Predicting LT payroll

[drewski6]

2 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Pablo Reyes and Yu Chang aren't either. 

they got yu chang off a dfa.  you cna always find good defensive noodlebats.

[mvp 78]

10 minutes ago, notin said:

There are a lot of teams Duran represents an immediate and smart upgrade.

Diamondbacks, Mets, Phillies, Dodgers, Royals, Guardians, Astros, Blue Jays, Yankees, Tigers, Mariners, Braves, Padres, and probably a couple others.  And he’s out of so few budgets…

Duran would do so well in the Bronx. 😬

[Hugh2]

24 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

The reason why you would trade Mayer for Marte is so you would have one hitter in the top 50.  One very good one for 2026. Because right now, we have 0.

Im reading the arguments why not, and Im very hesitant to move Mayer myself for a lot of reasons mentioned. It does open a hole, I get that.  

But lets not act like there is 0 point to getting a dude who would be easily the best hitter on our team next year.  Ortiz and Manny are not walking through that door.

Easily?

I have a lot of faith that Roman Anthony is going to be an absolute monster sooner rather than later.  He was the #1 prospect in all of baseball for good reason. 

[JoeBrady]

36 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Not saying we should go for Polanco, but lets say it was an elite player , who you can get. 

That's fair, but the same with almost any deal.  The more years you are trading away, the larger upfront premium you have to expect.  I don't think Polanco will out-perform Mayer over two years, let alone over 6 years.  With Marte, you might get an added 5-6 WAR over the next two years.  That's a pretty good down-payment, even if you lose later in the deal.

[mvp 78]

13 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

Easily?

I have a lot of faith that Roman Anthony is going to be an absolute monster sooner rather than later.  He was the #1 prospect in all of baseball for good reason. 

Ketel Marte regression could also push him behind a few current players. He did only hit 102 wRC+ in '22. 

He's also a switch hitter who would have lost about 50 HR's if he played every game at Fenway per Statcast. 

[mvp 78]

14 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

That's fair, but the same with almost any deal.  The more years you are trading away, the larger upfront premium you have to expect.  I don't think Polanco will out-perform Mayer over two years, let alone over 6 years.  With Marte, you might get an added 5-6 WAR over the next two years.  That's a pretty good down-payment, even if you lose later in the deal.

So you get the 6 WAR up front with Marte at a premium cost. With Mayer, you may get more WAR and a controlled cost over a similar term. 

If the Sox were all in on winning a WS in '26 or '27, I'd be all for the trade. It just seems like they are one foot in and one foot out. If so, it doesn't make sense to go for the short term guy at the expense of the long term one. 

[JoeBrady]

53 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

Mets could really use Duran more than the Diamonbacks and they have some pieces that might entice AZ.  Maybe a three way trade with Boston/NY/ARZ is in the works. 

I'd love to build something around Duran-Tong.  I've mentioned this before, but Tong/Vientos gives a high-ceiling SP and a guy that can platoon with Casas, Mayer and Yoshida, and is likely a starter at some point.

[JoeBrady]

13 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

If the Sox were all in on winning a WS in '26 or '27, I'd be all for the trade.

My guess is that, if we trade Mayer for Marte, for example, then we're going all-in.  You wouldn't make that trade otherwise.

[drewski6]

1 hour ago, Hugh2 said:

Easily?

I have a lot of faith that Roman Anthony is going to be an absolute monster sooner rather than later.  He was the #1 prospect in all of baseball for good reason. 

22 yr old sophmore, i find it just as likely he steps back next year than forward.  Not guaranteed he'll step back, nor the end of the world if he does (sophmores slump all the time than adjust).  But 22 yr olds do not dominate the league.

Nick Kurtz was prob the best 22 yr old this year,  Camineiro was prob second. They both had very good years, teams didnt make playoffs.

JROD in 2022, where did the mariners go?

Who was the last championship team whose best player was 22?

[drewski6]

45 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

So you get the 6 WAR up front with Marte at a premium cost. With Mayer, you may get more WAR and a controlled cost over a similar term. 

If the Sox were all in on winning a WS in '26 or '27, I'd be all for the trade. It just seems like they are one foot in and one foot out. If so, it doesn't make sense to go for the short term guy at the expense of the long term one. 

Yeah, if the goal is to finish to near .500 every year (and it seems like it is) so I agree with you, but I reallllly dont want to reward the half-in/half-out

I say this a lot but if you are strategizing for BOTH the short term and the long term, you are strategizing for neither.

I want and Ive always wanted.  Win now vs win later.  Circle one.  Which one? I dont care.  I only ask 2 things.

1. That the red sox decision makers circle one. No buying and selling. 
2. If you choose later, when later comes, you (at that point) choose now.  So if you wanna say roman is going to be 22, in 4 years he'll be 26 and crochet will still be awesome and mayer will be great. Okay.  But in 4 years, prioritize short term.

If you are always prioritizing three years down the road, three years down the road never comes.

[drewski6]

im gonna keep hammering my catch phrases, sorry

[Hugh2]

5 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Yeah, if the goal is to finish to near .500 every year (and it seems like it is) so I agree with you, but I reallllly dont want to reward the half-in/half-out

I say this a lot but if you are strategizing for BOTH the short term and the long term, you are strategizing for neither.

I want and Ive always wanted.  Win now vs win later.  Circle one.  Which one? I dont care.  I only ask 2 things.

1. That the red sox decision makers circle one. No buying and selling. 
2. If you choose later, when later comes, you (at that point) choose now.  So if you wanna say roman is going to be 22, in 4 years he'll be 26 and crochet will still be awesome and mayer will be great. Okay.  But in 4 years, prioritize short term.

If you are always prioritizing three years down the road, three years down the road never comes.

Wouldn't win now be more in line with, well lets' keep Mayer for 3B and trade for Marte (with other pieces) to play 2nd.  Or play Mayer at 2nd and sign Bregman to play 3rd?

What I find fascinating about this whole thread is how somewhere Mayer has to be traded for the Sox to be competitive and there's no one else we could possibly trade for. 

[mvp 78]

51 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

My guess is that, if we trade Mayer for Marte, for example, then we're going all-in.  You wouldn't make that trade otherwise.

TBH, it's hard for me to figure out what they are doing lately. In? Out? Spend? Dump contracts? Nobody on HERE really knows for sure. 

[drewski6]

12 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

Wouldn't win now be more in line with, well lets' keep Mayer for 3B and trade for Marte (with other pieces) to play 2nd.  Or play Mayer at 2nd and sign Bregman to play 3rd?

What I find fascinating about this whole thread is how somewhere Mayer has to be traded for the Sox to be competitive and there's no one else we could possibly trade for. 

my offer is cedanne and bello

[drewski6]

13 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

Wouldn't win now be more in line with, well lets' keep Mayer for 3B and trade for Marte (with other pieces) to play 2nd.  Or play Mayer at 2nd and sign Bregman to play 3rd?

What I find fascinating about this whole thread is how somewhere Mayer has to be traded for the Sox to be competitive and there's no one else we could possibly trade for. 

but yes, mayer and marte is better than just marte.  obvs gotta give em something though.  Hey look, maybe theyll take one of moons 7 for 1 deals.  Go to sox prospects.com and give them every single prospect between 22 ranked and 28 ranked, and im not sure who these players are right now (dont have it open)

but i assume they are longshots and im fine with it

[drewski6]

2 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

TBH, it's hard for me to figure out what they are doing lately. In? Out? Spend? Dump contracts? Nobody on HERE really knows for sure. 

Best post ive seen since 5GG's "hopefully somebody f'ing pliant" about the vacant gm job

[drewski6]

4 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

my offer is cedanne and bello

I cna live with duran and bello

cuz he dropped that ball

[drewski6]

i dont hate notins plan.  duran and bello for marte. sign geno.

[mvp 78]

15 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

Wouldn't win now be more in line with, well lets' keep Mayer for 3B and trade for Marte (with other pieces) to play 2nd.  Or play Mayer at 2nd and sign Bregman to play 3rd?

What I find fascinating about this whole thread is how somewhere Mayer has to be traded for the Sox to be competitive and there's no one else we could possibly trade for. 

Are they really going to trade for Seager? 

Sign Ozuna on a cheap deal to DH (higher wRC+ since '23 than Schwarber)?

Contreras trade rumors? 

Deal a prospect plus Masa to shed salary for the above?

[drewski6]

11 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Are they really going to trade for Seager? 

Sign Ozuna on a cheap deal to DH (higher wRC+ since '23 than Schwarber)?

Contreras trade rumors? 

Deal a prospect plus Masa to shed salary for the above?

in one of my video game franchizes, ozuna won back to back MVPs (2026,2027) at DH for the Reds. I then traded him cuz i wanted brent rooker as my dh in 2028 and he won the dh silver slugger in the al in 2028 (not mvp)

and by mvp i mean the award, not you.  ozuna didnt win you cuz you are a person not a trophy (i assume)

[UtahSox]

11 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

i dont hate notins plan.  duran and bello for marte. sign geno.

I’d take it….
 

Although my absolute would be

1- resign AB2

2- trade Mayer/Bello/Harrison for Marte

3- trade Casas/Sandoval for Contreras

4- Early/Tolle + Duran/Abreu for SP2. 

[mvp 78]

20 minutes ago, UtahSox said:

I’d take it….
 

Although my absolute would be

1- resign AB2

2- trade Mayer/Bello/Harrison for Marte

3- trade Casas/Sandoval for Contreras

4- Early/Tolle + Duran/Abreu for SP2. 

I don't think Casas/Sandoval gets it done for Contreras. If it does, he should already be here. 

Who is the SP2? Seems like there isn't a willing trade partner.

[drewski6]

37 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I don't think Casas/Sandoval gets it done for Contreras. If it does, he should already be here. 

Who is the SP2? Seems like there isn't a willing trade partner.

More likely (my opinion) is that casas/sandoval is an overpay for contreras and they are haggling over how much money bloom as to eat, and bloom is like i just ate 20m on gray and rs are like irrelevant!  

casas/sandoval for contreras, i prob do it with 0 money eaten from their side, but not right now. Im still hopeful for better.

Assuming we're talking about the older brother.

Younger brother, thats not nearly enough.

[Kimmi]

6 hours ago, Hugh2 said:

I'll still stick to my guns, that if you take 100 Marcel Mayers and compare their age 23-27 seasons to 100 Ketel Martes age 33-37 seasons, the 100 Mayers are going to win every single time. 

Does that not mean some of those 100 Mayers will be out of the sport in a year or two and a complete bust? does it also not mean that Some Martes will continue producing at an elite level and staring down an invite into the hall of fame down the road? yes both are true, but the data clearly shows us how things turn up in the aggregate. 

There's nothing wrong with wanting to trade Mayer for Marte, but don't expect 1/2 of the people out there to agree with you that it's a good strategy to do so.  Personally I see that as a "win now" move where I would personally like to see the Sox trying to win for the next decade and not just the next 2-3 years.  

There's a ton of data out there about the war guys in their mid 20's put up vs. guys in their mid 30's and the reality is Mayer is at an age where value skyrockets and Marte is at an age where it plummets. Again I'm not going to compare 1-1 because I don't have a crystal ball and neither do any of you but I'll take 100 23 year olds careers over 100 33 year olds (from 33 on) every single time.  And I'll be right

I 100% endorse this post.  Well said.

[drewski6]

and i want both contreras, because im nothing if not sappy and i would love the brothers high fiving and all that other corny stuff that i gobble up (not particularly proud of that, not really ashamed of my sappiness either)

but i doubt the one on the brewers (the one who would catch) is available.

[Kimmi]

6 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

I'm now extremely skeptical that Casas can stay healthy.  And frankly his profile as a player is starting to look a bit suspect too.  He's big and slow and not a good fielder.  And he has had some very nasty slumps on O.       

You may be right, Bell.  I guess I have a little less skepticism in him because I'm willing to enter the season with him as our starting 1B.  I think he can produce 2023 numbers.  Perhaps that's not good enough.  We'll have to see what other moves Breslow has up his sleeve.

[mvp 78]

18 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

More likely (my opinion) is that casas/sandoval is an overpay for contreras and they are haggling over how much money bloom as to eat, and bloom is like i just ate 20m on gray and rs are like irrelevant!  

casas/sandoval for contreras, i prob do it with 0 money eaten from their side, but not right now. Im still hopeful for better.

Assuming we're talking about the older brother.

Younger brother, thats not nearly enough.

I thought you liked top 50 hitters? 

[mvp 78]

12 minutes ago, Kimmi said:

You may be right, Bell.  I guess I have a little less skepticism in him because I'm willing to enter the season with him as our starting 1B.  I think he can produce 2023 numbers.  Perhaps that's not good enough.  We'll have to see what other moves Breslow has up his sleeve.

If I thought he could be '23 Casas going forward, I wouldn't be penciling in anyone else. 

[drewski6]

13 minutes ago, Kimmi said:

You may be right, Bell.  I guess I have a little less skepticism in him because I'm willing to enter the season with him as our starting 1B.  I think he can produce 2023 numbers.  Perhaps that's not good enough.  We'll have to see what other moves Breslow has up his sleeve.

“He’s been in Fort Myers the whole time after the season,” Cora said. “That’s great for a young guy to know what he needs to do to compete. He’s done that. Hopefully we can get him heathy.”

 

 

As for a timetable, Cora didn’t give one.

 

 

“There’s no timetable right now,” he said. “We just gotta get him right, and hopefully he can contribute next year.”

[drewski6]

2 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I thought you liked top 50 hitters? 

Yeah, not quite following what you mean - are you saying contreras is a top 50 hitter and so i should be more willing to make the trade that i called an overpay?

If thats what you meant, sure - but i think that boston may be trying to get money eaten cuz we cant afford players at market value prices, we need subsidies.