A Realistic Look at the 2026 Red Sox: Part I

[drewski6]

15 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

He's making $18M this year and next.

If he get's DFA'd and picked up, and he likely would be, he'd be making $18M this year and next. The Sox pay about $17.2M a year and the new team $800K a year.

To me, it makes sense to see if someone will trade a bag of used balls for him + $14M a year. They pay $4M a year, and that comes off our tax line.

Then, JH can go out and spend like crazy at the deadline! LOL

TY this helps and I was stuck!  I understand that waiver claims go by inverse order and never a bidding war, but if claimed that team would be on the hook for the whole contract (next year too) so I figure thats a long shot.  More likely, hed pass through waviers at which point the red sox can try to get him to agree to take a minor league assignment vs free agency.

I realize now that if he selects free agency, its not going to make what he makes.  So what happens if he becomes a free agent and 2 teams want him and they both try to sign him.  Well the money offered would only become relevant if it exceeds 18m which wont happen.  So if hes a free agent and SD padres offer him 3m to Cincinat offering him 1.5.  If he choses the padres offer, then I think the redsox would be on the hook for 15m and padres 3 vs reds offer with redsox on hook for 16.5 and reds for 1.5.  So the money to him, doesnt change and hes not going to prioritize who willhelp the red sox the most (the team that just cut him). And thats why because the money is irrelevant whom he picks will probably most likely be based on location (west coast preferences), playing time, and maybe even going back to Japan.  But hes making 18m so the money wont really matter, TY moon.  

[Old Red]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

Campbell should be better eventually, but he hasn't shown it yet. He needs to actually start hitting in AAA before anyone thinks he can be better than anyone that has shown success at the big league level over a full season like Casas. 

Campbell is still a Suspect with a contract extension who needs more time in AAA. 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

10 minutes ago, Old Red said:

Campbell is still a Suspect with a contract extension who needs more time in AAA. 

I hate to say it, but he reminds of Duran when he first came up: an elite athlete trying to be a baseball player.

Learning how to hit at the pro level is only one aspect -- because as we've seen, the defense can only be honed with countless game reps. 

Example: KC playing CF last night vs. the PR WBC team -- man on 1st, single up the middle, and the baserunner took advantage of the sleeping centerfielder and hustled to 3rd. Campbell made a rushed throw high and off the mark.

A professional outfielder should be embarrassed and sprint after every base hit and position himself for a good throw for the rest of his career.

[drewski6]

14 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

.808 Anthony

.789 Contreras

.777 Abreu

.774 Casas

.767 Duran

.760 Yoshida

.745 Romy

.731 Rafaela

.729 Durbin

.715 Story

.715 Campbell

.703 Mayer

.686 Narvaez

.684 Wong

.682 Monasterio

.632 IKF

Garbage! Up and down!  The only one I feel here is accurate is Abreu (if he plays against some lefties but not all) and Mayer (if he plays against some lefties but not all).  I would think / hope both can do better if facing exclusively righties.

Cedanne might be accurate, and if so, thats a must start player and Ive been too hard on him.  I expected the offense to regress and Im starting to think now that hes over .700 which makes him unbenchable.  So thats another one that could be right.  Casas and Yoshida should have DNQ - as in most likely is the sample size will be small so it can be anywhere between .100 OPS and 1.100 OPS because small sample sizes fluctuate like that.

But Anthony, Contreras, Duran, Romy (do they think hes going to play against righties?) are too low. And Story prob too.  Regarding KC, its either going to be a DNQ (too small a sample size (does not qualify)) or higher, they arent going to give him 300 PA if his OPS is .715. Because .715 from a bat first player isnt forcing your way in.  Also KC (and even IKF btw) have had some good at bats this spring that ive seen.  I even think IKF is too low here.

[drewski6]

2 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Having 4 starting OFers and parking a DH on the bench with Casas rehabbing with no clear path to playing time if he's healthy is bad team building. 

What is having 9 capable starting pitchers? Depth?

[JoeBrady]

42 minutes ago, Old Red said:

Campbell is still a Suspect with a contract extension who needs more time in AAA. 

I'm still okay with him, but it is worth noting he has a 4/0 K/W in 14 ST ABs.  I think it would not be in our best interest to bring the kid up until we were close to certain he was not going back down again.

[mvp 78]

1 hour ago, notin said:

Right.  They should start cutting people.  

Yes, Masa.

[mvp 78]

1 hour ago, Old Red said:

But he didn’t even swing a bat at for quite awhile anywhere.

If he was playing in games, he would have overstayed his welcome on the IL rehab. 

[mvp 78]

54 minutes ago, Old Red said:

Campbell is still a Suspect with a contract extension who needs more time in AAA. 

Yeah, they jumped the gun on that extension. I hope it works out in favor of the Sox. If not, good for Kristian. 

[notin]

1 minute ago, mvp 78 said:

Yes, Masa.

Because who didn’t live a post-season lineup with Sogard, Gonzalez and Eaton?

Keeping Yoshida does make senses, despite my suspicion Breslow prefer not have him…

[drewski6]

2 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

He was fine swinging a bat. They sent him to AAA because he couldn't play OF. Like what???

What if Cedanne couldnt throw but was good enough to hit?  I understand that Yoshida is a bat first and Cedanne is a glove first, but the DH spot wasnt open.  What about a .680 catcher who is healthy enough to hit not catch?

Putting Yoshida on the IL was a stretch, but only because we perceive him as a DH - and Im not sure that screams foul to me.  I think the optics of putting him on the IL are worse than the actual act.  He wasnt signed to DH and DH wasnt open.  Im sure there were plenty of players throughout history that were on the IL despite being healthy enough to hit.  Just because Yoshida is a bad defender, Im not sure that makes the IL placement so much worse.

I do believe that if Devers was 100% healthy to start season, and if they went with him at 3b and Bregman at 2b and the dh spot was open (in like an alternative world) I do think that they would have probably had Masa start on the team as DH.  But do to things that had nothing to do with Masa (Devers/Bregman/Casas thing), the DH spot wasnt open, so Masas inability to throw did matter to some extent. So I would call the IL of him a stretch buy maybe stop short of calling it phantom/BS.

Masa shouldnt get extra protections because hes a bad defensive outfielder, imo. And it feels like part of the reason ppl think it was unfair to him to IL him was because he wasnt providing much glove value anyways but Im not sure I want to give Yoshida extra protections for that.  For contrast, if Abreu couldnt throw but could DH  nad he went on the IL, I dont think it would be viewed quite the same.  ANd theres a reason for that. Becasue you are losing Abreu glove/defense value.  But now we're providing more protections for Yoshida than Abreu becasuse with Abreu , the ability to play the field makes it a deeper loss, and that gives me pause

[notin]

13 hours ago, Duran Is The Man said:

his bWAR has been trending down pretty hard. and his OPS last year was .580.  ouch. i'm thinking more like .600.

His bWAR is trending down as his games trend down from 130 to 60 to 30.  You can’t get wins if you don’t play…

 

[drewski6]

2 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Campbell should be better eventually, but he hasn't shown it yet. He needs to actually start hitting in AAA before anyone thinks he can be better than anyone that has shown success at the big league level over a full season like Casas. 

Ive seen KC take some impressive swings this spring.  The last time Casas impressed me was years ago. Recency matters.

Right now KC > Casas

[mvp 78]

3 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

What if Cedanne couldnt throw but was good enough to hit?  I understand that Yoshida is a bat first and Cedanne is a glove first, but the DH spot wasnt open.  

Yeah, it's not an IL stint. Sorry. He's either healthy enough to play in games or he isn't. Masa played DH in ST then went on IL because he couldn't throw. He came off the IL to go play DH again. It should have been a MLBPA grievance IMO. 

[drewski6]

2 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

It's a bidding war after he clears waivers. If he can't be DFA'd based on his contract and is straight released, then teams could in theory bid against each other. Unlikely! If teams would pay more than the minimum, he would have been dealt.

TY, this helps.  Im not sure the bidding war would matter because of reasons I said.  For exmpale, if a team offer him 8m and he accepts after released, I think that would save the red sox 8m but yoshida would still only get 18. Or im wrong, but you are correct that its not relevant.  Because if a team is willing to pay him 8, it makes more sense to trade him.

I went down the rabbit hole to try to gauge if we can park him in AAA which I would rather do than flip him at this point in time for 4m of salary relief.  And Id rather keep him on the 26 at this point in time rather than flip him for salary relief.  But if its entering May and we're healthy and mayer, Kc, eaton, Montaserio, ward are all proving to be better ballplayers, at that point in time, it may make sense to trade out masa to clear a spot on the 26.

Regarding parking him in aaa at that point (may) if we can, sure.  Put I feel like he put that clause in teh contract for a reason.  And that reason was if this doesnt work out, i get to take my bag and go back to japan, so i think most likely if we wanted to kick him off 26 man roster in may, its either trade him or release him and in which case hes prob going back to japan (and still getting the 18m this year and next).  I guess when I think about it, he put that in there for a reason (cant send me to AAA) and that reason is most likely because "Id rather be in japan than AAA"

[mvp 78]

4 minutes ago, notin said:

His bWAR is trending down as his games trend down from 130 to 60 to 30.  You can’t get wins if you don’t play…

 

But he hit really bad in April 2026 when he always hits poorly! That means he should stink forever going forward. 

My point with Casas has always been that it depends on how he returns from his injury. If he is not hampered by his injury, he can get back to '23 Casas. If he has an issue with his legs, it could seriously alter his career going forward as it would zap his power.

Until we see him in games, it's hard to say what he'll do. Tools wise, I'd take him above a lot of other hitters on this team.

[drewski6]

2 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Yeah, it's not an IL stint. Sorry. He's either healthy enough to play in games or he isn't. Masa played DH in ST then went on IL because he couldn't throw. He came off the IL to go play DH again. It should have been a MLBPA grievance IMO. 

I wonder why it wasnt, and im glad you brought that up.  Maybe hes honorable and was like listen guys, i havent lived up to my contract to date and im ashamed so the last thing im going to do is file a grievance against the team thats been overpaying me.  But Im also not sure if its up to Yoshida or if grievances can be filed on his behalf.  I wonder if the fact that hes minority made MLBPA slightly less likely to take his case. Hope not.

[mvp 78]

6 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Ive seen KC take some impressive swings this spring.  The last time Casas impressed me was years ago. Recency matters.

Right now KC > Casas

The last time Campbell pulled a ball was 2024, about the same time Casas was productive. 

[Old Red]

4 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

What if Cedanne couldnt throw but was good enough to hit?  I understand that Yoshida is a bat first and Cedanne is a glove first, but the DH spot wasnt open.  What about a .680 catcher who is healthy enough to hit not catch?

Putting Yoshida on the IL was a stretch, but only because we perceive him as a DH - and Im not sure that screams foul to me.  I think the optics of putting him on the IL are worse than the actual act.  He wasnt signed to DH and DH wasnt open.  Im sure there were plenty of players throughout history that were on the IL despite being healthy enough to hit.  Just because Yoshida is a bad defender, Im not sure that makes the IL placement so much worse.

I do believe that if Devers was 100% healthy to start season, and if they went with him at 3b and Bregman at 2b and the dh spot was open (in like an alternative world) I do think that they would have probably had Masa start on the team as DH.  But do to things that had nothing to do with Masa (Devers/Bregman/Casas thing), the DH spot wasnt open, so Masas inability to throw did matter to some extent. So I would call the IL of him a stretch buy maybe stop short of calling it phantom/BS.

Masa shouldnt get extra protections because hes a bad defensive outfielder, imo. And it feels like part of the reason ppl think it was unfair to him to IL him was because he wasnt providing much glove value anyways but Im not sure I want to give Yoshida extra protections for that.  For contrast, if Abreu couldnt throw but could DH  nad he went on the IL, I dont think it would be viewed quite the same.  ANd theres a reason for that. Becasue you are losing Abreu glove/defense value.  But now we're providing more protections for Yoshida than Abreu becasuse with Abreu , the ability to play the field makes it a deeper loss, and that gives me pause

Huh? Masa was signed at the time, because the Red Sox were in need of outfielders, and Bloom for some reason thought Masa would be a good fit. He wasn’t, and isn’t a good fit now. I don’t know how this all ends up, but if he’s on the opening 26 with the Red Sox it more about that $18M contract than anything else.

[mvp 78]

2 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

I went down the rabbit hole to try to gauge if we can park him in AAA 

He has MiLB options, but it depends on the wording of his contract. We don't know for sure TBH. 

[Old Red]

5 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Yeah, it's not an IL stint. Sorry. He's either healthy enough to play in games or he isn't. Masa played DH in ST then went on IL because he couldn't throw. He came off the IL to go play DH again. It should have been a MLBPA grievance IMO. 

Bingo!

[drewski6]

1 hour ago, Old Red said:

Agree 100%. Having a backup DH only taking up a bench spot isn’t what’s best for the team.

But it may be for now

[mvp 78]

1 minute ago, Old Red said:

Huh? Masa was signed at the time, because the Red Sox were in need of outfielders, and Bloom for some reason thought Masa would be a good fit. He wasn’t, and isn’t a good fit now. I don’t know how this all ends up, but if he’s on the opening 26 with the Red Sox it more about that $18M contract than anything else.

Imagine if they only signed him for 3 years instead of 5... ☺️

[drewski6]

21 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

I'm still okay with him, but it is worth noting he has a 4/0 K/W in 14 ST ABs.  I think it would not be in our best interest to bring the kid up until we were close to certain he was not going back down again.

Ive seen some good swings from him, and I dont like some of these obp and obp derivative stats.

[Old Red]

13 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Yeah, they jumped the gun on that extension. I hope it works out in favor of the Sox. If not, good for Kristian. 

The Red Sox didn’t help matters either by trying to make Campbell into a super utility guy who co could play all over the field, because that’s how things are done.

[drewski6]

5 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

The last time Campbell pulled a ball was 2024, about the same time Casas was productive. 

Well considering multiple people are telling me this, maybe he just had a couple good swings in the few games ive seen and its throwing off my opinion, which Im starting to thikn is probable and he hasnt been swinging it well this season, just maybe in like 3 of the 5 at-bats ive seen.  Ive seen him get robbed of a base hit on 2 occasions this spring, and i may be putting too much into that.

[drewski6]

7 minutes ago, Old Red said:

Huh? Masa was signed at the time, because the Red Sox were in need of outfielders, and Bloom for some reason thought Masa would be a good fit. He wasn’t, and isn’t a good fit now. I don’t know how this all ends up, but if he’s on the opening 26 with the Red Sox it more about that $18M contract than anything else.

I agree, but ty (sincerely) for the "more than anything else" - thats the level of nuance I appreciate.

I can agree with this.  But I would add that while I agree the 18m is the primary reason, a secondary reason that shouldnt be dismissed is that he cnat be sent down.  A lot of times team send down the player who they can send down (i.e. has options remaining).  Like if a prospect slightly outplayed a vet, but you cant send that vet down and you are not sure which one will be the guy come playoffs, you send down the kid to buy yourself time.

Postpone decisions and hoard talent.  Obviously, its case by case - so you dont always send down the player who you can, but you take into account who you can send down.  If Anthony was out of options last year, he would have broke with the big club.

[Old Red]

5 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

But it may be for now

Especially not now. I keep hearing how the Red Sox have four outfielders, but Abreu hasn’t proven he can be full time yet, and a RHB may be needed, which Masa is not.

[drewski6]

10 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

He has MiLB options, but it depends on the wording of his contract. We don't know for sure TBH. 

I will accept this, I am satisfied with the help I received from you and moon on trying to figure it out.

[drewski6]

7 minutes ago, Old Red said:

The Red Sox didn’t help matters either by trying to make Campbell into a super utility guy who co could play all over the field, because that’s how things are done.

I disagree with this. The more positions he can play, the more likely he is to find a spot on the team. I dont think they permanently ruined his ability to play 2b by playing him in the of 15 games or ruined his ability to play of by playing him at 2b 15 games.  He'll find his level defensively.