A Realistic Look at the 2026 Red Sox: Part I

[drewski6]

45 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Hardly ever, but our history has been we only win rings when we use 5-6 pitchers for a huge chunk of all games started, anyway.

I count 9:

5: Crochet, Suarez, Gray,  Bello & Oviedo

4: Crawford, Sandoval, Tolle & Early

Is Uberstine less thought of than Newcomb & Dobbins were last March?

(Also, I'm talking LF & DH depth is a luxury we should have traded for strengthening other higher need areas.)

 

When it comes to positonal player depth, like our fourth outfielder or next man up in infield, you are like nice to have but I flip it if we have a need.

But if it we had 6 good starters would that 6th one be thrown in as many trade offers as you do Duran?

Its fine to be a pitching guy.  Im jsut saying that positonal player and hitting depth is more than "nice" or a luxury. Its critical too.  

To win in MLB you need 8 good starters (expect to lose half, so youre guaranteed to have 4 good ones and thats prob enough).  Also, to win in MLB you need 12 good hitters (expect to lose half, so youre guaranteed to have 6 good ones and thats prob enough).

I dont see Masa as "in the way" for the same reason you dont see Sandoval as "in the way" , with above average injury look we prob wont need them and thats a good thing.  But I dont want to find myself saying I wish we had Masa in the playoffs after weve traded him. And that scenario happened last year when he hit clean up for us in the playoffs and was probably our third most productive hitter in last years playoffs behind Story and Bregman.

[Old Red]

8 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Correct, having versatility is good.  But not every "slash" player (someone who can play multiple positions) is good at every position they play.  That doesnt mean , however, that they should never play those positions. It does mean, however, that they probably shouldnt play that position full time, forever.

I dont hate seeing KC get some 2b in Woo.  Maybe it gets better his 2b d.  Maybe thats where an opportunity opens. Mayer and Story arent particularly durable.  But I dont think KC should get more games at 2b than in the OF, however.  And I dont think you are hurting him by moving him.  But I know you think that, and I dont think its like an unreasonable belief.  I dont dismiss it entirely and I can see the logic.  Let him focus on one position and hitting, why clog up his brain.  But Im not on board that keeping KC versatile defensively is doing more harm than good.  I think he continues to get better at 2b, OF, and hitting.  And I like that he can be depth to so many positions nad be kept in minor leagues.

Versatility is fine, and that’s what you have guys like Romy, Sogard, and the IKF types for. KC in my opinion just isn’t one of those guys IMO. KC is still nothing, but a suspect at this time, and a work in progress.

[drewski6]

Just now, drewski6 said:

When it comes to positonal player depth, like our fourth outfielder or next man up in infield, you are like nice to have but I flip it if we have a need.

But if it we had 6 good starters would that 6th one be thrown in as many trade offers as you do Duran?

Its fine to be a pitching guy.  Im jsut saying that positonal player and hitting depth is more than "nice" or a luxury. Its critical too.  

To win in MLB you need 8 good starters (expect to lose half, so youre guaranteed to have 4 good ones and thats prob enough).  Also, to win in MLB you need 12 good hitters (expect to lose half, so youre guaranteed to have 6 good ones and thats prob enough).

I dont see Masa as "in the way" for the same reason you dont see Sandoval as "in the way" , with above average injury look we prob wont need them and thats a good thing.  But I dont want to find myself saying I wish we had Masa in the playoffs after weve traded him. And that scenario happened last year when he hit clean up for us in the playoffs and was probably our third most productive hitter in last years playoffs behind Story and Bregman.

If you can count 12 hitters better than Masa, Im okay with cutting him today.

[Old Red]

2 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

When it comes to positonal player depth, like our fourth outfielder or next man up in infield, you are like nice to have but I flip it if we have a need.

But if it we had 6 good starters would that 6th one be thrown in as many trade offers as you do Duran?

Its fine to be a pitching guy.  Im jsut saying that positonal player and hitting depth is more than "nice" or a luxury. Its critical too.  

To win in MLB you need 8 good starters (expect to lose half, so youre guaranteed to have 4 good ones and thats prob enough).  Also, to win in MLB you need 12 good hitters (expect to lose half, so youre guaranteed to have 6 good ones and thats prob enough).

I dont see Masa as "in the way" for the same reason you dont see Sandoval as "in the way" , with above average injury look we prob wont need them and thats a good thing.  But I dont want to find myself saying I wish we had Masa in the playoffs after weve traded him. And that scenario happened last year when he hit clean up for us in the playoffs and was probably our third most productive hitter in last years playoffs behind Story and Bregman.

I think the perception is that the Red Sox have 4 full time outfielders at present time, and that hasn’t been proven yet especially with Abreu, and if he’s not another LHB like Masa doesn’t help that situation where another RHB would, and that is why Masa can be in the way.

[Old Red]

6 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

If you can count 12 hitters better than Masa, Im okay with cutting him today.

And yet he doesn’t have a position, or a spot to get AB.🤭

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, drewski6 said:

When it comes to positonal player depth, like our fourth outfielder or next man up in infield, you are like nice to have but I flip it if we have a need.

But if it we had 6 good starters would that 6th one be thrown in as many trade offers as you do Duran?

OF is a little different from 1B or C and some other positions, as there are 3 slots, and an injury to any one would put the 4th OF into a FT role. I get the need for a very good 4th OF'er, but between K Campbell, Masa and even Eaton  &Romy offer some decent depth.

The SP role is 5 and not 3 like the OF. The odds are greater one in 5 SP'ers gets hurt more than one in 3 OF'ers, and with the recent trend in SP'er injury, it's probably higher odds than 5:3. The 6th starter is very important, and I'd say more so than the 4th OF'er. Hell, the 7th starter might be close, especially if you have a decent 5th and 6th OF'er, as I think we do.

Some of my trade suggestions included trading from OF and SP'er depth, but it was to gain a major upgrade at a position of great need (2B or 3B PLUS a BIG BAT) like K Marte. I'd probably have traded Crawford or KC for Paredes, but HOU wants one of our LH'd OF'ers and maybe would not add enough to just a Paredes return.

I doubt any trade talks are still going on, but this will be the second year in a row we've started a season with a major OF surplus and a glaring weak spot or two left unattended or poorly attended.

That being said, I really like Durbin and think Mayer has some serious upside, but it's a bit too speculative for my liking.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, drewski6 said:

If you can count 12 hitters better than Masa, Im okay with cutting him today.

1. Anthony

2. Contreras

3. Duran

4. Abreu

5. Errr.... Durbin?

6. Double Errr... Narvaez?

7. Triple Errr... Story?

8. Platooned Romy

9. I can't go further, even with more Errrs.

[moonslav59]

I dont see Masa as "in the way" for the same reason you dont see Sandoval as "in the way" , with above average injury look we prob wont need them and thats a good thing.  But I dont want to find myself saying I wish we had Masa in the playoffs after weve traded him. And that scenario happened last year when he hit clean up for us in the playoffs and was probably our third most productive hitter in last years playoffs behind Story and Bregman.

I have mentioned that I project Masa to have a similar OPS in 2026 as Duran, although that does not make him equal on offense to him.

Having Masa was one reason I was okay trading Duran for someone like KMarte or Paredes plus King & Jarek.

I'd rather have Masa as depth than not have him, but I'd rather have had a better 2Bman or 3Bman by more. Had we traded Duran, Masa's value increases.

I'm okay with out roster. One major injury to an OF'er and I'll be eating crow.

I'd like more pitching depth and know its great importance, but FT slots have more importance, to me.

[moonslav59]

Speaking of SP'er depth, I agree it is very important, and for once we seem to have top quality SP'ers and depth. Quality AND Quantity!

It's interesting to note that our ring seasons were often led by just 5-6 key SP'ers, where very little injuries occurred and the need for depth, especially extended depth was simply not present.

2004: Amazingly, we only needed 5 GS outside our starting 5: 33 Pedro & Lowe, 32 Schilling, 30 Wake & 29 Arroyo.

2007: There were only 11 GS outside the top 6 SP'ers. 32 Dice-K, 31 Wake, 30 Beckett, 24 Schilling, 23 Tavarez, 11 Lester.

2013: A little more depth was needed, and even a trade for Peavy: 33 Lester, 29 Lackey, 29 Dempster, 27 Doubront, 16 Buchholz, 10 Peavy and 17 GS by 5 others. Those 17 GS were all pitchers who added zero value as starters.

2018: Kinda breaks the mold, as the depth helped, and the trade for Nate might have won us that 4th ring: 33 Porcello, 30 Price, 27 Sale, 23 ERod, 13 Johnson (4.17) 11 (3.33) 11 Pomeranz (sucked) 8 Velazquez (3.18) 4 Wright (2.68). Still we probably win without Johnson & Pomeranz and just needed the Nate trade to give us 5 SP'ers.

Other seasons that seemed like near misses:

2003:  4 starters over 29 GS w Fossum & Suppan going for 24.

1986: 4 starters over 25 GS and 16 from Seaver, 13 Sellers and 10 Brown.

1978: 102 GS from 3 guys, 24 from Lee and 27 from Jim Wright + Ripley

1975: 114 GS from 3 guys, 20 from Cleveland, 16 Moret & 11 from Pole.

 

[mvp 78]

14 hours ago, drewski6 said:

If you can count 12 hitters better than Masa, Im okay with cutting him today.

Since Masa can't play CF, IF or C, you can just subtract 8 from 13 and see if there are 5 hitters better than him. If they have a punch and judy hitter at SS, Masa isn't taking his spot.

[mvp 78]

Abreu

Duran

Anthony

Romy - IL

Casas - IL

If Romy and Casas get healthy, there's no room for him. 

[Old Red]

13 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Abreu

Duran

Anthony

Romy - IL

Casas - IL

If Romy and Casas get healthy, there's no room for him. 

You’ve got 4 bench spots. Wong, and IKF will get two of them. Do you want to tie up one of the remaining spots with a backup DH like Masa?

[mvp 78]

7 minutes ago, Old Red said:

You’ve got 4 bench spots. Wong, and IKF will get two of them. Do you want to tie up one of the remaining spots with a backup DH like Masa?

I don't, no. I think it's clear that if Casas or Romy get healthy, Masa's time with the Sox will be compromised to a permanent end. 

[Old Red]

1 minute ago, mvp 78 said:

I don't, no. I think it's clear that if Casas or Romy get healthy, Masa's time with the Sox will be compromised to a permanent end. 

Even if Masa is on the team as it stands now with one of the outfielders being the DH I don’t see where he would get AB.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

Abreu

Duran

Anthony

Romy - IL

Casas - IL

If Romy and Casas get healthy, there's no room for him. 

I'd go so far as to say, if just one from Romy or Casas are healthy and looking fine, there is no room for Masa.

Where would he play? Who would sit?

The other way to make the roster work would be to trade someone ahead of him on the depth chart.

[Old Red]

8 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I'd go so far as to say, if just one from Romy or Casas are healthy and looking fine, there is no room for Masa.

Where would he play? Who would sit?

The other way to make the roster work would be to trade someone ahead of him on the depth chart.

Who are the Red Sox going to trade ahead of Masa. I know the talk has been the Red Sox have 4 outfielders, and one has to DH, but 3 of them 4 are LHB, and Abreu hasn’t proven he’s an everyday player. I don’t see any outfielders at this point being traded. I don’t think Romy being healthy, or not have any bearing on Masa, but more so on Mayer.

[moonslav59]

6 minutes ago, Old Red said:

Who are the Red Sox going to trade ahead of Masa. I know the talk has been the Red Sox have 4 outfielders, and one has to DH, but 3 of them 4 are LHB, and Abreu hasn’t proven he’s an everyday player. I don’t see any outfielders at this point being traded. I don’t think Romy being healthy, or not have any bearing on Masa, but more so on Mayer.

They won't trade anybody, now. Again, you confuse what I wish might happen with me thinking I think will happen.

The suggestion has been to trade Duran or maybe Abreu or Rafaela. It's only been brought up a thousand times over about 2 years.

No Duran at DH allows Masa a strong chance at winning the FT DH role and certainly a strong-side platoon role, as Romy can platoon with Mayer, when healthy.

Even this layout could get complicated if Casas returns and looks good.

[mvp 78]

3 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

They won't trade anybody, now. Again, you confuse what I wish might happen with me thinking I think will happen.

The suggestion has been to trade Duran or maybe Abreu or Rafaela. It's only been brought up a thousand times over about 2 years.

No Duran at DH allows Masa a strong chance at winning the FT DH role and certainly a strong-side platoon role, as Romy can platoon with Mayer, when healthy.

Even this layout could get complicated if Casas returns and looks good.

Rosenthal said the Astros could try to spring up the Paredes negotiations again. At this point, I'm not sure how far it would go. Sox already have Durbin, Story and Mayer. Are they willing to sit Mayer for the full year? Make Durbin a part time player? 

[Old Red]

2 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

They won't trade anybody, now. Again, you confuse what I wish might happen with me thinking I think will happen.

The suggestion has been to trade Duran or maybe Abreu or Rafaela. It's only been brought up a thousand times over about 2 years.

No Duran at DH allows Masa a strong chance at winning the FT DH role and certainly a strong-side platoon role, as Romy can platoon with Mayer, when healthy.

Even this layout could get complicated if Casas returns and looks good.

Wishing/thinking the results are both the same, so continuing to differentiate doesn’t change a thing. You trade an outfielder, and then are left with 3, and if one goes down what have you got as a replacement the highly suspect KC? Like I keep saying Abreu hasn’t proven he can hit LHP yet, and prove he’s a full time player as it is, so I don’t see the outfield as being so deep that it’s roster problem.

[Old Red]

4 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Rosenthal said the Astros could try to spring up the Paredes negotiations again. At this point, I'm not sure how far it would go. Sox already have Durbin, Story and Mayer. Are they willing to sit Mayer for the full year? Make Durbin a part time player? 

I don’t see that happening, but I’m not so sure the Red Sox are that confident at this point in Mayer either. Durbin is still a cheaper option also.

[moonslav59]

8 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Rosenthal said the Astros could try to spring up the Paredes negotiations again. At this point, I'm not sure how far it would go. Sox already have Durbin, Story and Mayer. Are they willing to sit Mayer for the full year? Make Durbin a part time player? 

What I'm hearing here in HOU is that HOU is demanding Duran or Abreu for Paredes and maybe one other piece- probably a prospect, as HOU is trying to keep their window open for 1-2 more years. They do not want to give up a 26 roster guy. 

I suggested King or Sousa (LH'd RP'er) and maybe Janek (a promising C prospect.) At this point, since we have Durbin, I wouldn't do it. Paredes may or may not be an upgrade on offense over Duran or Abreu. Abreu has twice the years of control.

Helping fix a roster logjam is a plus, but it's not worth doing just for the the sake of it.

Now, Duran & Mayer or Tolle & Mayer for KMarte gets me talking, again.

I seriously doubt anything goes down, but I'm shocked Paredes is still an Astro, so maybe something gives.

[drewski6]

16 hours ago, Old Red said:

I think the perception is that the Red Sox have 4 full time outfielders at present time, and that hasn’t been proven yet especially with Abreu, and if he’s not another LHB like Masa doesn’t help that situation where another RHB would, and that is why Masa can be in the way.

This is a good point, but the Romy injury buys us time because now we can bring Eaton AND Monasterio/Ward/Sogard (one of the latter into camp).  Im not sure if Eaton cooled down but hes kind of earned it, even his what .287 batting average last year? Granted, a "quiet" .287.

I think you have a good point, but I think that Eaton can be a righty outfielder if he stays hot.  Now when Romy comes back, we may not have a bench spot for him, and we may be forced to ditch one of Eaton/Monasterio/Wong/IKF/MASA...Or someone else might be hurt.  But if not, Masa may get jettisoned at that time, with Eaton taking his spot. But we'll see who is healthy, how we are playing, and make a decision then.  And it will also matter if Masa will agree to be sent down (but I dont think he would, and we may force to trade him like Hicks, and Moon will be thrilled).

[drewski6]

14 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

OF is a little different from 1B or C and some other positions, as there are 3 slots, and an injury to any one would put the 4th OF into a FT role. I get the need for a very good 4th OF'er, but between K Campbell, Masa and even Eaton  &Romy offer some decent depth.

The SP role is 5 and not 3 like the OF. The odds are greater one in 5 SP'ers gets hurt more than one in 3 OF'ers, and with the recent trend in SP'er injury, it's probably higher odds than 5:3. The 6th starter is very important, and I'd say more so than the 4th OF'er. Hell, the 7th starter might be close, especially if you have a decent 5th and 6th OF'er, as I think we do.

Some of my trade suggestions included trading from OF and SP'er depth, but it was to gain a major upgrade at a position of great need (2B or 3B PLUS a BIG BAT) like K Marte. I'd probably have traded Crawford or KC for Paredes, but HOU wants one of our LH'd OF'ers and maybe would not add enough to just a Paredes return.

I doubt any trade talks are still going on, but this will be the second year in a row we've started a season with a major OF surplus and a glaring weak spot or two left unattended or poorly attended.

That being said, I really like Durbin and think Mayer has some serious upside, but it's a bit too speculative for my liking.

What major weak spot is glaringly unattended?

[mvp 78]

19 minutes ago, Old Red said:

I don’t see that happening, but I’m not so sure the Red Sox are that confident at this point in Mayer either. Durbin is still a cheaper option also.

I think the Sox are confident in Mayer. They are just trying to really PUSH him this spring. 

[mvp 78]

13 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

What I'm hearing here in HOU is that HOU is demanding Duran or Abreu for Paredes and maybe one other piece- probably a prospect, as HOU is trying to keep their window open for 1-2 more years. They do not want to give up a 26 roster guy. 

If they wanted that, they should have done a deal before the Sox started speaking with the Brewers. 🫠

Sox don't really need to be in a hurry now. They have a full IF. They could carry Jarren/Anthony as LF/DH. HOU needs this trade more than the Sox do. 

[Old Red]

1 minute ago, mvp 78 said:

I think the Sox are confident in Mayer. They are just trying to really PUSH him this spring. 

It sounds like Cora is keeping a close eye on Mayer that’s for sure.

[mvp 78]

4 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

What major weak spot is glaringly unattended?

The back half of the bullpen. 

[Old Red]

1 minute ago, mvp 78 said:

If they wanted that, they should have done a deal before the Sox started speaking with the Brewers. 🫠

Sox don't really need to be in a hurry now. They have a full IF. They could carry Jarren/Anthony as LF/DH. HOU needs this trade more than the Sox do. 

I agree especially since there isn’t the need there was before the Durbin trade. Of course an injury, or two could change all of that.

[Old Red]

3 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

The back half of the bullpen. 

Especially if Chapman doesn’t come close to what he was last year, and, or Whit, or Slaten goes down.

[mvp 78]

3 minutes ago, Old Red said:

I agree especially since there isn’t the need there was before the Durbin trade. Of course an injury, or two could change all of that.

An injury or two changes things for any ballclub. An injury to Aaron Judge and the Yankees are a below .500 team.