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Posted
On 11/27/2025 at 1:31 PM, Hugh2 said:

As in…..almost a #1?

24th in fWAR, so a #1.

39th in ERA-, so a mid #2

Combined: borderline 1-2, in theory.

Best part about him? He might get just a 1-2 year deal.

Posted
On 11/25/2025 at 7:17 AM, mvp 78 said:

I think Breslow would prefer if Kelly was his 3 and someone younger with a higher whiff rate as his 2. 

I would, too.

I'm thinking of miser Henry (not mister Henry)

Posted
38 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

24th in fWAR, so a #1.

39th in ERA-, so a mid #2

Combined: borderline 1-2, in theory.

Best part about him? He might get just a 1-2 year deal.

I don't disagree that Kelly is really good,  but my position on what consitutes a #1 has shifted the last year. 

If we got by 1-30 in FWar for a #1 and 31-60 for a #2 so on and so forth, we get bottom of the barrel pitchers before we get to what a "#4 starter" should be. 

Think of it this way, only 52 pitchers even qualified last year.  Only 38 of those guys had a WAR above 2.0

I think what us fans consider a #1 pitcher isn't something there are 30 of, but rather maybe 10 any given season. 

Posted

If we used a multi year scale, only 13 pitchers in all of baseball have put up a 10+ War the past 3 season combined. 

One of them is named Sonny Gray

Posted

For me, the only real worry about Gray is his age, and he's the type of pitcher who ages well because he doesn't rely on velocity.  He could easily put up 4-5 WAR this year
 

I yearn for more, but people have been underestimating this move. 

Posted
53 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

I don't disagree that Kelly is really good,  but my position on what consitutes a #1 has shifted the last year. 

If we got by 1-30 in FWar for a #1 and 31-60 for a #2 so on and so forth, we get bottom of the barrel pitchers before we get to what a "#4 starter" should be. 

Think of it this way, only 52 pitchers even qualified last year.  Only 38 of those guys had a WAR above 2.0

I think what us fans consider a #1 pitcher isn't something there are 30 of, but rather maybe 10 any given season. 

I hope we do better than Kelly, and I may be in a minority here, but I think he might have a better 2026than Gray. Both seem like 3's to me, but closer to a 2 than a 4. Bello, the same.

It would not be a horrible thing to have...

1 top 5 pitcher (Crochet)

3 solid #3's (Kelly, Gray & Bello)

3 decent #4-5's (Sandoval, Crawford, Harrison)

3 promising youngsters (Dobbins, Tolle, Early)

1 unknown(Perales)

1 AAAA guy (Criswell)

That's 12 guys on the 40.

I had hoped for a 1B type, but if we do well adding to the O, I'd be okay with Kelly & Gray replacing Gio & Buehler.

Posted
55 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

For me, the only real worry about Gray is his age, and he's the type of pitcher who ages well because he doesn't rely on velocity.  He could easily put up 4-5 WAR this year
 

I yearn for more, but people have been underestimating this move. 

Kelly's age is the issue, too.

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