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Posted
27 minutes ago, Randy Red Sox said:

so your solution is what?? 

Ive posted many, mostly revolving around signing either Alonso or Bregman…

Posted
1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

Who could be our next Crochet?

I'd accept a 26, 27 or even 28 year old in a trade and extension.

Peralta turns 30 in June and has 1 year left- not two like Crochet had.

Ryan turns 30 in June, but he has 2 years left.

Lodolo turns 28 before the season and has 2 years.

Skubal just turned 29 and 1 year.

None of these guys come very close to the Crochet situation.

Skenes isn't even 24 and is pre arb (4 years to go) but PIT is not shopping him,

HOU is not shopping 28 year old Hunter Brown (3 arbs to go)

Ragans turns 28 soon. He has 3 years left. 

Hunter Greene is just 26 and is locked up for 3 years with options. I just don't see CIN trading him, unless we blow them away.

Kirby turns 28 and Gore 27  in FEB,  Bibee turns 27 in March. Woo turns 26 in Jan.

None of these guys will be easy to pry from their current teams. Is it worth making a massive overkill offer to get one?

Early turns 24 in April.

Tolle just turned 23 this month.

Why can't it be one of those guys... by the time we have legitimate big league regulars at the other 9 positions?

(I should've put quotes around that line, since I bet someone in a conference room already asked that in a front office meeting discussing this very topic).

Posted
1 hour ago, Old Red said:

Who’s to say it would be a massive overkill? Your Bible BTV?🤭 I could care less if it was a SO Called overkill, or not and that includes involving Anthony if it made the Red Sox better. 
 

I'm not against a massive overpay, BTV or otherwise.

Most of the trades I suggest are BTV overpays.

I'm not sure many of the younger pitchers I listed are "available," but I'd kick the tires.

I thought the Crochet deal was an overpay, but I was fine with it. I did say, "We better extend him or risk it being a bad trade."

Posted
25 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Early turns 24 in April.

Tolle just turned 23 this month.

Why can't it be one of those guys... by the time we have legitimate big league regulars at the other 9 positions?

(I should've put quotes around that line, since I bet someone in a conference room already asked that in a front office meeting discussing this very topic).

I'm not ignoring them or offering them in trades (hardly at all,) but we need a solid #2, and I'd prefer a younger guy than Sale, Merrill Kelly of some other 30+ pitcher.

Posted
30 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I'm not against a massive overpay, BTV or otherwise.

Most of the trades I suggest are BTV overpays.

I'm not sure many of the younger pitchers I listed are "available," but I'd kick the tires.

I thought the Crochet deal was an overpay, but I was fine with it. I did say, "We better extend him or risk it being a bad trade."

You guys crack me up with all this overpay talk just, because BTV says so. BTV in reality means nothing IMO. I also disagree that Crochet was a So Called overpay. Can you guys make a decision on any trades without consulting BTV? If not OMG.🙈

Posted
7 minutes ago, Old Red said:

You guys crack me up with all this overpay talk just, because BTV says so. BTV in reality means nothing IMO. I also disagree that Crochet was a So Called overpay. Can you guys make a decision on any trades without consulting BTV? If not OMG.🙈

You crack me up saying you don't care about values then erupt over it.

I said BTV or otherwise, meaning BTV doesn't really matter.

I'm willing to give more than what many feel is warranted to get a guy like Greene, Skenes or Hunter Brown. "More than" may be subjective and mean something different to you over someone else. You don't think we understand that?

What would you give for Skenes?

Greene?

Brown?

I fully expect another non answer.

Posted
30 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

You crack me up saying you don't care about values then erupt over it.

I said BTV or otherwise, meaning BTV doesn't really matter.

I'm willing to give more than what many feel is warranted to get a guy like Greene, Skenes or Hunter Brown. "More than" may be subjective and mean something different to you over someone else. You don't think we understand that?

What would you give for Skenes?

Greene?

Brown?

I fully expect another non answer.

I hear BTV all the time on here. Can’t you make a decision on your own without consulting something like BTV to tell you if the trade is any good, or not? I don’t throw spaghetti against the wall like you do to see if something should actually stick, and the Red Sox would actually do. Most of the suggestions have NO chance of happening like getting Skenes, Skubal, or the Yam Man a few years ago. How about trying to suggest, predict' or regurgitate what you think JH will actually do money wise. I wait until the Red Sox actually do something, and decide if it is good' or not. The only thing I said I’d do if healthy was to put Mayer at SS (everyday), and Story at 2B, and go from there.👋

Posted
1 minute ago, Old Red said:

I hear BTV all the time on here. Can’t you make a decision on your own without consulting something like BTV to tell you if the trade is any good, or not?

I'm not even a paying member of BTV, so I do not have access to the values of all players.

I make suggestions all the time without using BTV, Sometimes others point out the BTV over/underpay.

I knew you'd deliver a non answer.

We are all fully aware that our suggestions have a teenie tiny chance of ever happening, but we like to get specific with our suggestions instead of just overgeneralized criticism of others' idea or actual Sox moves made.

I have come out and said guys like Skenes, Greene, Brown and others are not available, unless a gross overpay is offered. I'm not sure how you take this to mean we can or will trade for one. I'm saying we won't.

Deals like Crochet come along, every so often. We all knew he was available, so that makes that type of deal more predictable, and we saw plenty of predictions/suggestions (however you want to view them) and I don't think anyone came close to the actual haul needed to get him.

I think most felt it was a lot to give, but we knew it would take a lot. Many felt we overpaid. Some who felt that (like me) thought it was still worth it. My own opinion was that it risked being a gross overpay, if we did not extend him at a reasonable cost. I still think that. We kinda wasted his first year with us by not going all in. Had we not extended him, we'd have a one year window with him, and a gloomy outlook for 2027 and beyond with a team without Teel and the others we gave the CWS.

We all have differing views on value and trades made or suggested. Yous eem to indicate you don't care for much of what we discuss or suggest, but then seem to get upset when we do.

Posted
On 11/20/2025 at 12:28 PM, drewski6 said:

Im just not going to be the dude on here defending billionaires because I believe nobody should hoard that much wealth. It hurts all of us to take that kind of wealth out of circulation.

It doesn't.  Most everything I do everyday gets done because of people that are billionaires, or really rich if they aren't billionaires.  We don't have these conversations if not for people like Gates, Dell, Ellison, etc.  I don't have a Dick Tracy phone without Steve Jobs. Do you think you'd have any of this is these people stopped working after they made their first billion?

But just for fun, try living for a week without any of the toys that are supplied by people that have made a lot of money off of it.  No Windows OS, no Dell computer, no HP printer, no Apple phone, nothing that was delivered to you by Amazon.

Posted
11 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

CT has some Sox lairs, too.

I use to have visit our plant in Berlin, CT.  I never gave it much thought until I showed up in a RS jersey.  The amount of yelling (good-natured) back and forth was astonishing.  They considered their little village the cut-off between NY & Boston.

Posted
10 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Who could be our next Crochet?

You need to gamble.  There were a lot of RS fans that wanted nothing to do with Crochet because of a lack of proven history.  If we want to get our next Crochet, we need to go to unproven guys with huge potential.  I'd be looking at guys like Bubba Chandler or Chase Burns.

Posted
7 hours ago, Old Red said:

I hear BTV all the time on here. Can’t you make a decision on your own without consulting something like BTV to tell you if the trade is any good, or not?

BTV is just a fun tool to give you a ballpark idea of what a deal is worth.  Don't overrate it, but it's like so many other BB metrics.  They have value so long as you look at it from a 3rd party perspective.

Posted
24 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

You need to gamble.  There were a lot of RS fans that wanted nothing to do with Crochet because of a lack of proven history.  If we want to get our next Crochet, we need to go to unproven guys with huge potential.  I'd be looking at guys like Bubba Chandler or Chase Burns.

I love taking chances like the Crochet trade, and to me, the extensions was just as important and a bit ballzy.

I'd love to see us trade for another younger SP'er this winter.

Posted
6 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

BTV is just a fun tool to give you a ballpark idea of what a deal is worth.  Don't overrate it, but it's like so many other BB metrics.  They have value so long as you look at it from a 3rd party perspective.

I enjoyed BTV, until they wanted money to play around.

You cans till look at trade proposals and get a feel for some player values, but you can't see the team lists or make trades yourself. That was kinda fun. I always tried to give the other team more value, and often times more people gave a thumbs down on the Sox side of the trade, so I think I was being realistic.

I see they think Duran for Lodolo is a gross overpay by the Sox, but I'd do it.

Duran for KMarte is pretty close, too. I'd jump at that and add Harrison.

I don't get why a bunch of fans playing around with trade suggestions upsets Red, so much.

Posted
10 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

 

I don't get why a bunch of fans playing around with trade suggestions upsets Red, so much.

He gets pissy when we don’t base stuff like that on RBIs…

Posted
18 hours ago, Old Red said:

I hear BTV all the time on here. Can’t you make a decision on your own without consulting something like BTV to tell you if the trade is any good, or not? I don’t throw spaghetti against the wall like you do to see if something should actually stick, and the Red Sox would actually do. Most of the suggestions have NO chance of happening like getting Skenes, Skubal, or the Yam Man a few years ago. How about trying to suggest, predict' or regurgitate what you think JH will actually do money wise. I wait until the Red Sox actually do something, and decide if it is good' or not. The only thing I said I’d do if healthy was to put Mayer at SS (everyday), and Story at 2B, and go from there.👋

Why the anger towards BTV?  It’s not the end-all-be-all trade reference, but it’s a good source that takes into account performance and salary, which teams do care about.  Is it 100% accurate or 100% definitive? Absolutely not, for multiple reasons.  Like it cannot tell you if certain teams like certain players.  Heck at its core, it uses projections like Steamer and projections are often inaccurate.

But it’s a nice third party reality check.  And when it says a trade is “Fair” that can be reported as fact, in that it is a fact that BTV said the trade was fair.  No one is using as definitive. And that becomes apparent when people complain about it.  To me, there is a huge difference between saying “BTV calls it an overpay” ( where I am reporting factual output from a neutral third party) vs saying “that trade is a huge overpay” (which could easily just be my opinion, supported or unsupported)…

Posted
11 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I see they think Duran for Lodolo is a gross overpay by the Sox, but I'd do it.

I'm more of the opinion that it is a modest overpay, but the fit is compelling.  I would do it, but I'd be a lot happier if Cincy threw in a decent lottery ticket, or if we could reasonably extend Lodolo for 3-4 years.

Posted
1 hour ago, notin said:

Why the anger towards BTV?  It’s not the end-all-be-all trade reference, but it’s a good source that takes into account performance and salary, which teams do care about.  Is it 100% accurate or 100% definitive? Absolutely not, for multiple reasons.  Like it cannot tell you if certain teams like certain players.  Heck at its core, it uses projections like Steamer and projections are often inaccurate.

But it’s a nice third party reality check.  And when it says a trade is “Fair” that can be reported as fact, in that it is a fact that BTV said the trade was fair.  No one is using as definitive. And that becomes apparent when people complain about it.  To me, there is a huge difference between saying “BTV calls it an overpay” ( where I am reporting factual output from a neutral third party) vs saying “that trade is a huge overpay” (which could easily just be my opinion, supported or unsupported)…

Exactly, nobody has said or believes that if BTV says the trade is acceptable, it is balanced or likely to happen.

I have very strong feelings about some of their ratings being way off, but that is no different from my feelings towards some people's opinions on players' values, too. Probably, BTV is more accurate than any one of us alone. (You and MVP would probably object to this... LOL.)

I don't know as much about players on other teams, so BTV numbers kinda set a range of what might be possible, but as you pointed out many times, it does not factor in how much a GM values the player or a team's needs or short/long term plans.

I'd like to think I know the Sox players pretty well, so here are some issues I have with BTV on these ratings: (These are values I could find by looking at trade suggestions made by others, since I am not a paying member)

61 Anthony

55 Mayer

50 Duran

33 Early

31 Rafaela

26 Abreu

23 Tolle, Campbell

22 Arias

18 Witherspoon

17 Crawford

16 Garcia, Clarke

14 Casas (I'd say this is high,)

12 Perales, Romy

10 Harrison

9 Cespedes (way too high)

8 Fitts, Phillips,  Romero (seems high)

7 J Gonzales

6 Sandlin, Eyanson

5 Sandoval

4 Weissert, Godbout, Dobbins (seems low)

-3 Luis Castillo

-18 Hicks (He's owed $24M, so looks about right)

-25 Yoshida (He's owed $36M, so this seems about right)

-37 Story

I wonder what Bello, Valera, Fajardo, Paez and Holobetz are valued. I'm sure Crochet is worth more than 60 or 70, even at his cost.

Targets or Dreams

127 Skenes (Anthony + Mayer?)

82 H Greene (Mayer + Campbell?)

79 Ragans (Duran + Arias?)

61 K Marte (Duran + Harrison?)

61 Skubal (1yr) Mayer?

53 Joe Ryan (Duran via 3rd team or Campbell + Arias?)

48 Gore (Duran?)

45 Gilbert

39 G Willimas

31 Lodolo (Campbell + DHam?)

27 Peralta (1yr) Abreu?

26 Luzardo (Abreu?)

18 Sale (Harrison + Fitts?)

17 P Lopez (Garcia or Clarke?)

14 Ja Jones (Casas or Garcia?)

12 Bubic (Perales?)

9 M Keller (Harrison?)

-9 S Gray (Dobbins + Hicks?)

-12 S Murphy (match with Hicks?)

-24 W Contreras (match with Yoshida?)

Posted
13 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Duran for KMarte is pretty close, too. I'd jump at that and add Harrison.

 

it’s been my experience that trades always push into pain threshold so what about this?

K Marte for Duran, Harrison and Witherspoon or Perales? You still doing it??
 I am……. Especially if we could pull it off right now. (While still negotiating with Bregman/ Alonso) I’m also of the belief that Bregman wants to be a Red Sox. Boras now knowing MM is slotted at 3rd helps our negotiating power. 

Posted
10 minutes ago, UtahSox said:

it’s been my experience that trades always push into pain threshold so what about this?

K Marte for Duran, Harrison and Witherspoon or Perales? You still doing it??
 I am……. Especially if we could pull it off right now. (While still negotiating with Bregman/ Alonso) I’m also of the belief that Bregman wants to be a Red Sox. Boras now knowing MM is slotted at 3rd helps our negotiating power. 

I'd probably give all 4.

KMarte's AAV would help us be able to spend more for years to come. He might be better than Alonso, despite being a year older. I'd love to get KMarte & Alonso plus a trade for Lodolo or Ryan.

Campbell, Garcia & Clarke for Ryan

or

Abreu + DHam for Lodolo (Maybe Garcia + Crawford)

Posted
1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

I'd probably give all 4.

KMarte's AAV would help us be able to spend more for years to come. He might be better than Alonso, despite being a year older. I'd love to get KMarte & Alonso plus a trade for Lodolo or Ryan.

Campbell, Garcia & Clarke for Ryan

or

Abreu + DHam for Lodolo (Maybe Garcia + Crawford)

The problem with trading for Ryan is that Minnesota doesn't need to move him this winter.

If Ryan had one year left before free agency, they might accept Campbell, Garcia and Clarke -- prospects with nothing but promise.

Unfortunately, prying Joe Ryan away from the Twins has to be more painful than that. Like when the White Sox insisted on Teel to complete the Crochet deal -- after Montgomery already headlined the package.

Surely, Minny is starting any discussions demanding both Tolle and Early, MLB-almost-ready starting pitchers...

Posted
23 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

The problem with trading for Ryan is that Minnesota doesn't need to move him this winter.

If Ryan had one year left before free agency, they might accept Campbell, Garcia and Clarke -- prospects with nothing but promise.

Unfortunately, prying Joe Ryan away from the Twins has to be more painful than that. Like when the White Sox insisted on Teel to complete the Crochet deal -- after Montgomery already headlined the package.

Surely, Minny is starting any discussions demanding both Tolle and Early, MLB-almost-ready starting pitchers...

I think MN will trade Ryan and take the best offer. I do not think anyone offers near Tolle + Early, and we won't need to.

Campbell, Clarke and Harrison gets it done.

Posted
On 11/22/2025 at 11:42 AM, notin said:

Ive posted many, mostly revolving around signing either Alonso or Bregman…

actually i read your post to be against signing either given the length of contract they would likely get. Did I Interpret it wrong?

Posted

I've been on a rant about getting one from KMarte, Alonso or Schwarber, but getting two plus a #2 SP would be fantastic. Maybe get Ryan or Lodolo for Campbell plus.

1. L Anthony LF

2. S KMarte 2B

3. L Duran DH

4. R Alonso 1B

5. L Abreu RF

6. R Story SS

7. L Mayer 3B/R Romy 3B

8. R Narvaez C

9. R Rafaela CF

Bench: Wong, Masa, Romy, DHam

SP: Crochet, Ryan, Bello, 2 from: Sandoval, Crawford, Harrison, Dobbins, Perales, Early, Tolle

RP: Chapman, Whitlock, Slaten, Weissert, Criswell, Moran, Hicks, 1 from Kelly, Sandlin or SP

Posted
3 hours ago, Randy Red Sox said:

actually i read your post to be against signing either given the length of contract they would likely get. Did I Interpret it wrong?

Well, Ive probably called both bad contracts waiting to happen at some point.  Ive predicted thr Sox sign one or the other.  I could see them signing Alonso because, as a 1b, he will command a smaller deal than Bregman.  But they had this exact choice lasts year, and the Sox signed Bregman, so I could see that happening again…

Posted
On 11/22/2025 at 5:19 PM, moonslav59 said:

I think they decided after the Sale & Nate, which was 2019, that they were not going to spend for a while. Maybe they convinced themselves they could still stay "competitive enough," but once they dumped Betts and half-Price, they must have know no rings were forthcoming.

The 2021 season gave them cover. It was hard to argue we were no longer competitive, and they ran with that while making some strategic moderate "buys" just when the fanbase seemed about to revolt.

If you look at the Sox spending trends under JH, you sill see several downturns in spending, but most did not last long. We seemed to be cycling our spending when ring seasons seemed more probable. 2013 was an outlier, as we cut spending and still won. 2019 was somewhat of an illusion as spending went up (Sale + nate deals) but we failed to return Kimbrel and Kelly and the roster was worse.

When you factor in inflation we have had a very long downturn and are still way behind our 2019 budget total. The actual total budget is higher than 2015, and the end of year budget in 2025  was slightly higher than 2016 and 2017, but that is no defense for JH.

Here are the years the Sox went over the lux tax line:

2004, 2005, 2006, 2007

under for 2 years

2010 & 2011

under for 3 years

2015 & 2016

under for 1

2018 & 2019

under for 2

2022 (over by 1.2 M- a mistake?)

under for 2

2025 (not over by much)

This shows a shift in "trends."

If we go over in 2025, it will be the first time back-to-back in 6 years.

There have been some ups and downs along these last 6 years- most significant from 2021 to 2022 (Story signing) and from 2024 to 2025 (several signings and the Devers extension.)

I know I have used the phrase "make or break" for JH a few times, in recent winters, and the big jump in spending last winter was an encouraging sign, but now that Devers was dumped and Bregman & Gio opted out, we are back in that familiar place again- wondering what JH will do.

The long extensions to young stars over the past 2+ seasons is nice, but we need to do better than last winter. To me, it's time for at least one large and long contract, and I'm not talking Trevor Story or Yoshida levels. We can't stop there. While one L & L deal is essential, we need to find a way to add at least 2 more significant players- somehow/someway.

The Sox are on the clock.

Again, there were costly and consistent mistakes made by DD and Bloom that put a huge financial burned on us (not to mention dud trades). At no point, short of spending an absolute fortune, did it look to me like the Red Sox were in a position to start winning consistently. I imagine it looked the same to Henry. So he likely did the smart, if not painful thing and waited. At least that's how I see it. You see it as a sham and some conspiracy against e fans. I know which seems most likely to me.

If he doesn't spend now, he will rightly be hammered. Let's see.

Posted
6 hours ago, Hitch said:

Again, there were costly and consistent mistakes made by DD and Bloom that put a huge financial burned on us (not to mention dud trades). At no point, short of spending an absolute fortune, did it look to me like the Red Sox were in a position to start winning consistently. I imagine it looked the same to Henry. So he likely did the smart, if not painful thing and waited. At least that's how I see it. You see it as a sham and some conspiracy against e fans. I know which seems most likely to me.

If he doesn't spend now, he will rightly be hammered. Let's see.

Well said. Next step in this thinking, which move/contract was most instrumental in causing the financial burden while offering little hope of producing near his cost?

It was the largest and longest free agent contract in Red Sox history. (Okay, Manny's was a year longer, but he was pre JH. Carl Crawford was equally as long at 7 years) but nobody was Larger and Longer. It was David Price- the guy we ended up attaching to the Betts trade, which was the clear sign the team was punting, especially when we have yet to replace his production value.

I'm pretty sure JH told himself, "never again." The Sale extension pales in comparison to Price. The JD, Story and Yoshida deals, too. The Devers extension was larger and longer, and we see what JH ended up doing with that contract, less than 2 years into the 10 year deal. (Okay, it was Brez not JH, but you know JH gave his stamp of approval.)

What remains to be seen is do we replace the Devers value, along with Bregman's and Gio's, too. Just how Large and how Long will JH approve? I think age has a lot to do with it as Devers was young and Crochet's 6 year deal was approved at a young age, too. There are not many young free agents out there. Five or six years might be pushing it, and many of the very best FAs get 7 or more. If we do spend big, and that is no given, and we don't go large and long, the usually leads to quantity over quality, to some extent, and in my opinion we have the "quantity" well covered already and need to add some serious star quality to the 26. I've said 3, and if we go 4-5 instead, and the budget was fixed, it will likely mean lower quality, shorter deals and kicking some major decisions down the road.

One thing that could happen is that older FAs like Schwarber can be signed for less than 7 years, but his age is big stumbling block to go 6 years or maybe even 5. Alonso turns 31, and maybe nobody offers him 7 years- maybe not even 6. Bregman turns 32 before the season, so I doubt we go 5 with him- maybe not even 4. Bichette fits the age range (turns 28 before the season) but does not give us the power bat we need. He might be a great secondary signing, but are we really going to sign someone to 7 years that isn't even "the guy" we need most?

We could trade for Ketel Marte, who is 32 and under control for a few more years, but then we lose some serious talent going to AZ. E Suarez is 34 and may not deliver the production we need for the next 3-4 years. He will likely sign for 3-5 years. Polanco is 32 and there are worries that 2025 was an outlier season. He may get 3-5 years or take a huge one year deal like Bregman to try and make big the following winter.

There are a lot of considerations going on. This should be an interesting Sox winter.

Posted

If JH can't get over the David Price contract, even though the Sox make the 3rd most money in MLB year in and year out, he should sell the team.

Posted
On 11/22/2025 at 10:47 PM, JoeBrady said:

It doesn't.  Most everything I do everyday gets done because of people that are billionaires, or really rich if they aren't billionaires.  We don't have these conversations if not for people like Gates, Dell, Ellison, etc.  I don't have a Dick Tracy phone without Steve Jobs. Do you think you'd have any of this is these people stopped working after they made their first billion?

But just for fun, try living for a week without any of the toys that are supplied by people that have made a lot of money off of it.  No Windows OS, no Dell computer, no HP printer, no Apple phone, nothing that was delivered to you by Amazon.

🥾👅

Posted
On 11/22/2025 at 2:14 PM, moonslav59 said:

I'm not ignoring them or offering them in trades (hardly at all,) but we need a solid #2, and I'd prefer a younger guy than Sale, Merrill Kelly of some other 30+ pitcher.

I think Early qualifies as a younger guy.

Not sure if the pros of Merrill Kelly over Early outweigh the cons.  And really, the same could be saud for Sale.

If the Sox get Ryan or Lodolo, thats different.  Or maybe even if they get Brady Singer.  But far too many names pop up that make me think “just go with Early.”

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