A Realistic Look at the 2026 Red Sox: Part I

[notin]

8 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

When he started a game in the second inning, he did not need an inning to get up to speed.

Are you sure? Perhaps he was just sharp enough for the 7-8-9 hitters he was facing.

Also look at the teams that beat him up in the first inning.  Baltimore, Toronto and… Baltimore again.  Is it ever a mystery when the same team beats up the same pitcher twice?  

 

[notin]

2 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

It's between the ears.  BB players are creatures of habit and superstition.  Changes to their routine spooks them.  Not all of them, but not a small amount.  Just for fun, take a look at the discrepancy of closers in non-closing situations.

This myth has been debunked.

But while I agree, MLB players are among the most superstitious grown ups on Earth, it doesn’t fit Bello, who is struggling in his famine outings and doing well out of his comfort zone…

[moonslav59]

14 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

It's between the ears.  BB players are creatures of habit and superstition.  Changes to their routine spooks them.  Not all of them, but not a small amount.  Just for fun, take a look at the discrepancy of closers in non-closing situations.

The thing is, using an opener was against his habit & routine, and it worked.

[moonslav59]

14 minutes ago, notin said:

Are you sure? Perhaps he was just sharp enough for the 7-8-9 hitters he was facing.

Also look at the teams that beat him up in the first inning.  Baltimore, Toronto and… Baltimore again.  Is it ever a mystery when the same team beats up the same pitcher twice?  

 

7-8-9? In the second inning?

1st game after an opener, he faced 9-1-2 (got all out), and the next inning 3-4-5-6 and let up one ground ball single.

Game 2 after an opener: he faced the 5-6-7-8-9-1 batters and did struggle but did get the #1 batter out to end the inning with just 1 run allowed.

Game 3 (after getting a GS in between) Here he did face the 7-8-9 and a CS helped him not face the #1  batter, He did struggle the next inning with the 1>6 batters, but allowed no runs.

Game 4: Samaniego faced 9 batters in the first, so Bello started the second inning vs the 1-2-3 batters. He let up 1 single, got a K and two groundouts. This allows me to say, "Yes, I'm sure."

Yes, as a SP'er his 1.357 OPS Against in the first inning could be related to facing the 1-2-3-4 batters, but he obviously did better vs those 1-2-3-4 batters over the full game than the first inning, so that kind of deflates the "against good batters" argument.

.708 v 1 slot

1.037 v 2 slot (better than 1.357)

1.071 v 3 slot (better as well)

.715 v 4 slot

The fact is, he started off way more slowly when starting the first inning rather than the second inning, and it was not related to facing the 7-8-9 batters in the second, as the batting slots seemed about equal between the two sample sizes.

[notin]

30 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

7-8-9? In the second inning?

1st game after an opener, he faced 9-1-2 (got all out), and the next inning 3-4-5-6 and let up one ground ball single.

Game 2 after an opener: he faced the 5-6-7-8-9-1 batters and did struggle but did get the #1 batter out to end the inning with just 1 run allowed.

Game 3 (after getting a GS in between) Here he did face the 7-8-9 and a CS helped him not face the #1  batter, He did struggle the next inning with the 1>6 batters, but allowed no runs.

Game 4: Samaniego faced 9 batters in the first, so Bello started the second inning vs the 1-2-3 batters. He let up 1 single, got a K and two groundouts. This allows me to say, "Yes, I'm sure."

Yes, as a SP'er his 1.357 OPS Against in the first inning could be related to facing the 1-2-3-4 batters, but he obviously did better vs those 1-2-3-4 batters over the full game than the first inning, so that kind of deflates the "against good batters" argument.

.708 v 1 slot

1.037 v 2 slot (better than 1.357)

1.071 v 3 slot (better as well)

.715 v 4 slot

The fact is, he started off way more slowly when starting the first inning rather than the second inning, and it was not related to facing the 7-8-9 batters in the second, as the batting slots seemed about equal between the two sample sizes.

So he faced 9,5,7, and 1 hitters.  It w wasn’t just “against god hitters”; it was “getting going against good hitters.”  And clearly it wasn’t equal since that first inning is always the 1-2-3 hitters.  Also the teams that lit him up in the first inning were mostly ALEast teams very familiar with him.

I think he can come back.  This team needs an arm and overworking their bullpen stands to be more detrimental than a handful of Bello starts even if they all do go south..

[moonslav59]

2 minutes ago, notin said:

So he faced 9,5,7, and 1 hitters.  It w wasn’t just “against god hitters”; it was “getting going against good hitters.”  And clearly it wasn’t equal since that first inning is always the 1-2-3 hitters.  Also the teams that lit him up in the first inning were mostly ALEast teams very familiar with him.

I think he can come back.  This team needs an arm and overworking their bullpen stands to be more detrimental than a handful of Bello starts even if they all do go south..

Of course he faced 1-2-3-4 more as a SP'er, but he did not face 7-8-9 batters as much as you implied as the second inning pitcher.

Yes, it helped, but it looks like that was not the main issue.

[vegasbob]

2 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

That hints at mental/emotional issues.

He looked nasty after an opener.

Bello suffers from a reinforcing cycle of  thinking he has problems in the first inning so he tries to be too careful which in turn leads to walks, HBP or grooving balls on 3-1 counts.   The more it happens, the more it reinforces that negative thinking .   

Personally, I suspect he is an undereducated clown , and have never liked him as a serious pitcher. But he has shown he can do it on multiple occasions .

You may also be seeing the effect of making a young, immature kid a multi-millionaire in a poor country like the DR.   Papi and Pedro could talk to him all day and never gotten through to Brayan about needing to work hard , even in off season.    You know Alex Cora discussed it with those guys. Why work too hard in the hot sun?

[moonslav59]

Just now, vegasbob said:

Bello suffers from a reinforcing cycle of  thinking he has problems in the first inning so he tries to be too careful which in turn leads to walks, HBP or grooving balls on 3-1 counts.   The more it happens, the more it reinforces that negative thinking .   

Personally, I suspect he is an undereducated clown , and have never liked him as a serious pitcher. But he has shown he can do it on multiple occasions .

You may also be seeing the effect of making a young, immature kid a multi-millionaire in a poor country like the DR.   Papi and Pedro could talk to him all day and never gotten through to Brayan about needing to work hard , even in off season.    You know Alex Cora discussed it with those guys. Why work too hard in the hot sun?

You may be right, and it wouldn't be the first time a pitcher with nasty stuff had issues and was bounced from MLB.

He does have nasty stuff though, but so did DHern.

[moonslav59]

3 hours ago, vegasbob said:

Bello suffers from a reinforcing cycle of  thinking he has problems in the first inning so he tries to be too careful which in turn leads to walks, HBP or grooving balls on 3-1 counts.   The more it happens, the more it reinforces that negative thinking .   

Personally, I suspect he is an undereducated clown , and have never liked him as a serious pitcher. But he has shown he can do it on multiple occasions .

You may also be seeing the effect of making a young, immature kid a multi-millionaire in a poor country like the DR.   Papi and Pedro could talk to him all day and never gotten through to Brayan about needing to work hard , even in off season.    You know Alex Cora discussed it with those guys. Why work too hard in the hot sun?

We may need Bello, as there is no other choices.

[moonslav59]

I've shown how many pitchers Brez has added in the last few months and since he got here, but here is another way to look at it: here are the carry-over players from pre-Brez:

Active 26 man roster:

P: Whitlock

Non P: Rafaela, Abreu, Duran, Yoshida, Wong

40 Man: Bello, Kelly, KC, Uberstine

IL: Early, Anthony, Mayer, Story, Houck, Crawford, Casas, Sogard

Top 40 Prospects:

1 Arias, 9 Valera, 14 Cespedes, 16 Romero, 17 Wehunt, 20 Paez, 21 Mullins, 26 Monegro, 31 Castro, 34 Jo Garcia, 36 Brannon, 37 Belis

[vegasbob]

Sox have not been just 3 under since AC was still an employee in good standing. Did not last too long before sliding deep under water

[moonslav59]

10 minutes ago, vegasbob said:

Sox have not been just 3 under since AC was still an employee in good standing. Did not last too long before sliding deep under water

Been over .500 under Tracy.

Gotta keep winning as many series as possible.

[jgar658]

51 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I've shown how many pitchers Brez has added in the last few months and since he got here, but here is another way to look at it: here are the carry-over players from pre-Brez:

Active 26 man roster:

P: Whitlock

Non P: Rafaela, Abreu, Duran, Yoshida, Wong

40 Man: Bello, Kelly, KC, Uberstine

IL: Early, Anthony, Mayer, Story, Houck, Crawford, Casas, Sogard

Top 40 Prospects:

1 Arias, 9 Valera, 14 Cespedes, 16 Romero, 17 Wehunt, 20 Paez, 21 Mullins, 26 Monegro, 31 Castro, 34 Jo Garcia, 36 Brannon, 37 Belis

Question:

 

What are we goin g to do with the starting pitchers?  I see no holes

• Sonny Gray (RHP): A key veteran starter and consistent presence in the rotation.
• Payton Tolle (LHP): Young left-hander getting regular starts.
• Jake Bennett (LHP): Another lefty contributing in the rotation.

Key Notes on Injuries and Depth

Several top arms are currently sidelined:

• Ranger Suarez (LHP) — On the 15-day IL.
• Garrett Crochet (LHP) — On the 60-day IL.
• Connelly Early (LHP) — On the 15-day IL.

Other pitchers who have started games or are in the mix/depth options include:

• Patrick Sandoval (LHP) 
• Eduardo Rivera (LHP)

I say we can go all the way with this staff.

[vegasbob]

14 minutes ago, jgar658 said:

Question:

 

What are we goin g to do with the starting pitchers?  I see no holes

• Sonny Gray (RHP): A key veteran starter and consistent presence in the rotation.
• Payton Tolle (LHP): Young left-hander getting regular starts.
• Jake Bennett (LHP): Another lefty contributing in the rotation.

Key Notes on Injuries and Depth

Several top arms are currently sidelined:

• Ranger Suarez (LHP) — On the 15-day IL.
• Garrett Crochet (LHP) — On the 60-day IL.
• Connelly Early (LHP) — On the 15-day IL.

Other pitchers who have started games or are in the mix/depth options include:

• Patrick Sandoval (LHP) 
• Eduardo Rivera (LHP)

I say we can go all the way with this staff.

It will take a lot of roster juggling , injury recoveries, young guys (Tolle, Early, Bennett) surviving career IP without succumbing to Crochet's condition, and finally the outcome of trades.

[Bellhorn04]

The Sox have given up 12 runs during this 8 game winning streak.

[Duran Is The Man]

.

[moonslav59]

3 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

The Sox have given up 12 runs during this 8 game winning streak.

But only offense guarantees a winning team, we were told.

[moonslav59]

Since June 10th, Durbin is tied for 8th in HRs... not on  the team, but in MLB! (4th in the AL)

Since June 10th (100+ PAs) OPS Leaders

15. Contreras .958 (4th in AL)

17. Durbin .952 (5th in AL)

[moonslav59]

Standings

56-37 TBR

49-45 CWS

48-47 TEX

______WC________

53-42 NYY

50-46 CLE

47-49 SEA & MIN

47-50 HOU -0.5

45-48 BOS -0.5

45-49 TOR -1.0

45-51 BAL -2.0

44-51 DET -2.5

The A's seem to be dropping out. KCR & LAA look like toast. In the NL, Cincy is 8 GB and is likely out. The SFG, NYM and COL are probably toast. That might be 7 teams (less than 25% are out of it.)

[moonslav59]

Gotta keep this going. One more game before the ASB.

5 Days off

We start off with a doubleheader vs the Rays and 7 games in 6 days. (We'll need a 6th starter or pen game.) Our first 10 games are at home vs division foes (4 TBR, 3 BAL & 3 TOR)

A 7 game west coast trip follows (4 v A's then 3 vs LAD) tat brings us to the trade deadline AU 3rd.

[Larry Cook]

I am hearing Atlanta needs a shortstop and a starting pitcher. 
 

we have Mayer and gray!  Maybe bres-slow can put together a block buster 

[JoeBrady]

9 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

But only offense guarantees a winning team, we were told.

Run differential wins,  We were +15 in the last 6 games of June and +25 July MTD.

[notin]

13 hours ago, jgar658 said:

Question:

 

What are we goin g to do with the starting pitchers?  I see no holes

• Sonny Gray (RHP): A key veteran starter and consistent presence in the rotation.
• Payton Tolle (LHP): Young left-hander getting regular starts.
• Jake Bennett (LHP): Another lefty contributing in the rotation.

Key Notes on Injuries and Depth

Several top arms are currently sidelined:

• Ranger Suarez (LHP) — On the 15-day IL.
• Garrett Crochet (LHP) — On the 60-day IL.
• Connelly Early (LHP) — On the 15-day IL.

Other pitchers who have started games or are in the mix/depth options include:

• Patrick Sandoval (LHP) 
• Eduardo Rivera (LHP)

I say we can go all the way with this staff.

I do think at some point innings limits for Tolle and especially Bennett do become a factor.  Bringing Bello back and having Sandoval might mitigate these concerns…

[notin]

20 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Of course he faced 1-2-3-4 more as a SP'er, but he did not face 7-8-9 batters as much as you implied as the second inning pitcher.

Yes, it helped, but it looks like that was not the main issue.

You took it too literally.  I actually said “7-8-9” or 8-9-1 hitters.”  The bottom line is the opener strategy coupled with inefficient openers often got him out of tougher parts of the lineup.

Couple that with the fact that his first inning troubles were often limited to AL East opponents, and it gets easier to notice his problems were not mental nor mechanical but rather situational…

[Bellhorn04]

26 minutes ago, notin said:

You took it too literally.  I actually said “7-8-9” or 8-9-1 hitters.”  The bottom line is the opener strategy coupled with inefficient openers often got him out of tougher parts of the lineup.

Couple that with the fact that his first inning troubles were often limited to AL East opponents, and it gets easier to notice his problems were not mental nor mechanical but rather situational…

I find your theory mildly perplexing, in that Bello faced at least 24 batters in each of his "relief" outings, so he would have faced the best hitters at least twice each.    

[notin]

6 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

I find your theory mildly perplexing, in that Bello faced at least 24 batters in each of his "relief" outings, so he would have faced the best hitters at least twice each.    

Yes but apparently he is more easily hit early in his appearances.  So he does better when he starts off with lesser hitters. Especially ones less familiar with him.

I find it odd this is questionable, but you throw out the phrase “mental issues” and it’s universally accepted.  If someone can explain their mental theories, I’m all for it.  But at some point, Bello has his own first inning, and there is no avoiding that.

I also think it’s not a coincidence that the teams that lit him up in the first are Baltimore, Toronto and Baltimore again…

[UtahSox]

1 hour ago, Larry Cook said:

I am hearing Atlanta needs a shortstop and a starting pitcher. 
 

we have Mayer and gray!  Maybe bres-slow can put together a block buster 

I’m all for trading Mayer…. But we are 1/2 game out at the ASB I mean I’d like to be 5-6 wins over 500, but I still had us as a WC team @ start of season. So why would we trade 11-1 with an ERA of 2.5? When we get in the WC do you know how much scarier we are? Game 1- Suarez (look up his postseason history) game 2- Sonny Gray game 3 Garrett Crochet with Bennett, Tolle, Sandoval in the mix to eat innings. 
unless the haul is insane I don’t think you move Sonny Gray. 

Guys I’d move for but only for players that can help 2027-2028: Narvaez, Mayer, Duran, Eyanson, Witherspoon, Valera, Phillips (any of our pitching prospects) a couple of our younger hitting prospects. 

[dannycater]

I'm not sure what they are drinking or eating, but don't change a thing...Is this the Romy effect? When Yoshida is hitting home runs you know something is going right. Anyway, great for Tracy and the Sox players. I'm the first to rip management and rightfully so, but they are pulling themselves out of a major hole and I didn't expect anything like this a month ago. From no hope, to hope.

[Bellhorn04]

23 minutes ago, notin said:

Yes but apparently he is more easily hit early in his appearances.  So he does better when he starts off with lesser hitters. Especially ones less familiar with him.

I find it odd this is questionable, but you throw out the phrase “mental issues” and it’s universally accepted.  If someone can explain their mental theories, I’m all for it.  But at some point, Bello has his own first inning, and there is no avoiding that.

I also think it’s not a coincidence that the teams that lit him up in the first are Baltimore, Toronto and Baltimore again…

OK, well, your first paragraph is the kind of elaboration I was looking for.

I don't think anyone knows exactly what the issue is.  Or why it seemed to only pop up this year and not in previous years.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, UtahSox said:

I’m all for trading Mayer…. But we are 1/2 game out at the ASB I mean I’d like to be 5-6 wins over 500, but I still had us as a WC team @ start of season. So why would we trade 11-1 with an ERA of 2.5? When we get in the WC do you know how much scarier we are? Game 1- Suarez (look up his postseason history) game 2- Sonny Gray game 3 Garrett Crochet with Bennett, Tolle, Sandoval in the mix to eat innings. 
unless the haul is insane I don’t think you move Sonny Gray. 

Guys I’d move for but only for players that can help 2027-2028: Narvaez, Mayer, Duran, Eyanson, Witherspoon, Valera, Phillips (any of our pitching prospects) a couple of our younger hitting prospects. 

I'd keep Eyanson. We lose Gray and Crochet is a Q mark, We just started Rivera after having rotational depth 10-11 deep. (He was #12-13?) Eyanson might be ready mid '27 and into '28.

Mayer and Witherspoon (add Phillips not Valera, if we can help it) can get us something useful, but it cannot be a rental.