A Realistic Look at the 2026 Red Sox: Part I

[drewski6]

12 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I still think maybe a Hicks type of deal, where we add on a decent prospect might get a richer team to take on some of Masa's contract. I doubt anyone pays near half.

Another way might be to trade him for an equal sunken contract, but a guy who plays some where other than DH.

This isnt the problem Im trying to solve.

[drewski6]

Forget it, I dont care to rehvae the same conversations a fifteenth time.  I see no reason for him to take a minor league deal. Doesnt mean he wouldnt.  But if Im him, im like no, release me.  Then I can sign even a 1 yr deal even at 2m. Or he cant my question is can he?

And no way would we be on the hook for any amount of this new deal.....Obvs we are on the hook for the 18m minus the min portion.

Im not trying to flip Masa for a positional player or include a prospect for salary relief. Im trying to park him in AAA so we Eaton can make the roster.

[drewski6]

And Im trying to figure out if/why Masa would accept a AAA assignment.  So my question is if he is outright released. Now hes a FA, can he sign a 1 yr/3m deal.

Im not asking if we can trade him in a hicks like deal. I have no interest in that.  But if the answer is no, he cant sign anything more than a min contract if he is outright waived, then he is more likely to take a minor league assignment because a 1yr/3m deal is off the table.

[notin]

3 hours ago, UtahSox said:

That’s where Masa pigeon holds himself more than anybody else, he’s only a DH so you can replace him with Durbin (similar bat to ball metrics), Casas, Monasterio, Romy (if he comes back) Campbell, or JD. 

Except that most of those guys are much worse hitters…

[drewski6]

1 minute ago, notin said:

Except that most of those guys are much worse hitters…

Ill give you casas and monasterio is a tbd.  But no way on Romy, Campbell , JD.  Dubin is close

[notin]

2 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

"Someone else will probably already be injured." Now that's some good team building. 

It’s got nothing to do with team building.  Do players get hurt because of poor roster construction?  Would fewer get hurt if they wore their hard hats?

Know what’s bad team building?  Dealing away your depth for no reason then realizing you need it…

[drewski6]

Durbin , Casas, Monasterio, Romy, Campbell, , Masa, JD. 

Ranked in order of best hitter from best to worst

1. Duran

(HUGE DROP OFF)
2. Romy 
3. Campbell (impressing me this spring)
4. Durbin
5. Masa
6. Casas

7. Monasterio (TBD for me)

[drewski6]

8 minutes ago, notin said:

It’s got nothing to do with team building.  Do players get hurt because of poor roster construction?  Would fewer get hurt if they wore their hard hats?

Know what’s bad team building?  Dealing away your depth for no reason then realizing you need it…

Im with you here.  I dont deal Masa to make the roster more neat.  If I can park him in AAA, I dont jettison him at all.  If I cant park him in AAA, we may need the spot on the 26man but not at this time and I pospone the decision if I can.  So maybe I want Eaton on team, but i put him in minors just because I can (if he has options) because Im trying to hoard talent because depth is important.

People like Eaton, KC, Ward may eventually push Masa off
 

[drewski6]

I honestly see such a contrast between people being like we need 11 great starters, did you see how many starters we used last year!!!  What , this guy isnt one of our projected 9 starting position players? Ship him out.

Hitters get hurt too, not just pitchers.

[Old Red]

11 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Im with you here.  I dont deal Masa to make the roster more neat.  If I can park him in AAA, I dont jettison him at all.  If I cant park him in AAA, we may need the spot on the 26man but not at this time and I pospone the decision if I can.  So maybe I want Eaton on team, but i put him in minors just because I can (if he has options) because Im trying to hoard talent because depth is important.

People like Eaton, KC, Ward may eventually push Masa off
 

The RED Sox used the ruse that Masa had to get his arm in shape to play the OF, and shipped him off to parts unknown, and wouldn’t even let him bat at Woo, or anywhere else when he was healthy enough to DH from the Red Sox on opening day, but oops Raffy was there last year. It would be great if Masa would go to Woo to begin the season, but I don’t see that happening. Being a backup DH on the bench isn’t a good fit either.

[drewski6]

11 minutes ago, Old Red said:

The RED Sox used the ruse that Masa had to get his arm in shape to play the OF, and shipped him off to parts unknown, and wouldn’t even let him bat at Woo, or anywhere else when he was healthy enough to DH from the Red Sox on opening day, but oops Raffy was there last year. It would be great if Masa would go to Woo to begin the season, but I don’t see that happening. Being a backup DH on the bench isn’t a good fit either.

How sure are you that he wasnt actually hurt?

[Old Red]

17 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

How sure are you that he wasnt actually hurt?

All I know was he was good enough to DH in ST.

[notin]

2 hours ago, drewski6 said:

I’ll give you casas and monasterio is a tbd.  But no way on Romy, Campbell , JD.  Dubin is close

I think Campbell will be better, but is he?  
 

Romy has a career OPS + of 102; Yoshida has a 109.

Hopefully Durbin will be.  But so far he has but one season under his belt to assess him on…

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, drewski6 said:

But what if hes outright released and 2 teams want him and one goes up to 2m....Why are we assuming he'd only get minimum?

When he's DFA'd one team claims him based on their slot in picking order. It's not a bidding war.

[moonslav59]

3 hours ago, drewski6 said:

Durbin , Casas, Monasterio, Romy, Campbell, , Masa, JD. 

Ranked in order of best hitter from best to worst

1. Duran

(HUGE DROP OFF)
2. Romy 
3. Campbell (impressing me this spring)
4. Durbin
5. Masa
6. Casas

7. Monasterio (TBD for me)

#1

Duran v R

Romy v L

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, drewski6 said:

And Im trying to figure out if/why Masa would accept a AAA assignment.  So my question is if he is outright released. Now hes a FA, can he sign a 1 yr/3m deal.

Im not asking if we can trade him in a hicks like deal. I have no interest in that.  But if the answer is no, he cant sign anything more than a min contract if he is outright waived, then he is more likely to take a minor league assignment because a 1yr/3m deal is off the table.

He's making $18M this year and next.

If he get's DFA'd and picked up, and he likely would be, he'd be making $18M this year and next. The Sox pay about $17.2M a year and the new team $800K a year.

To me, it makes sense to see if someone will trade a bag of used balls for him + $14M a year. They pay $4M a year, and that comes off our tax line.

Then, JH can go out and spend like crazy at the deadline! LOL

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

fangraph's projected OPS

.808 Anthony

.789 Contreras

.777 Abreu

.774 Casas

.767 Duran

.760 Yoshida

.745 Romy

.731 Rafaela

.729 Durbin

.715 Story

.715 Campbell

.703 Mayer

.686 Narvaez

.684 Wong

.682 Monasterio

.632 IKF

[Duran Is The Man]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

.808 Anthony

.789 Contreras

.777 Abreu

.774 Casas

.767 Duran

.760 Yoshida

.745 Romy

.731 Rafaela

.729 Durbin

.715 Story

.715 Campbell

.703 Mayer

.686 Narvaez

.684 Wong

.682 Monasterio

.632 IKF

.774 Casas. LOLOLOL.

[moonslav59]

21 minutes ago, Duran Is The Man said:

.774 Casas. LOLOLOL.

I thought it was pretty low, too.

[Duran Is The Man]

25 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I thought it was pretty low, too.

his bWAR has been trending down pretty hard. and his OPS last year was .580.  ouch. i'm thinking more like .600.

[moonslav59]

19 minutes ago, Duran Is The Man said:

his bWAR has been trending down pretty hard. and his OPS last year was .580.  ouch. i'm thinking more like .600.

Tiny sample size, last year.

.766>.856>.800 before .2025 can be viewed as a down trend, but maybe not.

[JoeBrady]

40 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Tiny sample size, last year.

.766>.856>.800 before .2025 can be viewed as a down trend, but maybe not.

With the usual small sample disclaimer, at a level of 800 PAs from 2022-2024, Casas ranked #36 in wRC+, tied with Schwarber & Ketel Marte, and slightly higher than Bregman & Paredes.

[moonslav59]

41 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

With the usual small sample disclaimer, at a level of 800 PAs from 2022-2024, Casas ranked #36 in wRC+, tied with Schwarber & Ketel Marte, and slightly higher than Bregman & Paredes.

It was about double the PAs from the Dalbec and Middlebrook teases.

I know others hate seeing him take the third strike so much, but I love his approach. He's got a good eye, and he rarely takes a strike right down the middle.

I'm cautiously optimistic.

[mvp 78]

15 hours ago, notin said:

It’s got nothing to do with team building.  Do players get hurt because of poor roster construction?  Would fewer get hurt if they wore their hard hats?

Know what’s bad team building?  Dealing away your depth for no reason then realizing you need it…

Having 4 starting OFers and parking a DH on the bench with Casas rehabbing with no clear path to playing time if he's healthy is bad team building. 

[mvp 78]

15 hours ago, Old Red said:

All I know was he was good enough to DH in ST.

He was fine swinging a bat. They sent him to AAA because he couldn't play OF. Like what???

[mvp 78]

13 hours ago, notin said:

I think Campbell will be better, but is he?  
 

Romy has a career OPS + of 102; Yoshida has a 109.

Hopefully Durbin will be.  But so far he has but one season under his belt to assess him on…

Campbell should be better eventually, but he hasn't shown it yet. He needs to actually start hitting in AAA before anyone thinks he can be better than anyone that has shown success at the big league level over a full season like Casas. 

[mvp 78]

13 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

When he's DFA'd one team claims him based on their slot in picking order. It's not a bidding war.

It's a bidding war after he clears waivers. If he can't be DFA'd based on his contract and is straight released, then teams could in theory bid against each other. Unlikely! If teams would pay more than the minimum, he would have been dealt.

[notin]

43 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Having 4 starting OFers and parking a DH on the bench with Casas rehabbing with no clear path to playing time if he's healthy is bad team building. 

Right.  They should start cutting people.  

Get down to 3 outfielders.  That way, if one gets hurt we still have two!! But more important, it frees up bench spots for mediocre multi-position players every fan wants to see more of!!  Who didn’t get hit and bothered when Ed Jurak was in the lineup?  And don’t get me started on Luis Rivera…

 

[Old Red]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

He was fine swinging a bat. They sent him to AAA because he couldn't play OF. Like what???

But he didn’t even swing a bat at for quite awhile anywhere.

[Old Red]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

Having 4 starting OFers and parking a DH on the bench with Casas rehabbing with no clear path to playing time if he's healthy is bad team building. 

Agree 100%. Having a backup DH only taking up a bench spot isn’t what’s best for the team.