Tarik Skubal's Availability Poses An Interesting Red Sox Dilemma: Patience or Aggression?

[moonslav59]

I don't see RHBs Garcia & Campbell used at near straight platoons in 2026. They both need to play everyday to work out some kinks. Ref might come back, even if we make no OF trades. If we do, it's almost a no-brainer to bring him back, more so, if we trade RHB Rafaela (doubtful.)

If we trade two OF'er, I do think Brez & Cora consider Masa in LF as an option- maybe not FT, though. This scenario may become more likely, if we sign Schwarber. If we sign Alonso and Casas comes back strong, that would be another DH squeeze situation.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

From a front office standpoint -- especially one that works for John Henry -- can any serious Red Sox fan envision a scenario where they trade away their biggest strength and spend near half a billion on one free agent to replace them? 

No, really... 

... why not just keep the outfielders and blow all that dough filling the holes?

Can we sign Bregman, Bichette and King for half a bil?

[Duran Is The Man]

5 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

From a front office standpoint -- especially one that works for John Henry -- can any serious Red Sox fan envision a scenario where they trade away their biggest strength and spend near half a billion on one free agent to replace them? 

No, really... 

... why not just keep the outfielders and blow all that dough filling the holes?

Can we sign Bregman, Bichette and King for half a bil?

and Alonso. though Henry might have to dig under the seat cushions to find the cash to pay him.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

4 minutes ago, Duran Is The Man said:

and Alonso. though Henry might have to dig under the seat cushions to find the cash to pay him.

I was conceding that we'll have to accept a platoon somewhere or at least rely on improvement from within. 

If we don't trade an outfielder and just spend money, we'd have to live with maybe Romy/Casas at 1B/DH, along with a 4th and 5th (cough, Masa) outfielder rotated at DH -- or if we sign Alonso, then it's Romy/Mayer at 2B...

... this is all assuming they PAY TWO INFIELDERS, because we all know they need to ACQUIRE TWO INFIELDERS.

[drewski6]

5 hours ago, TedYazPapiMookie said:

Fenway Park presents challenges to each outfield position.  Yes, the ball hit directly at the CF is difficult especially if you don't get a good read from the sound off the bat, yes the corner outfield spots are hard to read due to the flight patterns from righties and lefties being so different plus in Fenway the side wall is very, very tough to read and avoid injury because it's so low in right field  Likewise for the back fence in right field.  I remember Evans being fearless in right field as was Mookie.  Abreu in my opinion is very conservative and slows too soon as he approaches both the back fence and side fence and that's why I will never consider him more than an average outfielder especially with all the errors compared to the other Red Sox outfielders.  One other issue for me with regard to Abreu is technique.  He momentarily blocks his line of sight to the ball when he goes back and to his left to reach over his head for a ball beyond him.  He often misses the ball, but no error is assessed due to the difficulty of the play according to the score keeper.  Mookie, Evans and Rafaela catch that same ball.

LF is a very tricky field in Fenway but for many different reasons than typical leftfield issues like the spin off the bat.  In LF, you have to be excellent at judging the depth of the fly off the bat to know if you play the ball off the wall or go to the wall and catch it.  Duran is NOT good at that.  That's why he needs to play centerfield.  Anthony, on the other hand, will always be in the line-up for his hitting so starting at a young age like other great Boston hitters, it makes great sense to play him in LF and learn the wall so he can come charging to the plate and catch the ball over his shoulder off the wall like Yaz did and throw a strike to the plate.  

The two strongest arms in the outfielders are Rafaela and Abreu.  Rafaela is much fast and quicker than Abreu so he can cover more ground.  He's also fearless unlike Abreu who hesitates as he approaches the wall.  Rafaela defensively can be every bit as good in RF as Mookie and maybe even better.  That's why I believe the outfield needs to be Anthony, Duran and Rafaela to maximize defense.  That outfield rivals Benny, JBJ and Mookie.

Nice, Fred! 

[drewski6]

1 hour ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Good post, with specific points that are legitimate concerns.

We didn't talk a lot about outfield arm strength and accuracy; Duran's is average at best. But the Sox won with plenty of fast centerfielders with average arms: Damon, Crisp, Ellsbury. They also had postseason teams with Lynn, Bradley and Rafaela, who had cannons. 

Obviously, Ceddanne's range and arm would be wasted in LF, but moving him to RF may not be optimizing his abilities in bigger ballparks. When the Sox moved Betts to RF it made sense, because JBJ had more experience in CF with Gold Glove jumps. Duran isn't that guy yet -- even as an elite athlete and converted second baseman like Mookie (though it's not fair to compare anyone to a first-ballot Hall of Famer, either).

What's best for the team? If Breslow isn't allowed to spend to fill all the holes this winter, then maybe multiple trades can still make the Sox a contender. If Boston is ready to commit to Garcia in RF -- or platoon him in LF with Yoshida -- then perhaps we could see separate trades for both Duran and Abreu in packages that stabilize an infield position and the pitching staff...

Good post.  I agree that Durans arm is a knock / demerits/ negative points, but not a deal breaker regarding him in CF.  But when you also factor in the lapses in focus, Im getting less comfortable.  I really thought he was an energy guy / leader and I was on here saying you all will appreciate Duran when we get to the postseason because you want a guy like that.  An alpha mentality.  I wanted to see him talking sh*t through the media (whatever happened to that?)

Instead I saw a guy who was NOT locked in neither at the plate nor in the field.  Small sample size, sure, but I didnt think he would have one of his "duran" moments in the playoffs, and that was a bad drop.

[drewski6]

32 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

From a front office standpoint -- especially one that works for John Henry -- can any serious Red Sox fan envision a scenario where they trade away their biggest strength and spend near half a billion on one free agent to replace them? 

No, really... 

... why not just keep the outfielders and blow all that dough filling the holes?

Can we sign Bregman, Bichette and King for half a bil?

Yes, 165m for breg, prob about 210m for bichette (because hes younger), so thats 375 and not sure on king but I doubt hes 125.  So if you are willing to spend a half bil prob have room for other moves too like Matz, refsnyder, cheap first baseman like Hoskins or Bell

[notin]

1 hour ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

From a front office standpoint -- especially one that works for John Henry -- can any serious Red Sox fan envision a scenario where they trade away their biggest strength and spend near half a billion on one free agent to replace them? 

No, really... 

... why not just keep the outfielders and blow all that dough filling the holes?

Can we sign Bregman, Bichette and King for half a bil?

And then we trade Story for a 1b!  
 

Which OF do we bench?

Also King might be the worst choice.  Coming off injury with a QO attached. Not exactly a long history of success.  No team will touch him except the Padres.  Hopefully you filled out your MLBTR Free Agent Prediction form accordingly…

[TedYazPapiMookie]

3 hours ago, Hugh2 said:

If someone goes down or get hurt, we could go from a glut of outfield players to having it be an area of need.  Still, in that scenario the outfield is still probably in better shape than the infield now.   If the Sox brough in a legit infielder and a legit ace by packaging up Duran/Abreu separately with some value added the team is going to be better off. 

I'm also open to the scenario, where the Sox trade two outfielders not named Roman for a 2b/3b and an SP2 and go out and sign someone like Kyle Tucker.  I'm not saying this is going to happen or these are the guys but imagine subtracting Abreu/Duran but adding Marte/Ryan/Tucker.  I think the team becomes a better team and can win 90 games, maybe even more if they retained Bregman to but now I might really be hitting the pipe. 

One thing to consider is the cash payroll is much lower than the luxury tax payroll.  If the Sox have a hard "cash budget" then they likley have more to spend than we are all guessing here because up until the draft pick penalties going above the LT threshold is just money, which they will spend up until a certain point. 

I think a more realistic situation is to expect one big signing (moderate to big) and one big trade and a few moves we didn't see coming in the mold of the Aroldis Chapmans of the world, which we saw from last year can work out sometimes. 

But I really do not like a Yoshida/Garcia platoon in LF.  Garcia might be a nice platoon player one day but I think he still needs to cook a little bit more

Injuries are always going to happen, and we've lost multiple outfielders in years past but if we trade Abreu we still have our big three Anthony, Duran and Rafaela plus Campbell, Yoshida (last choice to field) and of course Garcia.  That's excellent depth. 

I'm most concerned about 3B.  Breslow's greatest challenge because EVERYONE saw how many more games you can win with a decent 3B like Bregman compared to Devers.  We don't want to take a step back on defense and I think Mayer would be a big step back.  He needs to play 2B and back-up Story.  I'm still not convinced in a full season he would be better than Campbell but if he struggles the Red Sox have others like Campbell and Arias.

I hate Ryan but Marte would make Mayer expendable, and Tucker would make Duran expendable, but the payroll goes way up.  I still think priorities need to be:

1 - SP #2 and 3B

2 - Catcher (Move Narvaez to defensive back-up plays 1/3 of the games)

3 - A big bat upgrade at 1B, 2B or OF. (Alfonso, Marte or Tucker like you suggested)

4 - Reliever who can close as a back-up to Chapman

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

From a front office standpoint -- especially one that works for John Henry -- can any serious Red Sox fan envision a scenario where they trade away their biggest strength and spend near half a billion on one free agent to replace them? 

No, really... 

... why not just keep the outfielders and blow all that dough filling the holes?

Can we sign Bregman, Bichette and King for half a bil?

You wanna DH Duran?

[Nick]

37 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

You wanna DH Duran?

$281M(Yankees) vs $196M (Sox)....can we close the gap? And the Yankees still want Bellinger.

 

[moonslav59]

1 minute ago, Nick said:

$281M(Yankees) vs $196M (Sox)....can we close the gap? And the Yankees still want Bellinger.

 

I'm not concerned so much about what other teams are spending. I'm worried the yanks get Cole back and will make additions this winter.

I think we can get what we need by trading and spending. It's possible to do this without making major jumps in the spending rankings, but it might take just that.

Trade for K Marte and a #2 SP.

Sign Alonso or Schwarber plus another significant player.

We might get to the second tax line and still be far behind NYY, but I'd be fine.

 

[Nick]

3 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I'm not concerned so much about what other teams are spending. I'm worried the yanks get Cole back and will make additions this winter.

I think we can get what we need by trading and spending. It's possible to do this without making major jumps in the spending rankings, but it might take just that.

Trade for K Marte and a #2 SP.

Sign Alonso or Schwarber plus another significant player.

We might get to the second tax line and still be far behind NYY, but I'd be fine.

 

As an Indiana graduate, I'd love to have Schwarber. I'm little peeved that we haven't heard much about Sandoval.

[moonslav59]

9 minutes ago, Nick said:

 I'm little peeved that we haven't heard much about Sandoval.

No news is not usually good news with baseball injuries.

I still think if he's healthy, he'll have an inside track at the 4 slot and easily the 5 slot, bit that is a big "if."

[Larry Cook]

On 11/19/2025 at 2:57 PM, Hugh2 said:

The thing is Abreu never hit well against LHP even when he was exposed to them in the minors.  What makes Abreu different than the other platoon LHB who can't hit LHP???

Cora said 2026 is the year abreau proves he is a full time outfielder or just a platoon guy! 
 

not many platoon guys have 2 gold gloves!! 
 

is 2026 the high water mark for abreau’s value? 
 

 

[moonslav59]

26 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

Cora said 2026 is the year abreau proves he is a full time outfielder or just a platoon guy! 
not many platoon guys have 2 gold gloves!! 
is 2026 the high water mark for abreau’s value? 
 

How does Abreu play FT without trading an OF'er. Hell, we can't even platoon him and find enough playing time with Duran, Anthony and Rafaela.

BTW, RA and JD are also LHBs and Rafaela has reverse splits.

We are going to trade an OF'er, IMO.

[UtahSox]

2 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

How does Abreu play FT without trading an OF'er. Hell, we can't even platoon him and find enough playing time with Duran, Anthony and Rafaela.

BTW, RA and JD are also LHBs and Rafaela has reverse splits.

We are going to trade an OF'er, IMO.

You guys love your defensive outfielders with sub 700 OPS in Sept/ October. Need to trade 1, I suspect if the rest of league valued Abreu like we do on Talking Sox he’d already be in a different uniform. 
Assuming they are valued similarly by teams. Least impactful trade to 2026 success. 

1. Rafaela

2. Abreu (could and would flip flop to #1, if we sign Schwarber) 

3. Duran 

 

 

[moonslav59]

25 minutes ago, UtahSox said:

You guys love your defensive outfielders with sub 700 OPS in Sept/ October. Need to trade 1, I suspect if the rest of league valued Abreu like we do on Talking Sox he’d already be in a different uniform. 
Assuming they are valued similarly by teams. Least impactful trade to 2026 success. 

1. Rafaela

2. Abreu (could and would flip flop to #1, if we sign Schwarber) 

3. Duran 

 

Huh?

I'm all for trading one or two.

[JoeBrady]

On 11/19/2025 at 11:31 AM, Hugh2 said:

Detroit is never going to part with Skubal for just Duran no matter what math you use. 

I agree.  But just because they want more, doesn't mean I'll pay more, for just one year.

[JoeBrady]

On 11/19/2025 at 1:51 PM, notin said:

Duran for a #2 starter as a standalone deal makes no sense. Any team acquiring Duran wants to get better now. Teams trying to get better now do not deal their #2 starter.  A third team is a necessity…

Teams like Cincy & Pitt have way more pitching than hitting.  It's like asking why Boston would trade one of their best players if we are trying to compete.  It's all about fit.

[JoeBrady]

On 11/19/2025 at 3:19 PM, TedYazPapiMookie said:

BUT Boston is better off including the often injured Mayer with the big rep and poor performance so far in Boston for Arias.  

I agree.  I always think in terms of how the other teams view our players.  Other teams might love Tolle and dislike Early, and vice versa.  In this example, if Mayer got us 20% more in value over Arias, I'd be very comfortable keeping Arias.

[JoeBrady]

On 11/19/2025 at 3:44 PM, notin said:

Really?  The 3 WAR outfielder with 2 GGs and 25 HR pop is the least desirable? Either I’m overrating him or teams like Rafaela more than I expected…

That's because Duran and Ceddanne are both CFs.  Abreu is a great glove, but RFs are less in demand.

[JoeBrady]

On 11/21/2025 at 9:31 AM, moonslav59 said:

I don't see RHBs Garcia & Campbell used at near straight platoons in 2026. They both need to play everyday to work out some kinks. Ref might come back, even if we make no OF trades. If we do, it's almost a no-brainer to bring him back, more so, if we trade RHB Rafaela (doubtful.)

If we trade two OF'er, I do think Brez & Cora consider Masa in LF as an option- maybe not FT, though. This scenario may become more likely, if we sign Schwarber. If we sign Alonso and Casas comes back strong, that would be another DH squeeze situation.

It could work.  I doubt we trade two OFs, but if the opportunity was too good to pass up, then Ceddanne, Anthony, and a LF platoon of Yoshi/Ref is something I can live with.  See if Duran can land us a #2 with control, and see if Abreu can land us a power IF bat with control (I see no matchups).

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, JoeBrady said:

It could work.  I doubt we trade two OFs, but if the opportunity was too good to pass up, then Ceddanne, Anthony, and a LF platoon of Yoshi/Ref is something I can live with.  See if Duran can land us a #2 with control, and see if Abreu can land us a power IF bat with control (I see no matchups).

To be honest, I'd rather trade two OF'ers than none. It is that clear to me that one needs to go.

We also have Campbell and Garcia, who I probably trust more than others. Both are RHB with lots of promise. I'm also more okay with Masa in LF than most, as long as it is not the only option, and with Campbell and Garcia, it shouldn't be.

Now, I'm not for handing 2 away. I'm thinking large package deals for two key players like KMarte plus Ryan or Lodolo- maybe Mitch Keller at worst. Masa in LF also opens up a slot for Schwarber, or if we sign Alonso, Casas can DH.

Assume we trade Duran & Abreu, and get Ryan, KMarte and Alonso:

1. Anthony, 2. KMarte, 3. Casas, 4. Alonso, 5. Story, 6. Masa, 7. Narvaez, 8 Mayer, 9. Rafaela

Assume we trade Duran & Rafaela: our O is better but the D is worse: LF Masa/Garcia or KC CF Anthony RF Abreu

Assume Abreu and Rafaela: LF Masa/RHB, CF Duran, RF Anthony

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, JoeBrady said:

That's because Duran and Ceddanne are both CFs.  Abreu is a great glove, but RFs are less in demand.

IMO, Duran slipped on D. I think he is a LF'er, but is acceptable in CF.

[Hugh2]

7 hours ago, JoeBrady said:

I agree.  But just because they want more, doesn't mean I'll pay more, for just one year.

You won’t? Is that you Craig?

[JoeBrady]

12 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

IMO, Duran slipped on D. I think he is a LF'er, but is acceptable in CF.

IMO, his skillset translates to CF better.  Speed v reaction time.

[moonslav59]

22 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

IMO, his skillset translates to CF better.  Speed v reaction time.

I think he has slipped on the routes he takes. His arm is too weak.

He's okay, but better in LF, IMO. He's the worst defender of the 4. (5 counting Garcia)

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

2 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I think he has slipped on the routes he takes. His arm is too weak.

He's okay, but better in LF, IMO. He's the worst defender of the 4. (5 counting Garcia)

The thing is, we don't know how other teams value Duran's defense. Maybe it hasn't slipped; maybe '24 -- when he looked good in CF while Ceddanne played infield -- was the outlier, and '25 more the norm. We all know how much Duran struggled with negative dWAR out there in parts of three seasons before '24...

... couple this with other concerns about his make-up (not his tats), and he may not be the desirable trade target we think -- at least not for a significant return.

[moonslav59]

13 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

The thing is, we don't know how other teams value Duran's defense. Maybe it hasn't slipped; maybe '24 -- when he looked good in CF while Ceddanne played infield -- was the outlier, and '25 more the norm. We all know how much Duran struggled with negative dWAR out there in parts of three seasons before '24...

... couple this with other concerns about his make-up (not his tats), and he may not be the desirable trade target we think -- at least not for a significant return.

Yes, all it takes is one GM to think he's good in CF, but more likely, many GMs think he'll be very good in their LF.

Duran has a lot of value. He has some power, gets on base enough and uses his speed to cause trouble on the basepaths.

I do not think his defense is the selling point or the make or break issue.