lib from your assignment to cover for him… He was not a very skilled offensive player. But to his credit, he figured something out early: the coach valued guys who “cared loudly” Yelling. Emotional swings. Hustle. Fighting. Physicality. “Wanting it.” So even though he wasn’t good, the coach kept playing him.

One day at practice we were scrimmaging, and there was a loose ball headed out of bounds. It was obvious to everyone on the court — myself included — that the ball was gone. There was no angle, Usain Bolt wasn’t going to be able to save it, no chance anyone was getting within 10 feet of it. But this guy took off after it anyway. He sprinted, launched himself, and jumped straight into a garbage can on the sideline, cutting his forehead open above his eye. I’m not exaggerating when I say he was at least 12-15 feet away from the ball when it hit the ground out of bounds. Everyone was thinking the same thing: “Why the hell did he jump? That was weird??” Practice stopped. He went to get stitches. And the coach — completely blinded by what he thought was “hustle” — made the rest of us run ladders, yelling that we needed to be more like him. The guy ended up starting the next few games because of it.

That moment always stuck with me.

Because it taught me that sometimes it’s not about outcomes. It’s about performative effort for the person/ group you’re trying to appease. Which brings me to John Henry. By all accounts, he’s a very smart man. He knows what it takes to win at the MLB level — he’s done it before. So the question becomes: is this ownership group actually trying to win, or is this really just performative effort to keep Red Sox nation at bay?? Is the front office just jumping into the garbage can 12 feet from the ball? Time will tell, but if we don’t add at all by free agency, I think I’ve come to my conclusion.

[moonslav59]

15 minutes ago, UtahSox said:

The idea of trading Duran for Paredes plus a reliever from Houston is interesting, and I don’t hate it. I can see Paredes at third base working. Is he as good as Bregman? No… and you’d unquestionably lose a lot of intangibles, leadership for Anthony and others as well. 

That said, if Bregman or Bichette truly aren’t realistic options (can’t believe I’m writing this sh*t) then a deal like this could make sense — but only if it’s paired with a legit SP2 signing. In this scenario, you almost have to go out and sign Ranger Suárez or Framber Valdez to compensate for the downgrade from last year at 3B. 

What is becoming clear to me is the idea that this team can meaningfully improve only through trades without eventually gutting the farm system. Every “controlled, cost-efficient” upgrade comes at the expense of multiple prospects, and that bill adds up fast. This is why the Yankees, Dodgers, 2004-2018 Red Sox were always in contention. They didn’t mortgage the future for the now. And they always spent in the now to stay in the window. That’s really the core issue.

There’s no scenario where this roster takes a true step forward without either 1. spending real money or 2. accepting real farm depletion. If ownership won’t spend, then the latter becomes inevitable — and that drastically shortens the championship window. 

Or maybe I’m being forced to confront a third reality…

Story time: When I was in high school, I played on a competitive basketball team made up of players from four different schools. One guy on the team was loud, aggressive, muscled up, and honestly kind of a douche. He was by far the least skilled player we had. If plus-minus had been tracked, I have no doubt he would’ve been dead last — and not even close. Most of us didn’t like playing with him. He took unnecessary chances on D, constantly forced you to ad lib from your assignment to cover for him… He was not a very skilled offensive player. But to his credit, he figured something out early: the coach valued guys who “cared loudly” Yelling. Emotional swings. Hustle. Fighting. Physicality. “Wanting it.” So even though he wasn’t good, the coach kept playing him.

One day at practice we were scrimmaging, and there was a loose ball headed out of bounds. It was obvious to everyone on the court — myself included — that the ball was gone. There was no angle, Usain Bolt wasn’t going to be able to save it, no chance anyone was getting within 10 feet of it. But this guy took off after it anyway. He sprinted, launched himself, and jumped straight into a garbage can on the sideline, cutting his forehead open above his eye. I’m not exaggerating when I say he was at least 12-15 feet away from the ball when it hit the ground out of bounds. Everyone was thinking the same thing: “Why the hell did he jump? That was weird??” Practice stopped. He went to get stitches. And the coach — completely blinded by what he thought was “hustle” — made the rest of us run ladders, yelling that we needed to be more like him. The guy ended up starting the next few games because of it.

That moment always stuck with me.

Because it taught me that sometimes it’s not about outcomes. It’s about performative effort for the person/ group you’re trying to appease. Which brings me to John Henry. By all accounts, he’s a very smart man. He knows what it takes to win at the MLB level — he’s done it before. So the question becomes: is this ownership group actually trying to win, or is this really just performative effort to keep Red Sox nation at bay?? Is the front office just jumping into the garbage can 12 feet from the ball? Time will tell, but if we don’t add at all by free agency, I think I’ve come to my conclusion.

Nice post and story.

I think we will add a FA or two, but just under 4 years. (Maybe E Suarez and 2-3 yrs or Bassitt on a 1 year deal- maybe both, if we make another trade involving Crawford or Harrison and an OF'er.)

I do not see us signing Bregman or Bichette or trading for 5 years of KMarte and his contract.

I do think we can make one or two more significant trades without ruing the farm & future, but we have already compromised some of the future for 1-2 years or Gray, 2-3 years of Contreras and 2 years of Oviedo. We've shifted and replaced some farm pieces, but we still have Tolle, Early, Arias, Witherspoon, Valera and Gonzales. We replaced perales with Bennett, so we still have a very solid top 6 and some very promising other prospects farther away.

The other point to be made about trading away prospects is that we just graduated so many prospects that will be paid very little and have 5-6 years of control. Plus we've locked up 4 younger players: Anthony, Campbell, Bello & Rafaela.

If our recent grads were still prospects, we'd be a top 2-3 farm, if not #1.

Anthony, Mayer, Narvaez & Campbell just graduated. (2 are signed long term)

Abreu, Rafaela & Slaten graduated last season. (1 is locked up long term)

Duran, Bello, Crawford & Casas graduated in '22 or '23 and have 3 or more years of control. (Bello was extended long term)

That's 9-11 solid players that will not cost much for 3 or more years.

We do have some key players losing control in the next 1-3 years, but not some wild amount and not the best of our best:

1 year: Whitlock is very important. Sandoval is not.

1-2 yrs: Gray, Chapman

2 yrs: Oviedo, Houck (out for '26) Yoshida, Hicks (Only Contreras seems important)

2-3: Story

3: Duran, Crawford, Romy, Casas, Wong

Compared to other teams' situations, we look pretty well off, in terms of not having to replace lost and key players to free agency.

Some losses, like Sandoval, Yoshida and Hicks might be beneficial due to their contract costs vs value provided. Others like Gray, Oviedo, Houck and Story look to be close to equal vale vs cost to replace. Chapman and Whitlock are the difficult one. (I'll not speak to the 3 years players, right now.)

[JoeBrady]

7 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

They aren't getting a #2 for Duran

Is Lodolo a #2?  I think he is, and I think they could swap Duran for Lodolo.  Past that, you can't think in terms of a #2.  3 years of Duran should get about the best one-year #2 in BB.  Or 2 years of a decent+ #2.  Or three years of a weakish #2.  Control counts.

[JoeBrady]

3 hours ago, notin said:

I think I’d be questioning Breslow if he’s the reason that deal never happened.

It's impossible to know without knowing all the intricacies.  While I favor keeping Rafaela, all three of our outfielders are discussion-worthy.  And while all three are worthy of some type of #2, it's also possible that has his sights on a #1.  Or a high-ceiling prospect.  Or he could be looking for a 2B or 3B.  Or might want a #3 along with a 2B/3B.

You could be inside the FO and not really know which direction this is going.  Heck, Pitt, Cincy, or others might have a top prospect that Breslow loves, and is willing to play the long game.  Seth Hernandez for Abreu?

[JoeBrady]

3 hours ago, UtahSox said:

Because it taught me that sometimes it’s not about outcomes. It’s about performative effort for the person/ group you’re trying to appease.

It's been like that at most of my jobs.  I always did my job quietly and efficiently.  That seemed logical to me.  After some years, I realized some people got attached to performance.  I didn't like doing it, and still never got used to doing it, but it got to the point where I felt like a display of emotion was necessary for every assignment.

The quicker I could get a job finished, the less valued the product would be.  But if I could roll my eyes, curse under my breath, and watch the RS game for two hours, someone would pat me on the back and tell me what a great job I was doing.  /end of rant/

[Hitch]

5 hours ago, Hugh2 said:

Well seeing how this has turned into the Jarren Duran trade thread I'll keep this in here.

But at this point in time I think it makes MUCH more sense to trade Duran for offense, which he is but we need it at other positions. 

It makes a lot more sense to trade Duran (whether 2 team or 3 team trade) for a 2B or a 3B.  This team NEEDS and offensive upgrade much much more than it needs more pitching. 

I've thought for a while that if Duran is moved it would need to be for a 2nd or 3rd baseman. The only way I see it working for pitching, is if it is Duran and Bello for Ragans (or something similar). It would release a lot of money on the LT that would allow them to go and sign Bregman for $25m+. 

But otherwise it only really make sense to try and deal him for infield help. And that would likely need a 3rd team's involvement. 

[Hugh2]

Having a 4th outfielder doesn’t make sense defensively (accept for actual 4th5th outfielders) but in terms of the lineup keeping Duran in there raises the bar.  Now what to do with Yoshida…

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, JoeBrady said:

Is Lodolo a #2?  I think he is, and I think they could swap Duran for Lodolo.  Past that, you can't think in terms of a #2.  3 years of Duran should get about the best one-year #2 in BB.  Or 2 years of a decent+ #2.  Or three years of a weakish #2.  Control counts.

I think Lodolo is a legit #2. He has 2 arbs left to Duran's 3.

It's kinda hard to know if 2025's "career year" will be his best, but he apparently has real good "stuff." His 2.8 fWAR ranks 35th, so that looks like a #2. He had a 3.78 FIP (40th) He was 25th in xFIP.

If you combine 2024-2025, he still ranked T36th in fWAR at 4.9. He's 32nd in FIP at 3.85.

bWAR gave him a 4.9 for 2025! (6.1 for '24+'25)

I'd make this trade, but the pressure would be even higher to find a boost for the line-up with no Duran, Bregman, Devers, Ref and N Lowe and just Contreras added.

[moonslav59]

3 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

Having a 4th outfielder doesn’t make sense defensively (accept for actual 4th5th outfielders) but in terms of the lineup keeping Duran in there raises the bar.  Now what to do with Yoshida…

It's possible Duran will hit .775 in 2026, since he  hit .774, this year.

Yoshida has a .762 career OPS, so expecting .775 from him in 2026 is pretty close.

Of course, Duran adds tremendous speed and can create runs out of nowhere.

My point is this? How much is Duran worth to another team as an OF'er vs how much he upgrades our DH position from a .775 Yoshida (with Casas/Romy as DH depth?)

The answer seems obvious. We need to trade an OF'er, and it does not have to be Duran. The others offer better D than Duran.

[JoeBrady]

3 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

How much is Duran worth to another team as an OF'er

If Duran is not a starting outfielder, then he has little value.  But I'd even go so far to suggest that other teams will see him as a CF, enhancing his value even more.

[moonslav59]

9 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

If Duran is not a starting outfielder, then he has little value.  But I'd even go so far to suggest that other teams will see him as a CF, enhancing his value even more.

Exactly.

This is the reason a trade makes sense. Another team needs him more than we do.

[Hugh2]

14 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

It's possible Duran will hit .775 in 2026, since he  hit .774, this year.

Yoshida has a .762 career OPS, so expecting .775 from him in 2026 is pretty close.

Of course, Duran adds tremendous speed and can create runs out of nowhere.

My point is this? How much is Duran worth to another team as an OF'er vs how much he upgrades our DH position from a .775 Yoshida (with Casas/Romy as DH depth?)

The answer seems obvious. We need to trade an OF'er, and it does not have to be Duran. The others offer better D than Duran.

Duran could just as easily give you an OPS north of .800 and he adds value on the bases and in the field....tremendously compared to Yoshida. 

[Hitch]

I do not understand this argument Duran offers little value as a DH. He offers elite value on basepaths (as well as no small amount with the bat) and is great cover for two defensive positions in the outfield when we inevitably get injuries/players need a day off their feet.

Whether that amount to the same as the value you'd get in a trade is another matter, but let's cut this he has little value as a DH nonsense. He would be hugely valuable at very little cost.

[Hugh2]

43 minutes ago, Hitch said:

I do not understand this argument Duran offers little value as a DH. He offers elite value on basepaths (as well as no small amount with the bat) and is great cover for two defensive positions in the outfield when we inevitably get injuries/players need a day off their feet.

Whether that amount to the same as the value you'd get in a trade is another matter, but let's cut this he has little value as a DH nonsense. He would be hugely valuable at very little cost.

It's not my first choice, but he's fine there for a year.  It doesn't have to be permanent. Someone could still get traded once the season begins, someone could get hurt, or a trade could still be on the table for 2027, or he could return to the field. 

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, Hugh2 said:

Duran could just as easily give you an OPS north of .800 and he adds value on the bases and in the field....tremendously compared to Yoshida. 

Agreed- maybe even .850.

I also think Masa could hit .800, but there is more to value than OPS.

[urban cowboy]

Has anyone heard about Casas rehab progress ... will he be ready for Spring training? Way too early to give up on him, I think. If Contreras could catch 50 games, then the trade maybe makes sense. And we have Campbell hanging out to dry. We basically have position logjams and we're bringing in more .. .and trading away young pitching, which is where you want the logjam. Seems like there isn't a plan. I was excited to see the next generation ... not on-the-way-out Wilson Contreras and Sonny Gray. 

[moonslav59]

17 minutes ago, urban cowboy said:

Has anyone heard about Casas rehab progress ... will he be ready for Spring training? Way too early to give up on him, I think. If Contreras could catch 50 games, then the trade maybe makes sense. And we have Campbell hanging out to dry. We basically have position logjams and we're bringing in more .. .and trading away young pitching, which is where you want the logjam. Seems like there isn't a plan. I was excited to see the next generation ... not on-the-way-out Wilson Contreras and Sonny Gray. 

The Casas and Campbell questions are among the most intriguing and perhaps meaningful questions we have, besides who plays 3B.

Apparently Campbell has bulked up and is ready to explode on the scene.

The silence on Casas is deafening. I'm thinking May 1st might be too wishful. With Contreras at 1B and Masa's contract being what it is, giving him a long look to start the season makes the Casas wait not so urgent. I am very far from giving up on Casas, and we should not trade him, right now. I still think the guy can hit over .825 and hit 30+ bombs a year. What's not to like about 30+ bombs and a .350 OBP? (Okay, but we can ignore his horrific defense by DH'ing him.)

[Old Red]

17 minutes ago, urban cowboy said:

Has anyone heard about Casas rehab progress ... will he be ready for Spring training? Way too early to give up on him, I think. If Contreras could catch 50 games, then the trade maybe makes sense. And we have Campbell hanging out to dry. We basically have position logjams and we're bringing in more .. .and trading away young pitching, which is where you want the logjam. Seems like there isn't a plan. I was excited to see the next generation ... not on-the-way-out Wilson Contreras and Sonny Gray. 

The Red Sox have already said Contreras will have minimal times behind the plate, and I don’t think that means anywhere near 50 games. He is here to play mostly 1B, and DH some, and that makes the most sense since they didn’t give much of an effort to sign Alonso. I don’t really care what happens with KC rather in Boston, or somewhere else. If he turns out then great, but if not Meh.

[Behindenemylines]

On 12/23/2025 at 6:16 PM, Hugh2 said:

Having a 4th outfielder doesn’t make sense defensively (accept for actual 4th5th outfielders) but in terms of the lineup keeping Duran in there raises the bar.  Now what to do with Yoshida…

The roster allows for 26 players. Most teams (including the Sox) have 13 pitchers and 13 position players. Once the Bregman issue is resolved you will have a little bit of an idea of the 13 position players the Sox will have on the roster. I really think the Sox want to save the DH as a way to rotate different players to give everyone ABs. So any potential trade of Duran won't happen until Bregman issue is resolved.  I personally wouldn't trade Duran unless it's in a deal to get a #2 starter. Then you have the questions surrounding Casis, Yoshida, and Campbell. There are still a lot of moving parts and a lot of off season to answer some of these questions.

 

[JoeBrady]

2 hours ago, urban cowboy said:

I was excited to see the next generation ... not on-the-way-out Wilson Contreras and Sonny Gray. 

I like to see the kids as well.  But you will always need other players.  Every team seems to need pitchers, and Contreras is likely only here because of Casas' injury.

[Randy Red Sox]

On 12/22/2025 at 1:39 PM, moonslav59 said:

There is still time for more toe-dipping or a high dive. (Hopefully no belly-flops!)

now the hunt seems be for Donovan for 2B. A decent player but most importantly comes on a lower end salary. Let's give them our #2/3 SP

[JoeBrady]

32 minutes ago, Randy Red Sox said:

but most importantly comes on a lower end salary.

Donovan gets ~ $400k less in salary.

[Yaz Fan Since 67]

I know the trade is not recent and the conversation has moved on but I'll just say I'm OK with this move but not really excited about it.  I'm convinced so many infield throwing errors would have been avoided with a legit first baseman,  I think this move improves the overall infield defense.  So there's that.  But he's still below average offensively for a 1st baseman and we will be giving up a lot of power numbers at the position to our opponents.  

[moonslav59]

5 hours ago, Behindenemylines said:

The roster allows for 26 players. Most teams (including the Sox) have 13 pitchers and 13 position players. Once the Bregman issue is resolved you will have a little bit of an idea of the 13 position players the Sox will have on the roster. I really think the Sox want to save the DH as a way to rotate different players to give everyone ABs. So any potential trade of Duran won't happen until Bregman issue is resolved.  I personally wouldn't trade Duran unless it's in a deal to get a #2 starter. Then you have the questions surrounding Casis, Yoshida, and Campbell. There are still a lot of moving parts and a lot of off season to answer some of these questions.

 

I just can't see KC being on the 26 with just a platoon role, so something would have to happen.

It seems a waste to have Masa and Casas on the 26 at the same time, unless Contreras is on the IL.

Wong and Romy will take up two of the 4 bench slots, so there will be room for 2 from these three:

Casas or Masa (DH)

Campbell, Sogard or Eaton

[urban cowboy]

6 hours ago, Old Red said:

The Red Sox have already said Contreras will have minimal times behind the plate, and I don’t think that means anywhere near 50 games. He is here to play mostly 1B, and DH some, and that makes the most sense since they didn’t give much of an effort to sign Alonso. I don’t really care what happens with KC rather in Boston, or somewhere else. If he turns out then great, but if not Meh.

They also said they weren't interested in Bregman to Raffy ... Be interesting to see what happens if they find themselves in a pickle at catcher.